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Gold prices rise on lower oil prices; inflation and rate outlook are in focus
Gold prices firmed up on Tuesday. They were boosted by lower oil prices after a fragile truce between Israel and Iran. However, inflation and interest rate hikes risks also dominated the discussion. As of 0602 GMT, spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,345.71 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion reach its lowest level in over two months. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were up by 0.2% to $4,370.80. Tim Waterer said that the slight ease in tensions between Israel and Iran had a positive impact on gold prices. Iran and Israel announced on Monday that they had stopped attacking each other after an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, Tehran warned that it would resume hostilities should Israel continue to hit Hezbollah. Prices of oil fell, wiping out most of the gains made on Monday. Gold is not a yielding metal, but it can be affected by higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level through 2026, and defer rate cuts until after 2027. They cite stronger economic growth and employment. According to the CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in a probability of more than 70% that a U.S. interest rate increase will occur by December. Investors will be watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index data for May, which is due on Wednesday. This will help them gauge?the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Waterer stated that a return to $5.500 gold is still possible by the end of the year, largely due to central bank demand. However, it would require a change in the oil prices, bond yields, and dollar, all of which need to be lower. Silver spot rose by 0.4%, to $68.45 an ounce. Platinum rose by 0.3%, to $1759.74. Palladium increased 1.5%, to $1223.44. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Sherry Jacob Phillips, Eileen Soreng and Subhranshu sahu)
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What is the ROI of automated for the people? AI as a public utility: Mike Dolan
Left-leaning U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, a Democrat, and Republican President Donald Trump share a surprising belief: The U.S. Government should invest in AI companies so that the public can benefit. Nationalization is back in style, and turning AI companies into quasi-utilities could no longer be an 'idle dream. Investors are giddy over the upcoming share sales of the AI boom's biggest names, OpenAI, and Anthropic. However, the government is worried about the potential seismic shifts in the economy and the society that could result from the rapid automation?of white-collar and blue-collar work. In an op-ed in the New York Times published on Monday, Sanders advocated that?the government take 50% of the shares in large AI companies. Vermont's independent senator said he intends to introduce legislation to create a sovereign fund to hold these stakes. He said that the fund would allow the public to have a say in the future of technology, and it would also secure a portion of the trillions dollars in profits for those workers who are most affected. Historically, this idea would have been a test balloon by a fiery politician. It was meant to spark debate, but little more, as the free market and private enterprise drowned out its message. Trump and perhaps even the CEOs of AI companies may think along the same lines. Last Thursday, the digital news outlet NOTUS reported that senior U.S. government officials had held a preliminary discussion with major AI firms about the possibility of the government buying shares in their companies. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was present at the talks. The focus of the discussions was to have the companies voluntarily cede their shares to the government. The report stated that the returns on investment would be used for public purposes, and perhaps even dividends paid to American households. Trump appeared to be on board by Friday. He told reporters on Air Force One that the plan was "very interesting" because it resembled a partnership between him and the American people. "We'll investigate that." In relation to the Sanders idea, he also said that he had been considering government investments in AI companies since over a year. "In terms of economics, Trump and Sanders are not that different." If you thought this was just a bunch of feel-good bluster then the tactic has already become a reality. An administration is pushing for?an unusually large role within the corporate sector. Last year, it bought a 10% stake of the U.S. chipmaker Intel, and stakes in rare-earth companies. It also acquired stakes in IBM, and a few other quantum computing firms. It is still unclear if?any? of this would fit into Trump's executive orders last year regarding the creation of a sovereign investment fund. The prospect of AI stakes now is not a fantasy. Fourth Wave of Nationalization It is not clear whether this should be a source of encouragement or fear for potential investors. Intel's shares have not been damaged by the government stake. Intel's stock has quadrupled since the government took a 10% stake in August last year. Washington's investment of $10 billion is now worth $50 billion. Some people may say that the government's stake in these companies makes them too large to fail, and highlights their success. Others will see the risk in the opposite direction: that state ownership discourages private capital, politicizes AI Governance and leaves taxpayers vulnerable if public investment underperforms. Questions remain, however, about the influence a government investor could have. It may be as a minority shareholder or by increasing its stake with time in order to gain greater control. Trump said to Fortune