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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Chip rout the snowballs
What's important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of?Finance and Markets Chip stock corrections accelerated again over night amid concerns about circular financing and rising competition. The correction comes before a series of crucial earnings reports by tech companies in Wall Street and Asia - as well as a further drop?in oil price below $90 per barrel amid a tense pause?in the Iran conflict. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most recent column where I discuss the various inflationary drivers central banks are increasingly struggling to "see through". Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where we talk about the causes of this latest chip sale. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear our journalists discuss all of the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. CHIP ROUT WINTER BALLS The stock markets were on edge Monday and into Tuesday as a result of a number of catalysts. Shares of U.S. Chip giant Nvidia dropped sharply, partly due to reports about a new round of circular funding with OpenAI. A second possible trigger was the IPO of China’s CXMT, which saw a massive first-day increase of almost 470%. This unveiled a brand new chip giant that is ready to absorb investment funds. The European tech giant saw its shares fall sharply after reports surfaced that Chinese firms are developing chipmaking technologies that mimic ASML's dominant offer. U.S. listed shares of South Korea’s SK Hynix dropped below their recent launch price on Monday ahead of tomorrow's quarterly update. Seoul's volatile KOSPI Index plummeted almost 11% on the same day, its largest daily loss in five months. Samsung Electronics is also due to release its earnings this week. Samsung Electronics is a rival chipmaker that is?also down dramatically. The earnings of both companies come amid reports that hyperscalers are spending heavily to build their AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers' earnings are likely to focus on the size of those expenditures and the associated cash burn. Credit markets are keeping a close eye on the situation. Oil prices dropped further on Tuesday, to $86 a barrel. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that negotiations with Iran were going well and a possible deal was in sight. He also reiterated his warning that strikes could resume if talks failed. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting that begins today will undoubtedly include a discussion on the fluctuating energy prices. The futures market still views the Fed meeting as "live", with a 1 in 3 chance that a rate increase will be priced in. Markets now see an increase in rates in September as "almost a certainty". Chart of the Day A new rout is underway in the global chip stock market ahead of this weeks U.S. Megacap Tech Earnings. There's growing unease over the cash burn by the so-called Hyperscalers who are spending hundreds and billions of dollars?building their AI infrastructure. Stock and credit markets are now becoming unnerved by the scale of debt incurred, as borrowings from Big Tech companies this year have almost doubled what they were last year. The debt load will increase as capex increases. Watch today's events * U.S. consumer confidence in July (10 a.m. ET), 7-year notes auction (1 p.m. ET) * ?Fed policy meeting begins * U.S. Corporate Earnings: Boeing, Coca-Cola and Ford. Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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Fitch warns that AI market correction is a major global credit risk
Fitch, the ratings agency, has warned that a global credit risk is emerging from the AI boom, and it's a risk of a possible correction. This comes as a result of growing concerns about the fact that tech?values and AI spending are soaring ahead of uncertain future returns. Fitch's Global Risk Outlook for the third quarter of 2018 focuses on two main short-term credit risks: the growing vulnerability to a market correction related to AI and the continued uncertainty associated with the U.S./Iran conflict. The ratings agency reiterated warnings by global watchdogs, that the AI boom is increasingly intertwined in economic growth, and capital markets, especially in the United States. This increases the risk of a major "selloff". Fitch said that "the scale of AI investments is such that it exposes the economy and the overall capital markets to such a corrective action." VALUATIONS CLOSE TO DOTCOM BOOM The warning is the most blunt yet from a major rating firm. It came at a time when Asia's AI stocks were again in the red on Tuesday, amid concerns about who was paying for the spending explosion and growing evidence of competition from China. Fitch's report highlights that the U.S. S&P 500 cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to close to the levels seen during the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, while U.S. Corporate Bond issuance surged by?26%, driven largely by AI related fundraising, in the first half 2026. Fitch estimates that Alphabet and Amazon will increase their capital expenditures by more than 75% to $700 billion this year. The US government