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Who will police the bond vigilantes in MORNING BID EUROPE?
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Bond yields are hitting new milestones, as the U.S. resumes its fight with?Iran. Oil prices have also surged. Brent crude is now above $95 a barrel and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the U.S. has reached a three-year peak. After?the?U.S. The United States and Iran renewed their attacks on each another on Tuesday. The Pentagon said it had completed a series of strikes on targets in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while Tehran claimed it had struck U.S. assets located in Jordan and Iraq. This was the first serious firefight since July. The return of the Middle East conflict has pushed the yield of the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond to its highest intraday level in nearly three years. Meanwhile, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield continued a rise that had already taken it to levels last seen in the past three decades. Bond investors are faced with yet another problem on top of their already growing fiscal concerns. Bond vigilantes are demanding higher compensations to fund governments with large deficits. A renewed oil shock will only add fuel to the fire of inflation, and undermine the appeal fixed income assets. Another wrinkle is also present. The rising yields in Japan may keep more Japanese dollars at home. This would reduce a strong source of overseas demand for bonds that has helped to anchor global markets. Bank of Japan officials made comments ahead of the September 17-18 meeting. Governor Kazuo ueda pledged to keep raising interest rates. Hajime Takata - another board member with hawkish views - also called for an accelerated?pace for interest rate increases. Other central banks also took action to reduce?cost of living pressures on Wednesday. The 'New Zealand dollar' fell 1% to $0.58375 following a 25-basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which was accompanied by a more dovish announcement. The financial climate is tightening, and stocks are suffering. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1.7% while South Korea's KOSPI dropped more than 3.5%. The Nikkei was down by?2.7%, while S&P500 e-minis futures were?0.1% higher. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures?down 0.4%. German DAX Futures were down 0.5% and FTSE Futures were down 0.5%. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Earnings of the company CD Projekt Red, Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Economic Events France Budget Balance for July
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The chances of finding survivors are fading a week following the devastating Nepal flood
Authorities said that the chances of finding survivors among the thousands who are still missing in Nepal have dwindled. This is a week after flash floods in the Himalayas caused the destruction in the mountainous nation. Nearly 4,000 people are still unaccounted for. Officials fear that many of them may be buried beneath the debris from the floods which ravaged towns and valleys close to the Chinese border. China's official death toll in Tibet has remained at 16 since Sunday, with 546 still missing. Phanindra paudel, a senior government official from the National Emergency Operation Center(NEOC), stated that "the hope of finding survivors has decreased." "We pray, and are hopeful." "Hope is the only way to go!" Army spokesperson Raja Ram Basnet stated that rescuers were searching for survivors who may be hidden in the tunnels and powerhouses of hydroelectric plants. These powerhouses contain spaces?and rooms where people can stay. Authorities reported that 279 people were rescued from the wreckage of hydropower plants, but 639 others are still missing. Some of them may be trapped in underground tunnels. FOCUS SHIFTING TO REHABILITATION Binoj Basnet said that the chances of human survival are decreasing as the days pass. He was a senior?army officer who led the search and rescue operation after the 2015 earthquake, which killed about 9,000 people. Balendra Shah, the Prime Minister of India, said that search and rescue operations would be replaced by rehabilitation and reconstruction. Shah, in a post late on Tuesday night on social media, said that the government was now focusing its efforts on rehabilitation and protecting the lives of the people in the affected area. It also provided medical treatment and counselling. According to an initial estimate by the United Nations Development Programme, there were at least 2.2 millions tons of debris. This included parts of buildings, stones, and sediment. It is the equivalent of 6 Empire State Buildings. The amount of debris is a testament to the extent of destruction, and the challenges that communities will face in clearing?homes and roads and public space and beginning to rebuild," the report said. PUBLIC SHEALTH RISK U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric stated that aid agencies were "very concerned" with the?growing risk to public health from overcrowded housing, contaminated drinking water, and damaged health facilities. This is especially true for women and young children during monsoon seasons. Dujarric said that nearly 3,500 people?live in 27 displacement sites throughout the hardest-hit districts Nuwakot & Rasuwa. Shah said that his government has intensified surveillance and response to prevent any outbreaks of diseases in the flood-affected regions. CLIMATE CATALYST A senior U.N. official said that the Himalayan region is at risk of severe glacial flooding in the future. This sentiment was echoed by Shah's post. Shah stated that the international community must answer questions about the collapse of the ice, rock and water and how this large volume was created. China has also linked the floods to climate change.
