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Gulf fears US-Iran discussions could cement Tehran's "golden" grip on Hormuz

Former Russian President?Dmitry Medvedev's warning has crystallised Gulf state fears that reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be all the Iran-U.S. negotiations can achieve and fall short of a?broader deescalation? they consider vital.

Analysts and officials expect that the next round, which is due to take place in Islamabad on November 30, will be more focused on the uranium enrichment limit and the way Iran can exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil shipping route on the planet.

Gulf?officials warn that the approach could entrench Iran's grip over Middle East energy by managing its leverage rather than dismantling it,?prioritising the global economic stability while leaving the most vulnerable countries to energy and security implications outside of formal decision making.

Gulf sources claim that U.S. diplomacy with Iran is now focused less on Iran's missile program and more on enrichment rates and accepting Tehran's leverage on Hormuz which transports about a fifth the world's oil supply.

Gulf officials are concerned about the new priorities in the Gulf, despite the fact that negotiations over enrichment remain stuck, as Iran refuses to enrich at all and also demands to export its stockpiles.

One Gulf source, close to the government, said: "Hormuz is the redline." It wasn't a problem before. Now it is. "The goalposts have been moved."

The Gulf Arab governments did not immediately respond to our requests for comments on the topics raised in this article.

Iran's threats against Gulf shipping during wartime have broken longstanding taboos around the Strait. This has made its disruption a real lever in negotiations for first time.

Medvedev - the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council - outlined Hormuz’s central role in a blog post on X, on April 8, 2008.

Medvedev stated that it was not yet clear how Washington and Tehran would come to an agreement. "But there is one certainty -- Iran has tested nuclear weapons. The Strait of Hormuz is the name of this area. "Its potential is unending."

The comment portrayed Hormuz in a way that Iran could raise costs and influence rules without going over the nuclear threshold.

HORMUZ IS a 'GOLDEN ASSSET', SAYS AN IRANIAN SECURITY RESOURCE

Iranian security officials?echoed that view in private, describing Strait of Hormuz not as an emergency but as a deterrent instrument prepared for years.

A senior Iranian source said that Iran had planned every step for years to prepare for a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz would be closed. Today, it's one of Iran’s most powerful tools - a form geographic leverage that acts as a powerful threat.

The source described the Strait as "a golden, invaluable asset rooted within Iran's geography - one that the world cannot remove precisely because it flows out of Iran's location."

Another Iranian source close to the Revolutionary Guards went even further and suggested that the long-standing taboo around the use of Hormuz had now been broken.

This source referred to Hormuz, as a "sword drawn from its sheath", that the U.S.A. and the regional states couldn't ignore. It gave the region leverage against external powers.

Analysts say that what most alarms Gulf Arab countries is the fact that, despite Iranian missiles, drones, and proxies repeatedly attacking their region, discussions are increasingly focused almost exclusively on Hormuz due to its global economic impact. This marginalises Gulf security concerns.

Gulf sources claim that the core of the Hormuz dispute has less to do with who controls the Strait and more to do with who sets the rules for passage. This reflects a wider shift away from international norms towards power-based arrangements.

Ebtesam al-Ketbi is the president of the Emirates Policy Center. He said that this exposes a disparity between those who set the rules and those who suffer the consequences when they are broken.

Al-Ketbi said that "what is taking shape is not an historic settlement, but a deliberate engineering for a sustainable conflict."

She added, "Who is suffering because of missiles and proxy states?" "Israel and the Gulf States. We would benefit from addressing missiles, proxies and Hormuz. "It seems that they are not interested in the missiles, or the proxies."

WARNING: SANCTIONS RELIEF

Analysts warn that such an approach to the talks will not resolve tensions so much as stabilize them at manageable level. This outcome may suit Washington and Tehran, but risk entrenching instability for Gulf States living under the missile threat.

Gulf economies are already feeling the effects of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran that began on 28 February. This includes attacks on energy infrastructure, as well as rising insurance and export costs. Alternative export routes increase costs and are still exposed to Iranian missile threats.

Diplomats claim that Gulf officials have asked Washington to refrain from lifting all sanctions, urging a "phased" approach in order to test Iran's behavior. They claim that the core threats are still unaddressed. This includes missiles capable of hitting Gulf capitals, and Iran's armed proxy forces used as extensions to the Iranian state.

The Arab Gulf is now awash with a range of feelings toward Washington, from a quiet resentment all the way to frustration and confusion about unilateral U.S. decisions.

Abdulaziz Sager of the Gulf Research Center in Saudi Arabia said that dealing with the Iran problem required a "different approach".

He added that "the U.S. was part of the regional security ..."." "But this does not mean going all-out without involving the regional."

Although Gulf leaders resent being ignored, they acknowledge that U.S. superiority in military capability continues to influence?outcomes.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE academic, said Gulf Arab states survived the war largely due to their defences and sophisticated U.S. weapons such as THAAD and Patriot.

A ANALYST SHOWS THE LIMITATIONS of relying on a single protector

Abdulla said that while America is indispensable, it's also fallible. He cited what he called its underestimation on the likelihood of a confrontation over Hormuz.

The U.S. repeatedly committed to?defending its Gulf Allies during the War via air and missile defense cooperation, naval safety and protection of critical infrastructure.

The Gulf states believe that one of the lessons of the war is to limit reliance on an external protector. Mohammed Baharoon said this, the director of Dubai's B'huth research center.

Gulf Arab leaders say that they have warned Washington for years against a conflict with Iran. Yet, they have been silent since the war began. Restraint is not only a reflection of diplomacy, but also of uncertainty about a conflict that they are paying for with economic costs and defense costs, but cannot control.

As Washington and Tehran continue to negotiate, Gulf officials claim that their exclusion is not a regional matter but rather a global issue, given the international importance of Hormuz. (Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi contributed additional reporting from Dubai. Editing was done by William Maclean.

(source: Reuters)