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Gold reaches record levels as tariffs threaten to raise the price of gold.
Asia shares rose Friday, and global markets tried to rebound after a brutal sale earlier in the week. Gold reached a new record as investors became nervous due to the latest escalation in global trade tensions. After Senator Chuck Schumer announced that he would vote for a Republican funding bill to avoid a government shutdown, he signaled his party's support. U.S. Stock Futures were a strong response. Nasdaq futures gained more than 1% in one instance and S&P futures advanced by 0.6%. FTSE Futures also gained 0.3%. DAX futures rose 0.6%. Alvin Tan is the head of Asia FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. He said that this news, for today at least, was positive for the market sentiment. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which includes Japan, traded 0.95% higher. However, it is still on course to lose 1.5% this week as global trade conflicts have weakened global stock markets. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he will impose a 200% tariff on imports of European wines and spirits if the EU does not remove the retaliatory charges on American whiskeys and other products which come into effect in the next month. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho. Recent developments have sparked the steep sell-offs on Wall Street, and confirmed that the S&P 500 is in a correction. This comes just one week after Nasdaq also confirmed this. "I don't think Trump 2.0 is the same as Trump 1.0. Michael Strobaek is the global chief investment officer of Lombard Odier. He said that this time the president appears to be willing to let U.S. stocks and the economy suffer as he implements his "America first" goals. Gold, a safe-haven asset, has benefited from the trade war. The yellow metal hit a record of $2,993.80 per ounce last Friday. The yellow metal was expected to rise 2.6% this week. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.8%. Chinese stocks rose on Friday after Hohhot, a northern Chinese city, announced large cash rewards for boosting birth rates. Investors also anticipated a press conference by officials of Beijing's top planning office and other agencies next week to discuss additional measures for boosting domestic consumption. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong jumped by 2.4% while China's blue-chip index, the CSI300, grew by 2.3%. Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%. Dollar Trouble The dollar gained some ground on Friday thanks to the safe-haven flows. However, it was still not far from recent lows due to fears of an imminent U.S. economic recession and growing trade tensions. The Euro last traded at $1.08465, down 0.04%, while the Pound fell 0.03% to $1.9475. The German fiscal reset plan, which includes a 500-billion-euro fund for infrastructure as well as sweeping changes in borrowing rules and growth boosters to boost military spending and revive Europe's biggest economy has given the euro additional support. The German lower house, which is leaving office in March, will vote on these measures before forming a new Parliament on March 25, Investors will be waiting for further information on the rate outlook, amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies on trade and the impact they have on U.S. inflation and growth. "Our assessment shows that the rate trend is constant, and will continue to be lower." Varathan from Mizuho said that it's a matter of timing. "I believe that the tariffs are only going to be an inconvenience and not a hindrance to the Fed's cuts because, even if prices increase, it will still result in a negative shock of demand, which makes people worse off. Dollar was up by 0.5% last week against the yen, at 148.50. However, it was expected to suffer a small loss for the week against the Japanese currency due to the increasing bets on more Bank of Japan rate hikes. Next week, the BOJ will also meet. Oil prices rose after falling the previous session. Brent futures increased by 0.67%, to $70.35 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 0.75% per barrel to $67.05.
