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Gold rises on weaker dollar following Fed rate cut
Gold prices rose Thursday on a soft dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis point and announced a gradual ease for the remainder of the year. This boosted the metal's appeal. As of 1144 GMT, spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,667.12 an ounce. On Wednesday, prices reached a new record of $3 707.40. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.5% to $3701.00. Dollar pared its recent gains, and the dollar hovered around a two-month high. This made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. The yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes also dropped. The dollar's weakness has returned, and this has supported gold prices. However, the rate decision was on the dovish end, as the statement or dot plots indicated that two rate cuts would be coming in the next year, according to Fawad Rasaqzada. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday, and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the action as risk-management in response to the weakening of the labor market. He said that the Fed is in a situation where it has "meetings by meetings" in regards to the interest rate outlook. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "the bull run in gold is still very much present and we are likely to see record highs persist." According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates again by 25 basis points at its next meeting in November. ANZ said that it expects gold will outperform the early stages of the easing cycle. The bank said that the demand for safe haven assets in a geopolitical environment of uncertainty is likely to increase investor demand. The price of spot silver was up 0.5% at $41.84 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.9%, to $1,390.43, while palladium fell 1% to $1,142.19/oz. (Reporting from Ishaan Mukherjee, Anmol Choubey and Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru, and editing by Jan Harvey Frances Kerry, and Bernadette baum)
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Exxon asks for political support from the US to overturn EU climate law
Exxon Mobil has intensified its attacks on a European Union law on corporate sustainability and taken their concerns directly to U.S. president Donald Trump. They warned that the regulation would lead to more companies leaving Europe. Last year, the EU adopted its corporate sustainability due diligence (CSDD) directive. This mandates that companies fix any human rights or environmental issues in their supply chains or risk a base fine of 5% on global turnover. The European Commission, in response to the criticism of businesses and German and French leaders that the law will harm the competitiveness of the EU, proposed a series of changes to the law earlier this year. In an interview, Exxon CEO Darren Woods said that it would not be enough and called for the law to completely be revoked. Woods stated that he had spoken to Trump, and other members of Trump's administration who are involved in trade and EU policy. The administration also expressed concerns over CSDDD during trade negotiations. Washington and Brussels are still at odds over the simmering dispute, which has recently led to the US considering sanctions against EU officials for separate tech legislation. Woods noted that Woods' oil company has closed, sold or exited 19 of its operations because, according to him, red tape was impeding the business. This is yet another piece of legislation which would either accelerate this incentive or cause businesses to reduce their activities in Europe. The European Commission didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Woods added that an exorbitant fine of 5% on global sales would "break the bones" of Exxon. Last year, the top U.S. oil producers' sales totaled $339 billion. U.S. legislators are also doing their part to help. In March, Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee introduced a bill to protect American companies against being forced to comply to CSDDD. Next month, EU legislators and countries will begin negotiations to change the policy. Environmental activists are appalled by the move to weaken corporate accountability. Exxon announced on Thursday that it will also be pausing its investment of 100 millions euros ($118) in European Plastic Recycling due to separate EU draft rules. Woods expressed his hope that U.S. legislators would make progress in addressing CSDDD. However, he has been disappointed with the response from EU regulators so far. He said, "There's some movement but we need resolution sooner than later." Sheila Dang reported from Houston, Kate Abnett contributed additional reporting and Nathan Crooks edited the story.
