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Short-covering of oil prices has pushed up the price, but concerns about tariffs persist
Investors took advantage of Tuesday's loss to cover their short positions. However, concerns remain about economic headwinds resulting from tariffs and U.S. policy. Brent crude futures increased 51 cents or 0.8% to $66.77 per barrel at 0045 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was at $63.59 per barrel, up by 51 cents and 0.8%. The benchmarks fell more than 2% each on Monday, as signs of progress were seen in the nuclear agreement talks between Iran and the U.S. This helped ease concerns about supply. Hiroyuki Kikukawa is the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment. "However concerns about a possible recession driven by the Tariff War persist," he said. He predicted that WTI would likely trade between $55 and $65 for the moment amid ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, repeated on Monday his criticisms of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. He also said that the U.S. economic growth could be slowed if interest rates are not immediately lowered. His comments about Powell fueled concerns about the Fed's ability to set monetary policy independently and the outlook for U.S. investments. On Monday, the dollar index and major U.S. stock indices fell to their lowest levels in three years. Kikukawa stated that "the growing uncertainty around U.S.monetary policy will negatively impact financial markets and broader economies, raising fears of a possible decline in crude oil consumption." Investors surveyed on April 17 believed that the tariff policy would cause a significant slowdown of the U.S. economic this year and the following, with a median probability for recession in the coming 12 months nearing 50%. The U.S. has the largest oil consumption in the world. According to documents obtained by the. A preliminary poll conducted on Monday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stocks were likely to have declined last week. However, distillate inventories are expected to be higher, according to the American Petroleum Institute's and Energy Information Administration's weekly reports. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi)
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US judge confirms Red Tree as the starting bid for Citgo parent's auction
According to a court document, a U.S. Federal judge confirmed on Monday that a $3.7billion offer made by Red Tree Investments, an affiliate of Contrarian Funds to pay bondholders and creditors in an auction for shares of the parent company of Venezuelan-owned refiner Citgo Petroleum was the starting bid. The offer, which had been recommended by a court officer overseeing the auction, unleashed a battle among 16 creditors seeking to cash proceeds from the auction, with some supporting the bid because it includes a payment agreement with holders of a bond issued by Citgo's ultimate parent, Caracas-headquartered PDVSA, and others saying it was too low. A consortium led miner Gold Reserve had submitted a $7.1 Billion proposal. Rival bid Other creditors and lawyers representing Venezuela filed objections against Red Tree's bid. These were overruled U.S. district judge Leonard Stark. Stark's decision stated that "Red Tree’s bid represents the best balance between the evaluation criteria which can be summarized as the price and the certainty of closing", adding that this offer should encourage competitiveness. The judge asked Robert Pincus, the court officer, to suggest a time period to top off Red Tree’s offer. This is expected to result in a winning bid for the auction whose final hearing will be held in July. Pincus' final bid recommendation was to be "more focused on price, and less on certainty", as instructed by the Judge. A previous round of bidding last year saw most creditors reject a $7.3billion offer from an affiliate hedge fund Elliott Investment Management because it included conditions. Red Tree's selection as the stalking horse for this round is expected to encourage other bidders to offer up to $3 billion in compensation to holders of PDVSA 2020 bonds that were collateralized by Citgo equity. Citgo is valued between $11 billion to $13 billion. The final bids in the auction are expected to be below $8 billion. The more money paid to bondholders will leave less to pay other creditors. These include foreign oil companies, mining companies, and industrial conglomerates, whose Venezuelan assets have been expropriated.
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ADM closes soybean processing plant at Kershaw, South Carolina
Grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland will permanently close its soybean processing plant in Kershaw, South Carolina, later this spring as part of a cost-cutting and consolidation push announced earlier this year, the company confirmed to on Monday. ADM has cut jobs and downsized some operations ever since February, when it announced that it would be cutting costs by $500 to $700 millions over three to five year. Dane Lisser, ADM's spokesperson, said: "After exploring many alternatives, we have determined that our Kershaw crushing plant does not align with our future operating needs." Still reeling from a scandal that sent the stock price of the company plummeting last year, the company is now facing tough headwinds due to rising trade tensions with key markets, including China, which is a major soybean importer. According to sources in the industry, Kershaw will be closing as the first U.S. soya processing plant after a multi-year expansion of industry-wide facilities amid an escalating demand for vegetable oil from biofuels manufacturers. The biofuel sector, however, has recently slowed down production because of the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy on biofuels and the possibility of a worsening trading war. According to industry sources, the Kershaw plant is one of the smaller soy processing plants operated by ADM. It has the capacity to crush up to 50,000 bushels per day. ADM has said that it will assist Kershaw employees in finding new jobs, and offer financial severance to those who choose to leave the company. However, the number of affected workers was not disclosed. According to South Carolina Department of Commerce statistics, the Kershaw plant employed 11 to 50 workers.
