Latest News
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Trump may raise auto tariffs soon to increase US production
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned on Thursday that he could soon increase auto tariffs. He argued that this would encourage automakers to accelerate U.S. investment. Trump told a White House audience that he might increase the tariffs in the near future. "The higher the tariff, the more likely they are to build a factory here." The White House has been pressed by automakers to lower the 25% tariffs Trump placed on automobiles. Detroit Three automakers criticised a deal which would reduce tariffs on British cars but not those produced in Canada or Mexico. Trump cited a number of recent announcements, including GM's announcement this week that they plan to invest $4 billion into three U.S. factories and shift some SUV production out of Mexico. He also mentioned a $21 Billion Hyundai Investment announced in March, including a new U.S. Steel Plant. Trump stated that "they wouldn't even have invested a penny if there weren't tariffs. This includes the manufacturing of American steel which is doing well." Mexico announced last month that the average tariff on cars exported from Mexico to the U.S. would be 15% and not 25%, because Washington offers automakers discounts for the value U.S.-made content. Tariffs are putting increasing pressure on automakers' costs. Ford Motor Company and Subaru of America raised prices on certain models in recent weeks due to increased costs from Trump's Tariffs. Ford estimated that tariffs would cost them $1.5 billion over the course of the year. GM reported last month that it has a current exposure to tariffs of between $4 and $5 billion. This includes about $2 billion for the cheaper vehicles GM imports, which are made in South Korea. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio, Jeff Mason, and David Shepardson)
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Trump unhappy with recent rise in oil price
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, expressed his frustration Thursday over rising oil prices amid concerns about supply due to a potential conflict in Middle East. The global and U.S. prices of oil both rose by more than 4% to their highest level since early April on Wednesday before dropping a little on Thursday. Trump stated at a White House gathering that he did not like the fact that oil prices had risen a bit in the past few days. "It will keep going down, right?" We have the inflation under control. Prices rose on news that the U.S. is moving personnel out of the Middle East in preparation for talks with Iran about its nuclear-related activities. Trump claimed that the U.S. is moving personnel to the Middle East because it "could become a dangerous area". He said that the U.S. wouldn't allow Iran to possess a nuclear device. Tehran claims that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. The increased tensions with Iran have raised the possibility of oil supply disruption. Both sides will meet on Sunday.
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Sources say that a decision on the sale of oil refiner Italiana Petroli is expected by end-June.
Italiana Petroli is in negotiations with three parties interested in purchasing the oil refinery and is expected to make a decision around the end this month on the possible 3 billion euro deal ($3.5 billion). Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed that. Sources previously stated that Gunvor, the global commodity trader, State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, (SOCAR), and the Abu Dhabi-based Bin Butti Group had all made binding offers to purchase 100% of the privately held group. Two sources said that industrial groups from the Middle East had contacted the Italian company in order to express their interest, should the ongoing negotiations fail and the seller decide to reopen the process. The Brachetti-Peretti family is asking for around 3 billion euro, according to sources. Italiana Petroli e Gunvor refused to comment. SOCAR Group and Bin Butti Group did not respond to requests for comment. End-December, the refinery had a net cash balance of 408 millions euros. UniCredit is advising the group. It has a total refinery capacity of about 200,000 barrels a day. The group also operates a network with 4,600 fuel stations. The company increased its fuel storage and refining capacity when it acquired Exxon Mobil Italy assets in late 2023. The company currently owns an Ancona refinery, in eastern Italy, the SARPOM refinery, in Trecate, in the north, and a tolling agreement for the Alma refinery, in Ravenna in the north-east. Trecate produces different types of fuels, including aviation propellants, while the two other plants produce bitumen. Intesa Sanpaolo IMI CIB, an Italian company, advises SOCAR. Rothschild works with Gunvor. (1 euro = 0.8633 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Topra Chopra; Additional reporting by Nailia Bakirova, Baku)
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Germany's Bund yield falls to its lowest level since May due to safe-haven flows
