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Brazil's trade surplus will be higher in 2026 than its own projections, after exceeding them last year
The Ministry of Development Industry Trade and Services announced on Tuesday that Brazil is expecting a trade surplus between $70 billion and $90 billion by?2026. Last year's results exceeded government expectations. Latin America's biggest economy posted a $68.3-billion surplus in 2025. This is down from $74.2-billion in 2024, as imports increased faster than exports. This shows the resilience of the economy, despite high borrowing rates to control inflation. The surplus was higher than the most recent estimate of $61 billion by the Ministry. It followed a December surplus of $9.6 Billion. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said at a press briefing that he was "optimistic" about the growth of foreign trade, even if there were greater geopolitical instabilities. BRAZIL HOPEFUL FOR TRADE DEALS Alckmin who is also the head of the ministry said that the 'government' remains hopeful about concluding a deal between Mercosur, the South American block, and the European Union. He added that he expects Mercosur to seal a free-trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates. Brazil is aiming to extend preferential tariffs with India, Mexico and Canada. Imports increased 6.7% last year while exports rose by 3.5%. This was despite the fact that U.S. tariffs were imposed on several products, which were later partially reversed. Alckmin also said that Brazil expects to progress talks with the U.S., and address non-tariff concerns involving rare Earths, big technology and data centers. He said that Brazil had abundant renewable energy. Alckmin was asked about the impact of Venezuelan oil production following the capture by the U.S. of Venezuela's president. He acknowledged that oil is Brazil's number one export but said any market effects would not be immediately. He said that although Venezuela has large oil deposits, it is not possible to achieve anything overnight. "Investment is required," he added. By the Numbers Brazilian export gains in 2025 were largely driven by increased shipments of beef, soybeans, corn, and coffee, which offset annual declines for crude oil?and iron ore due to falling commodity prices. China remains Brazil's largest trading partner. Exports to China increased by 6%, reaching $100 billion. This represents nearly 30% of Brazil's total sales overseas. Brazilian exports to the United States fell 6.6%, to $37.7billion. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Matthew Lewis and Rod Nickel in Brasilia)
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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended gains on Tuesday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets after the 'U.S. The?capture' of Venezuela's President fueled global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. Payroll data to gain insight into the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 01:40 pm, spot gold had risen 0.8% to $4,485.39 an ounce. ET (1840 GMT), following a nearly 3-percent gain in the previous day, prices are now closer to the record high $4,549.71 set on December 24. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery settled?1% higher, at $4496.010. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela has also fueled the demand for safe havens like gold and silver. After the U.S. had seized Maduro and taken him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president pleaded 'not guilty' to charges of narcotics. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the last year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be looking at Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December, a slight decrease from the 64,000 created in November. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Tom Barkin, the Richmond Fed president, said that future rate changes need to be "finely-tuned" in order to balance both unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would surge to $4800 by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. They cited falling interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, whose all-time record high was $83.62 per ounce on December 29, gained 5.4%, to $80.68. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This was due to a rise in industrial demand and investor interest. Palladium was 5.9% higher, at $1,821.68 an ounce. Spot platinum rose 7.2% to $2,435.20. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Vijay Kishore, and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Futures prices for soybeans and grains are rising as China purchases more US supplies
Chicago Board of Trade Soybean futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as China purchased more U.S. soybeans. The corn and wheat futures both rose slightly as the agricultural markets continued to gain after recovering?on Monday? from recent multi-week?lows. Traders were watching closely the?Chinese?demand for U.S. soybeans after Washington announced in late October Beijing's agreement to purchase supplies as part a truce between the two countries in their trade war. Three traders said that China's stockpiler Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soy cargoes this week, totaling around 600,000 tons. U.S. Department?Agriculture confirmed later that exporters had sold 336,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans to China for delivery in 2025/2026. Traders said China's total U.S. soya purchases have risen to 10 million tons in the time since the trade truce. This is more than 80% of the 12 million metric tonnes that U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent had previously stated China would buy by the end?of February. Jim Gerlach of A/C Trading, Indiana, stated that some traders feared Beijing would stop buying after the U.S. captured Venezuela's president, a Chinese strategic partner. Gerlach stated that "the fact that they purchased beans despite the goings on is supportive." The most active CBOT soybean contracts were up a cent to $10.63 per bushel at 11:30 am CST (1730 GMT). The benchmark contract reached its lowest level in October on Friday. CBOT Corn rose by 2 cents to $4.46-1/2 per bushel. CBOT Wheat gained 1/2 cent to $5.13 per bushel. On Friday, wheat reached its lowest level since October. Corn hit a 2-week low on Monday and then turned higher. Gerlach stated that the fear of dry weather damaging corn crops in Argentina was a factor in driving prices. Analysts kept an eye out for dryness in the U.S. wheat belts. Josh Lawrence, an advisor consultant at IKON Commodities, said that "pockets of dryness" in the U.S. Plains supported wheat. The gains were still limited due to the abundance of supplies from major exporting nations. Grain traders also watched investor flows, which are linked to changes in commodity indexes and were looking forward to the crop data that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release next Monday.