magazine last month that he "should have requested more" from Intel. Sanders' plan is ambitious. Could they become state-run utilities if AI and quantum computing companies are deemed vital to national security and economic growth? Sanders and OpenAI’s Altman both insist that AI is the sum of human experience. Artificial intelligence wasn't created in a vacuum. Sanders wrote that the data and language used by generative AI software didn't appear in Elon Musk or Sam Altman’s heads. "AI is based on our collective intellect: our songs, books, artwork, journalism and computer code. It also includes?scientific research. Videos, conversations, images, ideas, and videos spanning generations." In a world post-pandemic, where rivalry is more intense, there are greater supply chain concerns, tensions in trade, and national security issues, the government's control over strategic industries has grown much stronger. AI and quantum computing is increasingly seen as national resources in need of protection and investment. Nicholas Mulder, a Cornell professor, says we are now in the fourth wave of nationalizations since 1900. Since 2020, governments have taken half a billion dollars worth of assets around the world - the largest surge in nationalizations since the 1970s. The 'push' for governments to invest in tech companies that are growing fast may become panicky beyond America's borders. This could lead to a rush of investment in regional tech eco-systems, which would not have been necessary in a more globalized world. Ken Rogoff, former IMF chief economist, wrote in a recent article that governments who fail to secure a position in the AI supply chains may find themselves facing mass job displacement and without the state's ability to control the social or political consequences. He warned that "no one knows how such a world will look, or even how to prevent it from falling apart." This uncertainty could be enough for governments to move from regulating AI towards owning a part of it. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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China's May soy imports surpass expectations due to strong Brazil supply and faster clearance
China's imports of soybeans in May fell by 15.3% from the same month a year ago, but they were still the third highest volume ever recorded for a single month. This exceeded analysts' expectations, as South American supplies peaked and port logistics improved. The General Administration of Customs reported?on?Tuesday that total imports were 11.79 million tons, a decrease from 13.92 millions a year ago. Sublime China Information analyst Wang Wenshen said that May soybean imports were 11 million metric tonnes higher than expected. Wang stated that "given the fact that April imports are relatively low, a part of the May volume is likely to reflect cargoes which were delayed in April due?to slower customs clearance rather than an increase driven by underlying demand." Analysts and traders said that the time it takes to clear soybeans through customs has improved from 25 days to 10-14 days. The data shows that between January and May, arrivals of soybeans at the world's largest buyer were 36.94 millions tons. This is down 0.4% compared to 37.11million tons a year ago. Liu Jinlu is an agricultural researcher with 'Guoyuan Futures. He said that the arrivals of soybeans during the period between June and August are expected to average between 10 and 11 millions tons per month, indicating ample supplies for?the second quarter and third quarter. Brazil, the world's top soybean producer, exported 14.83 millions tons of beans in May. This is up from 14.10million tons a year earlier, according to Brazilian Government data. China is expected to be the main exporter. The traders are also looking for signs that China is re-demanding?U.S. soybeans. After Beijing agreed to expand agricultural trade in mid-May, Washington and Beijing held talks. In recent weeks, the absence of significant Chinese purchases following the meeting has put pressure on Chicago soybean futures. Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and SonaliPaul; Editing by Jacqueline Wong & SonaliPaul
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Mideast tensions and tight LME stock counter China's worries about demand. Copper prices remain stable
The copper price was little changed Tuesday, as the?support of dwindling London Metal Exchange inventory offset the?pressures from Middle East tensions and high oil prices. Benchmark three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange were down 0.22% by 0300 GMT, at $13,585.5 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 0.02% to 104,090 Yuan ($15,356.58) a ton. The London Metal Exchange has seen a decline in stocks, which is causing traders to shift their metals?towards the United States before the U.S. announces its decision on tariffs on copper imports at the end of June. Data released by China, the world's largest copper consumer, showed that imports of unwrought metal have declined significantly this year. This has capped prices. China imported 2,01 million tons of copper unwrought and copper products in the first five months of 2026. This is 7% less than a year ago. The Yangshan Copper Premium On Monday, the price of copper, which reflects the demand for imported metal, was at $64 per ton, its lowest level since April 28. High oil prices, conflict in the Middle East and concerns about the growth of the industry have put pressure on industrial metals. After a volatile weekend, when an exchange of fire occurred between Israel and Iran, oil prices were relatively calm on Tuesday. Aluminium fell by 0.31% on the LME, while zinc dropped 0.27%. Lead lost?0.38%. Nickel shed 0.77%. Tin declined by 0.95%. On the SHFE, aluminium fell by 0.37%. Zinc dipped by 0.24%. Lead dropped 1.86%. Nickel declined 2.11%. Tin shed 1.76%.