estimated that the boom in IT investment contributed directly 1.4 percentage points of growth to the first quarter GDP, and rising equity prices also supported household spending via a wealth-effect. Uncertainty over future AI revenues and regulation, as well as disruptions to the labour market and competition, could trigger a significant and long-lasting correction in the market, with wide-ranging macroeconomic consequences. Fitch stated that "the extent to which AI has become integrated into capital markets and economies has created a vulnerability in credit." WAR AND EL?NINO The geopolitical risks remain the second major concern. This is especially true with the renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S. in the last few weeks?and the recent closure?of the Strait of Hormuz. Fitch predicts that the world's growth will slow to 2.4% by 2026, and that U.S. inflation for the year will be 3.7%. This is due to the effect of higher energy prices. The credit risk was also elevated by a strong El Nino pattern, given the possibility of severe storms, droughts, and floods. The rating agency warned that the U.S. - Iran conflict could increase inflationary pressures. It added that countries with high debt and "junk" ratings would be especially vulnerable, as food price spikes could complicate monetary policy, increase subsidies costs, and further strain the public finances. Fitch warned that in Latin America, where diesel and fertiliser account for 50% to 70% of agricultural inputs, and 30% of fertilisers are imported from the Middle East (as of 2012), higher costs and lower harvests may squeeze agribusinesses' margins, and affect transport sectors such as ports, railways, and toll roads. (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Marc Jones)
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Ambuja Cement, India's Ambuja Cement, flags high fuel prices and demand slowdown as Q2 risks
Ambuja Cements, a cement manufacturer in India, reported a 37% drop in its quarterly 'profit' on Tuesday. It was the first time in three quarters that it had seen a decline. The company said that rising fuel prices and a weak monsoon season could put further pressure on profitability. In the second quarter, monsoon related?disruptions?are expected. Meanwhile, higher petcoke costs and freight prices continue to squeeze margins on a market where competition is fierce and producers are unable to increase their prices. The company stated that "the impact of peak fuel cost inflation will coincide with the seasonal weaker Q2, potentially impacting industry profitability near term." The shares of India's No. After the results, shares of India's No. Profit after tax dropped to 5,04 billion?rupees (52.59 millions) for the quarter ending June 30, from 7.97 billion rupees the year before, due to lower volumes and increased costs related to the Middle East Conflict. Analysts said that although cheaper fuel inventories cushioned the first-quarter effect, rising fuel and freight prices are likely to further erode margins in the coming month. While producers increased prices in April to offset higher costs of inputs, the strong competition forced a partial rollback, which limited the benefit. Ambuja Cements, owned by the Adani Group, reported sales of 17.1 metric tons during the first quarter. This is down from 18.4 metric tons a year earlier. Operating EBITDA per ton (earnings prior to interest, taxes and depreciation) decreased from 1,069 rupees in a year's time, down to 931 rupees. Adani Group, since acquiring Ambuja Cements in 2022 from Holcim, has been working to improve efficiency and increase?capacity in order to close the gap with UltraTech Cement, which reported a 17% quarterly profit rise last week. Reporting by Urvi dugar in Bengaluru, Editing by Subhranshu sahu and Eileen Soreng
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NOC: Production at El Feel in Libya has been halted
The production at Libya's El Feel?oilfield has been halted, while that at the?Wafa?oilfield?was partly stopped on Tuesday. State oil firm NOC said protesters stormed Mellitah Oil and Gas Complex and disrupted operation. In a press release, the Libyan government at Tripoli stated that security forces had regained full control of a complex owned by a joint venture between Italy's Eni and?NOC, and gas supply to power plants has resumed. Mellitah runs El Feel. It has a normal capacity between 80,000?bpd to 90,000bpd. Since the 2011 uprising in Libya against Muammar Gadhafi, Libyan oil production has?been?subjected to repeated closures due to various technical and political reasons. NOC stated that it is deeply concerned about "serious developments" resulting from Tuesday's storming and closing of the complex. The oil company said that the closing caused a severe shortage of?fuel and?gas supplies needed to operate power plants,?and several generation units were taken out of service. The NOC stated that "the continuation of this situation would increase the risk?of instability?in public electricity grid, and could lead more generation units to go?offline. This could raise the likelihood of a widespread blackout or a grid collapse."
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As a new heatwave approaches, firefighters in France and Spain are scrambling to put out fires.