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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended gains on Tuesday due to the demand for safe-haven assets after 'the U.S. The capture of Venezuelan president fuelled global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. employment data to gain insight into Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 11:50 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4,488.10 an ounce. After a near 3% increase in the previous session at 1650 GMT, prices are now closer to the record high price of $4,497.11 set on December 24. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery advanced by?1% to $4496. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela fueled the demand for safe havens like gold and silver. After the U.S. had seized Maduro and taken him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president pleaded not guilt?on Monday? to narcotics? charges. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the last year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be watching Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December. This is a slight decrease from the 64,000 jobs added the previous month. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that future rate changes need to be "finely-tuned" in order to balance both unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would surge to $4800 by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. They cited falling interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, whose all-time record high was $83.62 per ounce on December 29, gained 5.3% to $80.57. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This was due to a rise in industrial demand and investor interest. Palladium was 6.3% higher, at $1,815 an ounce. Spot platinum rose 6.5% to $2,417.70. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Vijay Kishore and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Investors await economic data to see if stocks will rise and the dollar inch up.
Investors focused on the key data that will be released later this week to help gauge the outlook of the Federal Reserve policy. Prices of oil are falling. Investors were monitoring developments in . Maria Corina Machado has promised to return to her country as soon as possible, hailing U.S. president Donald Trump for overthrowing her opponent, Nicolas Maduro. She also declared that her movement was ready to win an election free of corruption. Trump's administration will meet with executives of oil companies this week to discuss increasing production in Venezuela. There's a lot of retooling needed to prepare these downstream producers for this crude oil. It is possible - and will probably be. Mark Malek is chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. He said that the biggest questions are how long it will take to invest, how much, and by whom. Stock Indices Climb Investors?bet Washington that it would allow U.S. companies access to Venezuelan oil reserves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by?173.14 or 0.35% to 49,150.32. The?S&P 500 rose by 27.19 or 0.39% to 6,929.24. And the Nasdaq Composite grew 110.14 or 0.47% to 23,505.95. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 5.53 points or 0.54% to 1,033.55. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.66%. Investors remain confident in economic prospects despite the escalating tensions on geopolitical fronts. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket?of currencies including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.18%, reaching 98.56. U.S. ECONOMIC DATA TO SET MARKET TONE Markets were buoyed by the expectation of interest rate reductions in the United States. Traders focused on the U.S. employment report due Friday. This will affect market expectations on monetary policy. According to LSEG, financial markets are pricing two Fed rate reductions this year. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 2 basis points to 4.185% from 4.163% on Monday. U.S. crude dropped 0.27%, to $58.16 per barrel. Brent fell to $61.65 a barrel, down by 0.18%. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as demand for safe-haven assets boosted the price. Gold spot was up 0.9% to $4,486.12 an ounce at 11:54 am?ET (1654 GMT) after nearly 3% gains in the previous session. Nickel soared more than 9% and copper jumped to a new all-time peak, as concerns about supply fueled a rally early in the year for industrial metals.
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Why is Somaliland strategically important?