Germany's 10-year bond yield fell to a six-week-low on Thursday, as safe-haven flows benefited from market anxiety over trade and tensions with the Middle East. This came a day following soft U.S. Inflation numbers. Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund yield for the Euro zone was almost 5 basis points lower, at 2,486%. It has pared some of its declines since it dipped to its lowest level since early May, at 2.469%. . Yields dropped around the globe on Wednesday, after data showed that U.S. consumer price increases were lower than expected in May due to cheaper petrol and a healthy appetite for U.S. Treasuries at auction. The bond rally on Thursday was supported by a global tone of risk-off after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the United States will send letters outlining terms of trade agreements to dozens countries in one to two week, which they can accept or reject. Separately Trump stated that U.S. personnel was being relocated out of the Middle East "because it could be a very dangerous place". Stocks fell and safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and other currencies rose. The U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall on Thursday after U.S. weekly claims for unemployment and producer prices data. They were also on course to reach a new low. The euro zone bonds barely responded to the fourth consecutive day of declines. U.S. data released on Thursday revealed that producer prices in May rose 2.6% from the previous year, which was in line with expectations. The analysts at J.P. Morgan warned clients that the Fed will be on high alert for the possibility of future tariffs being passed through to higher prices. We continue to watch for an increase in the consumer price to peak during summer months. Investors in Europe were watching European Central Bank speakers to determine if the rate cut last week was the final one in this cycle. This is despite the ECB's forecast that inflation will fall below the 2% target in 2019. Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board member, said that the interest rates are in a good place because inflation will likely return to its target over the medium-term. Gediminas Simkus, a Lithuanian policymaker, said that interest rates could need to be further lowered this year due to the risk of undershoot. The markets are pricing in another rate cut for this year. The other euro zone bonds moved largely in line with benchmark. Italy's 10-year bond yield fell 4 basis points to 3.42%. Germany's two-year interest rate sensitive yield fell 3 basis points to 1.82%. (Reporting and editing by Alun Pasquini and Linda Pasquini, Kirsty Donovan, Maju Samuel and Kate Mayberry)
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Temasek, BlackRock, and MGX join forces to create AI infrastructure
According to BlackRock's Thursday investor day presentation, Temasek is part of a consortium backed Microsoft, BlackRock, and the tech investment company MGX, which aims to expand and invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Slides showed that the Singapore state investment firm has joined AI Infrastructure Partnership. This group also includes BlackRock Global Infrastructure Partners. AIP was formed in September, with the goal of investing more than $30 billion initially in AI-related project. It is one of world's biggest efforts to invest data centres and energy infrastructure needed to power AI apps such as ChatGPT. The aim is to mobilize up to 100 billion dollars, including debt financing, for these investments. They will be focused on the United States. Temasek joins AIP after Kuwait Investment Authority, which joined earlier in June. Kuwait's sovereign wealth fund was the first investor in the consortium who did not have a founding role. Other partners include Elon Musk, Nvidia, and xAI. Ravi Lambah is Temasek’s head of strategic Initiatives. In an email, he said: "Temasek’s investment in AI Infrastructure Partnership reflects Temasek’s focus on the major shifts and trends in the future." He added that "AI could be the most impactful and transformative technology for all businesses and sectors." Temasek has not disclosed financial details about the investment. According to its website, the global investment company's net portfolio had a value of S$389bn ($304bn) by March 31, 2024.
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White House reviews EPA's proposal for biofuel blend obligation
The proposal will impact the oil and biofuels industries as well as major lobbying power. Sources say that the EPA's proposal is expected to cover 2026-2027. Sources: White House is considering a plan to deal with the backlog of requests for refinery exemptions By Stephanie Kelly and Jarrett Renshaw NEW YORK - According to the Office of Management and Budget's website, the White House completed its review of a proposed rule regarding U.S. Biofuel Blending Obligations and has returned it to the Environmental Protection Agency to be further acted upon. Oil and biofuels industries, two major Washington lobbying forces, eagerly awaited the release of this proposal. It will be one of the very first decisions that the Trump administration will make regarding federal biofuel policies. This will provide insight as to whether or not President Donald Trump will support the biofuel industry during his tenure, which at times has been at odds against oil companies. According to U.S. laws, oil refiners are required to blend billions gallons worth of biofuels in the nation's fuel mixture, or purchase tradable credit from those who do. If they can show that the obligations would harm them, small refiners may be able to request exemptions. Previously reported, the EPA will release a proposal covering both 2026-2027. Participants in the industry will focus on proposed mandates to blend biomass-based diesel, because some felt that previous obligations were not high enough. The American Petroleum Institute, a U.S. biofuels coalition, has urged the EPA to propose federal mandates of 5.25 billion gallons for biomass diesel blending in 2026. This would be a significant rise from previous mandates. The coalition, which brought together some oil and biofuels groups in an historically unprecedented move, recommended that the total federal mandate for biofuel blend mandates be 25 billion gallons by 2026. The EPA has set biomass-based fuel mandates at 3.35 billion gallons for 2025. The industry is also waiting for an indication of how the EPA plans to address the outstanding requests by small refineries seeking exemptions from the mandates. Sources have previously stated that the White House is considering a plan to reduce a backlog of requests. This could include approving current applications and asking for input from industry on older ones. There are currently more than 160 requests for exemptions, which could be worth billions of dollars in tradable credit. (Reporting and editing by Margueritachoy, Jarrett Renshaw and Stephanie Kelly)
