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The specter of stagflation clouds Fed's optimism
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The market is optimistic about monetary policy. Rising equity prices and falling bond values are a good indicator of this. A rate cut next week at the Fed meeting has a decent chance to be a big one. Wall Street closed with new record highs over night, Taiwan's benchmark has reached a new peak and Japan's Nikkei index is moving back to Tuesday's unprecedented level. The unquestionable weakness of labour market indicates that policy easing will be imminent. The question is, however, how much the Fed's rate cut trajectory is complicated by the still-sticky inflation. Markets will receive two crucial days of data, namely PPI today and CPI the following day. The Fed would be forced to take a risky course of action if inflation levels were high. The market currently has 66 basis point of easing priced for the end of the year, with 7% odds on a 50 basis-point cut coming next Wednesday. The Fed is still the most important story on the global markets, but European investors should keep an eye on the geopolitical situation after NATO member Poland shot down for the first time apparent Russian drones it claimed had infringed on its airspace when it launched an attack against western Ukraine. French politics is also a major topic. The deeply unpopular President Emmanuel Macron has named Sebastien lecornu, a 39-year old loyalist, as his fifth Prime Minister in less than two-years, raising the question of just how long either of them can hold on to power. The outcome of ECB’s two-day summit that begins today is now more certain. Economists are almost unanimous in their expectation for rates to remain unchanged. The ECB's two-day meeting that begins today is more certain, with economists almost unanimously expecting rates to remain steady. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. US PPI (August). -Sweden monthly GDP (July) -Norway, Denmark CPI (both August) Italy, Spain, Greece Industrial Output (all July).
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US inflation data and gold rates are in focus
Investors were watching for key inflation reports this week, as well as expectations of an interest rate reduction in the United States this month. As of 0101 GMT spot gold was up 0.3%, at $3,635.329 an ounce. It had hit a record-high of $3,673.95 per ounce on Tuesday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery eased by 0.2% to $3673.70. "Sentiment has been very bullish." Gold prices are being driven by several factors. "The primary factor is U.S. interest rate expectations," Capital.com's financial market analyst Kyle Rodda stated. The near-term outlook is heavily dependent on these inflation data. If the data is a little spicy, rate cuts may be triggered marginally. This could spark a correction in a market that's technically overbought. Watch closely the U.S. producer prices inflation data due at 1230 GMT and the consumer price reading on Thursday for further clues about the Federal Reserve's rate path. The U.S. government reported on Tuesday that the economy probably created 911,000 less jobs than originally estimated in the 12-month period through March. This suggests that the job growth had already slowed before President Donald Trump imposed aggressive import tariffs. The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data released last week indicated a weakening of labor market conditions and sealed the case to cut rates at the Fed’s September Policy Meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points, with a probability of a 50-basis point cut at 6%. Gold prices are up 38% this year after a 27% increase in 2024. This is due to a soft dollar, central bank accumulations, dovish monetary policies and increased global uncertainty. Gold that does not yield is usually a good investment in an environment with low interest rates. Silver spot rose by 0.3%, to $41 an ounce. Palladium remained flat at $1148.57 while platinum gained 0.9%. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jac-Phillips in Bengaluru, Eileen Soreng and Brijesh Patel from Bengaluru)
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Asia stocks rise, bonds fall when traders look at odds of a bigger Fed cut
Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher Wednesday, while bonds fell. Traders increased their bets on the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut rates next week by at least one quarter point due to a softening of U.S. labor market conditions. The dollar is also rising, as the U.S. Inflation figures will be released on two days, beginning later Wednesday. These data are crucial for the Fed to make its September 17th decision. After Israel's attack against Hamas leaders in Qatar, crude oil prices remained high. Geopolitical concerns remained at the forefront of investors' thoughts after Poland and NATO scrambled their air defences in order to shoot down drones as a result of a Russian air strike on western Ukraine. The markets also took in stride the court ruling which temporarily prevented President Donald Trump from removing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. This case is likely to be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court. Investors are closely following the unprecedented court battle, as it could undermine the long-held independence of the central bank. However, there has been no immediate reaction on the market. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.3%, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.3%, and Taiwan’s equity benchmark reached a new record high of 1.46%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 0.5% while mainland Chinese blue-chips rose by 0.2%. Overnight, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, as well as Dow Jones Industrial Average, each finished the day with new all-time records. S&P futures were 0.2% higher Wednesday. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that traders see a Fed rate cut next Wednesday as an almost certain thing. They even place 7% odds on such a large half-point drop, according to the tool. Investors were convinced that the Fed could not wait to support the economy any longer after a dismal payroll number was released last week. The final obstacles to this view will be the readings of consumer and producer inflation on Wednesday and/or Thursday. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that an upside inflation surprise would cause the probability of rate cuts to be reduced, not just for September but also for future months. According to current risk appetite, the rapid deterioration of U.S. data on the economy, especially jobs, is the reason that markets are pricing such aggressive easing by the Fed. Treasury bonds, a safe-haven investment that has been around for centuries, fell for a second consecutive day on Wednesday. This pushed yields up. After a nearly 3-basis-point increase on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield increased by almost 2 basis points. The equivalent yield on Japanese government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points, to 1.575%. In the last session, the U.S. Dollar held onto gains made on Tuesday. The dollar index (which measures the currency against its six main rivals) was unchanged at 97.78 after beginning Wednesday with a slight increase. The dollar was unchanged at $1.1705 to the euro, and down by 0.06% on 147.33 yen. This Thursday, the European Central Bank will set its policy and it is expected that rates will remain unchanged. A month ago economists were divided on whether the ECB would continue to reduce rates. However, recent data shows that inflation is close to the 2% goal and unemployment has reached a new low. On Friday of next week, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decisions. It is widely expected that they will not raise rates this time. Bloomberg and the BOJ issued contradictory reports Tuesday regarding tone. Bloomberg reported that policymakers were looking at a hike in this year, while Bloomberg said they may delay tightening policy. Investors are also watching politics. They're focusing on Shigeru-Ishiba's successor as Japan's new prime minister and the ability of France's fifth newly appointed prime minister in just two years to stay on. The price of gold edged up by 0.2%, to $3,633 an ounce. This comes after the previous day's record jump to $3,673.95. Brent crude futures increased 0.5%, reaching $66.74 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures climbed 0.6% to $62.99 per barrel. Prices settled at 0.6% higher in the previous session, after Israel claimed it had attacked Hamas leaders in Doha. Qatar's Prime Minister said that this attack threatened to derail talks between Hamas & Israel.
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Five-Well Drilling Campaign on BP’s Agenda for Mediterranean Sea
BP has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Egyptian government to evaluate opportunities for a five-well drilling program in the Mediterranean Sea.The program, at water depth ranging from 300 to 1,500 meters, is designed to accelerate the development and production of national gas reserves, with the intent of extending the use of existing production facilities in the West Nile Delta.Drilling operations are expected to start in 2026, with possible tie-back options following evaluation of the drilling campaign and resource potential.The agreement comes as BP plans to increase production to 2.3-2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2030 with the capacity to increase production out to 2035. It follows a successful exploration campaign in the first half of 2025 in which bp has made 10 discoveries including two in Egypt, where it completed drilling activity at the Fayoum-5 gas discovery well and El King-2 exploration well, both part of the West Nile Delta development.“Today’s announcement reaffirms our commitment to supporting investment in Egypt’s gas sector. We appreciate the continued engagement and support from H.E. Minister Karim Badawi. “We look forward to applying BP’s technological expertise to build on our recent exploration and development momentum to bring on new gas resources and accelerated production for the country as well as deliver value for our business,” said William Lin, executive vice president for gas and low carbon energy.“We are proud of our longstanding partnership with the Egyptian government. This memorandum represents a strategic step in our investments in Egypt’s energy sector during this decade, enabling us to develop additional gas resources in the West Nile Delta and bring them onstream as quickly as possible to meet the needs of the local market,” added Nader Zaki, regional president for the Middle East and North Africa.
