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Asia markets plunge as technology rout intensifies
Asian markets fell on Monday, as investors put a halt to the AI rally. Meanwhile, the Israeli strike on Beirut sent oil prices and dollar up. The 'chip-heavy' KOSPI in South Korea took a beating. It fell more than 6.8% during volatile trading that had earlier caused a temporary halt of 20 minutes. The benchmark has fallen about 14% since last week's high. Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.4% in the early trading, but U.S. S&P and Nasdaq futures attempted a rebound following a Friday sharp selloff. Nasdaq dropped by 4.2% after Friday's hot jobs report fueled expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Marc Velan is the head of investments for Lucerne Asset Management, a Singapore-based asset management firm. "Korean tech names were among the best performers in the world and heavily owned, so they became a source of liquidity when the rate expectations changed after the jobs report." The yield on two-year Treasury bonds rose by more than 11 basis point on Friday, and then?by 1.6 basis points to 4.1782% on Monday. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's?markets and macro strategy. The key question is whether this?is an opportune pause or a peak in the nine week equity rally. SpaceX and Anthropic's IPO focus is part of this pause - to either make room for a new market cap, or to rethink the value. INFLATION AND THE ECB Ahead This week, the focus will be on inflation, with U.S. consumer prices due to be released on Wednesday, and central bank meetings taking place in Canada and Europe. Bitcoin dropped by 16% last week, its biggest weekly decline since the collapse in 2022 of the crypto exchange FTX. On Monday, it was hovering just below $63,000. SpaceX's debut will be followed in the coming months by mega-IPOs from?Anthropic? and OpenAI?, which are expected to raise so much money that brokerages are worried it could pull down other assets. Nick Ferres of Vantage Point Asset Management, Singapore, said that the market has shifted away from moderate inflation, rate cuts, and towards a potential "overheating" which could lead to higher Treasury yields and a path for short-term rates, as well as tighter liquidity. The Middle East situation remains fragile. Brent crude futures rose about 2.6% to $95.45 per barrel on Monday after an Israeli attack on Beirut led Iran to fire a salvo of missiles on Israeli targets. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase its oil production targets for the fourth time in as many month. The dollar held firm above 160 yen in the currency market and the Australian dollar rose to $0.7055. The euro was hovering at $1.1531. Reporting by Tom Westbrook, Editing by Aurora Ellis & Shri Navaratnam
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The price of oil has risen by more than $2 since Israel's attack on Lebanon
Oil prices rose by more than $2 per barrel on Monday, after Israel launched new strikes against Lebanon on Sunday despite an agreement between the two nations. This shattered hopes of a ceasefire and the restart of crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz. As of 0013 GMT U.S. crude oil futures were up by $2.10 or 2.32% at $92.64 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by $2.33 or 2.5% to $95.42 per barrel. This erased a majority of Friday's losses, when prices fell on the hope of a deescalation of the U.S. - Iran conflict. The latest strikes seemed to be yet another obstacle to a U.S. - Iran peace?deal, and to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz a vital conduit for global 'oil and gas' flows. Iran has set a ceasefire in Lebanon as a precondition for a deal with Washington. Iran launched missiles against Israel in retaliation for the Beirut attacks on Hezbollah, its ally. U.S. president Donald Trump said that he would instruct Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from retaliating against Iran. Israel invaded Lebanon in march after Hezbollah, backed by Iran, fired drones and rockets across the border. Lebanon and Israel announced on June 3, that they had reached a ceasefire after negotiations in Washington. Both countries had agreed in April to cease hostilities, but the violence continued. The wider war is on hold since the U.S., Israel and other countries stopped their attacks on Iran early in April. However, Tehran continues to block shipping through Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ agreed to its fourth increase in output?in just four months on Sunday, amid the resulting?supply crisis. Analysts said that the decision will have little effect, as most OPEC+ countries cannot meet their production targets because of the Hormuz shutdown or infrastructure attacks in Russia. In a recent note, Jorge Leon, Rystad's head of geopolitical analyses said that the impact of such a move would be "close to zero" in the current market. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Christopher Cushing, and Colleen Waye)
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Asia markets plunge as technology rout intensifies
Asian markets fell on Monday, as investors slammed on the brakes to the AI rally. Meanwhile, the oil price and dollar rose due to the Israeli strikes in Beirut. A 8% decline in South Korea's chip heavy?KOSPI triggered a trading halt for 20 minutes?and has it down 17% since its record high last week. Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.5% in the early trading, while U.S. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 futures saw small gains. After a strong jobs report, which raised expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the Nasdaq fell 4.2%, with most selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. This put a halt to what had been an AI-led rally. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds rose by more than 11 basis points last Friday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury futures fell about five ticks in the early morning hours of Monday morning, Asia. