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Trump's tariffs are forcing trading partners into a corner

The only option for U.S. trade partners in the current trade war with Donald Trump is to sue. Most countries that are hit by tariffs of 10%-50% on their exports, to the dominant economic superpower in the world, lack the firepower or political will to fight back, according to government officials, economists, and trade experts.

The vast majority of Trump's trading partners didn't immediately respond and instead indicated their willingness to negotiate with him a compromise that would save face. Even those who have counter-measured left the door open to negotiations. China, who on Friday imposed an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products, and Canada, which took limited retaliation are expected to negotiate sooner or later. This is because U.S. consumer spending is so significant globally - two thirds larger than EU consumption according to World Bank statistics.

Governments have few options other than talking to protect their export industries or broader economies. Spending on state aid, or broader economic stimuli -- Spain announced on Thursday a EUR14 Billion ($15.5 Billion) aid package -- or looking for greener pastures in trade are some of the options. German officials are looking at Mexico, Canada and India.

It will be difficult for some countries to pay for the subsidies, and other financial assistance required to avoid economic downgrades, warnings of profit, and layoffs.

Economists anticipate Beijing will increase fiscal stimulus in order to support the economy. The country sells more than 400 billion dollars worth of goods to the United States each year. According to Chinese policy advisors, it will also attempt to develop other markets for export.

One Chinese advisor, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject, said: "We must strengthen our coordination with ASEAN and Japan, South Korea, EU, UK." Trump's "Liberation Day", or "Tariff Day", tariffs have increased the tax on Chinese exports imposed since Trump was inaugurated in January to 54%. The trade advisor said that despite China's economic arsenal -- its financial power, dominance of vital mineral and metal production in advanced industries, and centrality to the global supply chain -- a negotiated ceasefire is expected.

It could be a long time, given Washington's animosity towards Beijing. However, there are rumors that Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping may meet in the United States by June.

Economic shocks may bring countries without China's influence to the table earlier. India, which was hit with a 27 percent tariff, has already begun talks and does not intend to retaliate, according to a government official. Government sources say that India made concessions before the new tariffs were announced and is willing to reduce tariffs for more than half of U.S. imported goods worth $23 billion as part of a first phase deal.

Vietnam is also expected to prioritize negotiations with little room for trade diversification or subsidies. Leif Schneider, the head of the international law firm Luther, said that it could use the exposure some U.S. companies have in Vietnam to exert pressure on the Trump administration.

He added that "Vietnam is likely to prioritize negotiations in order to avoid an economic crisis."

It is the sixth largest exporter to the United States despite a 46% tax, due to its popularity as an alternative to China for manufacturers looking to diversify away from China.

Southeast Asia as a whole has nowhere to go. The efforts of the government to increase trade with China and Japan, as well as other neighbours, have resulted in an alphabet soup trade groupings that facilitate trade. However they fall short of compensating a U.S. shock. China, Japan, and South Korea met for the first time in five years to discuss regional trade before Trump announced his decision. There is some doubt that it will be successful, especially since these three countries are not net contributors of global demand, but exporting giants.

THE LAYOFFS STARTED The European Union is already feeling abandoned by Trump over security. It said that the common market, which has 450 million members, was prepared to retaliate to Trump's tariff of 20% against the EU and to also look at other markets.

Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister, said that "Forging Alliances... is the Order of the Day." He singled out Mexico, Canada, and India as places where closer trading relations would be beneficial.

But trade deals can take a long time -- time that Europe, and other countries, don't have. After 25 years of talks, the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc announced a free-trade agreement in December. Trump's tariffs are reciprocal and take effect Wednesday.

German economists believe that it takes time to rebuild an economy in order to deal with global protectionism. They say that structural reforms, like more competition and technology investment, are preferable to government stimulus.

The economist Robin Winkler of Deutsche Bank said that fiscal and monetary policies could not do much to counter the trade shock in the short-term.

The German bank Berenberg claims that a significant part of the U.S. new tariffs could be reversed in negotiations. Europe would offer concessions, such as more contracts for U.S. defense firms.

Canada has been spared any additional tariffs, but is still reeling after the 25% U.S. tariffs imposed on its steel, aluminium and auto exports. Canada spends a lot of money on subsidies that are funded by its own tariffs in retaliation, but it still feels the pain. Stellantis NV, a European automaker, announced on Thursday that it would halt production at a Canadian plant. Companies have also reported that they've already begun layoffs, and are shifting their focus to new markets. Some countries have complained to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but trade experts consider that a weak option, especially since Trump paralysed the WTO's top appeals court in his first term. The Geneva-based body is not seen as an appropriate venue to renegotiate tariff disputes.

"If they continue to push protectionism and stick to this one-sided view, I don't think they will be returning to the WTO anytime soon for multilateral negotiation," said Marco Molina of the consulting firm Molina & Associates, and former deputy permanent rep of Guatemala at the WTO.

"That's a shame, because the WTO is designed to deal with issues like this."

(source: Reuters)