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Russell: Crude oil futures prices are a measure of market adaptability and not a sign of Iran peace.
Since the beginning of the Iran War, there has been a debate about whether crude oil futures accurately reflect the stress in the physical markets of oil and refined products or if traders are blindly optimistic peace is on the horizon. The Iran War between the United States of America and?Iran is continuing on its volatile and unpredictable course, with renewed hope that an 'interim pause' in the strikes could be possible. This small glimmer of optimism was sufficient to drive Brent futures down in the early Asian trading on Monday. Brent futures fell by nearly 5%, to $92.06. The Strait of Hormuz is still at best contested. Shipping volumes have dropped through the narrow waterway after surging in mid-June during a three-week ceasefire between the Trump Administration and Tehran. After the collapse of the deal and the renewed U.S. attacks on Iran, Tehran responded with a series of strikes against U.S. bases and vessels trying cross the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran appears to have also successfully activated the Houthi allies to target Saudi oil tankers that are trying to cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This eliminates a route that Saudi oil could have taken to reach refineries on the Asian continent via the Red Sea port Yanbu. Alternative routes include a much longer and more complex route via the Suez Canal. This involves partial discharging of cargoes, and the use of the SUMED Pipeline due to?draft restriction in the canal. Exports of physical crude from the Middle East are still constrained. Only limited volumes pass through the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz straits. A lasting peace agreement also seems distant? with the United States of America and Iran being far apart in key areas and having a deep mistrust for one another. UKRAINE LESSON This situation seems to call for a much stronger reaction than what has been seen in the oil futures market. Brent?dropped to $70.14 per barrel during the short ceasefire on July 2. It then rallied by 45%, reaching a high price of $102.00 on 23 July before falling back. This may seem like a big rally, but it is still well below the $139.13 peak Brent achieved in the weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. At the time, this event raised concerns about the disruption of Russia's exports, as they were the second largest crude shipper. These fears were not justified, as the crude markets quickly adapted. They rerouted Russian oil towards buyers in China and India, while Europe increased its imports of American oil?and African oil. The Iran conflict differs in that there is a real disruption of crude supply. And the longer the situation persists, the more the buffers created by inventory drawdowns as well as China's reduction of imports are strained. The argument is that crude futures are not high enough to reflect the risk of a prolonged disruption in Middle East crude supply, which appears to be more likely. It's likely that the crude futures market is pricing adaptability, rather than pricing the worst-case scenario or even the best-case scenario of lasting peace. The market has effectively bet that it will handle disruptions through rerouting of flows and increasing alternative sources. The Suez Canal is a more expensive and time-consuming way to transport Saudi Arabian Red Sea crude oil from Yanbu into Asia, but if the market demands it, then this is what will be done. Other smaller workarounds, like Iraq sending fuel oil to Turkey are also emerging. These, when combined, help reduce the loss of crude and products worth around 10 million barrels a day (bpd). It is possible that the market has bet that traders of crude oil and refined products will be able mitigate the worst effects of the Iran Crisis. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Oil skid brings inflation relief to the stock market and bonds
On Monday, Asian share markets rose as a pause between fighting in the Gulf brought oil prices down sharply. This lowered inflation risks and helped bonds. Iran announced on Sunday that it would cease 'its own attacks' as long as the United States followed suit. The U.S. army was reportedly worried about the dwindling supply of ammunition. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have still continued to attack Saudi oil installations on the Red Sea Coast, a threat to another vital waterway for the global oil trade. Sally Auld is the group chief economist for NAB. She said, "Net, it appears that developments in the Middle East moved in a more positive direction this weekend. This lends some credence to the idea that oil prices above $100 per barrel seem to de-escalate behaviour on both sides." Brent crude fell 5.2% to $91.73 per barrel during the lull of fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. Crude dropped 5.4% to $84.00. The Federal Reserve's rate hike probability has been slightly reduced by the recent drop in oil prices. Markets indicate that the central bank will meet on Wednesday, and a rise in interest rates is a 1 in 3 chance. However, most analysts do not believe Chair Kevin Warsh to be supportive of such a move. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that "investors view the July meeting's outcome as unusually uncertain. This is likely due to the fact that the Fed was split in recent months, Warsh remains unclear about his own position, and part of the escalation of tensions with Iran took place during the blackout." "There is likely to be at least one dissenter in favor of a hike this week, but the majority of voters seem unlikely to push for an action after the June inflation data." Bank of England meets on Thursday, while Bank of Japan meets on Friday. Both are expected to remain cautious and hold their ground despite the softer inflation data for June. Earnings from TECH BULLS S&P futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures 1.3% as equities found comfort in the decline in oil prices and yields. EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all rose by 0.6% in Europe. South Korea's index of chips-heavy stocks, the?Chips Index, gained 0.6%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.3%. According to LSEG data, about a third of S&P companies will report earnings this week. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% compared to last year. Even 'blockbuster' results may not satisfy investors today, given the high expectations and the mounting concern over AI capex. A WSJ article reported that Nvidia had been in talks with OpenAI to provide a $250 billion backstop as part of a?data center?project. Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, Qualcomm and Amazon are among the tech giants reporting. Also included in this list are a number of companies from the industrial, defence, and healthcare sectors. The U.S. Q2 GDP is a highlight, with growth expected to pick up to 1.5% on an annualised basis after a slow start to the year. Weekly?jobless claim, Q2 Employment Cost Index, and the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment round out this diary. The Eurozone's schedule will include?flash Q2 growth, consumer confidence and flash inflation, as well as June unemployment. The drop in oil prices helped the 10-year Treasury yields to fall by 4 basis points, to 4.63%. This also pushed the dollar down. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1390 while the dollar fell 0.2% against the yen, to 163.66. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to climb by 1.4%, reaching $4,110 per ounce.
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The Russian-held area also suffered damage.
Local authorities reported that the Russians launched a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv early Sunday morning. Other regions were bombarded later in the day, resulting in at least six deaths. Russia claimed that areas under Moscow's control in Ukraine had also been attacked, with four killed by a Ukrainian drone in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Horlivka. In its morning report, Ukraine's Air Force said that Russia had launched seven missiles and 136 drones against Ukraine overnight. The emergency services of Ukraine reported that a Russian drone struck a?supermarket in the city of Chernihiv located in northern Ukraine, killing two -- including a nine-year-old boy -- and injuring 25 others. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Telegram, wrote: "This is deliberate Russian terror with no military justification." Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, said that a drone attack during daylight killed one person and injured 16 others. Separately Regional Governor Ivan Fedorov stated that a glide-bomb attack in Zaporizhzhia in the south killed one person and injured six others. The city has been under heavy bombardment for several months. After the missile attack overnight, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that a fire had broken out in the apartment building on the 7th and 8th floors. Images released by state emergency services show vehicles on fire. Three people were injured in the capital. Naftogaz, the Ukrainian national oil and natural gas company, said that two of its employees were killed in an attack by Russia while trying to help residents who had been affected by a previous strike. Zelenskiy warned on Friday of the likelihood that Russian attacks would occur in?the next 24 hours. Ivan Prikhodko, a Russian-installed mayor in Horlivka in the Russian-occupied Donetsk Region, said that four civilians were?killed by a Ukrainian drone attack. Prikhodko said that a Ukrainian drone struck?an ambulance, injuring 3 medics and a resident. The Russian-installed officials accused Ukraine on Saturday of attacking civilians deliberately after 12 people died in a drone strike in an area of Ukraine held by the Russians, called 'Zaporizhzhia. Both Russia and Ukraine have denied that civilians were targeted in the war that was launched in February 2022 by Russia's full scale invasion. Most of the victims were Ukrainians. (Reporting and Editing by Peter Graff; Edmund Klamann, Ron Popeski, and Ron Popeski).