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The EU's leading legislator on sustainability laws suggests more cuts
The European Union needs to further reduce the number of businesses subject to its corporate sustainability and environmental rules, said the European Parliament Member leading the negotiations on these policies on Thursday. The European Commission announced in February a "simplification package" that would allow European companies to compete more effectively with their foreign competitors by reducing the reporting requirements and obligations for sustainability. According to Swedish center-right legislator Jorgen Warborn who has proposed amendments that would further scale back laws to cover only companies with at least 3,000 employees and a turnover of over 450 millions euros ($521million) he believes these proposals do not go far. The Commission's proposal would exempt all companies with less than 1,000 employees. This is already a significant cut of more than 80% from the approximately 50,000 companies that are currently covered by green reporting regulations. Around 6,000 companies in the EU have more than 1,000 workers. "Europe has fallen behind the U.S.A. and China in global competition for competitiveness. "I'm going into this process with an ambition that is clear: I want to reduce costs for business and go beyond the Commission in terms of simplification," Warborn stated on Thursday. The European Parliament will then negotiate his draft proposal, where other legislators can offer their own amendments. In the next few months, the Parliament will reach an agreement with EU members on the final changes. Warborn is a member of a group of lawmakers from the European People's Party, which leans centre-right. Some right-wingers want to abolish the policies completely, while Socialists and Greens are pledging to keep them. Both the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the French President Emmanuel Macron have demanded that the EU abolish the supply chain legislation. Investors and activists have reacted negatively to the move back on ESG regulations. They claim that it undermines corporate accountability, and makes it harder for the bloc to attract investments in order to meet climate goals. Warborn says his changes won't weaken Europe’s sustainability standards but will instead free up resources for companies to invest in innovation. ($1 = 0.8633 euro) (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Kate Abnett)
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US CPC expects ENSO neutral weather conditions in June and August.
The United States Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions will be likely in summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere, with an 82% chance of occurring in June-August. ENSO neutral conditions could continue into winter 2025-2026. However, confidence is lower. There's a 48% chance for neutral, and a 41% chance for La Nina. Why it's important La Nina is a part of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a climatic cycle that affects the water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which increases the risk of droughts and floods. This can have an impact on crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to better weather and possibly higher crop yields. CONTEXT The Japanese weather bureau stated on Tuesday that there is a 60% probability of normal weather conditions continuing into autumn. The National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast above-normal activity for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the 2025 season. KEY QUOTES "While ENSO neutrality will have some benefits, the crops will not produce as much as they would under a La Nina setup," Tyler Roys, Senior Forecaster, Lead European at AccuWeather. While the United States has seen a good amount of rainfall in spring, any dry spells that occur in conjunction with high temperatures in July and August could ruin what would otherwise be a great crop year. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru)
Analysts' reactions to the US-China Trade Agreement
U.S. officials and Chinese officials announced that they had reached an agreement on a framework for re-establishing their trade truce and removing China's restrictions on exports of rare earths. However, there was little indication that the long-standing trade disputes would be resolved.
Li Chenggang, Vice Minister of Commerce in China, said that the two teams agreed to implement their Geneva consensus. They would then take the framework agreed upon back to their respective leaders.
An official at the White House said that the agreement allows the U.S. a tariff of 55% on imported Chinese products. The tariff includes a baseline "reciprocal tariff" of 10%, a fentanyl-trafficking tariff of 20% and a 25 percent tariff that reflects existing tariffs. China would impose a tariff of 10% on U.S. imported goods.
MARKET REACTION:
S&P 500 was up 0.1% as investors waited for more details and to see if the decision would be implemented.