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Kuwait Oil Minister expects demand to increase after US rate reduction
Kuwait's oil minister Tariq al-Roumi stated on Thursday that he expected higher demand for oil following the U.S. rate cut this week, especially from Asian markets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first since December. He also said that he expects new sanctions against Russia to have a positive effect on the oil price. Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the U.S. is prepared to impose new energy sanctions against Russia, provided all NATO countries stop purchasing Russian oil. Eight OPEC+ member countries agreed on September 7, to increase output by 137,000 bpd for October. This is a continuation of the policy of the group since April, which has been to increase production after years of cutting to support the oil markets. Al-Roumi stated that despite the agreement to increase output, "prices were more than satisfactory". He added, "We expected the worst, but everything is fine." The oil market is confusing and difficult to predict. The Minister made these remarks at an event marking the start of oil production at Kuwait Oil Company's Mutriba Field, which is targeting a light oil output between 80,000 to 120,000 bpd. At the event, KOC CEO Ahmad Al-Aidan said: "This step will help Kuwait achieve its strategy of reaching a production capacity for oil of 4 million barrels per day by 2035." The current production capacity is less than 3 million bpd. Reporting by Ahmed Hagagy, Writing by Tala RAMAdan and Ahmed Elimam, Editing by Bernadette BAUCH and Jan Harvey
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Dollar firms after Fed lowers rates and copper falls
The copper price fell on Thursday, as traders took profits after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there would be no further aggressive easing. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to $9,960.50 a tonne as of 0940 GMT after hitting a low for a week on Wednesday, $9,925. Powell, in his press conference, reacted against the idea of larger cuts. Dollar index rose by 0.1%, to 96.98, on the back of Mr. Trump's remarks. However, it is still down 10.6% for this year. The dollar index is still down around 10.6% this year. Dan Smith, managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics said that the rate decision made on Wednesday was a key driver behind copper's drop. He also pointed out a technical charting pattern called a "triple-top". Smith stated that there has been a significant amount of resistance in the copper market around $10,160. Smith said that the price has turned three times at this point in recent months, which indicates the current momentum will be to the downside. The rest of the base-metals complex was mostly in the red. Aluminium fell as much as 0.6%, to $2,665.50 per ton. This is a new low for the week. It was also down 0.2% at 0940 GMT. The cash aluminum contract premium is added to the contract for three months On Thursday, the price of a ton had dropped to $4 from $16 on Tuesday. Lead was unchanged at $2,012 a ton. Nickel and tin also fell. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi, Harikrishnan Nair, Ed Osmond and Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting and editing by Amy Lv & Lewis Jackson)
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Central bank of UAE says that the UAE economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025 due to higher oil production.
Central bank of the United Arab Emirates said that the economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025 compared to an earlier forecast. This is due to increased oil production and growth in non-hydrocarbon sectors. In a quarterly report, the bank stated that it expects hydrocarbon production to increase in accordance with OPEC+ quotas by 5.8% by 2025 and 6.5% by next year. The report stated that "this real adjustment in hydrocarbon production is expected to offset the negative impact on government revenue of the decline in crude oil prices, creating a ripple effect for non-hydrocarbon sector." The UAE is a major oil exporter and has intensified plans to diversify their economy. In the first quarter, the non-hydrocarbons sector accounted for 77.1% total GDP. The central bank projects that the non-hydrocarbon GNP will grow by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively in 2025, and 2026. This growth is likely to be boosted indirectly by the higher hydrocarbon growth through increased investment, government expenditure and confidence. The UAE economy grew by 3.9% in the first three months of the year, led by a non-hydrocarbon expansion of 5.3%. This was driven by manufacturing, financial services and construction sectors. Reporting by Rachna uppal; editing by Andrew Cawthorne
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Stocks and the dollar rise after Fed cuts, but now focus is on BoE
The dollar and stocks both rose on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its interest rates for the first time this year. Meanwhile, French politics kept the markets in France jittery. And the pound remained steady ahead of the Bank of England's rate announcement. The Fed's steady-as-she-goes-message from what had been a politically charged meeting lifted both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Wall Street futures 0.5%, despite an initially mixed reaction from U.S. traders on Wednesday. Asia also rallied over night. Chinese stocks reached a decade-high as local chipmakers rejoiced at reports that U.S. giant Nvidia was banned in China. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan's Nikkei ended all more than 1% higher. The dollar's rise to nearly 0.2% on the currency market may also have been a relief for firms that export to countries other than the United States after a recent plunge to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years. The Fed's "dot plot", which is closely monitored, had indicated that two additional rate reductions would be made over the remaining two meetings of this year but only one in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also moderated expectations by saying that the central bank didn't need to act quickly, though analysts admit this could change. Richard Cochinos, RBC Capital Markets, said: "We look beyond the volatility of one or two days to find underlying trends." In this case, we expect a weaker U.S. Dollar," Cochinos said. He pointed to the expectation of U.S. interest rates falling to 3% in 2013. The euro was largely unchanged at $1.1825, and the sterling was at $1.36. It is widely expected that the BoE will keep UK interest rates at 4% in the future. The main focus will be whether the British central banks slows down the pace of its 100 billion pounds a year reduction in government bond holdings in response to the recent volatility on UK bond markets. The BoE poll conducted in August showed that economists expected the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to reduce the pace of monetary policy to 67.5 billion pounds (92.2 billion dollars). This is a larger drop than the 72 billion pounds predicted by the BoE poll. In response to a 25 basis point rate reduction announced by its central bank earlier, the Norwegian crown softened just a little. The Norwegian crown was close to its three-year high against the dollar, and was at a two-month high when compared with the euro. New Zealand's Dollar fell after the data showed that the economy of the country shrank much more than expected. FRENCH FOCUS After the release of August's weaker than expected labour market data, the Australian dollar fell 0.4%. The bond markets are still on the rise, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropping to 4.06%, and the two-year rate, which is rising with traders' expectation of higher Fed Funds rates, at 3.53 %. The benchmark yield for the Euro Zone, Germany's 10-year bond, fell by 0.5 basis points, to 2.67%. However, attention was again focused on France, as its bond yields moved above Italy's. Brent crude oil fell 0.2% to $67.87 a barrel. Gold, a safe haven, rose 0.2% to $3,665 an ounce.