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Prosecutors say that a Russian attack killed one person in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
According to local prosecutors, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine's Kharkiv region in the northeast, Monday. One person was killed in a village near the border. According to a report posted on Telegram, which was released after a ceasefire of 30 hours announced by Moscow for Easter had expired, a Russian drone killed a man riding a scooter in Ivashki. The statement added that an artillery attack by the Russians hit a private home area in Kupiansk. This is a place where Russian military activity has increased in recent months. Kupiansk, which was captured by Ukrainian forces later in that year in a massive counter-offensive after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, was initially occupied by Russian troops. At least once, Russian forces entered the city briefly. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Oleksandr Kozoukhar, Ron Popeski)
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US Antimony restarts Mexico Smelter Plant after Over a Year
United States Antimony Corp announced on Monday that it had restarted operations in its Madero plant in Mexico. This comes more than a year since the miner of critical minerals stopped operating in Latin America. Why it's important China has banned the export of critical minerals such as gallium, antimony and germanium to the United States. This is part of a escalating tech and trade war between two major economies. China is expected to produce almost half the world's supply of antimony by 2023. Prices of the mineral are soaring as a result of China's heavy export restrictions. This has disrupted global supply chains. U.S. president Donald Trump also pushed to increase domestic production of important minerals, such as antimony to counter China's near-total control in the sector. Minerals are widely used to make ammunition, infrared weapons, night-vision goggles and nuclear weapons, as well batteries and photovoltaic devices. CONTEXT United States Antimony announced in March of last year that it would cease all operations in Latin America, and sell its Mexican subsidiary. This decision was taken after a review of financial performance, negative cash flow of the unit and low prices of antimony. What's Next? The company announced that it had begun processing the antimony ore purchased from international sources in the Madero Smelter. Next week, the second and third shipments will also arrive at the facility. U.S. Antimony stated that it plans to produce approximately 200 tons of antimony each month at the Madero Smelter by the end of 2025. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava from Bengaluru)
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The Russian Economy Ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%
According to documents obtained by, the Russian economy ministry's forecast for the average Brent crude price in 2025 has been cut by 17% compared to what they thought it would be in September. Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the ministry assumes the average price of Brent to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in its September predictions. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price for Urals - Russia's main blend - is $56 per barrel - compared to the $69.7 barrel price on which Russia has based their budget 2025 - and lower than the $60 "cut-off" price, which determines the amount of money sent to the National Wealth Fund Reserve (NWF) budget reserve. In the baseline scenario, we assume at some point that the export price drops below the cutoff, but then goes up. In this scenario, we do not deplete our NWF," a ministry representative told Interfax. Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget. The representative said that "from a budgetary standpoint, these conditions are difficult, but normal." The Russian rainy day NWF is now the main source for financing Russia's persistent budget deficit. The liquid assets of the fund have fallen by two-thirds, from $112.7 to $39 billion. According to the new estimates, the rouble value of Russian oil has decreased by 21.5% to 5,281 Roubles per barrel compared to the previous forecast. In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected. Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week. The first quarter of this year saw Russia's oil revenues fall by 10% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average price for Urals in roubles since April began was 31% lower than the planned amount, forcing the government to sell foreign currency for first time. The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year. Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed." The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. The rouble is also expected to be stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94.3% of the dollar per rouble, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5 roubles. (Written by Lidia Kelley in Melbourne and Gleb Brnski in Moscow, edited by Leslie Adler & Darlie Butler)
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Russia's Nornickel maintains 2025 nickel production forecast
Nornickel, a Russian company that is one of the largest nickel producers in the world and also the biggest palladium producer, maintained Monday its nickel production forecast for 2025 as 204,000-211,000 tons. The company reported that it produced 42,000 tonnes of nickel in 2025's first quarter, down 1.1% from the previous year. Palladium production fell 0.6%, to 741,00 ounces. The production of platinum increased by 0.6%, to 180,000 ounces. The company's Senior Vice-President Alexander Popov stated that the modest drop in nickel production was due to short-term scheduled repairs and maintenance. This was done to ensure a steady operation of its main technological units. Nornickel said that the decrease in nickel production is due to maintenance work at its various plants. Nornickel faces pressure in the domestic market due to the 40% rise of the rouble against the U.S. Dollar, which reduces revenues, and high interest rates which impact investment plans. The company faces falling or stagnating metal prices internationally due to lower demand in the wake of market turmoil triggered by U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. Nornickel may not be directly subject to Western sanctions but the measures have led some Western producers to refrain from buying Russian metal. They also complicate payments and restrict access to Western equipment. BCS analysts wrote in a report that they believe the threat of a global slowdown due to tariff wars would negatively impact the metals portfolio of the company. (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova; editing by Kirsten Doovan and Ros Russel)
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India imposes temporary tariffs of 12% on certain steel imports
A government notification announced that India had imposed a temporary tariff of 12%, known locally as a "safeguard duty", on certain steel products in order to curb unbridled imports. India, the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, announced that the tariffs will be effective for 200 days starting Monday. The Ministry of Finance stated that "the safeguard duty imposed by this notification will be in effect for a period of 200 days (unless earlier revoked or modified) after the publication of the notification." India's steel tax increase is the first major trade policy decision since U.S. president Donald Trump imposed duties on a number of countries in April. New Delhi's tariffs primarily target China, the second largest steel exporter to India in 2024/25 behind South Korea. According to government data, India became a net steel importer for the second year in a row during the fiscal year 2024/25. Shipments reached a record high of 9 million metric tonnes, a figure not seen since the early 1990s. Steel Authority of India, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, and JSW Steel, New Delhi's largest steelmaking body, have raised concerns about imports. Reporting by Neha Misra and Surbhi Arora; Editing and Toby Chopra and Alison Williams
Investors have few places to hide amid tariff turmoil
Fear of the impact of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on the U.S. economy has caused investors to dump assets in America that they normally favour during times of crisis.