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Mayor says that Russia shot down four drones heading for Moscow after Kyiv attacked oil complex
Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, said that Russian air defences had repelled a drone attack flying towards Moscow. No injuries were reported in either the capital, or an earlier attack against an oil complex located in one region in southern Russia. Sobyanin, on his Telegram official channel, said that emergency services were working on the site of the debris fall. Sobyanin didn't mention Ukraine. But Kyiv has launched an ongoing series of drone attacks against Russia, since President Vladimir Putin dispatched tens-of-thousands of troops to Ukraine over three years ago. Most of these attacks have targeted energy and other infrastructure. Veniamin Kodratiev said that an attack by Ukrainians had ignited a fuel tank at the Tuapse Oil Complex on the Black Sea shores. He said that no one was injured in the attack. Kondratiev, who did not specify whether the site was hit by a missile or drone, said that 121 firefighters battled to extinguish the fires. Export-oriented Tuapse Refinery produces high-sulfur diesel, naphtha and vacuum gasoil. It has a capacity of 240.000 barrels per day. Andrei Vorobyov said that three drones headed for Moscow were brought down in his area. He said debris had fallen onto a building site and an under-construction residential building. The RIA news agency, citing emergency services, reported that one of the drones hit the roof a multi-storey building in west Moscow. The TASS agency reported that debris also fell on a house outside of Moscow. Reporting by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Tom Hogue and Andrew Osborn)
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Iran's ruling class caught between Trump's repression and an economy in trouble
Iran's clerical leadership may find that engaging the "Great Satan" in order to negotiate a nuclear agreement and ease crippling economic sanctions is the lesser evil. Four Iranian officials have said that despite its deep mistrust for the United States and in particular President Donald Trump, Tehran is growing increasingly worried about public anger at economic hardships escalating into massive protests. People said that despite the defiant and unyielding rhetoric of Iran's clerical leadership in public, there was a pragmatic desire within Tehran's power corridors to strike a bargain with Washington. Tehran's fears were exacerbated when Trump revived his "maximum-pressure" campaign from his first term, which aimed to reduce Iran's oil sales to zero by imposing more sanctions. This would bring Iran's fragile economy to its knees. Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has repeatedly emphasized the severity of its economic situation, saying that it was more difficult than the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. He also pointed this month at the latest round U.S. sanction targeting oil tankers transporting Iranian oil. According to one of the Iranian officials, leaders are concerned that cutting off diplomatic avenues could further fuel discontent in Iran against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is because he is the final decision maker for the Islamic Republic. Alex Vatanka is the director of the Middle East Institute's Iran Program in Washington. He said that there was no doubt whatsoever that the man, who has been the supreme leader since 1989, and his foreign policies preferences are the most responsible for the current state of affairs. Iran's poor economy prompted Khamenei, who was then president of Iran, to back the nuclear deal struck in 2015 with major powers. This led to the lifting of Western sanctions as well as an improvement in economic circumstances. Then-President Trump’s renewed attack on Iran after he withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018 squeezed life standards again. The situation is getting worse every day. I cannot afford to pay rent, bills or clothes for my kids," Alireza Yousefi said, 42, an Isfahan teacher. "Now, even more sanctions make it impossible to survive." The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not reply to a comment request. "ON EQUAL TERMS" Trump, while increasing the pressure on Iran through new sanctions and military threats, also opened the doors to negotiations when he sent a letter to Khamenei suggesting nuclear talks. Khamenei rejected the offer Wednesday, repeatedly saying that Washington had made excessive demands and that Tehran wouldn't be pushed into negotiations. In an interview published Thursday, Abbas Araqchi, Iran's top diplomatic official said: "If we negotiate while the other party is exerting maximum pressure on us, we will be in a weaker position and achieve nothing." He said that "the other side must be convinced of the ineffectiveness of the pressure policy - then we can sit down at the table and negotiate on equal terms." A senior Iranian official stated that there was no other option but to reach a deal, and it was possible. However, the road ahead was bumpy, given Iran's mistrust of Trump following his abandonment of the 2015 agreement. Iran's economic collapse has been largely prevented by China, its main oil buyer and one of the few countries still trading with Tehran in spite of sanctions. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil exports dropped after Trump abandoned the nuclear deal, but recovered in recent years. They are expected to generate more than $50 billion of revenue between 2022 and 2023, as Iran finds ways to avoid sanctions. But uncertainty still looms about the future of exports, as Trump's policy of maximum pressure aims to choke off Iran's crude oil sales by imposing multiple rounds of sanctions against tankers and other entities involved in trade. PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS Iran's rulers also face a series of crises: energy and water shortages; a collapsing dollar; military setbacks for regional allies, and growing fear of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. All of these are exacerbated by Trump's hard stance. Lack of infrastructure investment, excessive consumption driven by subsidies and declining natural gas production, as well as inefficient irrigation are all contributing to the energy and water sector's problems. This leads to blackouts, and water shortages. According to foreign exchange websites and officials, the Iranian rial's value has dropped by more than 90 percent against the dollar ever since sanctions were reinstated in 2018. State media reported that Iranians, worried about Trump's harsh approach, have bought dollars, other hard currency, gold, or cryptocurrency, indicating