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Russia announces changes to its budget aimed at decreasing oil revenue dependence
The Russian Finance Ministry announced on Thursday a new measure that it claimed was designed to shield the state budget against oil price fluctuations as well as Western sanctions targeted at Russian energy exports. The government is lowering the price cutoff for oil that oil revenues are deposited into the fiscal reserves fund. This will ensure the fund has enough money to replenish it. At a public meeting, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that "to make our finances more robust, we propose a reduction of dependence on different constraints, whether they are price-related or volume related, in the budget’s reliance on revenues from oil and gas". Siluanov's new measure, which he sought to reinstate the budget rule, after it had been abandoned following the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, is a victory. However, Russian media claimed that he wanted a larger reduction. The budget is more vulnerable to a drop in oil prices if the rule isn't in place. Siluanov stated that the price cutoff would be reduced by $1 per year, bringing it down to $55 a barrel in 2030. Currently, the cut-off price for barrels is $60. The draft budget will be presented to the parliament on 29 September. Currently, the fiscal reserve fund has approximately 4 trillion roubles (48.25 billion dollars) available. The government plans to use 447 billion roubles (5.39 billion dollars) of the fund to cover a part of the deficit expected to exceed 1.7% GDP. Siluanov stated that the new measures will allow the state budget to reduce the share of revenues from energy to around 22% in the first eight month of 2025, down from 25%. ($1 = 82,9000 roubles). (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn. Darya Corsunskaya.
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Dollar gains after Fed Chair's remarks as gold falls further from records
Gold fell further from its previous session record, as the dollar rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve took a more measured approach to future easing in response to a widely anticipated 25 basis point interest rate reduction. As of 0801 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1% to $3,657.21 an ounce. Prices reached a record-high of $3,707,40 on Wednesday before falling 0.8%. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.7% to $3691.0. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday, and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the action as risk-management in response to a weakening labour market. He said that the Fed was in a situation where it is "meeting by meeting" in regards to interest rate outlook. Peter Fertig, an analyst at Quantitative Commodity Analysis, said that there was a "bit of disappointment" in the gold market, as the market had expected the Fed to reduce the opportunity costs for gold holdings (more than they did). Gold became more expensive for holders of other currencies due to the 0.2% increase in the dollar. On Wednesday, it fell to its lowest level in more than three-and-a half years. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates again by 25 bp at its next meeting in October. ANZ said that it expects gold will outperform the early stages of the easing cycle. The bank said that the demand for safe haven assets in a geopolitical environment of uncertainty is likely to increase investor demand. The SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings dropped 0.44% on Wednesday to 975.66 tons from 979.95 on Tuesday. The price of spot silver increased by 0.1%, to $41.70 an ounce. Platinum rose 2%, to $1,389.57, and palladium remained unchanged at $1,154.0/oz. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)
LME puts 2022 nickel crisis behind it as trading booms: Andy Home
The London Metal Exchange ( LME) has now completely recuperated from its neardeath nickel crisis in 2022, with trading activity in 2015 the strongest given that 2015 and the fourth highest on record.
Typical everyday volumes at the 148-year-old institution were 664,698 lots in 2024, up by 18.2% on 2023, the LME stated. Nickel volumes jumped by 58.8% and by the end of the year were back at levels seen in 2021 prior to the marketplace disaster and suspension of trading in March 2022.