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Strong dollar weighing on industrial metals as copper and zinc drop
Copper and zinc prices fell on Wednesday as the industrial metals complex was weighed down by a'strong dollar' and concerns that interest rates would remain?higher? for longer. Benchmark 'three-month copper' on the London Metal Exchange fell?0.99%?to $14,133.5 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 1.65%, to 107 710 yuan (16 022.55) per ton. Dollar held steady after overnight gains as renewed hostilities erupted in the Middle East, pushing oil prices up and reviving inflation fears. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive commodities are for buyers who use other currencies. The data showing that U.S. manufacturing activity declined in August due to high input prices also affected demand expectations. Concerns about tightening supply have supported copper and zinc prices in recent months. Both metals recorded their best month ever since January, in 'August. Copper stocks available in warehouses registered with the LME Zinc prices rose on Tuesday as zinc warrants were cancelled, indicating that material marked for withdrawal from LME storage was withdrawn. The highest level in over a year was 30,875 tonnes. LME zinc dropped 1.43%, while SHFE Zinc fell 1.8% on Wednesday. The LME zinc cash-to-3-month spread remained in "backwardation" on Tuesday, indicating tight supply. However, at $139.35 per ton, the spread has shrunk significantly since last Thursday when it was $231.75. Base metals were also affected by rising expectations of rate hikes. The rate traders have priced in a 68% probability that the U.S. According to the CME's Fedwatch, there is a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at its September meeting. This is up from 40% just a week ago. Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks last Friday have also heightened expectations for rate hikes. The impact of higher interest rates on metal demand can be felt by economic activity. Nickel dipped by 0.27%, and tin fell by 0.81%. Aluminium, nickel, and lead all dropped in price. Tin fell by 2.39%.
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Sources say that Valero Port Arthur refinery is affected by a power outage after the storm Edouard.
People familiar with the plant's operations reported that Valero Energy Corporation's Port Arthur refinery, which produces 385,000 barrels per day (bpd), suffered a partial blackout on Tuesday night due to Tropical Storm Edouard. Sources said that the refinery's smaller AVU 147 crude distillation units were shut down due to the power outage at the south end of the plant. The larger AVU 146 CDUs were operating on minimum crude processing levels. CDUs start the fuel production process by breaking crude oil down into feedstocks that are used in the units which make gasoline, diesel, lubricating oil, and feedstocks to make plastics. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Valero’s Port Arthur refinery? accounts for 2% of the nation’s refining capability. This is the equivalent of most of the U.S. refinery capacity that is not being used by refineries operating at 97.4% or the 18.03 million bpd national capacity. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the Trump administration would work with 'U.S. Refiners are increasing production in order to lower gasoline prices. The average price of gasoline is $4 per gallon. Three other refineries continued to operate normally in East Texas as Edouard moved from Port Arthur across Beaumont and Port Arthur. The Port Arthur refinery, which produces 656,400 barrels per day (bpd), continued to operate normally during the tropical storm. The refinery is owned by Saudi Aramco's subsidiary Motiva Enterprises and is the largest refinery in the United States. While Edouard was ashore, Exxon's biggest refinery, the 612,000-bpd Beaumont refinery, continued to operate. TotalEnergies’ 238,000 bpd Port Arthur refining facility also continued to operate. Exxon-Mobil and TotalEnergies sent their contractors home on Tuesday, but left employees at work.