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's macro-markets strategy. The key question is whether this is a "healthy pause" in the nine week equity rally, or a peak. IPO attention on SpaceX and 'Anthropic' is part of a pause - to either make room for a new market cap, or to rethink the value. INFLATION AND THE ECB Ahead The biggest news of the week is likely to be the SpaceX listing. It will price on Thursday, and trade on Friday. But inflation will also be a major topic, with U.S. Consumer Price Data due on Wednesday, and central bank meetings in Canada, Europe, and elsewhere. Bitcoin dropped by about?16% last week, its biggest weekly decline since the collapse in 2022 of crypto exchange FTX. On Monday, it was just above $63,000. Brokers are worried that the IPO of SpaceX could cause other assets to fall in value. The Middle East situation remains fragile. Brent crude futures were up 2.6% on Monday to $95.45 per barrel after an Israeli strike on Beirut led Iran to fire a volley of missiles on Israeli targets. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase its oil production targets for the fourth time in a row. The dollar held firm above 160 yen in the currency market and the Australian dollar rose to $0.7038. The euro was hovering at $1.1518. Reporting by Tom Westbrook, Editing by Aurora Ellis & Shri Navaratnam
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Asia markets prepare for sales after Wall Street tech crash
The Asian markets are expected to fall Monday as Wall Street's nine week winning streak in tech sales ends. Meanwhile, the Israeli strikes on Beirut have sent oil and dollar prices higher. Futures and the U.S. exchange-traded funds' moves on Friday pointed to sharp drops in Japan and South Korea. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% early in Asia. After a strong jobs report, which raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, the Nasdaq fell 4.2%, with most selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. This put a halt to what had been an exciting?AI-led rise. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose by more than 11 basis point on Friday, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury futures were down about five ticks on Monday morning. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that "the AI-drives everything narrative frayed in the last week." The key question is whether this is a healthy break in the nine week equity rally, or a top. The IPO focus of SpaceX and Anthropic 'is part of the pause - to make space for the new market capital or to rethink the value." This week, the biggest news is likely to be the SpaceX listing. It's expected that it will price on Thursday, and then trade on Friday. But, inflation will also be a major topic, with U.S. consumer prices due on Wednesday, and central bank meetings taking place in Canada and Europe. Bitcoin dropped by 16% last week, its biggest weekly decline since the collapse in 2022 of the crypto exchange FTX. It was hovering around $63,000 on Sunday. Brokers are worried that SpaceX's IPO could cause other assets to fall in value. The Mideast situation remains fragile, and Brent crude futures rose 2.6% on Monday to $95.45 per barrel after an Israeli strike on Beirut led?Iran? to fire a salvo? of missiles? at Israeli targets. OPEC+ has agreed to a fourth increase in oil production targets in just a few months. The dollar held firm above 160 yen in the currency market and the Australian dollar rose to $0.7038. The euro was hovering at $1.1518.
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China dominates low-carbon industrial projects, US lags, report says
A report on Monday said that the number of low-carbon projects which have received funding in the past six months has increased by more than twofold, to 19 projects, worth $43 billion. The majority of these are located in China. A report by Mission Possible Partnership stated that 13 projects, from methanol and aluminium to methanol, reached a decision on investment between November and April. Only one project was in the U.S. It added that eight projects were funded in the same period last year. The green industrial investment boomed during the time when Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, driving up the price of fossil fuels. Faustine Delasalle is the CEO of MPP. She said, "In an increasingly fragmented and unstable environment, fossil fuel dependence has repeatedly shown to be a source of price shocks and supply disruptions as well as economic crises." The MPP, a non-profit organization based in the United States that aims to?boost the growth of low emission industry is supported by both the Bezos Earth Fund as well as the World Economic Forum. Total pipeline of low-carbon industrial project announcements?is 969? in sectors such as chemicals, aviation and metals. China is responsible for 170 out of the announced projects. Other countries in the "sunbelt", such as India and Brazil, have 318. Europe has 211, and the United States has 72. The United States has a large pipeline of projects, but is losing momentum, according to the report. It also noted that over the past 12 months, there were 20 fewer announced projects than in 2012. Reporting by Eric Onstad, Editing by Chris Reese
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Russian drone strikes nuclear fuel storage facility near Chornobyl in Ukraine
Ukrainian officials said that a 'Russian drone' had struck a storage area for spent nuclear fuel near Ukraine’s now-disused Chornobyl plant. They added that the radiation levels remained stable. Separately, the Kyiv General Staff and state atomic agency stated that a container-receiving facility?had partially been destroyed, but no spent fuel had been stored at the time of?attack. The fire that resulted was put out and there were no reported injuries. Russia has not publicly commented on the alleged attack?on the facility which is located?around 15 km (9miles) away from the Chornobyl Plant, the site where the world's biggest nuclear disaster occurred. Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, wrote on X: "This isn't the first time Russian forces have put Ukrainian nuclear facilities in danger." "Russia's nuclear blackmail and threats against nuclear safety are systematic, deliberate, and inacceptable." A Russian drone attacked a containment 'arch that was over the Chornobyl reactor in February 2025. The 'arch had been destroyed by the explosion and meltdown of April 1986. ?Russia denied responsibility. Kyiv has also accused Moscow of attempting to attack the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant located in southeast Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by Tomaszjanowski).
