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Norway GDP growth faster than expected Q1
Statistics Norway (SSB), on Thursday, released data showing that the Norwegian economy's growth was faster than expected in the first quarter 2025. In the January-March timeframe, mainland GDP increased by 1.0% in comparison to October-December. The economists polled had predicted a growth of 0.6%. The Norwegian crown currency rose against the Euro to 11,62 at 0609 GMT, from 11,63 before the release of data. spring budget proposal The central bank of Norway had predicted that the economy on the Norwegian mainland would grow by 0.6% during the first quarter, compared to the last three months in 2024 when it contracted by 0.4%. Norges Bank kept interest rates the same last week On Hold Analysts unanimously predicted that the rate would reach a high of 4.50% in 17 years, reflecting an inflationary resurgence which has prevented policymakers from reducing borrowing costs. Despite the uncertainty surrounding future economic development, the central bank stated that the policy rate was likely to be reduced by 2025. The most common measure of the Norwegian economy's performance is Mainland GDP. This excludes oil and gas production which can have a volatile impact. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Louise Breusch Rasmussen)
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CEZ proposes a dividend above the range and first-quarter profits are higher than estimates
CEZ, the Czech electric company, proposed a dividend of 47 crowns ($2.11) for each share on Thursday. This is 80% less than last year's profit. It was also lower than a previous payout 52 crowns. Dividends are paid out at a rate of 60 to 80 percent of net profit, which is the typical payout for the company. CEZ's shares closed at 1,194 crowns on Wednesday and are up 30% over the last year. CEZ reported earlier this year a 9% decline in the 2024 adjusted net profits to 31.8 billion crowns. It confirmed on Thursday its outlook for the year 2025, and is expecting a net profit adjusted between 25 billion crowns to 29 billion crowns. CEZ reported that its adjusted net profit for the first quarter fell by 6%, to 12.7 billion crowns. This was due to higher depreciation. A poll showed that the average estimate was for adjusted profit to be 10.4 billion crowns. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA), which is a measure of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, rose by 7% on an annual basis in the third quarter, to 43 billion crowns. CEZ's EBITDA forecast for 2025 was slightly raised to 127-132 billion crowns, up from 137.5 billion crowns, due to lower electricity prices. CEZ is unlikely to pay the windfall tax this year. The tax was introduced in response to energy price spikes after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. CEZ has pre-sold two-thirds or its anticipated 2026 generation at a price of 94 euros on average per MWh. This compares to an assumed average realized price of 120-125 euros for 2025.
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As markets wait for US data, stocks ease and the dollar trembles.
The dollar fell as traders looked to U.S. economic data for more catalysts. Brent crude futures fell more than 2% and U.S. Crude also dropped. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached a new high, partly due to concerns over the budget plan of President Donald Trump that will add trillions to U.S. debt. The week began with a slew of positive news for investors, from a truce in the U.S.-China Trade War to a slew of investment deals that made headlines from the Middle East on Trump's Gulf Tour. These moves breathed new energy into battered international stocks. The optimism of Thursday has largely faded, with MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan down 0.15%. Wall Street futures are also slightly lower after marginal gains in the overnight cash session. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said, "We had a big party and everyone was hungover. Now we are just recovering and waiting for the next party." The U.S.-China trade agreement gave the markets some cause to celebrate, but the lack of clarity regarding Trump's policies on trade has left the markets with an underlying sense of uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Investors also awaited further details on trade agreements with other countries. "I feel there's a bit of a hesitation to move the market up from here," Sycamore said. "I do not think that foreign investors will rush back to their overweight positions in U.S. stocks because that confidence has been shaken by the events of the last couple of months. Both from tariffs and legislators." The European market was also set for a gloomy start. EUROSTOXX Futures were down 0.17%, while DAX Futures fell 0.23%. FTSE Futures were not much changed. The Nikkei Index fell by 0.85% in Japan. China's CSI300 blue chip index fell 0.63%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.55%. Investors are waiting for Walmart's earnings and sales data for Thursday to get a sense of the consumer mood. Walmart is a bellwether retailer for the U.S. industry. A poor result could fuel fears of a global recession, which would drag down markets. Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also speak. The focus of his speech will be any clues about the outlook for U.S. interest rates. DOLLAR FRAGILE The dollar struggled to maintain its gains from the beginning of the week. It fell 0.55% to 145.99 yen. The euro increased by 0.2% to $1.1193. The Korean won was particularly volatile for the second consecutive day after the news broke that South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Choi Jiyoung had met with Robert Kaproth (assistant secretary for international finance at the U.S. Treasury) to discuss the dollar/won exchange rate on May 5. Bloomberg's report that Washington was not negotiating a weaker currency as part of the tariff talks calmed currency markets. However, investors remain wary that Washington may be pursuing a similar strategy. The recent moves in won were similar to the unprecedented rise in the Taiwan dollar at the beginning of this month. Last, the dollar dropped more than 0.8% versus the won to 1,395.52. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that while details were scarce and discussions of this nature may have been part of an ongoing dialogue, the situation brought to light how undervalued currencies could appreciate in a weaker-dollar environment. After data showed Australian employment exceeded expectations in April, the Aussie surged before paring back some of these gains. Last time it bought $0.6432. Spot gold dropped 1.2% elsewhere to $3,141.16 per ounce.
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Australia's NRW Holdings plunges after warning of $73 million impairment
Shares in Australia's NRW Holdings dropped as much as 24 percent to a two-year low Thursday after the company warned that a proposed legislation regarding Whyalla Ports assets could result in a loss of A$113.3 millions ($73 million) As of 0442 GMT, shares of the infrastructure services company were down 9.3% to A$2.635. Stock was the biggest laggard in the ASX 200 benchmark, which rose 0.2%. The South Australian Government drafted legislation earlier this week that could invalidate the lease agreement granted to Whyalla Ports Pty by OneSteel Manufacturing Pty. The bill proposes to allow OneSteel the right to acquire Whyalla Ports assets without compensating them. In February, NRW unit Golding Contractors Pty secured a loan over the assets of Whyalla Ports and its shares, including assets under lease with OneSteel. "NRW Holdings is deeply disappointed and worried that the proposed and unheard-of intervention by the South Australian Government will seriously undermine Golding’s security in Whyalla Ports," NRW Holdings stated in a press release. Golding Contractors is providing mining services to OneSteel Manufacturing and owes A$113.3 Million as per the mining service agreement. NRW Holdings announced that the company will make a provision in its upcoming results for the full year to cover any potential impairment.
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London metals fall on cautious over US-China truce
Prices for most base metals fell in London on Thursday, as the temporary truce between U.S. and China tariffs prompted caution. There were also concerns over a possible global recession that could affect metals demand. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell by 0.8% at 0416 GMT to $9,532 per metric ton. The Commerce Ministry said that China has halted non-tariff actions taken against 17 U.S. entities on its list of unreliable entities and 28 U.S. companies on its Export Control List. Both countries agreed to lower the tit for tat tariffs, and to implement a 90 day pause in action. Washington also said that it would reduce the "de minimis tariff" on low-value shipments coming from China to 30 percent. A trader stated that "the trade tariff conflict has moved in a positive way, easing concerns about a possible global recession." However, since trade negotiations can be complex and long, we cannot predict with certainty that things will get back to normal following the 90-day ceasefire. We could see a similar situation to April when increased trade tensions affected metals prices. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell by 0.3%, to $2.520 per ton. Zinc also declined, falling 0.3%, to $2.755, while lead dropped 0.6%, to $1.984, and nickel was down 0.6%, to $15,775. Tin was unchanged at $32,815. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw most metals rise on the back of a growth in demand indicators. China's total social finance, which is a key indicator for future industrial metals, rose 8.7% in April to a record high. This was due to increased government bond issuance. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract fell by 0.3%, to 78,230 Yuan ($10,851.76) a ton. The price of aluminium in the SHFE rose by 0.8%, to 20,315 Yuan per ton. Zinc gained 0.6%, to 22,655 Yuan. Lead increased 0.4%, to 16,985 Yuan. Nickel was unchanged at 124450 yuan. Tin advanced by 0.2%, to 265,250 Yuan. $1 = 7.2145 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Janane Vekatraman).