further weakness in the rial. State media reported that the price of rice had risen 200% in the past year. Media reports indicate that housing and utility costs in Tehran and other major cities have risen sharply in recent months. They climbed roughly 60%, mainly due to the steep decline of the rial and the rising cost of raw materials. Some Iranian experts claim that the official inflation rate is over 50%, but it hovers at around 40%. The Statistical Center of Iran has reported a dramatic rise in food costs. In January, the prices of a third of the most essential commodities increased by 40%. They were now more than twice as high as they had been in the previous month. According to the Tasnim News Agency, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare (IILSW), 22%-27% of Iranians are now living below the poverty level. Last week, Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami daily reported that the poverty rate was around 50%. I can't pay the rent on my carpet shop, or my employees' wages. No one can afford to buy carpets. "If this situation continues, I'll have to layoff my staff," Morteza (39), said over the phone, from Tehran's Grand Bazaar. He gave only his first name. How can they hope to resolve the economic crisis without talking to Trump? Talk to him, and you will reach an agreement. "You cannot afford to be proud on an empty stomach." NUCLEAR RED LINE According to Iranian state media, at least 216 protests took place in Iran during February. These included retirees and workers, as well as students, health professionals, merchants, and healthcare professionals. According to reports, the protests were mainly focused on economic hardships such as low wages and unpaid salaries for months. Officials fear that a decline in living standards, despite the small scale of most protests, could explode. One of the four officials who was close to the government said, "The country is a powder-keg and any further economic strains could ignite it." The officials stated that Iran's ruling class is aware of the possibility of a return of unrest, similar to protests from 2022-2023 over the death of Mahsa Amin in custody or nationwide protests of 2019 over the rise in fuel prices. Senior Iranian officials said that there were several high-level discussions to discuss the potential of new mass demonstrations and possible measures to prevent them. Iranian officials, however, said that despite concerns about possible unrest, Tehran would only go so far with any discussions with Trump. They stressed that "excessive requests" such as the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program or conventional missile capability were not on the table. The senior official stated that "yes, there is concern about increased economic pressure and there are concerns regarding the nation's anger growing, but we cannot give up our right to produce nuclear energy just because Trump wants it." Ali Vaez is the Iran project director for International Crisis Group. He said that Iran's leaders believed that negotiations with Trump would be a sign of weakness and could lead to more pressure rather than less. He said: "Ayatollah Khmenei appears to believe that surrendering is the only thing more dangerous than sanctions." (Reporting, Writing and Editing by Parisa Hafezi)
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Olympic athletes make climate pleas to IOC Presidential candidates
More than 400 Olympians representing nearly 90 nations around the globe have signed a petition urging the winner of the International Olympic Committee's presidential election next week to make climate change their number one priority. Signatories of an open letter calling on the IOC to act on climate change include Australia's most decorated Olympian Emma McKeon and Cyrille Tchatchet II - a weightlifter, who represented the refugee squad at the Tokyo Olympics 2021. The letter stated: "To the incoming president, we ask that during the next years and throughout your presidency you place one issue above all else: the care of the planet." "Rising temperatures are disrupting competition schedules and endangering iconic venues, as well as the health of fans and athletes. Winter Games are getting harder to organize as snow and ice conditions decrease each year. Seven candidates will compete to succeed Thomas Bach as IOC president at a ballot held by IOC members in Costa Navarino (Greece) on 20 March. The Olympians demanded a meeting with the winning candidate immediately after the elections to discuss environmental issues, and stated that the IOC should strengthen its existing commitments regarding the reduction of carbon emissions. The IOC should also advocate "broader environmental actions", promote sustainable practices in cities hosting the Olympics and "set standards" for sponsorship deals with polluting companies. Hannah Mills, a British Olympian, was among the British Olympians to initiate the letter. She said that the recent wildfires, which occurred in Los Angeles, where the Summer Olympics of 2028 will be held, showed how climate change is a threat. The IOC Sustainability Ambassador, a two-time Olympic champion and former Olympic athlete, said: "I don't think we've seen so many athletes around the world speaking with one voice." The terrible LA wildfires could not have been more clear: it is time to chart a course towards a bright, safe future. "The Olympics have held and fulfilled so many dreams over its history, but I cannot dream of a bigger future than one in which my kids can thrive." IOC's "reduce compensate influence" commitment to climate action includes a reduction of 50% in carbon emissions until 2030. This will be offset by compensating for more than 100% residual emissions. It also encourages fans and stakeholders to take action against climate change. The favourites for Bach's successor are World Athletics chief Sebastian Coe and IOC Vice President Juan Antonio Samaranch, as well as Kirsty Coventry who is Zimbabwean Sports Minister. The list includes David Lappartient as the head of the International Cycling Federation, Prince Feisal al Hussein from Jordan, Morinari Watanabe, the head of the International Gymnastics Federation and Johan Eliasch who is the International Ski Federation's president. Prince Feisal welcomed the "powerful messages" from Olympians all over the world, while Coe, a vocal advocate of the climate change impact on athletics and athlete advocacy, said that he was delighted to meet with the athletes to "share ideas, initiatives, and experiences". (Reporting and editing by Peter Rutherford, Iain Axon, London)
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Sources say that Russia is increasingly relying on cryptocurrency for its oil trade.