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Embraer observes that airlines are delaying their decisions about plane purchases due to the Iran war
Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said 'on Saturday that some airlines are delaying their decisions on whether or not to exercise their aircraft purchase options due to a lack of certainty over the war in Iran. This uncertainty has led to a rise in 'jet fuel prices. Gomes Neto, the Brazilian planemaker, noted that while there have been no requests to delay deliveries or slowdowns in active sales campaigns he was noticing a growing caution around incremental commitments. He said that some companies who could exercise previously signed options were delaying that to better understand the?evolution of the situation. Embraer has a commercial backlog of nearly five years worth of deliveries. The company is pursuing multiple sales campaigns to sell its E2 family and hopes to close some deals next month at the Farnborough airshow in the United Kingdom. Embraer wants to capitalize on recent agreements, including those with Finnair and Azorra. It believes that the E2 family's fuel-efficiency can increase demand. Gomes Neto stated that several campaigns are currently underway, and the timing of any potential deals is heavily dependent on the customers. "I'm not sure if the commercial aviation sector will have a strong year like last year, but I think it should be good." Embraer is aiming to increase its output. The company has set an internal goal of delivering between 95 and100 commercial aircraft by 2027. This year, the?outlook is between 80 and85 planes. Gomes Neto said that the goal is more dependent on smoother supply chains than it is on geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war being resolved. He said that the bottlenecks in the industry, which have been present since the pandemic, are slowly improving. He added, "It is about getting the?cadence correct." Embraer is also looking to improve margins within its commercial aviation division. Gomes Neto stated that the company has renegotiated older contracts with lower profitability, and is expecting a stronger demand for new agreements to support better pricing.
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Israeli forces kill a Palestinian child and injure his parents on the West Bank
The Palestinian Health Ministry reported that Israeli forces killed and injured a 7-month-old Palestinian child in the Tel Rumeida area south of Hebron, West Bank on Friday evening. The ministry identified the infant as Sam Fahd Abu Haikal, and stated that he died on the scene. His parents were moderately injured by gunshots. The grandmother of the baby said that the family stopped the car when they saw Israeli soldiers and military vehicles in the distance. She claimed that shots were fired at them which they first thought were warning shots. She said that "one bullet hit my grandson and lodged in his mother's cheek, after traversing his face, crossing his head and striking his mother's cheek." The bullet also grazed her father's finger and the mother is currently hospitalized. Israeli military claimed that during Friday's operational activity, soldiers in the Hebron region perceived a vehicle speeding toward them. One soldier fired a single shot at the vehicle. It said that three Palestinians had been injured and taken to hospital for treatment. The military stated that an initial investigation found that those injured were "uninvolved civilians" and that the incident is 'under review'. Tel Rumeida is an area in Hebron where Israeli settlers are under heavy military protection among Palestinian residents. It has been a hotbed of violence for many years, especially when it comes to the Israeli-occupied West Bank. According to a report by the European Union in 2024, more than 3 million Palestinians live in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, including over 700,000.
Zinc's high premium to sibling metal lead might not last: Andy Home
Lead and zinc might be geological sibling metals however their market fortunes have actually been very various in recent months.
London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month zinc rallied to a 20-month high of $3,284 per metric heap in October on the back of an acutely tight raw materials market.