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Five Bosnian climbers believed dead on Russia's Mount Elbrus
A Bosnian climbing rescue team said that five Bosnian climbers were believed to have died after being caught in a violent storm on Russia's Mount Elbrus. Russian rescuers are still searching for the bodies. The Emergencies Ministry of Russia said that rescuers saved two more?climbers who were evacuated and taken to medical care. The ministry said that the bodies of two "further" members of the group were located at an altitude 5,350 metres (17,550 feet). They would be removed when the weather permitted. The ministry said that the search for three more bodies was ongoing without specifying the nationality of the victims. Mount Elbrus is famous for its sudden changes in weather conditions and climbing conditions. It rises 5,642 metres (18,510 feet) above the Georgian border. Bosnian media reported that the seven climbers were all residents of Zenica, a town in the central part of Bosnia. They included a married couple as well as a doctor working at the local hospital. Russian media reported that adverse weather conditions, including strong winds, had complicated search and recovery operations. Reporting by Daria Sucic and Anton Kolodyazhnyy, Editing by Helen Popper
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Bordeaux is threatened by wildfires as France and Spain battle the blazes
On Sunday, wildfires spread towards the outer reaches of Bordeaux in the heartland of France's winelands as France and Spain battled fires that forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate. Authorities have ordered the evacuation of 220,000 people from?France?, while more than 75,000 in Spain were evacuated and 30,000 others told to shelter in place. Fires in France have destroyed the Cap Ferret Peninsula on the Atlantic Coast, a popular tourist attraction. They also spread to areas around Bordeaux where firefighters are trying to stop the flames reaching the regional capital. The fire was about 15 kilometres from the city's main entry points, Bordeaux Mayor Thomas Cazenave told X on Sunday. Interior Minister?Laurent Nunez also said that the situation remained a "difficult one". Pedro Sanchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, visited areas affected by fires in Avila. Avila is one of three provinces centrally affected by major blazes, along with Madrid and Toledo. He said: "We have an opportunity to combat the wildfire this weekend and protect lives, population centers, and ultimately bring this serious wildfire as far under control as possible." SPAIN BATTLES MULTIPLE FLAZES Regional authorities in Spain's eastern Castellon Province said that a separate fire had ravaged 4,300 hectares. The regional leader of 'Valencia', Juanfran Perez told reporters that the fire was out of control and difficult to put out from a technical perspective, particularly because of the adverse conditions which will continue throughout the day. The wildfire has spread to the Sierra de Espadan Natural Park, which contains large forests of cork oaks and pine trees. Scientists say climate change has intensified heatwaves and prolonged droughts. The latest disasters are fires. According to Climate Monitor, the average July temperature in Bordeaux and Avila was 32 degrees Celsius, or 90 degrees Fahrenheit. This is almost 6 degrees Celsius above the normal maximum for the month between 1961 and 1990. International Aid Mobilised Portugal and Greece have deployed over 100 soldiers along with equipment as part of the European Union civil protection mechanism. The Spanish interior ministry announced on X that two more planes would arrive "as quickly as possible" from Turkey. Sanchez announced that his government will declare civil protection emergencies for the provinces in the Central Provinces affected by wildfires on Tuesday, unlocking additional funding. He said that more than 150,000 hectares of land have been destroyed in?Spain over the past six months, which is six times the area destroyed last year. Sanchez noted that wildfires are a common feature of Spain’s summers. However, their increasing intensity and scale, fueled by more extreme weather conditions, require policies based on climate science. Since July 15, 500 firefighters in the Scottish highlands have been battling a massive fire within?Cairngorms' National Park. Residents of Nethy Bridge were allowed to return home late Saturday night after being evacuated Friday evening due to a change in weather conditions. Pope Leo offered spiritual support from his summer home of "Castel Gandolfo" outside Rome. He said: "I want to express my closeness and solidarity with the victims and rescue workers who are engaged in relief efforts, in light of the recent devastating wildfires in France and Spain."
