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IMF Chief economist: A long Iran war could require painful central banking tightening

The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund said that central banks may need to inflict more pain on the economy to control inflation caused by the long Middle East conflict than they did for the price spike after the pandemic.

In a Tuesday interview, IMF Chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices rose to $100 per barrel, a post-COVID overheated economy required small increases in interest rates.

Gourinchas stated that monetary tightening could be necessary, especially if inflation expectations are unanchored.

Gourinchas, who spoke at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, said that "stepping on the brakes will be painful".

You may need to cause a lot of pain to achieve the same result.

It's not clear yet how much central banks will need to do in order to combat the rising costs of oil, gas, and other commodities, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the conflict. IMF cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.1% on Tuesday, down 0.2 points since January. This is based on the assumption that the war would be short-lived, and oil prices will average $82 per barrel in 2018.

The institution's "adverse scenarios" include a prolonged conflict with oil prices averaging $100 and a slowdown in growth to 2.5%.

The "severe" scenario envisions a prolonged conflict with oil prices at $110 and $125 by 2026. The IMF believes that the global economy is on the verge of a recession as growth drops to just 2.0% in this year.

Gourinchas says that the main concern is that inflation expectations may become unanchored in a situation like this. He also adds that the inflation shock of 2022?had made consumers hypersensitive to price.

He said that companies would "raise their prices more easily" and workers "would seek higher wages faster".

"Once we enter that world, the people will look at this and conclude that inflation is here to stay." (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; David Lawder)

(source: Reuters)