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, met with the President of Somaliland Tuesday. This was 10 days after Israel officially recognised the breakaway region of?the Horn of Africa' as a sovereign and independent state. Somalia has protested the move, saying that it is a threat to its sovereignty. A Somaliland source and regional diplomat have said other countries are preparing to follow their lead and'recognise Somaliland. U.S. U.S. Why is the location of Somaliland strategic? Somaliland is located at the intersection of the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Its Berbera Port provides access to the busiest shipping routes in the world. Analysts believe that Israel's recognition of Somaliland is a response to the Houthi militia's attacks on ships plying these routes. This could lead to an agreement for military cooperation between Israel and Somaliland. Somaliland has, however, denied that recognition would allow Israel to set up military bases or resettle?Palestinians in Gaza. What other countries could?recognise Somaliland? Ethiopia, Africa's most populous landlocked country, also has its eyes on Somaliland. In 2024, it announced a memorandum to lease a region around the Berbera Port in exchange for Addis Ababa recognizing the region's independent status. This deal provoked an angry response in Somalia and brought the Mogadishu Government closer to Egypt. Egypt has been at odds with Ethiopia over Addis Ababa’s construction of?a vast dam on the Nile River for years. Eritrea is another Ethiopian foe. Turkey maintains close ties to both Ethiopia and Somalia. It trains Somalia's security force and provides development assistance as a way of gaining a foothold along the main global shipping route. Ethiopia agreed to work with Somalia in December 2024 after talks were mediated by Turkey. However, it now appears to be preparing to recognize Somaliland. India has 'denied' talk on X about it also preparing for recognition of Somaliland. However, some analysts say that India should do this to counter Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa and specifically Djibouti as well as Kenya?and Tanzania. United Arab Emirates has carved out its own sphere in the region. The Abraham Accords, mediated by the United States, normalised Israel's relations in 2020. The Berbera Port is run by Dubai's state-owned company DP World. It also runs Berbera Airport and a Free Trade Zone between the airport and port. (Written by Silvia Aloisi and William Maclean)
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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended its gains on Tuesday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets after the?U.S. The capture of Venezuela's President sparked global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. Payroll data to gain insight into the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 09:55 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4,488.10 an ounce. After a near 3% rise in the previous session (1455 GMT), prices are now a little closer to the December 24 record high of $4,497.11. U.S. Gold futures for?delivery in February rose 1.1% to $4498.70. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela has also fueled the demand for gold, silver and other safe havens. After the U.S. took him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro plead not guilty Monday?to charges of narcotics. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the past year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be looking at Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December. This represents a slight decrease from the 64,000 added the month before. According to?LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that future rate changes need to be "fine-tuned"?to balance unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would?surge? to $4,800 in the fourth quarter this year. They cited falling 'interest rates', changes of leadership at the Federal Reserve, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, which reached an all-time peak of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, increased 4.8% to $80.18. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This is due to a rise in industrial and investor demand. Palladium was 5.2% higher, at $1,795.68 an ounce. Spot platinum traded up 5.2% to $2,388.50. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey)
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Nickel surges after new mine disruptions and copper reaches record highs
The price of copper soared on Tuesday, as concerns about supply fueled a rally in the early part of the year. Nickel also reached a 15-month high above $18,000 per metric ton due to?Indonesia’s mine production curbs. In official open-outcry trading on the?London Metal Exchange, benchmark three-month copper was up 1.8% to $13,225 per ton. It had earlier jumped by as much as a whopping 3.1% to $13,387.50. Red metal prices have already increased by 6.6% since 2026. On Monday, they crossed $13,000, after a 42.2% increase last year. Ewa Mannthey, ING analyst, said that "Copper's?"move above $13,000" is driven by a growing discrepancy between a structurally tight supply of copper and a accelerating demand for it from?electrification projects and data centres. "Years underinvestment and mine disruptions continue to leave the market with little cushion." A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde gold and copper mine in northern Chile?has re-invigorated supply concerns. Meanwhile, Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous reported a delay to the?launch of its Ecuadorian mine's second phase. LME Copper Stocks Inventory levels on the Comex exchange have dropped to their lowest level since November 17. The price of copper is expected to rise due to the possibility of a U.S. tariff on the metal, resulting in a shortage of supplies outside the United States. Nickel jumped 6.1% to $18,045 per ton. This is the highest price since October 7, 2024, due to?Indonesia’s plans to reduce output. Miners can refer to the previously approved quotas for 2026 until March 31, while new quotas will be reviewed. Manthey stated that "Indonesia’s tightening of its grip on production, via slower...approvals and planned quota reductions in 2026, has proven to be?highly efficient at raising prices in the short-term." "But with an expected surplus of a significant amount in 2026, the rally is unlikely to continue unless either supply curbs are deepened or demand improves meaningfully." Aluminium increased by 0.8%, reaching $3,111 per ton. Zinc was up 1.5%, at $3,241.50, after hitting its highest level since October 2024. Lead climbed 1.2%, to $2,048. The price of tin rose by 4.6%, to $44,400. It had previously risen as high as 7.4% and reached its highest level since march 2022. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Joe Bavier and Lewis Jackson; Additional reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan)
Shanghai frenzy fuels alumina's record-breaking rally: Andy Home
Alumina costs have actually skyrocketed to record highs this week, compressing margins at the world's. aluminium smelters which transform the intermediate product into. metal.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) cash rate, indexed. to Platts benchmark Australian alumina assessment, closed. Wednesday at $633.35 per metric heap, lifting the ratio to the. aluminium cost to almost 25%.