Underpinning the recovery has been a steep rise in LME nickel stock, part of a wider pattern of higher exchange stocks, and restored investor interest in the industrial metals sector.
The tide of fund money also raised volumes on the CME , which has actually been aggressively broadening its metals portfolio to take on the LME.
Certainly, the world of metals trading is ending up being an ever more objected to arena with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE). aiming to expand its global existence and new gamers. providing alternative pricing designs.
STOCKS LIQUIDITY
The LME's nickel crisis was intensified by low stocks and the. lack of physical shipment choices available to big short. position holders such as China's Tsingshan Group.
The exchange has given that approved as great delivery six brand-new. brand names of nickel, five from China and one from Indonesia.
LME nickel stock, both on-warrant and off-warrant, grew. to almost 230,000 metric tons at the end of November 2024 from. under 40,000 in May 2023.
LME stocks are now much more lined up with nickel market. dynamics, which has improved both self-confidence and trading. volumes.
Nickel is simply one element of a bigger turn of the. stock cycle. LME stocks of all metals were 2.2 million loads. at the end of November, up by 505,000 heaps on the start of 2024. and more than double levels seen over much of 2022.
More stock indicates more financing and, in the case of. aluminium and zinc in particular, more stocks churn as traders. arbitrage storage differentials.
All the LME base metals except tin saw higher exchange stock. levels in 2015, which assists describe the rise in activity. across all the core contracts.
THE INVESTMENT RADAR
Tin volumes leapt by 25.9% in 2024 relative to 2023 even. though it was the only metal to see exchange stocks decline over. the year.
That speaks to the other huge chauffeur of increased LME. activity last year - the return of financiers to the base metals. markets.
Funds were holding record long places on the LME tin. agreement in September, reflecting more comprehensive investment interest in. the clean-energy metals story.
Not a surprise that copper volumes on the LME and the CME. exchanges surged in the first half of 2024 as funds stampeded. into a market that was trading at record small highs.
Retail financiers are likewise being drawn into metals trading.
CME's micro copper agreement, which the exchange states is. customized to the private financier, has seen volumes more. than double in both 2023 and 2024. Although each agreement is for. just 2,500 pounds of copper, last year's volumes were equivalent. to over 3.3 million tons.
However, fund flows in copper peaked with the price and all. three significant exchanges saw volumes slide over the second part of. 2024.
Funds also left the tin market after September with volume. growth in the LME contract slowing to simply 8.9% in December from. over 40% in the second quarter.
Indeed, overall LME volumes contracted in December for the. very first time because March 2023 as a resurgent dollar and a. record-breaking U.S. stock market saw metals once again fall off. the investor radar. For for how long remains to be seen.
MORE CONTRACTS, MORE COMPETITORS
The LME can now boast three increasingly liquid steel. contracts, although it has actually lost out to the CME when it comes to. battery metals such as cobalt and lithium.
The CME's lithium hydroxide contract saw volumes surge from. 20,307 lots in 2023 to 91,094 in 2015, making it one of the most. liquid recommendation point beyond China.
CME cobalt volumes of 28,720 lots last year overshadowed the. 1,600 lots traded on the London contract.
The Shanghai exchange, on the other hand, has fleshed out its core. base metals portfolio with new lead, nickel and tin options. agreements and an alumina agreement that notched up volumes of. over 79 million lots in its first complete year of trading.
ShFE has actually made obvious of its ambition to lure more. overseas players to the Shanghai market and has been looking at. global shipment points to attain benchmark rates. status.
With the CME's aluminium futures and choices volumes also. growing in 2015, the LME's dominant role in global metals. rates is facing dangers from both East and West in addition to brand-new. players looking for a piece of the metals trading action.
BHP's suspension of its nickel operations in 2015. appeared to ambuscade strategies by ABAXX Commodity Exchange and Global. Commodities Holdings (GCH) to launch alternative rates. designs.
But ABAXX released its nickel sulphate contract on Jan. 10. and has actually just revealed the very first block trade carried out between. Traxys and HNK Alpha.
GCH, meanwhile, posted on LinkedIn on Friday that the. world's first genuinely physical nickel contract is coming to life. with a bid-ask spread for full-plate metal in Rotterdam.
There may yet be a sting in the tail of the LME nickel. legend.
The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .
(source: Reuters)