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Russell: China's mixed commodities data shows soft steel and strong iron ore

Russell: China's mixed commodities data shows soft steel and strong iron ore

China's June industrial output data and commodity imports have produced contrasting figures that make it difficult to get an accurate read on the second largest economy in the world.

Iron ore imports and steel production appear to be telling contrasting stories. While imports of this key raw material surged to their highest level in the year, the decline in steel production was evident.

The first six months of this year saw a 5% increase in coal production compared to 2024. However, thermal power generation - which is mostly coal-fired – dropped by 2.4%.

The output of aluminium rose by 3.4% from the previous year and by 3.3% for the first six months, while construction materials like cement and glass fell by 5%.

Decoding the mixed signals in the data requires determining whether they are a part of long-term trends or are driven by short-term influences.

China's crude output of steel fell by 3.9% from May to June and by 9.2% compared to the same month 2024. This was the biggest drop year-on-year since August.

Last month, the world's biggest steel producer produced 83.18 millions metric tons crude steel, which brought first-half output to 514.83 tons, a decrease of 3% compared with last year.

The story of the still-struggling residential construction sector is suited to a softening steel production, but this does not explain why imports of iron ore have been so robust.

China, which imports 75% of the global seaborne ore, saw its arrivals increase by 8% from May to June, with 105.95 millions tons of iron ore. This is the highest month of 2025.

Iron ore imports, however, are down 3% to 592.21 millions tons in the first half 2025.

The recent rise in iron ore prices can be explained by the Singapore Exchange contracts, which have shown a downward trend after reaching their highest level in 2025 at $107.81 per ton on 12th February.

Steel prices dropped to as low as $97.95 in July, but recovered since then. They ended the day at $97.95 Wednesday amid hopes that Beijing's stimulus plans will boost demand for steel in the second half.

If the annual output of steel is to stay around the informal cap of 1 billion tons, then the second half production will be lower than the first-half's 514.83 millions tons.

SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stocks to ensure that iron ore inventory levels are still high. The weekly total of 131.9 millions tons, down from 150.02 in the same period last year, is a drop.

COAL MINING

The coal production grew 5% to 2.4 billion tonnes in the first half of 2025, a seemingly contradictory increase.

Thermal power, which is predominantly coal-fired and uses only a little natural gas, has dropped by 2.4%.

The total power generated in the first half of the year increased by 0.8%, while hydropower dropped by 2.9%. It is clear that renewables like wind and solar have gained more share.

Why would China produce record coal volumes at a moment when the consumption is declining?

Two main reasons are at play. The first is that the domestic coal price remains relatively low. This keeps the downward pressure on the electricity cost, especially when the major users of power, such as the manufacturers, are experiencing uncertainty due to the US trade war.

Thermal coal prices in Qinhuangdao In June, the yuan fell to a low of 610 ($84.96). Although it has recovered to 625 on Wednesday, this is still almost 20% below its January 2025 peak of 775 yuan.

Second, the increased domestic coal production will reduce the need for imports from abroad. China is the largest importer of coal in the world. This has put pressure on seaborne prices.

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These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.

(source: Reuters)