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Nickel supply will continue to expand despite slower demand growth, according to industry experts

Speakers at an industry conference this week predicted that oversupply on the global nickel market would persist in the coming years due to the expansion of production capacity and the slower growth in demand, particularly for the metal used as a component in stainless steel and batteries.

The benchmark price has been halved over the last three years due to a surge in nickel production in Indonesia. This country is the largest producer of nickel in the world with a 63% market share.

Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon said at a Shanghai Metals Market industry conference in Jakarta that the market was oversupplied. In addition, he added, "Indonesia will soon complete several projects, which will increase production capacity."

Lennon believes the surplus will continue to grow until 2027-2028.

The London Metal Exchange's most traded nickel contract was trading at $15,380 a metric ton on Thursday morning, after hitting a low of $13,865 five years ago on April 7. Nickel reached a record-high above $48,000 per ton early in 2022.

Lennon stated that the $15,000 threshold is critical for costs in the industry. He said that after production cuts started in 2022-2023 half of the existing producers would be at risk if price falls below this level.

The use of lithium iron phosphate (LIP) batteries, which are cheaper, has slowed the growth in nickel demand.

The analyst's estimate of the battery industry's nickel consumption in 2030 has been reduced to 967,000 tonnes, down from 1.5 million tons as predicted by the industry two years ago.

Nickel consumption by the battery industry was 518 tons in 2013.

Denis Sharypin is the strategic marketing director of Nornickel in Russia. He said that prices are being pushed lower by an oversupply, which means about one-fourth nickel producers worldwide are losing money on a cost-plus basis.

Steven Chen, the global sales director at Eternal Tsingshan Group Ltd (part of China's Tsingshan holding group), said that Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters, which is an alloy used to make stainless steel, also face margin compression.

Chen stated that "Smelters have been struggling and this may lead to a reduction in production. There may also be widespread cuts or closures of some smaller smelting facilities in the near future."

Indonesia's mining ministry has stated that the government will manage nickel supply and demand in order to support prices. Hongmei Li, Singapore (Writing & Additional Reporting) Mrigank Dhaniwala (Editing).

(source: Reuters)