Latest News

Copper prices rise in the near future due to falling LME stocks

Due to concerns about the near-term supply of copper at the London Metal Exchange, due to the falling stock levels in LME registered warehouses, contracts with shorter maturities have been priced higher than those with longer maturity.

A month ago, the discounts on nearby LME copper against forwards with longer dates were converted into premiums as COMEX prices continued to be higher than those of the LME.

The premium of cash LME copper over benchmark 3-month futures The price of a ton was $75 on Thursday, but it jumped to $93 at the close. This is the highest level in over two years. The discount was $63 back in early April.

The backwardation is a sign of some sort of shortage. "Normally, it's in contango," explained Dan Smith of Commodity Market Analytics.

The total copper stock in the LME's warehouse system has been reduced by half since mid-February, to 132.400 tons. This is the lowest level in nearly a year. The 54,600 tonnes of available stocks (those not marked for shipment) are the lowest level since July 2023.

Alastair Muuro, Senior Base Metals Strategist EMEA at Marex, explained that the sharp movement in the spread was due to new cancellations of LME stocks.

He said that the premium was lower on Friday because there were no new major cancellations of title documents, such as warrants. Stocks continued to leave LME registered warehouses. <0#MCUSTX-LOC>

Recent mine supply disruptions, traders diverting metals to the U.S. and Washington's investigation into the possibility of tariffs on imports of copper are fueling fears.

Despite the fact that there is not a dominant holder of LME copper warrants (0#LMEWHL>) ahead of expiration of contracts on Wednesday the third of each month, one party had more than 90% of cash copper contracts as of June 4, helping to maintain the premium. 0#LMEWHC> (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Polina Devitt)

(source: Reuters)