The alumina-aluminium ratio was just 15% at the start of. 2024, when alumina was priced at $350 per heap.
A series of supply interruptions have driven the alumina price. higher this year. The trigger for the current cost jump was news. of export problems in Guinea, the major import source of bauxite. for China's alumina refineries.
The physical alumina market is undoubtedly tight however the. explosive nature of the price action also indicates a speculative. craze on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE).
SHANGHAI BOOM
Nearly 25 million heaps were negotiated on the ShFE alumina. agreement on Wednesday, a record daily high and comparable to. nearly a fifth of worldwide annual production.
Open interest has likewise skyrocketed to life-of-contract highs as. financiers have actually purchased into a gradually increasing market.
The exchange changed both trading limitations and margins on. Thursday, imposing a percentage point premium on speculative. positions relative to industrial hedge positions.
This is standard operating procedure for China's exchanges. in the face of speculative surges such as that currently washing. into the Shanghai alumina market.
This sort of futures price volatility is a new phenomenon. for the alumina market.
Both the LME and its U.S. peer CME Group deal alumina. contracts but neither is liquid. The explosive growth in the. Shanghai contract, by contrast, has changed the dynamic in between. paper and physical markets because trading began in June last. year.
This is the second bout of turbulence on the Shanghai market. after a huge price spike in January, likewise due to concerns. about Guinean bauxite supply.
ALL EYES ON GUINEA
The cost sensitivity to occasions in Guinea highlights how. dependent China's alumina refineries have become on West African. bauxite.
China's bauxite mining sector has been struck by multiple waves. of environmental examinations, limiting domestic supply and. motivating more alumina refineries to look overseas for their. basic material.
Imports of Indonesian bauxite stopped early 2023 after the. Indonesian government prohibited exports in a drive to force its. miners downstream into refining and smelting.
Guinea has quickly emerged as China's primary bauxite provider. Imports doubled in between 2000 and 2023 to nearly 100 million loads. and were up by another 13% in the first 8 months of this. year.
The January alumina panic was down to an explosion at an oil. terminal in the Guinean port of Conakry. This time around it's. news that a regional subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium has. had its bauxite exports suspended by customs.
Although extremely overstated, the cost response in Shanghai. is sensible, given the absence of alternative bauxite supply and. tighter conditions in the alumina market itself.
SUPPLY HITS
Alumina supply has taken multiple hits this year.
U.S. manufacturer Alcoa revealed in January the. permanent closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia. The. ramp-down was set up to be finished by the third quarter.
In May Rio Tinto stated force majeure on. shipments from its refineries in Queensland due to restricted. gas capacity levels.
Century Aluminum's operations in Jamaica were. briefly disrupted by Cyclone Beryl in September and South32. has flagged issues about its Australian operations. due to conditions on its operating licence required by. ecological regulators.
Meanwhile, Chinese demand for alumina has actually been growing. strongly as the country's smelters have gained from enhanced. power supply, particularly in the hydro-rich province of Yunnan.
National aluminium output increased by 4.4% year-on-year in the. initially eight months of 2024 with annualised run-rates increasing. by almost 1.5 million tons because December.
That said, China at a nationwide level doesn't appear to be. physically short of alumina considering that it continues to export. significant quantities to Russia.
Indeed, exports to Russia rose by 41% year-on-year to 1.0. million loads in January-April, turning China from net importer. to net exporter of the intermediate item.
FUTURE( S) DISRUPTION
However physical availability is not the same as exchange. accessibility.
ShFE alumina stocks have come by over half because. June to 103,416 loads. The result is time-spread tightness with. the premium for cash relative to forward agreements flaring larger. today.
Short-position holders' ability to provide physical product. will depend on just how much alumina is located at ShFE's four. delivery points in the provinces of Shandong, Henan, Gansu and. Xinjiang.
Much also hangs on how major the danger of interruption to. Guinean bauxite deliveries is. The January scare rapidly went away. and there's no sign the current incident is the precursor. of a national change of policy around exports.
What has actually changed, however, is the response time to such. events.
Before the arrival of the Shanghai futures contract, area. alumina was priced by physical freight deals, which can be. scarce in a market controlled by yearly supply. contracts.
Now a heading from Guinea can move the futures rate in. seconds, producing a detach in between paper and physical. markets.
This added volatility is going to make the formerly. relaxing alumina market a much more unstable place.
It's also going to make smelter costs a lot more. unforeseeable with a potential knock-on impact on the cost of. aluminium itself.
(source: Reuters)