QUOTES:
GENE GOLDMAN IS THE CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER FOR CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT IN EL SEGUNDO CA.
The equity markets breathed out a sigh after hearing about a possible US-China deal. This news should be taken with caution. While President Trump announced that the imports of Chinese goods would increase from 30% to 50% and Chinese rare-earths exports could resume, little is known about what China will get in return. "I doubt that this is a one way deal, and therefore the market caution observed overnight."
SAM STOVALL IS THE CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT CFRA RESEARCH IN ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA.
"We have seen a relatively tepid reaction to news of the 'deal' made with China. To me, that indicates indifference. The market is saying, ok, you've agreed to keep talking and have set up a structure for future discussions, but there hasn't been anything really significant resolved. Tell me something I should know. We all know it won't be good if there isn't a comprehensive solution. We would have to buy our dolls elsewhere, and that will cost more.
The market has struggled to hold on to its gains despite better than expected inflation figures today. I can only assume that the people wanted to hear more about the China negotiations. Investors may have sold because they thought we were overbought.
OLIVER PURSCHE SENIOR VICE-PRESIDENT, ADVISOR WEALTHSPIRE ADVISE, WESTPORT CONNECTICUT
The market hasn't reacted to the deal yet because we haven’t seen details. The devil lies in the details, as with most things. Another big news item is that the U.S. has a framework in place for future discussions with China, which contradicts a previous statement that it was a done deal.
The report on inflation this morning, although softer than expected was due to lower energy prices, and also an indication of further slowdowns in the U.S. economy.
ADAM BUTTON, CHIROP CURRENCY ANATOMIST, FOREXLIVE TORONTO
Trump certainly has tried to spin the news positively. "Obviously, this is good news. China and the U.S. reached an agreement. It's unclear what the U.S. is doing and what China wants to achieve. Trump made a hint at this when he said he wanted to expand China's trade. The U.S.-China negotiations have in some ways raised more questions than they have answered. Will this tariff rate stick? What are the U.S. & China working on?
The ultimate conclusion about China is that it's not getting worse. So, that's good. "We probably built in some expectation of maybe material progress."
JOHN PRAVEEN MANAGING DIRECTOR PALEO LEON PRINCETON NJ
"The worst case scenario is likely behind us. Both sides are trying to save face. The U.S. thought the issue of rare earths was important. They reached an agreement. It is a question of whether or not it will be implemented. "The fact that they have an agreement at all is likely to be a relief for market.
Both sides got something. It's important that the situation is de-escalating. It's likely a relief to the markets."
We'll need to wait to see if the tariffs are further reduced. After the dust settles, it'll probably be a bit lower because this tariff level will likely cause inflationary pain to the consumer."
When Trump and Xi get together, they will probably reduce it further. "You need to keep something aside for the meeting."
PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK:
"That is good news, of course. It's still a while away, and both Trump and Xi have to ratify it, but it's a given that this will happen. This is good news, and it eases concerns... But the real deal is that there's an agreement which would allow China to resume exports of rare-earth products, something I believe was crucial to this."
ROBERT PAVLIK SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, DAKOTAWEALTH, FAIRFIELD CONNECTICUT
It's a positive headline at least. It's positive that both countries are working together to exchange technology for rare-earth materials. We'll wait to see if Xi approves it, and what Trump says."
WASIF LATIF, PRESIDENT, AND CHIEF INVESTOR, SARMAYA PARTNERS PRINCETON NEW JERSEY
"It is becoming clearer that the initial high tariffs and large scales of tariffs were a negotiation tactic. When you saw the cards that each side brought to the table, China with rare earths and the US with other trade-related chips including the impact on students here at universities, you could see how they both wanted to reach an agreement. This is good news for investors.
"However the market already anticipated this because the rally we saw at the low tariffs was already baking in a better result than what was initially being put out. The futures started to fall when the agreement was announced in the early hours of this morning. It felt more like a situation of selling the news than a market impact, because many of the expected benefits were already backed in.
The CPI is currently the news that moves markets. It will be interesting to observe the long-term trade impact of tariffs. Tariffs have been a hot topic for many years. Some people say they are inflationary, while others claim it is deflationary. "But I think that the truth is somewhere between.
CHRIS WESTON HEAD OF RESEARCH PEPPERSTONE MELBOURNE
The devil is in the detail, but the lack reaction indicates that this outcome was fully expected.