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Asian markets fall as US-Iran conflict lifts oil and bonds yields
The stock market in Asia slumped on Wednesday, as the global selloff triggered by the bond markets spilled into?the region after renewed U.S. attacks on Iran drove oil prices higher. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1.5%, as South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 3% and the Nikkei was down 2.6%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%. Brent crude futures continued to rise as trading resumed on the Asian continent, rising by 1.3% to $95.91 per barrel. This was after U.S. airstrikes against Iran, which had pushed prices up to a 5-week high, on Tuesday. Westpac analysts noted that "the threat of further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz" has prompted renewed concern over inflation. This has led to a drop in stock prices on most major markets and a crash in bond markets around the world. The yield on U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds hit its highest intraday level of 4.8122% - its highest in almost three years - while the yield on 5-year Japanese Government Bonds rose to its highest ever level of 2.295%. DBS analysts noted that "September started on a'shaky note, as government bonds from developed markets continued to fall." They added, "Prepare for a volatile next month as high yields cause anxiety across asset classes." If the bond crisis is not stopped, policymakers will probably need to take more aggressive measures in order to limit yields. The kiwi was down 0.6% to $0.5855, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 25 basis point?to 2.5%. Markets had expected this, but the dovish tone of the central bank's announcement weighed on it. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, was up 0.1% to 99.79. This is its highest level since August 17. The S&P 500 fell overnight by?0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1%. This was due to a rise in government bond yields that weighed heavily on the equities. Data from the Institute for Supply Management, released on Tuesday, showed that?U.S. Manufacturing activity in August moderated amid a decline in new orders but remained in an expansionary territory. The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in the next two weeks at its meeting, but a rise is not guaranteed. Fed funds futures are pricing an implied probability of 67% that benchmark borrowing costs will increase by 25 basis points at the U.S. Central Bank's two-day conference ending on September 16. This is compared to 39.6% a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Gold fell 0.8% to $4,295.70 per ounce. Bitcoin dropped 0.6% to $76,979.55 while ether dropped 0.9% at $2,397.78.
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BHP's Chief Commercial Officer to Step Down in January, Internal Memo shows
BHP's commercial officer Rag Udd will step down by the end of January in order to pursue a career outside the company. This was revealed in a memo sent out on Tuesday. The miner is now left with a difficult role -- negotiating iron-ore deals with China. Some analysts and investors had considered Udd as a candidate for the "top job" at BHP. Brandon Craig, who started in July, was given the position. According to the memo, Udd will have been working at BHP in Singapore for 30 years by the time he leaves. Udd?was responsible for BHP's negotiation with China -Mineral Resources Group. (CMRG), at a time when the state buyer increased pressure on BHP, and other iron ore miner to get better terms from its steel makers in annual pricing negotiations. This pressure led to a number bans on steel mills buying their products in the last quarter of last year, until an agreement was reached in April. Iron ore producers expect these negotiations to become more difficult, and choosing 'the best' leader to manage this key relationship will be a priority for Craig. Udd previously led BHP's Americas Division from 2020 to 2024. He was responsible for the development of Jansen Potash Project in Canada, which is expected to start production by mid-next year. He also oversaw major investment?across BHP Chilean copper operations, including the Spence extension and Escondida - the world's biggest copper mine.
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US energy chief: Venezuelan oil production to double within a few years
Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, said that after arriving in Venezuela on Tuesday that the 'deals' that oil companies from the U.S. The oil companies from the United States and other countries will sign deals in Caracas tomorrow that will result in a more-than-doubling of crude oil production over the next few decades. Wright is on a one day trip to Venezuela, the founding OPEC member. This is his second visit since U.S. troops seized Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro as leader in January. Venezuelan oil production peaked at over 3?million barrels a day in the late 1990s, but then?plummeted due to a lack investment, poor management and U.S. sanction. It has risen slightly since Maduro's capture, but it is still around 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day. Wright stated that U.S. gas prices will fall in the upcoming weeks as a result of steps taken by the Trump administration to relax regulations on refiners. Wright told reporters that the biggest problem with gasoline and diesel prices right now is the refining capacity.