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Union wins with two goals from Tai Baribo in the second half
Tai Baribo scored twice, including the winning goal in the sixth minute during second-half stoppage, as the Philadelphia Union defeated the Los Angeles Galaxy 3-2 on Wednesday, preventing them from winning any games this season. Nathan Harriel scored another goal for the Union (8-3-3, 26 points). The Union extended their unbeaten streak to six games in a row (3-0-3) over all competitions. Andrew Rick, the goaltender, did not have to make any saves. Mauricio Fagundez and Diego Cuevas each scored in the first half for the Galaxy (0-10-3; 3 points), which extended the longest streak of winless seasons to begin a season ever recorded by MLS. John McCarthy recorded six saves in the defending MLS Cup Champions' goal. Cuevas took the Galaxy to a rare win in the 31st minutes, scoring just inside the right goal post after Marco Reus carried the ball from midfield following a Union mistake. Los Angeles led for only the second time in this season, when it scored early against Orlando City. Los Angeles scored again six minutes later when Fagundez, who also received a feed by Reus, netted. The Galaxy's halftime advantage of 2-0 was quickly erased in the second period. Harriel's set play goal off a corner kicked brought the Union within 2-1 of the Galaxy three minutes after halftime. Philadelphia equalized two minutes later when Baribo scored a header after a centering ball from Danley Jean-Jacques. Baribo scored the game-winner on a header, after Galaxy failed to clear the ball from their own penalty zone. Baribo was assisted by Mikael Houre. Baribo now has 10 goals for the season, after entering the match tied with the league leader. Union had a resounding victory, dominating scoring opportunities, with 24 shots including nine in the goal. Galaxy's two goals were scored on just four shots. Los Angeles has conceded 31 goals, the most in MLS. Field Level Media
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Russell: Asia's refined oil imports fall, but margins are still strong
In April, Asia's imports for key refined fuels like gasoline and diesel dropped to their lowest level in four years. This was due to refinery maintenance as well as a weaker demand from the region that is the largest importer. According to commodity analysts Kpler, the total imports of light distillates and middle distillates in April were 166.37 millions barrels, down from March's 195.54 and the lowest since April 2020. The sharp fall in imports for April was due to a decline in shipments by key exporters of refined goods. Kpler reports that India, which is the top fuel exporter in the region, saw its exports of middle and light distillates plummet to a 30 month low of 29,2 million barrels, compared to 42,66 million barrels exported in March. China, with the largest refinery capacity in Asia, saw its exports for light and middle distillates fall to 17,4 million barrels per day in April. This is down from 21.5 millions in March, and it's the lowest amount on a daily basis since December. Singapore, Asia's main trading hub for crude oil and products, as well as an important refining center, saw its exports of light and middle distillates drop to a 7-month low in April, from 26,15 million barrels in March. In India, for example, refineries are undergoing maintenance. There are signs of weakness in other fuel exporters. China's refinery production was essentially flat compared to the same period last year, which limits export volumes. Asia's imports for the first four-month period of 2025 totaled 746.73 millions barrels, a decline of 11.6% compared to the same period of 2024. The decline in sales would suggest that profit margins of refiners are under pressure, as they compete to gain market share. This hasn't yet happened. The margins for a typical Singapore refinery processing Dubai crude are still too high. On Wednesday, oil prices ended at $6.60 per barrel. This is not far below the recent high of $7.25 in May. Fuel Margin The price of crude oil, which is the intermediate distillate used to make diesel and jet fuel, has fallen faster than gasoline and gasoil. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have fallen 20% since their peak on January 15, when they reached $82.63 per barrel. They closed at $66.09 on Wednesday. However Singapore gasoline Gasoil, on the other hand, has fallen by 17.5% on Wednesday to $16.24. This is an indication that the supply of refined fuel into Asia has been restricted, allowing refiners maintain margins despite falling crude oil prices. The trade war that Donald Trump has launched is likely to have a negative impact on the economic growth of Asia. The overall picture remains that U.S. tariffs on imports will likely end up significantly higher than before Trump took office. Even if successful trade agreements are negotiated, Asia’s exporters will still