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Wall Street prepares for possible fallout when Trump tariffs against Canada and Mexico are near

The Trump administration has delayed the implementation of new tariffs against Mexico and Canada for a month. The reprieve will end on Tuesday.

The U.S. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the tariffs against Canada and Mexico will take effect on February 2. Donald Trump, however, will decide if the proposed tariff rate of 25% is maintained.

Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and car components as part of North American auto manufacturing chains. Mexico exports a variety of goods from the auto and industrial sectors.

What top brokerages say about the impact of tariffs on U.S. businesses, the economy and financial markets.

Profits and Companies

Goldman Sachs estimates that the announcements will reduce their S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) predictions by approximately 2% to 3 %. The company said that every five percentage points increase in U.S. Tariff rates could reduce the EPS between 1% and 2%.

Barclays analysts warned last month that tariffs against Canada and Mexico could result in a 2.8% drop in the S&P 500 profit if they were fully implemented. The materials and discretionary sectors are most at risk.

Citigroup stated before the announcement that a small shock to import prices in a narrow scenario would likely result in a reduction of 50 basis points in S&P's gross margin. However, a larger tariff could cause margins to shrink by 250 basis points.

BlackRock warns that exporters' profit margins could be affected if high inflation rates cause interest rates to rise and a dollar rally reaches its peak in 2022.

AUTOMAKERS

According to Daniel Roeska of Bernstein, the U.S. automobile industry could be facing an extra cost of $40 billion per year, or an increase of 7% on average for each car. Goldman Sachs estimated that Canada and Mexico accounted for almost one-fifth the value of U.S. automobile consumption and production before the tariffs.

RBC analysts wrote in a January 28 note that the surcharges on Mexican imports may prove to be a problem to General Motors and could lead to a shift of production to the U.S.

Steelmakers

J.P. Morgan has said that European steelmakers who have U.S. supply chains integrated into Mexico, Canada, and Europe, will be directly impacted.

Analysts point out that ArcelorMittal and its Finnish counterpart Outokumpu are exposed to Mexican steel and Canadian steel. Acerinox, on the other hand, has a high U.S. production.

J.P. Morgan analysts stated in a note dated Feb. 3, that 70% of U.S. aluminium imports come from Canada.

SPIRIT

J.P. Morgan estimates that around 85% of the consolidated sales of Corona Beer maker Constellation Brands come from imported Mexican beer. Piper Sandler estimates that tariffs could have a negative impact on Constellation's fiscal 2026 earnings by $3.75 to $3.75 a share if they last the full fiscal year.

OTHERS

BofA Global Research stated on January 29, that tariffs against Mexico could harm appliance distributors like Whirlpool.

Builders FirstSource may benefit from tariffs on Canadian imports of lumber in the short term, but this would be offset by a decrease in homebuilder starts.

INFLATION- Barclays' strategists say that the tariffs may lift the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures index, by 35-40 basis point on an annual basis, over a 12-month period.

Goldman Sachs estimated that tariffs would increase the U.S. PCE index by 0.9% if they were implemented. This is excluding volatile products such as energy and food. $1 = 0.9700 euro (Reporting and editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Shounak Dasgupta, and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)