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Iron ore outlook dims as China stocks, steel output fade: Russell

The cost of iron ore has dropped for a sixth consecutive week as China's. steel sector continues to struggle and port inventories of the. basic material stop increasing.

Singapore Exchange futures ended at $101.49 a. metric lot on Aug. 9, up a touch from the four-month closing low. of $100.14 the previous day.

The benchmark agreement has actually declined weekly considering that July 5. and is down 29% from its peak up until now in 2024 of $143.60 a ton,. reached in the first week of the year.

While the decreasing cost is not rather a capitulation, it. does show market sentiment has actually shifted far from optimism that. Beijing's efforts to increase the beleaguered building sector. would improve steel demand, to the reality that steel mills are. having a hard time for revenues and sales.

Current cost moves and data on China's steel sector, which. accounts for just over half of international output, have been bearish.

Standard Shanghai steel rebar contracts ended last. week at 3,286 yuan ($ 458.55) a ton, the most affordable close given that. October 2020, and they are now down 20% since the start of the. year.

The China Iron and Steel Association said unrefined steel output. at its members' mills was 1.9735 million tons daily in the. period from July 21 to 31, down 8.1% from the prior 10-day. period, with the market association blaming soft costs.

Official steel production information for July is anticipated this. week, but is not likely to alter the declining pattern seen so far. in 2024, with National Bureau of Statistics data showing crude. steel output of 530.7 million heaps in the first half of this. year was down 1.1% from the matching 2023 duration.

China's steel acquiring managers' index fell by 5.3 points. to an one-year low of 42.5 points in July, substantially listed below. the 50 level that demarcates growth from contraction, data. from the China Steel Logistics Expert Committee showed.

IRON ORE IMPORTS

While steel's issues have actually weighed on iron ore costs, up until now. this year import volumes have held up relatively well.

This has actually largely been driven by restocking with port. stocks kept track of by experts SteelHome << SH-TOT-IRONINV >. increasing from a>seven-year low of 104.9 million lots in October to. a 27-month high of 151.8 million in the week to July 26. In the 2 weeks considering that, stockpiles have actually reduced a little to. 150.4 million lots in the 7 days to Aug. 9, suggesting that. stock restocking may be mainly total. It is likewise worth noting that China's iron ore imports rose. 6.7% to 713.77 million tons in the very first 7 months of the. year compared to the same duration in 2023. This was a boost of 44.31 million heaps, a figure

close. to the increase of 46.9 million in port stocks because the. October low. It appears that steel mills and traders have capitalized. of the decreasing pattern in iron ore costs to restore. inventories, today that they are at reasonably high levels ,. the question is whether there is any appetite to continue adding. to them. It seems that August's iron ore imports will remain healthy,. with product experts Kpler tracking 97 million heaps up until now, a. figure most likely to rise before completion of the month as more. freights are examined. July's official imports were 102.81 million tons, and the. pattern up until now this year has seen imports anchored in a narrow. variety either side of 100 million. But with steel output decreasing and the complete year unlikely. to match in 2015's 1.02 billion lots

, it is tough to be bullish. on iron ore import volumes and rates . The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)