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Bordeaux is threatened by wildfires as France and Spain battle the blazes
On Sunday, wildfires raged in the winelands of France, near the historic city of Bordeaux. France and Spain were battling blazes which 'forced' the evacuation of hundreds if thousands of people. Authorities have reported that 220,000 people were evacuated from France and more than 75,000 in Spain. Another 30,000 people were ordered to shelter-in-place. Fires in France have destroyed the Cap Ferret Peninsula on the Atlantic Coast, a popular tourist attraction. They also spread to the areas around Bordeaux where firefighters tried to stop the flames reaching the regional capital. The fire was about 15 kilometres from the city's main entry points, Bordeaux Mayor Thomas Cazenave told X on Sunday. Interior Minister Laurent Nunez also said that the situation remained a "difficult one". Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister, visited areas affected by fires in Avila. Avila is one of three provinces centrally affected by major blazes, along with Madrid and Toledo. More than 45,000 hectares (111, 000 acres) were burned. He said: "We have an opportunity to combat the wildfire this weekend and protect lives, population centers, and, ultimately, bring this serious wildfire as far under control as possible." SPAIN BATTLES MULTIPLE FLAZES Regional authorities reported that a separate fire in Spain's eastern Castellon Province has destroyed over 4,300 acres. The regional leader of Valencia Juanfran Perez told reporters that the fire was "out of control" and would be difficult to put out, due to the weather conditions. The wildfire has spread to the Sierra de Espadan Natural Park, which contains large forests of cork oaks and pine trees. Scientists say that climate change has intensified the heatwaves and droughts caused by prolonged droughts. According to Climate Monitor, the average July temperature in Bordeaux and Avila was 32 degrees Celsius, or 90 degrees Fahrenheit, almost 6 C higher than the normal maximum for the month between 1961 and 1990. International Aid Mobilised Portugal and Greece have deployed over 100 soldiers along with equipment as part of the European Union civil protection mechanism. The Spanish interior ministry announced on X that two more planes would arrive "as quickly as possible" from Turkey. Sanchez announced that his government will declare a "civil protection" emergency on Tuesday for the provinces in the center of the country affected by wildfires. This will unlock additional funding to help with recovery. He said that more than 150,000 hectares of land have been destroyed in?Spain over the past six months, which is six times the area destroyed last year. Sanchez noted that wildfires are a common feature of Spain’s summers. However, their increasing intensity and scale, fueled by more extreme weather conditions, require policies based on climate science. Since July 15, 500 firefighters in the Scottish highlands have been battling a massive fire within the Cairngorms National Park. Residents of Nethy Bridge were allowed to return home late Saturday night after being evacuated Friday evening due to a change in weather conditions. Pope Leo offered spiritual support from his summer home of "Castel Gandolfo" outside Rome. He said: "In light the recent devastating wildfires in France and Spain, I would like to express my closeness and solidarity, and invite everyone to pray both for those who have been affected as well as for the rescue workers involved in relief efforts."
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Bordeaux firefighters battle to contain the flames
On Sunday, firefighters battled?wildfires that threatened the French city of Bordeaux while authorities evacuated an increasing number?of residents from its suburbs. Wildfires have swept through the southwestern French region during a heatwave that has affected many parts of Europe. Spain declared a state of emergency after a wildfire near Valencia killed an elderly man. In a Sunday statement, the local authority responsible for the Bordeaux region said that the fire had made rapid progress over the last few hours. Bordeaux is known for its wine and is one of the major transport hubs for tourists who are visiting the nearby resorts along the Atlantic coast. Wildfires that broke out in southwest France earlier this week have forced authorities to evacuate 220,000 people. The fires reached Cap Ferret - a popular holiday destination for summer holidays in Aquitaine. Farmers from the area also offered to assist firefighters. "We came to give a hand because if this were our area, we would want others to do the same." "We think that our efforts are very welcome, especially given the magnitude of the disaster," said Pascal?Roudier, a 65-year old farmer. Climate Monitor reports that so far this July, temperatures in the Aquitaine region have averaged 32 degrees Celsius (90 Fahrenheit). This is 7.3 degrees Celsius above the normal maximum temperature for July between 1961 and 1990. Reporting by Sudip K. Gupta and Jean-Stephane B. Brosse; editing by Alexander Smith.
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Climate chief at AfDB warns that a'super El Nino' could cause an economic impact of $10-20 billion dollars in Africa.