face higher costs and a more difficult market access in the United States. The trade war poses a further threat to the oil product market, as Indonesia, Asia's largest fuel importer, has indicated that it might buy more fuel from the U.S. in exchange for a deal. Indonesian Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated on May 9th that Southeast Asian nation Indonesia may move as much as 60% of their fuel purchases from Singapore to the United States. The proposal to increase fuel imports to the U.S. from Indonesia is part of an overall proposal to Washington that addresses the tariffs. Jakarta has also indicated its desire to boost U.S. imports of energy by around $10 billion. Indonesia imports 14 million barrels per month of light and middle distillates, and switching to buy the bulk from America would disrupt regional flow of refined products. Alternative markets would be required in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. This would increase costs and reduce profits. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Southwest Kansas wheat yield is estimated to be above average. Crop tour shows
On Wednesday, the second of a three-day annual tour in Kansas, crop scouts projected that the average yield of hard red winter grain in the southwest portion of the state would be 53.3 bushels/acre (bpa), an increase from 42.4 in 2024. The average yield for the same area in Kansas from 2019-2024, according to the Wheat Quality Council's tour, was 42.3 bushels/acre. The COVID-19 pandemic prevented the tour from taking place in 2020. Scouts sampled 211 Kansas fields between Colby, Kansas and Wichita. They reported that Kansas was on track for a more productive crop this year than previous years. However, some fields were damaged by disease and drought, resulting in lower yields during the final weeks before harvest. Scouts reported that the quality of wheat varied greatly across hundreds of miles between the southwestern corner and the south-center in Kansas. In some fields, the lack of rain caused soil cracking and yellow curled leaves. Other fields were lush and nearly impenetrable. The scouts found that wheat streak mosaic was a virus spread by mites that causes yellow spots on the leaves. This can reduce crop yields. Scouts reported that the stress of drought and disease was more severe in the northwest of the state compared to the southwest and south center near Wichita where half of Kansas wheat is grown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasted on Monday that Kansas will produce its largest wheat crop in the last four years. State is top U.S. Winter Wheat Producer, with an average annual production of 315,000,000 bushels over the last 10 years. Experts who were on the tour stated that Kansas wheat production was still recovering after a disastrous 2023 season when about a quarter of farmers abandoned their crop due to drought damage. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 41% of Kansas winter wheat was in moderate drought compared with 23% on 3rd March. Justin Gilpin is the Chief Executive Officer of Kansas Wheat. He said that the measurements taken this week could not fully factor in the unknowable toll of the prolonged drought conditions and widespread Wheat streak mosaic. Gilpin stated that "a lot of us do not know what the final impact will be." Mike O'Dea, a wheat broker at StoneX, said that on Wednesday "renewed concern about the disease pressure in Kansas" could have led to a rise in futures. Farmers told Wednesday's tour that low wheat prices were the reason for the wheat being cut up and bundled into hay, to be used as cattle feed. Gary Millershaski is the secretary-treasurer for U.S. Wheat Associates. Wheat Associates. He said, "I don't like to see good grain going to cows." The tour will release the final Kansas yield forecast on Thursday. (Reporting and editing by Sandra Maler, Kate Mayberry, and Emily Schmall)
Trump's trade tariffs and threats
Since returning to office in January, Donald Trump has issued numerous tariff threats. These range from a duty on all imports to a targeted tariff on certain sectors or countries.
Trump's threats changed over time. This left other nations and business unclear as to what was next. It also created uncertainty for consumers and triggered a recent stock-market selloff.
Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade.
BROAD TARIFFS
Trump's vision is based on a gradual roll-out of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods.
Last month, Trump asked his team of economists to devise plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imports. They also had to come up with ways to combat non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their costs.
Trump announced on March 30 that he planned to announce a massive tariff program, which he called "Liberation Day." All nations will be included in the reciprocal tariffs that he plans to announce.