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Asia stocks rise, bonds fall when traders assess the odds of a bigger Fed cut
Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher Wednesday, while bonds fell. Traders increased their bets on the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut rates next week by at least one quarter point due to a softening of U.S. labor market conditions. The dollar is also rising, as the U.S. Inflation figures will be released on two days, beginning later Wednesday. These are the last data that will inform the Fed’s decision of September 17. Crude oil prices remained high after Israel's attacks on Hamas leaders in Qatar. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.3%. South Korea's KOSPI increased by 1.3%. Taiwan's equity benchmark also increased by 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 0.5% while mainland Chinese blue-chips rose by 0.2%. Overnight, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, as well as Dow Jones Industrial Average, each finished the day with new all-time records. S&P futures were 0.2% higher Wednesday. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that traders see a Fed rate cut next Wednesday as an almost certain thing. They even place 7% odds on such a large half-point drop, according to the tool. Investors were convinced that the Fed could not wait to support the economy any longer after a dismal payroll number was released last week. The final obstacles to this view will be the readings of consumer and producer inflation on Wednesday and/or Thursday. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that an upside inflation surprise would cause the probability of a rate cut to be reduced, not just for September but also for future months. According to current risk appetite, the rapid deterioration of U.S. data on the economy, especially jobs, is the reason that markets are pricing such aggressive easing by the Fed. Treasury bonds, a safe-haven investment that has been around for centuries, fell for a second consecutive day on Wednesday. This pushed yields up. After a nearly 3-basis-point increase on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield increased by almost 2 basis points. The equivalent yield on Japanese government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points, to 1.575%. In the last session, the U.S. Dollar held onto gains made on Tuesday. The dollar index (which measures the currency versus six rivals) was flat at 97.78 after beginning Wednesday with a slight increase. The dollar was unchanged at $1.1705 to the euro, and 0.06% lower at 147.33yen. This Thursday, the European Central Bank will set its policy and it is expected that rates will remain unchanged. One month ago, economists were divided on whether the ECB would continue to reduce rates. However, recent data shows that inflation is holding near the 2% target, and unemployment has reached a new low. On Friday of next week, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decisions. It is widely expected that they will not raise rates this time. Bloomberg and the BOJ issued contradictory reports Tuesday regarding tone. Bloomberg reported that policymakers were looking at a hike in this year, while Bloomberg said they may delay tightening policy. Investors are also watching politics. They're focusing on Shigeru-Ishiba's successor as Japan's new prime minister and the ability of France's fifth newly appointed prime minister in just two years to stay on. The price of gold edged up by 0.2%, to $3,633 an ounce. This comes after the previous day's record jump to $3,673.95. Brent crude futures increased 0.5%, reaching $66.74 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures increased 0.6% to $62.99 per barrel. Prices settled at 0.6% higher in the previous session, after Israel claimed it had attacked Hamas leaders in Doha. Qatar's Prime Minister said that this attack threatened to derail talks between Hamas & Israel.
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China's inflation figures are weak and iron ore prices have fallen due to profit-taking
The iron ore futures fell on Wednesday due to profit-taking, and lower-than-expected data for inflation in China, the top consumer. However, bets that demand would pick up, along with a resumption of production among mills, helped limit losses. As of 0320 GMT, the most-traded contract for January iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped 0.06% down to 802.5 Yuan ($112.61) per metric ton. As of 0310 GMT, the benchmark October iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.56% to $106.75 per ton. Steven Yu, senior analyst at Mysteel, explained that traders have been liquidating some long positions in order to cash in on profits. This has led to a softerening of prices. It's not easy to predict the direction of the market and prices were largely driven by expectations. Therefore, it is normal to see a downward correction after a price rally. China's consumer price index in August was down 0.4% compared to a year ago, which missed the poll prediction of a dip of 0.2%, and weighed on sentiment. The Brazilian miner Vale announced on Tuesday that the fire at its maritime terminal Ponta da Madeira, which had damaged an auxiliary tower, was put out. The fire had no impact on the miner's schedule for iron ore shipment nor the volume of steelmaking material that it expected to ship. Ore demand is expected to increase after Chinese steelmakers resume production following the military parade in Beijing. This will limit price losses. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 2.11% and 1.111% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.67%, while hot-rolled coil fell 0.39%. Wire rod also lost 0.15%, and stainless steel remained flat. ($1 = 7.1261 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Reports of CATL restarting a China mine have dragged lithium miners around the world