Four sources who have direct knowledge of this matter claim that Russia uses cryptocurrencies to avoid Western sanctions in its oil trading with China and India. Although Russia has publicly endorsed the use of digital currencies and passed a bill last summer to allow them in international trade, the use of these currencies in the oil trade in the country has never been reported. Sources said that some Russian oil companies use bitcoin, ether, and stablecoins like Tether to convert Chinese yuan, Indian rupees, and other currencies into Russian roubles. They added that this is only a small, but growing, part of Russia's total oil trade which, according to the International Energy Agency, was valued at $192 billion in 2017. Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources refused to be named. Cryptocurrencies are already helping countries like Iran and Venezuela, which have been subject to U.S. sanctions, keep their economies going without having to use the dollar as the currency of choice for global oil transactions. Russia's move follows Venezuela's use of digital currencies in crude and fuel imports after Washington reimposed its sanctions. A fifth source said that Russia has set up several systems, and USDT (Tether), is only one of them. The researcher, who works for an investigation firm that tracks the use cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions, asked not be identified because of non-disclosure agreements. The Russian central banking did not reply to a comment request. Last year, it said that sanctions-related delays in payments had become a major problem for the Russian economy. Donald Trump wants to improve the relationship with Russia while he pushes to end the war in Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether sanctions will be removed. Reports said that the White House had been drafting options to ease sanctions, but Trump stated on March 7 that more sanctions against Russia are being seriously considered. One of the sources stated that crypto would continue to be used for Russian oil trading even if the sanctions were lifted and the dollar could be used again. They said that it is a useful tool and makes operations run faster. Two sources familiar with the transactions described how a Chinese buyer who purchases Russian oil pays the trading company that acts as the middleman yuan to an offshore account. They said that the middleman converts it into crypto, transfers it to another bank account, and then sends it to a third Russian account to be converted to roubles. According to a source familiar with the operations of the Russian oil trader, the crypto transactions for his sales to China are in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars each month. Analysts said that traditional currencies still make up the majority of Russia's oil transaction, but they also suggested other alternatives, such as the UAE dirham. Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange, has been sanctioned by the United States in 2022, and by the European Union just last month. Last week, the platform suspended its services after Tether banned digital wallets from its platform. According to a source who advises the Kremlin, cryptocurrency is one way of avoiding payment problems. The Royal United Services Institute in the UK and the Centre for Information Resilience also support this view. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein, Aizhu chen, editing by Alex Lawler and Dmitry Zhdannikov, Kirby Donovan.