The African Development Bank's chief climate expert said that an impending "super El Nino" is likely to cause a combined hit of $10 billion to 20 billion dollars on the affected African countries and lead to mass migration out of hard-hit areas. Forecasters warn that El Nino, which is often responsible for severe droughts and flooding in Africa, could become one of the most powerful weather patterns ever if the current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue. Along with the threat to water and food security, the government's finances and banking sector could be affected if disasters cause damage to infrastructure and leave cash-strapped nations struggling to repay loans. Anthony Nyong said that the AfDB director of climate change and green development, Anthony Nyong, stated in an interview, "Just by this event, heavily affected countries will see their GDPs reduced by 1% to 2 percent on average. This is approximately $10 billion to 20 billion dollars across the continent." AfDB's latest forecasts from May indicated that Africa would experience 4.2% growth in economic output this year. This figure will rise to 4.4% by 2027, if the U.S./Israeli war on Iran is eased. This was, however, before predictions of an "super" El Nino or "Godzilla El Nino" were made. Nyong is the first major multilateral bank to estimate the impact of?El Nino' at $10-20 billion. He did not give a breakdown by country of the estimated damage, but warned that it would likely be more than a single event. Mozambique, after experiencing Cyclone Idai, in 2019, showed that it could take many years to recover. The government is also caught in the "climate financing trap", Nyong called it, where they are not able to deal with crises because of a lack of resources and have to take money from infrastructure, health or education budgets. El Nino 2023-2024 caused droughts in Southern Africa, and heavy rains and floods?in East Africa. The conditions caused widespread crop failures and a spike in food prices. They also led to record sea levels along the coasts of Africa. AfDB estimates that Africa's farmers will lose nearly $330 Million in income this year. The fishing industry could also be hard hit due to increasing sea temperatures and storms. Nyong stated that "when these shocks occur, countries take two step back." "We do not want our countries to slip into poverty." SEPTEMBER SEMMINAR In September, the AfDB will intensify its response to El Nino by holding a "seminar", as senior staff evaluates potential impacts on existing and planned investments. Nyong said that it was ready to restructure its projects in order to help countries deal with El Nino’s impacts. It would also work with these countries to access additional multilateral funding, such as the Green Climate Fund – the largest climate fund dedicated to date. He added that other possible sources of assistance could be the Adaptation Funds, Climate Investment Funds, and newer Loss-and-Damage Financing Mechanisms. A report by the United Nations in October estimated that developing countries would need to collectively spend $365 billion a year in order to combat climate change, but international public adaptation financing was only $26 billion as of 2023. Nyong stated that Africa would now require as much as 100 billion dollars this year, given the anticipated strength of El Nino. Nyong, speaking of the next year, said that "the (climate adaption finance) needed was already about $50 billion." "But that's $30 to $50 billion more". MASS MIGRATION Nyong stated that humanitarian pressures will add to the problem, and the bank has identified Sudan, South Sudan Democratic Republic of Congo Somalia Mali Burundi Burundi and Nigeria as countries which could be particularly affected. He said that when El Nino hits, there will be mass migration. The price of maize - a staple food in many countries - is expected to double. "You will not stay where you are, but move," he said. Nyong stated that the resulting shortages of resources and competition over grazing land, water, and other natural resources could 'exacerbate fragility already present in some regions. Nyong estimated that agricultural losses would be around $327million and fisheries productivity will fall by 1%-4%. He added that Africa needs to take more action in order to increase its resilience, before disasters strike. This theme will be at the center of the next round global climate talks to be held in Turkey, in November. He said, "It's cheaper to build fences around precipices than pay for expensive ambulances that wait at the bottom to see if people fall." "Let's build the fence".
Oil drops 5% after US and Iran stop fighting over the weekend
Oil prices fell?5%? on Monday, after U.S. and Iran stopped their strikes at the weekend following two weeks of attacks. This raised hopes of a diplomatic resolution that would deescalate conflict and allow shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to resume.
Brent crude futures dropped $4.89 or 5.05% to $91.89 at 0009 GMT, after briefly slipping below the key support levels of $90 earlier in session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude?was $84.64 per barrel, down by $4.67 or 5.23%.
After rising for three weeks, both contracts are now trading at their lowest level in almost a week.
Brent oil reached $100 a barrel after the conflict that reduced oil shipments through the 'Strait of Hormuz' spilled into the Red Sea and hampered exports to Asia from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter.
Mike Waltz, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (and other U.S. media), told "Fox News Sunday," and other U.S.-based media, that Donald Trump decided to pause U.S. military operations to give more time to diplomacy.
In a recent note, IG Markets analyst Tony?Sycamore stated that "hopes are growing" for a diplomatic solution.
A return to the 14 point MOU (memorandum of Understanding) with more clarity on control of the Strait of Hormuz would be a good starting point.
Shipping data from Kpler revealed that despite the ceasefire in attacks, less than 10 commodity vessels per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ship traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb strait also fell on Sunday, after the Yemeni Houthis launched an attack against Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea Coast. However, a third Chinese Supertanker left the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Saul Kavonic, an MST Marquee analyst, said that any recovery in the?flows of the Strait of Hormuz?is likely be slow and partial. Many shippers are still wary and want more confidence in their own safety before they send in new empty ships. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, Jamie Freed and Florence Tan)
(source: Reuters)