Dollar and U.S. Treasuries took a hit as Trump's tariffs plus a duty of 104% on China went into effect. China quickly retaliated. Gold and the Swiss Franc, which are considered safe havens, continue to attract cash.
Investors are worried about the rapid rise of U.S. Treasury rates. They fear that this could lead to forced sales in order to cover portfolio losses, and a rush for cash. This brings back memories of COVID-19's market turmoil.
This is how the traditional safe-havens have done so far in the midst of tariff turmoil:
The 1/ DOLLAR takes the backseat
After Trump announced tariffs the dollar dropped with stock markets. This unusual move raised questions about the global status of the U.S. dollar, which is often called "King Dollar" because of its strength and dominance on global currency markets.
The dollar is down more than 5% against a basket other currencies this year after the weakest start of a year in 2016 according to LSEG data.
Investors are worried that the dollar has not benefited from higher U.S. Treasury rates. Until now, higher Treasuries had been more attractive than other bond markets.
Michael Metcalfe, State Street Global Markets head of macro strategy, said: "The dollar's lack of support from higher yields indicates that the dollar isn't a safe haven currency."
2/ BOND ROUT
Investors initially rushed to government bonds due to recession fears, but this has changed quickly.
The 10-year Treasury yields in the United States have risen more than 40 basis point this week after falling 26 basis points last weekend. Bonds with longer maturities are worst affected, as 30-year yields have risen by nearly 50 basis points, their largest weekly increase since the 1980s. Bond yields increase when bond prices drop.
The index of Treasury Volatility has reached its highest level since late 2023.
The yields of Treasuries have risen even though traders are pricing in more rapid rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This suggests that Treasuries were deliberately dumped rather than sold because economic expectations had changed. The widening difference between Treasury yields, and derivatives such as interest rate swaps that are used to hedge, reflects this.
Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone, said this showed a lack of interest in holding Treasury bonds.
It remains to be determined whether this represents participants selling down Treasuries in order to raise cash to meet their liquid needs or an indication of how the institutional confidence in America has continued to erode.
Investors believe that the unwinding a widely-used hedge fund arbitrage strategy, referred to as the basis trade between cash and Treasury futures positions, has also contributed to the market movements.
The bond market is in pain. The bond market pain is spreading.
3/ GOLDEN ERA
Gold is a traditional safe-haven investment.
Gold tends to increase in times of financial or political crises. Gold prices rose during the 1970s energy crises, the 1980 U.S. economic recession, the 2008 financial crisis worldwide and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Gold has almost doubled over the last two-and-a half years. The gold market was affected by the recent selling, as investors sought to fill losses elsewhere.
Gold was up by more than 2% Wednesday and only a few cents below its all-time high of $3,167.
Investors and central banks who bought gold to hedge against inflation after the COVID epidemic have continued to do so even as inflation has eased. With Trump's isolationist policies, investors are more inclined to buy gold in order to protect their wealth.
Back in Favor
When stocks fall, the yen usually performs well.
The Swiss franc has also strengthened, despite the yen's strength.
DEFENSIVE PLAYS
In recessions and financial crisis, stocks are often at the forefront. Investors pull their money out of the market and run to shelter. Most investors cannot give up the stock market, so they buy stocks that have recession-proof earnings. These include drugmakers, utilities, and food and beverage companies.
Over the past 25 years, defensive stocks, which are closely tied to the global economy such as technology and mining stocks, have consistently outperformed their cyclical counterparts.
Even though there are no signs of recession yet, a basket consisting of defensive global stocks has declined less than a basket comprising cyclicals since Trump's election victory in November, reflecting the caution of investors.
(source: Reuters)