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Stock constructs, Red Sea issues pressure Asia diesel margins: Russell

The revenue margin for making diesel in Asia is coming under sustained pressure from an excess of products as significant exporters boost shipments and less freights head to Europe since of concerns over shipping through the Red Sea.

The fracture spread, or earnings margin, of making a barrel of gasoil, the building block for middle distillate fuels such as diesel and jet kerosene, at a normal Singapore refinery ended at $20.33 a barrel on March 15.

This was below the previous close of $20.87 a barrel and simply above the eight-month low of $19.89, reached on March 13.

The margin is down 28% from the high so far in 2024 of $ 28.26 a barrel, hit on Feb. 13.

The weak point comes as a number of indicators are flashing cautioning signs for diesel in Asia.

Stockpiles of middle extracts in Singapore, the local trading hub for refined fuels, rose 8% last week to reach the greatest because September 2021 as net exports of diesel dropped by 98%, and those of jet fuel by 26%, according to official information launched on March 14.

Total middle distillate inventories in Singapore were 10.97 million barrels last week, up from 9.99 million the prior week, with stockpiles being enhanced by an increase in arrivals from South Korea and China.

Regardless of the weakening crack spread for gasoil, refineries in Asia still have some reward to export cargoes as a profit margin of around $20 a barrel is still above the 2023 lows of about $11.

The possibility of the fracture spread dropping to match in 2015's lows are increasing, particularly as more diesel heads into Asia and less towards destinations west of the Suez Canal.

The attacks on shipping using the Red Sea to transit the Suez Canal by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group have actually led some shippers to divert cargoes to walk around the Cape of Excellent Hope, a. longer and more expensive voyage.

This has cut the volumes of refined fuels heading to Europe. from Asia, a circumstance compounded by decreasing European demand. as the northern winter season ends.

WINDOW SHUT

LSEG Oil Research said in its newest report on Asia's. extract market that the East-West arbitrage window is strongly. shut with flows at three-year lows.

Just 140,000 metric lots of middle distillates went from. East Asia to the West in February, and so far for March simply. 75,000 tons have actually been assessed, LSEG said.

India is also usually a major shipper of diesel to Europe,. however shipments in the first quarter are most likely to typical 535,000. lots a month, which LSEG stated will be the most affordable first-quarter. average since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic initially hit.

India is rather sending out more cargoes to Asia, with circulations to. the area exceeding 700,000 heaps for both January and February,. the most since August.

Add in rising exports from China and the result is higher. stocks in the Singapore hub.

Exports from Singapore to major regional importers such as. Indonesia and Australia are also weakening, putting further. downward pressure on margins.

Overall middle distillate deliveries to Asian purchasers dropped to. 5.07 million tons in February, below 5.94 million in. January, and LSEG vessel-tracking and port information point to a. more decrease in March.

The aspect that may restrict the decrease in the middle. distillate profit margin is the upcoming refining upkeep. season in Asia, which will see a number of systems taken offline,. primarily in the second quarter.

This may limit exports in the area, however concerns stay. over whether adequate supply will be cut to balance out lower. shipments to Europe from Asian refiners.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)