Shares in lithium mining companies around the globe fell after a report by China's state-run media said that Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, is likely to resume production soon at a mine of lithium in Yichun in Jiangxi Province in south China. The prices of futures for lithium carbonate in China dropped more than 7% to a more than month-low on Wednesday. The potential reopening of the massive mine adds a fresh blow for the sector, which has been struggling with a glut following weaker-than-anticipated growth in demand for electric vehicles. Securities Times' report about the restart of production at CATL’s lithium mine was released during premarket trade in the U.S. Tuesday. This sent U.S. listed shares of lithium mining companies lower due to easing supply worries. On Tuesday, shares of Albemarle Corp., the world's biggest producer of lithium-ion batteries, and U.S. listed Sigma Lithium Corp. ended lower by 11.5% and 6.9%, respectively. In Sydney, Pilbara Minerals lost as much 16.7% - the highest among Australia's listed lithium miners - while IGO and Liontown Resources both shed as much 12.7% and 15%, respectively. As of 0126 GMT, the lithium miners also weighed heavily on the S&P/ASX 200 index benchmark, which was mostly flat. Shares of Tianqi and Ganfeng, both listed in China, opened at a loss of about 5%. CATL suspended operations at Jianxiawo Lithium Mine following the expiration of a license on August 9. This led to an increase in the prices of lithium futures and lithium mining companies' shares. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich and Rashmi Nandy in Bengaluru)
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Elliott reports that it has taken a stake in Japan's Kansai electric
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that activist investor Elliott Management is now one of the three largest shareholders in Kansai Electric Power, with a stake between 4% and 5 %, according to people familiar with the situation. Kansai's shares rose 6% after the report. According to the report, Elliott has urged Kansai, a major nuclear operator, to increase dividends, and buy back shares, by selling non-core assets worth 150 billion yen per year. The FT reported that Elliott had identified non-core assets worth over 2 trillion yen. These include a stake in a building firm and property worth more than 1 billion yen. Kansai Electronic declined to comment about individual shareholders, but stated "we remain committed" to maintaining careful communications with our shareholders. Elliott did not respond immediately to a comment request. The Tokyo Stock Exchange and regulators are putting pressure on Japanese companies to increase shareholder value and returns, which is driving interest from foreign investors in the market. Elliott has expanded its investment activities in Japan, targeting companies such as Tokyo Gas and Dai Nippon Printing. Kansai Electric, Japan's largest nuclear power company by the number of reactors it operates, is planning to build a reactor in Fukui Prefecture in western Japan. ($1 = 147.4700 Japanese yen) Reporting by Rishabh Jaisewal in Bengaluru, Anton Bridge and Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo and editing by Himani Sarkar
Smelter charges collapse as zinc mine supply falters: Andy Home
Standard zinc smelter treatment charges have fallen sharply this year, vouching for a. tightening up of the mine supply chain.
Canadian miner Teck Resources has consented to pay. Korea Zinc $165 per metric heap to transform its zinc. concentrate into refined metal, down from the $274 covering last. year's shipments.
The yearly terms worked out by the 2 business have in. recent years been the benchmark for the remainder of the market.
Treatment charges increase during times of basic material surplus. and slide during periods of shortfall.
Last year's numbers were high since of a smelter. bottleneck and resulting glut of mined concentrate in 2022. This. year's low result states much about how zinc's supply dynamics. have actually altered in the intervening 12 months.
A string of mine closures, a lot of them due to the weak. rate environment, has actually tightened concentrate accessibility with. considerable implications for the fine-tuned metal market.
FALLING MINE PRODUCTION
London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc went from boom to bust over. the course of 2022 and early 2023, the three-month cost. collapsing from an all-time high of $4,896 per ton in March 2022. to a three-year low of $2,215 in May 2023.
The cost implosion caused a number of higher-cost mines to. close, most notably Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland,. Nyrstar's Middle Tennessee operations and Toho Zinc's. Rasp mine in Australia.