The potential counter-tariffs imposed by global trading partners on U.S. agricultural and energy exports, as well as machinery and equipment, could escalate into a world trade war and create uncertainty for investors and businesses.
Specific COUNTRIES
Trump's tariff proposal targets several key trading partners.
MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union took effect on 4 March as a response to migration and fentanyl.
Tariffs were imposed on the majority of goods imported from Mexico and Canada. A 10% tax was also imposed on Canadian energy imports. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto components within the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products.
Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs against US imports worth C$30 billion (US$20.7 billion), including orange juice and peanut butter. Other products include beer, coffee, motorcycles, appliances, and motorbikes.
The Canadian government said that it would add additional tariffs to C$125 billion worth of U.S. products if Trump's Tariffs are still in effect in 21 days. This could include vehicles, steel and aircraft, as well as beef and pork.
In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump said that further tariffs will be implemented by April 2, including "reciprocal duties" and non-tariff measures to address trade imbalances.
U.S. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. officials could still work out a partial solution with the two neighboring countries, and added that they need to do more in the fentanyl arena.
Trump retracted his planned tariffs of 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum after a Canadian official backed down from plans to impose a 25% surcharge for electricity exported to the United States.
Canada, which is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States (C$29.8 Billion), announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports worth C$29.8 Billion ($20 billion) as a response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.
CHINA: Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. effective February 4, after repeatedly warning Beijing that it was not taking enough measures to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the United States.
Trump then added another 10% tariff on Chinese products, which took effect on March 4. This is on top of the 25% tariffs that were imposed during Trump's initial term on Chinese imports.
China announced additional tariffs between 10% and 15% on some U.S. Imports starting March 10, as well as a number of new export restrictions for certain U.S. Entities. It then complained to the World Trade Organization about the U.S. Tariffs.
China announced on March 12, that it will take all measures necessary to protect its rights and interest, following the increase in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum.
Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses against the United States. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact that U.S. export capacity for gas is close to its limit.
In a statement released on 14 February, the European Commission stated that the "reciprocal trade policy" was a step backwards.
Trump has threatened to impose a "reciprocal rate" of 25% on European goods. Pharmaceuticals are among the industries that could be affected, since U.S. companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and others have large facilities in Ireland. Ireland is also a leading exporter of medical equipment.
In response to the U.S. blanket tariffs on aluminum and steel, the European Union announced on March 12 that it would begin imposing counter-tariffs next month on goods worth 26 billion euros.
Trump announced on March 13 that he would slap 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits as a response to EU plans to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, among other products.
PRODUCTS
AUTOS: Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported cars and light truck on March 26. The 25% tax would be added to previous duties on imported finished vehicles beginning on April 3.
Trump's directive includes temporary exemptions for auto components that comply with the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term.
The tariffs will apply to other major imports of automotive parts. These are identified by Trump as "engines and engines parts, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical component" and they will be imposed on a specific date that is to be announced in the Federal Register, but no later than "May 3, 2025."
Metals: On March 12th, Trump raised tariffs for all imports of steel and aluminum to 25% and extended duties to hundreds downstream products. These include everything from nuts and bolts, to bulldozers blades, to soda cans.
More than half of the U.S.'s aluminum and steel imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
Trump ordered on February 25, a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods.
Just over half of the refined copper that America consumes every year is produced domestically.
SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25% or higher" and increase substantially over a period of one year. He did not specify when they will be implemented.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract chipmaker in the world, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. In 2024, it will generate 70% of its revenues from North American clients.
LUMBER: On March 1, Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more tariffs to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber and 25% tariffs for all Canadian and Mexican products.
ALCOHOL: Trump threatened on March 13 to slap 200% tariffs on wine, cognac, and other alcohol imported from Europe in response to the European Union's plan to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey and products -- which is itself a retaliation for Trump's 25% tariffs that went into effect on steel and aluminium imports the day before. Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Puyaan, Seher, Anmol, Choubey, Arasu, Kannagi, Basil, Aatreyee, Dasgupta, and Vallari Srivastava. Editing by Sriraj, Marguerita, and Alan Barona.
(source: Reuters)