The Geneva agreement is a good thing, but the fact that there was no reaction on S&P500 Futures and only small movements in CNH and AUD suggests the outcome was expected. Details matter, particularly the amount of rare earths going to the US and the freedom of US chips to go East. But for now, as long as headlines about the talks between both parties are positive, risk assets will be supported.
LIN GENGWEI is the co-founder and CEO of RAIN TREE PARTNERS in Singapore.
Both sides are willing and under pressure to reach an accord. The Sino-U.S. Rivalry will continue to persist despite the temporary success of these talks.
The U.S. may ease restrictions on chip exports from China in response to both pressures from Beijing and the domestic semiconductor industry.
MARK DONG, CO-FOUNDER OF MINORITY ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG:
This is good news for the market. There's now a bottom-line that neither side will cross.
Both sides will work to reduce the trade deficit.
ZENG WENKAI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SHENGQI ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG:
The market probably anticipated this -- Trump always chickens out (TACO).
"Look at the way countries negotiate with the U.S. today; it is no longer how Vietnam did things in the early days. Japan and South Korea have taken a more aggressive stance. "Kneeling is not the answer. It only leads to more bullying."
CHARU CHANANA CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST SAXO SINGAPORE
The markets will welcome the change in tone, from confrontation to cooperation. We're still not out of danger, even though there are no more meetings planned. Next, Trump and Xi must endorse and enforce the framework.
It's important to not confuse this tactical deescalation with a complete reversal in strategic decoupling. The competition in technology, supply chain, and national security is still very strong. There will always be new issues, and it is the implementation of this "old deal" that will determine how far we go.
TAN XIAOYUN IS THE FOUNDING PARTNER FOR ZONSO, GUANGDONG.
"Talks will proceed under the framework agreed upon, and I think the U.S. is more willing to compromise than China in order to reach an agreement."
"Under current circumstances, U.S. faces more pressing issues, while the Chinese have more breathing room. China used to be defensive but now is offensive by leveraging rare earths and market access. This marks a shift in power and strength."
MICHAEL McCARTHY, CHIEF OFFICER MOOMOO AUSTRALIA SYDNEY
"I will be watching how bonds trade on this day in light of it." Currency markets seem to be taking this in stride and equity markets have returned to their all-time highs.
Since weeks, the market has been anticipating this deal. It will be positive for the market, as the dollar will weaken and equities will rise, but this is not a major change.
CAROL KONG CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BBANK OF AUSTRALIAN, SYDNEY
"I believe in this environment...any hints of progress on a possible trade agreement will be beneficial for markets.
"It's going to be hard for both sides and take a very long time before they can reach a comprehensive agreement." This type of comprehensive agreement usually takes years to reach, so I am skeptical that the framework agreed upon at the London meeting will be comprehensive. "Tensions may have de-escalated temporarily, but will escalate in the coming months."
RAY ATTRILL HEAD OF FOREX STRATEGY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK SYDNEY
It's too early to declare that a new US-China trading agreement is imminent. We've heard a lot of positive things about agreements, but we've not seen any real progress.
"Our view remains that, whatever is agreed upon in the next few weeks and months - the baseline view - is that the global tariff situation will be far worse than it was before Trump became president. We'll still have a tariff climate we believe is detrimental to global growth."
TONY SYCAMORE MARKET ANALYST IG SYDNEY
If we maintain the terms of the Geneva Agreement we will see US tariffs for Chinese goods remaining at 30% for some time, and Chinese tariffs for US goods remaining at 10%. This is a reduction from 145% and 125%, respectively. This would be amazing.
"I think that was the consensus of the market... now people are trying to decide whether they want to buy or sell the US Dollar and I believe that reflects a little bit of this indecision.
The U.S. equity market is holding up at the moment because of this. I still think they are overcooked and need to pullback. "It's been an incredible run, and we're pushing up against the records from February. For me, it makes sense that they take a break."
DAVID CHAO, GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST, ASIA PACIFIC, INVESCO, HONG KONG:
"Recent headlines have shown that both the US and China are ready to reach a deal. This is good news for both markets and policymakers. We believe that cooler heads will prevail and the path has been set for a closer dialogue between top leaders in both countries.
The news that the US and China may have reached a deal over rare earths, semiconductors, or jet engine parts is a good indicator that we are past peak tariff uncertainty. (Compiled by Global Finance & Markets Breaking News)
(source: Reuters)