LME lead, by contrast, headed in the opposite direction, weighed down by a mountain of exchange stocks.
Zinc's premium to lead extended to over $1,000 per heap during the 4th quarter of 2024, the widest gap considering that February 2023.
Although the 2 metals primarily come from the same mines, divergent narratives of under-supply in zinc and oversupply in lead have caused funds to position appropriately and seal the cost disparity.
Both metals are down on the start of January but zinc has fallen harder and the premium to lead contracted to $888.50 at the Friday close.
What takes place next to the sisterly trade may be an awful contest as zinc's mine supply recovers and the lead excess grows.
ZINC SUPPLY TENSION
Zinc's October rally included an aspect of positional poker on the London market. The straight-out rate high coincided with a sharp contraction in time-spreads, the cash-to-three months period << CMZN0-3 > flaring out to a backwardation of $63.50. per heap.
However that's not to state that rate relocation wasn't underpinned by. authentic tightness in the zinc focuses. Indeed, the rally. was partially activated by another supply hit after fires at South. African producer Sibanye Stillwater's Century mine in. Australia.
International zinc mine production succumbed to the 3rd straight year. in 2024, forcing smelters to accept ever lower costs for. processing concentrate into refined metal.
Chinese metal production was sliding even before a group of. the country's top 14 operators concurred in August to change. operating rates in a bid to protect margins.
The country's refined zinc output tumbled by practically 7%. year-on-year in 2024, according to local information provider Shanghai. Metal Market.
Lower Chinese run-rates dragged the global zinc market into. a supply-demand deficit of 33,000 heaps in the very first 11 months of. the year, according to the latest assessment from the. International Lead and Zinc Study Hall (ILZSG).
LME zinc stocks, both registered and off-warrant, peaked at. 367,000 lots in August and fell to 324,000 at the end of. November.
LEAD GLUT
LME lead stocks have actually grown greatly over the last two. years. Combined on- and off-warrant inventory rose from simply. 29,000 lots at the start of 2023 to 305,000 loads at the end of. November 2024.
The unrelenting stock construct was just briefly interrupted. in August 2024, when China imported considerable quantities of metal. for the very first time considering that 2019.
Indian brand name metal has actually represented much of the boost,. its share of registered LME stocks rising from absolutely no at the start. of 2023 to 52% at the end of 2024.
Who understood there was a lot lead around?
The scale of stocks increase is confusing, given the ILZSG. assesses worldwide supply and need to have been practically well balanced. in the very first 11 months of 2024.
Moreover, primary lead smelters are struggling with the exact same. margin squeeze as zinc producers because of the overlap in the. two metals' mine production profile.
The most likely cause of the stocks rise is the opaque. secondary production sector, which accounts for a much higher. ratio of supply in the lead market than any other industrial. metal.
Whatever the origin, the bearish optics of high and increasing. stock has actually motivated funds to take huge bets on still. lower prices. Investment gamers are holding a record web long. on the LME lead agreement.
MINDING THE GAP
By contrast, funds are sticking to zinc's bull narrative. and are still considerably net long on the LME zinc contract.
Nevertheless, the narrative is starting to shift.
Zinc mine supply is turning a corner and is anticipated by. ILZSG to recuperate highly this year thanks to a combination of. brand-new mines and restarts of idled centers.
Although global mine production was 370,000 tons lower in. the very first 11 months of 2024, monthly production began increasing. over the back end of the year.
If concentrates availability enhances, zinc smelter output. growth will restore momentum and zinc's relative shortage premium. over sister metal lead need to decline.
That is, if lead market optics don't deteriorate even. even more. More zinc mine supply will undoubtedly suggest more lead. mine supply with the capacity for more exchange stocks. build.
Neither metal is blessed with particularly strong need. dynamics at the moment. Lead usage is dominated by demand for. batteries in the vehicle sector, where lithium-powered. electrical cars are driving sales development. Around half of all. zinc is used in the building sector, which is weak just. about everywhere, especially in China.
ILZSG approximates that worldwide zinc usage rose by a modest 0.7%. year-on-year in January-November 2024, while lead use fell by. 1.3%.
With little enjoyment on the demand side, supply narratives. will continue to play the dominant function in the relative worth. trade between the two metals.
But the geological link in between lead and zinc indicates they. will both be impacted by a recovery in mine production this. year.
It's just a matter of which proves most resistant in cost.
The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .
(source: Reuters)