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Oil prices rise as ceasefire agreement in Ukraine remains elusive
The oil prices recovered some of the more than 1% loss they suffered in the previous session. This was partly due to the diminishing prospect of an end to the Ukraine conflict that would bring more Russian energy back. Brent crude futures were up 46 cents or 0.7% to $70.34 per barrel at 0406 GMT, after closing 1.5% lower the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was at $67.03 per barrel, up 48c or 0.7% after closing 1.7% lower on Thursday. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, said that Moscow supports a U.S. ceasefire proposal in Ukraine but that it has a few conditions and clarifications that appear to prevent a rapid end to the fighting. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that "Russian support for a 30-day truce with Ukraine has decreased confidence in a short-term ceasefire." The feeling is that the U.S. will not lift sanctions until a ceasefire has been agreed. The global trade war, which has caused financial markets to be roiled and sparked recession fears, is intensifying. On Thursday, U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to slap 200% tariffs on wine, cognac, and other alcohol imported from Europe. The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that the global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day due to a growth in demand led by America and fewer than expected global consumers. The IEA stated that "the macroeconomic conditions which underpin our oil consumption projections deteriorated in the last month as trade tensions increased between the U.S.A. and other countries." This led the IEA to lower its estimates of demand growth for the fourth and first quarters of 2025. Oil prices fell on Friday due to the Trump-driven trade conflict woes, and concerns about demand. However, the prospect of less Russian oil being available in the short term helped cushion the market. In a client note, ANZ analysts stated that "most price projections are to the downside over the short-term but geopolitical tensions could still cause disruptions in supply." Reporting by Florence Tan Editing and proofreading by Shri Navaratnam
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Shanghai tin price jumps after Alphamin stops mining in Congo
Alphamin Resources, which has halted its mining operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has halted the production of tin. Alphamin Resources announced on Thursday the halting of activity at the Bisie Tin Mine in Congo's North Kivu "after insurgent militants groups recently advanced westward toward the mine's position in DRC, occupying Nyabiondo". Shanghai's most actively traded tin contract rose 8.8% on Friday to 288,450 Yuan ($40212.16) per metric ton at 0346 GMT after reaching the upper limit by 10% in the morning Asian trade session. The benchmark three-month tin price on the London Metals Exchange increased 0.6% to $35,110 per ton. This is a decline from its intraday peak of $37100 per ton in mid-2022. In a recent note, Wang Weiwei said that the Bisie Tin Mine is the third largest tin mining operation in the world, and will contribute 6% of tin ore to the global market by 2024. Wang believes that even though Myanmar's Wa State is considering restarting their mining operations, any significant increase in the tin production from this region is not expected to be apparent until May 2025. Base metals traders said that they were closely following the news of militancy and tin in Congo. LME copper rose by 0.4%, to $9,817.5 per ton. LME Aluminium was down by 0.1%, to $2,699.5 per ton. Lead gained 0.3%, to $2,079.5. Nickel increased 0.4%, to $16,570. SHFE copper increased by 0.7%, to 80,150 Chinese yuan ($11 070.44) a metric ton. SHFE aluminium fell 0.1%, to 20,960 yuan. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%, to 24,120 Yuan. Lead jumped up 0.4%, to 17,640 Yuan. Nickel lost 0.2%, to 133 300 Yuan. $1 = 7.2400 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Sonia Cheema).
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EU-Backed Project to Unlock Tidal and River Energy Potential
A new EU-funded project has brought together 14 partners across Europe to unlock the potential of harnessing tidal and river energy in the North-West Europe.The SHINES project, short fo Showcasing Hydrokinetic energy Innovations for Northwest European Energy Sovereignty, is ready for launch, bringing together 14 partners from France, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Germany.Co-financed by Interreg North-West Europe under the fourth call for projects, SHINES is set to unlock the potential of tidal and river energy systems, an opportunity still largely untapped in the region.With a total budget of $10.9 million, including 60% ERDF funding of about €6.5 million, the project, led by OPEN-C Foundation, will span from January 2025 to December 2028.SHINES will work to address several investment, economic and regular hurdles by replicating and scaling up three innovative solutions - HydroWing, RivGen and TidalKite - through grid connections and real sea deployments in France and the Netherlands.Some of the most promising sites across the region will be developed, engaging 100 organizations in the adoption of tidal and river energy systems.One of the partners in the project is Inyanga, which will design, construct and install a grid-connected 600kW tidal energy turbine, based on HydroWing concept, on the Paimpol-Bréhat test site in France, then operate and monitor the device throughout the test period.In addition, Inyanga will install and maintain SeaQurrent’s TidalKite device at Paimpol-Bréhat, managing all offshore operations.The project is aligned with Europe’s Net-Zero Strategy and the Critical Raw Materials Act, contributing to the goals of 1 GW of ocean energy capacity by 2030 and 40GW by 2050. Ocean energy holds the promise of creating 400,000 high-value jobs by 2050, revitalizing coastal communities with histories rooted in shipbuilding, fishing, and oil and gas industries.Project partners include, ORPC Ireland with RivGen technology, SeaQurrent, ÉireComposites Teo, Foras na Mara – Marine Institute, Bretagne Développement Innovation, Geemente Ameland, and others.
Zinc's high premium to sibling metal lead might not last: Andy Home
Lead and zinc might be geological sibling metals however their market fortunes have actually been very various in recent months.
London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month zinc rallied to a 20-month high of $3,284 per metric heap in October on the back of an acutely tight raw materials market.