Firefighters rushed on Tuesday to put out huge wildfires which forced tens and thousands of people from their homes in France and Spain. Western Europe was bracing itself for another heatwave. The fires have ravaged a region that was already battered by an incredibly hot and dry summer. Crews were "seeking" to take advantage of more favorable weather conditions before a new round of high temperatures set in on Wednesday. Firefighters in Bordeaux, France, contained a forest fire overnight. In Spain, authorities permitted people to return home from nine of the 11 towns located in central Toledo province. Fires continue to rage out of control, despite the increased vigilance. A Spanish evacuee described the "red hell" as intense scenes, with residents fleeing with only clothes on their backs. Europe, which is the continent that has warmed up the fastest, experienced record-breaking heatwaves in 2018. Scientists claim that climate change caused by humans is causing heat waves and droughts, which are allowing wildfires and other fires to burn longer and spread more quickly. French President Emmanuel Macron said, "The situation that we're in today is the worst we've ever experienced. It is the toughest we've seen since the Second World War." He told Bordeaux emergency workers late Monday that "we are facing an entirely unprecedented wildfire". The wildfires that have raged in France since 2006 have?burned a greater area. BRACING FOR NEW HEATWAVE Nathalie Deattre, Senator for Gironde (which includes the city of Bordeaux), said that despite progress made in firefighting efforts, the situation was still difficult. She told BFM TV that "everything depends on how the firefighters perform on the ground" on Tuesday. On its Facebook page, the Lacanau Local Administration said that campsites and tourist homes at Lacanau near Bordeaux on the Atlantic coast were evacuated Tuesday. Spain is bracing itself for the fourth heatwave in the summer starting on Wednesday. The risk of fire will be at extreme levels because of high temperatures, low humidity and southerly wind. Firefighters continue to battle fires in Madrid and the neighbouring provinces Avila and Toledo. The Spanish government reported that the conditions during the night allowed active fire fronts in Madrid to be effectively tackled, reducing the threat even though the fires have not been brought under control yet. On Tuesday, Spain was home to more than 73,000 people who had been evacuated and approximately 66,000 others in confinement. According to Climate Monitor, temperatures were expected to reach?33 degrees Celsius (91.4 Fahrenheit) in Bordeaux on Tuesday. This is 7.1 C above the average daily temperature from 1961 to 1990. In the Madrid region, the 37 C was 5.5 C over average. The heatwave expected this week is expected to peak on Wednesday. Meteo France predicted that temperatures in Paris would reach 38 C on Wednesday. However, they added that "the duration of the heatwave will be determined in the next days". The UK Met Office said that it forecasted "an increasing warm but relatively short-lived spell of hot weather". Heatwaves that are more frequent and intense cause thousands of deaths, and disrupt everyday life. They can clog up roads and railways and even hinder cargo shipping due to low river levels in?Europe's waters. The heatwaves are also affecting crop yields. Monitoring service MARS cut all its harvest forecasts for 2026 on Monday. Residents describe 'Red Hell' For those caught on the path of a fire, it was often a matter of grabbing family members and pets and leaving behind everything else. Sylvie Michel (63), a consultant, was stroking her cat on a campbed at a French evacuee centre. She praised the authorities for providing everything she and her pet needed. In France, we are very critical. She said, "Hats off to all involved." Jose Miguel Encinas (53), a Spanish evacuee in La Vall d'Uixo, eastern Spain, recalled scenes that were "total chaos". It was just like the movies, where the hell ground cracked open and you saw the red hell.