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US military claims it has completed the latest wave of attacks on Iran
The?U.S. The?U.S. military announced late on Tuesday that it had completed its latest round of'strikes against Iran. It said it had'struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp?targets, as the Iran War escalated after a weekend firefight. U.S. Central Command reported that U.S. forces had struck IRGC target "including air defence sites, radar systems and maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites", the U.S. Central Command stated on X. Axios reported, citing U.S. government officials, that the U.S. army?attacked 2 Iranian government tanks in Tuesday's attacks. Iran responded on Tuesday to a barrage of 'U.S. The exchange of strikes marked the most significant escalation since weeks in the conflict that has "driven up global oil prices". The strikes came after a weekend firefight, the first one since late July. And attacks on Monday against two tankers that were leaving the Strait of Hormuz - the waterway for global oil supply which Iran had 'effectively closed off to shipping. Tehran has retaliated against U.S. assets located in Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq. The Iranian Red Crescent reports that five people were killed at a wedding in Sirik, an area along the Strait of Hormuz. 50 others were injured. Mehr reported that a four-year-old was killed. IRNA, citing an official from the province, said there were 68 wounded. Iran responded to the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran by striking Israel and Gulf states that host U.S. bases. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Israeli attacks in Lebanon have caused thousands of deaths and millions of refugees. U.S. Energy secretary Chris Wright reported that 17 million barrels a day of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the largest amount since the war reduced the flow. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump stated that he was "not trying" to force Iran at the bargaining table. When will the Iranian people rise up and fight? Trump posted a message on Twitter.
Oil prices continue to rise as US and Iran trade new strikes
Early trade on Wednesday saw oil prices rise, continuing the previous session’s?surge. Concerns over supply disruption intensified following the U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes overnight, dimming hopes for an easing in tensions in Middle East.
Brent crude futures increased 75 cents or 0.8% to $95.40 per barrel at 0345 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures rose 44 cents or 0.5% to $90.66.
Brent and WTI both gained more than $4 on Monday, the largest gains since July 24.
The U.S. announced that it launched a "series" of airstrikes overnight against Iranian targets, prompting a reaction from Tehran in the most significant escalation in conflict between the two countries for weeks.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that the U.S. attack would further restrict the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial?waterway which carried approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption before the conflict, and has been effectively closed by Iran to commercial shipping.
In a note to clients, ING analysts said that recent developments have brought the risks?to the regional oil supply back into focus. We've seen oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz despite a stalemate stalemate s between the US and Iran. But rising?tensions put crossings clearly at risk.
In response to American strikes, the Iranian state-run media reported a massive drone attack against a U.S. based in Bahrain.
Jordanian military officials claimed that their air defences had intercepted ten of the 13 missiles which?entered Jordanian airspace. Two U.S. officials confirmed there were no American casualties reported to date. Kuwait also said that its armed forces responded to hostile drone activity.
The latest exchange followed the weekend's first flare-up of hostilities since July. It also came after the attacks on two tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz, which caused further disruptions in oil supplies, forcing traders to look for alternative crude shipments.
The oil market no longer just prices the risk of war, but is now pricing the costs of a war that is not resolved. This is according to Priyanka?Nova, Phillip 'Nova's director of market insight.
"Until there are clear signs that the negotiations can lead to a lasting solution and that normal oil flow through the Strait is returning, it is likely that crude risk premiums will remain high."
Market sources cited data from the American Petroleum Institute to say that crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 2.6 millions barrels during the week ending August 28. Distillate stocks (which include heating oil and diesel) also declined by 265,000.
(source: Reuters)