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Morning bid Europe- Fortune really has to favour the brave
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Asian investors, whether very brave or foolish, have returned to buying the dips on Tuesday, and most regional indexes are rebounding. News that Iran and Israel had agreed to halt their attacks for the foreseeable future helped lift oil prices. South Korea's Kospi has gained almost 5% after losing 8% on Monday. It is still up an insignificant 83% this year. The bull market has attracted more retail investors, who borrow to buy, and are therefore vulnerable to margin calls. Recent Bank of Korea data showed that retail investors had invested a record amount of?60 trillion ($39.06billion) in equities as of the end of may, through ETFs and chipmakers. Chinese shares rose in May as exports grew 19% from a year ago, while imports jumped 27%. Both exceeded market expectations. Imports are up 27% compared to a year earlier, and imports of oil have fallen by 29%. The Asian giant has a surplus of almost $114 billion with the United States so far this season. This is actually higher than in the same period last year despite President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade barriers. European stock futures are in modestly negative territory, but Wall Street's?futures have been boosted by the demand for semiconductor stocks. The majority of buying occurred in five stocks, and over 60% of the S&P 500 finished lower. Oracle's results on Wednesday and Adobe's the following day will be the next major test in tech. Apple shares did not benefit from the long-delayed AI upgrade of Siri that was unveiled at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. OpenAI, a ChatGPT maker, filed a confidential application for an initial public offering in the United States on Monday. They joined rival Anthropic and a rush of equity financing worth a trillion dollars. Tuesday's key developments that may impact the markets German industrial production, trade balance for April - U.S. Trade Balance for April,?May Existing Home Sales, May Small Business Optimism - Dinner and informal exchange of views between ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Governing council, and EU Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero, and Clean Growth
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Oil prices fall as investors wait for clarity following the Iran-Israel ceasefire
Prices of oil fell on Tuesday, wiping out most if not all the gains made in the previous session. This was after?Iran, Israel and President Donald Trump appealed to them to stop their attacks against each other. Both sides, however, warned that they might resume hostilities. Brent crude futures fell 91 cents or 1% to $93.34 per barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.13 or 1.2% to $90.17 per barrel. Prices rose?as high as 5% the previous session, after renewed Israeli attacks on Iran and attacks against Lebanon?reduced hope of an imminent ending to the larger war. However, gains were pared after Iran's military forces announced that they would cease their military operations against Israel. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that while there was some relief at the recent pause in direct strike, investors were not confident the truce would last. Iran and Israel have halted their attacks after President Trump's appeal that they "stop shooting" immediately. However, Tehran has said it will resume its strikes if Israel continues to strike Hezbollah. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that while this stopped the situation from snowballing, it did not change the fact that the geopolitical background remains tense and a lasting deal of peace remains elusive. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, said in a statement aired by Israeli Television that Israel would use force if Iran attacks again. In an interview with Axios published on Monday, Trump said that he warned Netanyahu?that he might find him fighting alone if went back to war against Iran. Waterer stated that the 'key question' is whether current de-escalation attempts can finally translate into an even longer-lasting solution, or if it is just another temporary lull. Washington's?main demand in the peace talks with Tehran is that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. This is because the Strait of Hormuz was the route through which a fifth of world oil supply passed before U.S. airstrikes were launched on Iran by Israel and the U.S. at the end of February. The U.S. Military said that on Monday, U.S. Forces disabled an unladen oil tanker after it tried to sail into an Iranian port, in violation of the current blockade of Iran.