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Marlins win another game against Phillies after a franchise-worst skid
The Miami Marlins and Griffin Conine will be looking to build on a rare win when they continue their series at home with the struggling Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday. Miami lost 12 consecutive games, a franchise-record. But on Monday they stunned Philadelphia in the first game of the series. The Marlins were trailing 7-5 in the ninth inning when they scored three runs against Phillies All Star closer Jhoan Duran, which was capped off by Conine’s?walkoff?hit. Conine, after scoring his first game-ending goal in his career, said: "I just believed the entire time that we would win this game." Conine hit a home run earlier in the match, and Heriberto Heriberto also homered as well as delivering the two-run game-tying single in the ninth. Miami manager Clayton McCullough stated, "Everyone feels good." "It is not a lie. Everyone in the building is working hard since a few weeks. ... It's great to win." Bryce Harper hit two-run homers for Philadelphia while J.T. Realmuto drove in another two runs. Zack Wheeler's shortest start this season lasted only three innings and he allowed five runs, a season low. Realmuto's team, which is 3-7 since All-Star Break, said that it was "a strange game" in the sense that they got two of their best pitchers. Miami will try to maintain the momentum that was started by right-hander 'Sandy Alcantara (11-6, 4.01 ERA) who suffered a defeat against the Houston Astros on Wednesday. Former National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (10-6, 4.01 ERA) suffered a loss Wednesday against the Houston Astros. McCullough stated, "He was fantastic." "I thought he had control for most of the evening." He was very efficient with his pitch count. After the first two innings, he really moved things forward. "I hated how the game went (when Alcantara gave up three runs in eighth), but he was a fantastic pitcher." Alcantara has scored five runs for the Marlins in his last three appearances. Alcantara has a career record of 7-11 and a 3.84 ERA against the Phillies. He played against Philadelphia only once this year and gave up four runs (two of them earned) in six inning?in a win of 12-4 on June 17 Aaron Nola, a right-hander for the Phillies (3-8, 5.82) will be their next pitcher. He has a 5.92 ERA and has not won a single game since May 26. He has a 5.01 ERA and is 0-3 in his four starts in this month. However, he was generally'solid' in July until he gave up five runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Nola has allowed 14 home runs in his last eight starts. He has given up six home runs over his previous three starts. Nola: "I have been hurt by the?long ball when I've gone out in the sixth and seventh," Nola said. "I have struggled with the long ball in this year. I need to improve." Nola has a lifetime record of 6-12 and a 3.59 ERA against Miami. On May 4, he faced the Marlins and pitched six scoreless inning in a 1-0 victory. Philadelphia leads Miami in the season series 5-3. Field Level Media
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Copper prices fall on strong dollar while traders wait for Fed rate decision
The price of copper fell for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. This was due to a strong dollar and increased bets that interest rates would rise by the Federal Reserve, which could reduce demand for industrial metals. Benchmark 'three-month' copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.5% to $13,663.50 a metric ton at 0910 GMT. It had fallen as much as 0.8% in the morning. The 50-day moving mean of the contract was supporting around $13,570. Sucden Financial, a brokerage firm, said in a report that "Overall we expect base metals to remain supported when individual supply stories still are positive." The Fed's decision and important U.S. statistics later this week will be key indicators of whether or not the rally is a success. The dollar remained near a four-week high. The dollar remained near its four-week high. The dollar's strength can make metals denominated in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies. The market awaited the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. This was especially true in light of the recent relief in oil prices following a lull between the U.S. According to CME FedWatch, 62% of market participants believe that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates at their current level. 38% expect a minimum 25-basis point hike. This is up from just 16% one week ago. The higher rates could dampen economic activity and reduce demand for copper. The LME's copper stocks are still tight despite the drop to 268,775 tonnes, their lowest level since March. Cash-to-three month?spread backwardation The price of a ton was $30 after reaching $44.50. This is the highest it has been since January. This indicates a tight supply in the near future. Aluminum prices fell 0.5%, to $3,151.50 a ton, despite the fact that stocks at LME-registered storages increased. The number of people who are unable to work has fallen to the lowest level in this century. Lead was unchanged at $1,890. Zinc fell 0.9%?to $3577.50. Nickel dropped 0.9% to $17.055. Tin lost 1.3% to $43,580. (Reporting and additional reporting by Solomon Cefai, Editing by Varun HK, Mrigank dhaniwala, Jan Harvey).
