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Citi warns that oil could reach $150/bbl if the risks of Hormuz are not mitigated.

Citi said on Tuesday that it expects Brent crude prices to rise to $120 per barrel in the short-term. It stated that oil markets undervalue the risks of a "prolonged supply disruption" and other "tail risks".

The bank stated that its 'bull-case scenario' is that Brent prices will reach $150/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens during the third quarter.

The oil prices fell on Tuesday, after Vice President JDVance stated that the U.S. had made progress with Iran in their talks. Neither side wanted to see military action resumed.

Brent futures for the month of July?settled at $111.28 per barrel on Tuesday.

The report said that its outlook for 2027 oil prices was 'extremely hard to predict. But its central case assumes Iran will maintain a 'control of the Strait of Hormuz flow and balance oil exports against demand growth expectations.

Citi predicts that oil demand will contract by 0.6m barrels a day in 2026. The apparent weakness in demand is likely to overstate real consumption declines, as refinery reductions and inventory drawdowns mask relatively small end-use demand destruction.

According to the bank, global oil inventories are expected to drop by approximately 1 billion barrels in 2018.

Citi stated that "we?estimate" that the majority of these draws would occur outside China and that ex China inventories were on track to fall to 2011-2014 levels.

Citi was optimistic about the short-term but said that the current market conditions must continue for six to nine more months before the inventory levels outside of China will drop to the levels seen in the second oil crisis.

It maintained U.S. Henry hub?prices due to strong production, but also cited downside risks in Europe and Asia. TTF prices are expected to average around $17.8 for every million British thermal units, if disruptions continue. Anmol Choubey, Pooja Menon and Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru contributed to the report; David Gregorio edited it.

(source: Reuters)