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Gold prices steady as traders consider inflation and Israel-Iran ceasefire risks
The gold price was largely stable on Tuesday, as traders watched for signs of progress and inflation in the Middle East conflict. As of 0404 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.1%, at $4,333.91 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion at its lowest level in over two months. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down by 0.1% to $4,358.80. "Gold is trading muted. Traders are sceptical of the durability of the Iran/Israel ceasefire, and remain cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation data this week, which will shape the Fed's outlook," said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade. Iran and Israel announced on Monday that they had stopped their attacks after an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, Tehran warned it will resume hostilities should Israel continue to strike Hezbollah. Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2026, and defer rate cuts to 2027. They cite stronger economic activity and job growth. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in more than 70% of a Fed Rate Hike by December. Investors will be watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May, which is due on Wednesday. This data will help them gauge?the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Waterer stated that a return to $5.500 gold is still possible by the end of the year, largely due to central bank demand. However, it would require the cooperation of?oil, bond yields, and?dollar prices to fall. Silver fell by 0.5% per ounce to $67.85, while platinum dropped 0.1% to 1,752.45, and palladium grew 1% to $1,000.42. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Sherry Jacob Phillips, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Bankers: Tata Group's Indian units to sell bonds after a year-long gap
After more than 15 months, two merchant bankers said that two of India's Tata Group Infrastructure units will re-enter the corporate bond markets in the next few days. The Reserve Bank of India left its key policy rates unchanged in the past week, which provided some relief for the market. Tata Steel will raise 30 billion rupees (313.23) through the sale of bonds with a five-year term. Tata Projects, an?real estate company, may raise between 5 and 10 billion rupees by combining three-year paper with five-year paper. One of the bankers said, "Both companies have alerted their merchant bankers and are waiting for the rates to drop further before they tap the market." The bankers requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with the media. Tata Projects didn't reply to an email requesting comment. Tata Steel stated, "We don't have any immediate plans for bond issuances." According to LSEG, before the RBI's rate announcement, yields for AAA-rated corporate bonds of two-to five-year maturity had risen past 8%. This was their highest level since early 2019. Since then, they have fallen by a little over 50 basis points. Tata Steel has 150 billion rupees of outstanding bonds. Its 10-billion rupee maturity is in October. The borrower with AAA rating last raised money in the market on February 20, 2025. It did so by issuing?five-year bond at a coupon of?7.65%. Tata Projects, which is rated?AA by the rating agencies, raised 5 billion rupees in one month through a sale of six-year bonds with an 8.60% coupon.
Saudi Aramco closes Ras Tanura refinery following drone strike: source
Aramco, the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, shut down its 'Ras Tanura' refinery after a 'drone strike. An industry source confirmed this on Monday. This was in response to Tehran launching strikes throughout the region as a reaction to the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran.
Ras Tanura, located on the Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia, is one of the largest refineries in the Middle East, with a daily capacity of 550,000 barrels. It also serves as a vital export terminal for Saudi crude.
The source stated that the situation was under control and it was closed as a precautionary measure.
Aramco did not respond immediately to a request for comment sent via email.
The drone attack was part of a wave that targeted the Gulf region, including Abu Dhabi, Dubai Doha, Manama, and Oman's Duqm commercial area. The drone strikes have caused major shipping hubs to be paralyzed in the United Arab Emirates and Oman, and Brent crude futures rose by about 10% on Monday.
Saudi Arabia's heavily-fortified energy infrastructure has been targeted before, most notably in September 2019, when unprecedented drone and rocket attacks on the Abqaiq & Khurais plants temporarily knocked out?more than half of the Kingdom's crude production and roiled the global markets.
(source: Reuters)