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The chip market is on a downward spiral as world stocks fall to a one-month low
Investors dumped chipmakers over concerns about Chinese competition, and the funding of the AI boom. Meanwhile, rising odds?of an interest rate increase in the U.S. as soon as this week further dampened mood. Asian chipmakers were 'at the 'heart' of Tuesday's sale. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 10%, hitting a three-month high. This triggered a circuit breaker on its way down, as it headed for its biggest monthly drop on record, surpassing the declines experienced during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. The index's value had tripled over the past 12 months, but has lost more than a quarter of that value since its peak. Shares of SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and other companies that are facing extra pressure on a market that is transforming due to leverage, have suffered losses in excess of 12%. Their stratospheric rise has slowed down in a hurry. Wall Street was set to open with a weaker opening as Nvidia's and Micron Technology’s shares dropped?in the premarket trading. Nvidia's shares fell 5% overnight, after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company is in discussions to provide $250 billion worth of financing guarantees for OpenAI in a massive data center project. Positive earnings reports from Unilever, Mercedes-Benz and other companies helped to offset losses in technology shares. The MSCI All Country World Price Index fell by 0.5%, to its lowest level since June 29. "You've seen hyperscalers not participating in AI because they are worried about cost and leverage. We're now seeing concerns about the profitability of the semiconductor industry, especially in Asia," Dorian Carrell said, Schroders' head of multi-assets income. The AI story is still evolving, but this kind of growth rate (in profit) is rarely sustained. We believe that the market is healthy in questioning these issues. The Information reported that China had begun producing its own immersion deep ultraviolet machines, which are used to make chips. ASML has long been the dominant supplier of this tool. ASML's shares fell 8.5% on Monday. CXMT, China's largest memory manufacturer, raised $8.6 Billion on Monday. It ended its first session as the most valuable Chinese company. OIL SLIDES AND US RATE IS UP EYED Brent crude oil futures continued their nearly 9% drop on Monday, dropping more than 3% at $85.55 per barrel as hostilities between Iran and the U.S. cooled following Washington's sudden suspension of airstrikes on Saturday. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States was having "good discussions" with Iran, and that there is a possibility of a deal. The break in fighting on Monday pushed benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates down?by approximately 4 basis points?to 4.64%, but shorter-term interest rates barely moved. The markets have estimated that there is a 35% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by 25 basis points this Wednesday. Thierry Wizman is a currency and rates analyst at Macquarie Group. He said that the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed up the price of crude, will continue to be the'most important' factor in determining what happens to the global economic outlook... and by extension what determines the central bank policy forecasts at the'margin. We expect the Fed to tighten its bias this week. The dollar was supported by the expectation of a hike sooner rather than later, keeping the euro at $1.1370. The yen was trading at 163.83 against the dollar. This is barely above a four decade low. Markets are worried that Japan will intervene in the currency pair, especially if it holds rates this week. Wizman said that if BOJ communication was not hawkish, and USD/JPY continues to rise, traders can expect an official response. This could include verbal interventions, rate checks or direct FX market interference, possibly on Friday. (Reporting and editing by Tom Westbrook, Sruthi Shakar, Amanda Cooper, Saad Saeed and Anil D’Silva).
The Fed's rate decision is in the spotlight as gold falls against a dollar that remains firm
Investors were waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce its 'policy' verdict at the conclusion of their two-day meeting in this week, hoping for some insight on the direction U.S. rates will take.
Spot gold dropped 1.3% to $4.021.18 an ounce at 1020 GMT. U.S. gold contracts for August delivery fell 1.4% to $4.021.50.
"Gold has held to a very narrow?range, based on the support in $4,000 region, since late June. This suggests that there will be a breakout at some point," said Rhona OConnel, head of StoneX's market analysis.
Connell said that the fundamentals of the oil market, interest rates, and the dollar are still important drivers, while the professionals are busy analyzing the interactions between these three factors.
The U.S. Dollar steadied at a four-week-high on?Tuesday making greenback priced bullion?expensive for buyers abroad.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Monday that Washington is having "good discussions" with Iran, and that there's a chance that a deal can be reached to end their conflict. He also warned that if talks fail, strikes will resume.
The oil prices fell on Tuesday and hovered around their one-week-low amid?hopes of a resolution to the U.S. - Iran war.
Energy prices are on the rise, which increases expectations that interest rates will be raised by the Federal Reserve. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, due to its non-yielding nature, it loses some of its appeal when interest rates rise.
Trump said on Monday that the U.S. must have the lowest interest rates in the world.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are preparing for tomorrow's?Fed decision on interest rate. About 34% of participants anticipate a 25 basis-point increase.
Also, traders are "pricing in" an 81% chance of an interest rate increase at the central banks September meeting.
(Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
(source: Reuters)