LME lead, by contrast, headed in the opposite direction, weighed down by a mountain of exchange stocks.
Zinc's premium to lead extended to over $1,000 per heap during the 4th quarter of 2024, the widest gap considering that February 2023.
Although the 2 metals primarily come from the same mines, divergent narratives of under-supply in zinc and oversupply in lead have caused funds to position appropriately and seal the cost disparity.
Both metals are down on the start of January but zinc has fallen harder and the premium to lead contracted to $888.50 at the Friday close.
What takes place next to the sisterly trade may be an awful contest as zinc's mine supply recovers and the lead excess grows.
ZINC SUPPLY TENSION
Zinc's October rally included an aspect of positional poker on the London market. The straight-out rate high coincided with a sharp contraction in time-spreads, the cash-to-three months period << CMZN0-3 > flaring out to a backwardation of $63.50. per heap.
However that's not to state that rate relocation wasn't underpinned by. authentic tightness in the zinc focuses. Indeed, the rally. was partially activated by another supply hit after fires at South. African producer Sibanye Stillwater's Century mine in. Australia.
International zinc mine production succumbed to the 3rd straight year. in 2024, forcing smelters to accept ever lower costs for. processing concentrate into refined metal.
Chinese metal production was sliding even before a group of. the country's top 14 operators concurred in August to change. operating rates in a bid to protect margins.
The country's refined zinc output tumbled by practically 7%. year-on-year in 2024, according to local information provider Shanghai. Metal Market.
Lower Chinese run-rates dragged the global zinc market into. a supply-demand deficit of 33,000 heaps in the very first 11 months of. the year, according to the latest assessment from the. International Lead and Zinc Study Hall (ILZSG).
LME zinc stocks, both registered and off-warrant, peaked at. 367,000 lots in August and fell to 324,000 at the end of. November.
LEAD GLUT
LME lead stocks have actually grown greatly over the last two. years. Combined on- and off-warrant inventory rose from simply. 29,000 lots at the start of 2023 to 305,000 loads at the end of. November 2024.
The unrelenting stock construct was just briefly interrupted. in August 2024, when China imported considerable quantities of metal. for the very first time considering that 2019.
Indian brand name metal has actually represented much of the boost,. its share of registered LME stocks rising from absolutely no at the start. of 2023 to 52% at the end of 2024.
Who understood there was a lot lead around?
The scale of stocks increase is confusing, given the ILZSG. assesses worldwide supply and need to have been practically well balanced. in the very first 11 months of 2024.
Moreover, primary lead smelters are struggling with the exact same. margin squeeze as zinc producers because of the overlap in the. two metals' mine production profile.
The most likely cause of the stocks rise is the opaque. secondary production sector, which accounts for a much higher. ratio of supply in the lead market than any other industrial. metal.
Whatever the origin, the bearish optics of high and increasing. stock has actually motivated funds to take huge bets on still. lower prices. Investment gamers are holding a record web long. on the LME lead agreement.
MINDING THE GAP
By contrast, funds are sticking to zinc's bull narrative. and are still considerably net long on the LME zinc contract.
Nevertheless, the narrative is starting to shift.
Zinc mine supply is turning a corner and is anticipated by. ILZSG to recuperate highly this year thanks to a combination of. brand-new mines and restarts of idled centers.
Although global mine production was 370,000 tons lower in. the very first 11 months of 2024, monthly production began increasing. over the back end of the year.
If concentrates availability enhances, zinc smelter output. growth will restore momentum and zinc's relative shortage premium. over sister metal lead need to decline.
That is, if lead market optics don't deteriorate even. even more. More zinc mine supply will undoubtedly suggest more lead. mine supply with the capacity for more exchange stocks. build.
Neither metal is blessed with particularly strong need. dynamics at the moment. Lead usage is dominated by demand for. batteries in the vehicle sector, where lithium-powered. electrical cars are driving sales development. Around half of all. zinc is used in the building sector, which is weak just. about everywhere, especially in China.
ILZSG approximates that worldwide zinc usage rose by a modest 0.7%. year-on-year in January-November 2024, while lead use fell by. 1.3%.
With little enjoyment on the demand side, supply narratives. will continue to play the dominant function in the relative worth. trade between the two metals.
But the geological link in between lead and zinc indicates they. will both be impacted by a recovery in mine production this. year.
It's just a matter of which proves most resistant in cost.
The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .
(source: Reuters)