The lengthening tally of casualties caused worldwide mined. output of zinc to contract by 1.4% year-on-year in 2023,. according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. ( ILZSG). It was the second consecutive year of decrease after a. 2.6% drop in 2022.
This year might not end up much better.
A November fire at the Ozernoy mine in Russia has actually postponed. commissioning of what was expected to among the greatest. additions to global production this year.
Ozernoy, efficient in producing 350,000 lots of consisted of zinc. every year, now seems not likely to reboot processing ore into. focuses up until the fourth quarter of this year.
When ILZSG last met in October for its biannual conference, the. Group anticipated a robust 3.9% year-on-year increase in mined. output this year. That's starting to look positive and may be. based on modification when the Group holds its spring 2024. meeting.
SMELTER RECOVERY
While mine supply has actually continued sliding, worldwide smelter. production has bounced back highly because 2022.
The main chauffeur of higher smelter output has actually been China,. where manufacturers cranked up refined metal production to 6.6. million tons in 2023, a year-on-year boost of 10.9%,. according to regional information service provider Shanghai Metal Market.
That collective efficiency helped global output recover by. 3.8% last year after a similar-sized dip in 2022.
True, there are still Western smelters having problem with high. energy rates, such as Nyrstar's Budel plant in the Netherlands. which closed in January.
However on the other hand, the Nordenham smelter in Germany has actually been. ramping up after a year of being on care and upkeep.
It's the space in between weak global mine performance and. resurgent smelter need for concentrates that explains the. sharp drop in the annual criteria treatment charge.
Area terms have fallen even more as smelters rush for. product. Price reporting company Fastmarkets evaluates those for. concentrate delivered to Chinese ports at $50-80 per heap.
METAL GLUT
The establishing tightness in the zinc basic materials part of. the production chain isn't yet having any noticeable effect on. the refined metal balance.
Zinc remains the laggard of the LME pack even as enhancing. macroeconomic belief raises the base metals complex. Presently. trading around $2,700 per heap, LME three-month metal is up by. simply 3.0% on the start of the year, compared with copper's 10%. gains.
The metal's usage in the kind of galvanised steel indicates it. is heavily exposed to the building sector, a particularly. weak part of the economy in both China and the rest of the. world.
With smelting activity increasing over the last 12 months, there. is no scarcity of refined zinc.
LME stocks recuperated from a depleted 27,750 loads to 223,225. heaps over the course of 2023. They have risen by another 37,000. heaps up until now this year thanks to sporadic bursts of warranting. activity.
LME time-spreads suggest there might be more surplus metal. hovering over the market.
The benchmark cash-to-three-months period << CMZN0-3 > has. moved into super-contango area, broadening to over $50 per. ton last month. The contango contracted to $38 at the Monday. close however is still broader than anything seen since 2012-2013.
TWIST IN THE ZINC PLOT
The analyst consensus entering this year was that zinc. was on course to sign up a second year of substantial supply. surplus.
ILZSG forecast a huge 367,000-ton international glut when it fulfilled. in October. The typical expectation in the January poll. of base metal experts was for a 300,000-ton surplus. Not one of. the 11 experts using a supply-demand balance projection. anticipated anything other than excessive metal.
Such is the tightening up in the zinc concentrates section of. the market, however, that expectations are being changed.
Analysts at Macquarie Bank, for instance, are now forecasting. a small 61,000-ton supply deficit throughout the years.
Provided the very tight focuses market, we have minimized. our global refined production projection to -0.4% this year, the. bank stated in its March quarterly Commodities Compendium.
Western production is expected to remain challenged and. Chinese production growth is most likely to brake sharply to just. 0.5% due to a lack of feed.
A number of Chinese smelters have already advanced. maintenance or cut run-rates in reaction to the margin. compression triggered by low treatment charges, which account for. around 40% of a common smelter's earnings, according to. Macquarie.
The bank anticipates a go back to surplus next year but it could. be a rough rate trip given that this year's zinc narrative has. already taken an extremely unanticipated turn.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .
(source: Reuters)