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After US trade agreement, Indian stocks are boosted by reliance on export-linked sectors and reliant industries
After the India-U.S. trade deal, Indian shares surged Tuesday. The benchmark Nifty was within 50 points of a record high, led by Reliance, and export-oriented companies. The trade deal removed a major market overhang. Both benchmarks rose by about?5%? at the opening, their largest intra-day increase in five years. As of 9:41 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index was up 2.81% at 25,799.5 while the BSE Sensex rose 2.83% to 83977.22. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Monday a deal with India in which U.S. tariffs for Indian goods will be reduced to 18%, from 50%. In exchange, New Delhi must stop purchasing Russian oil and lower trade barriers. The 16 major sectors all posted gains. Small-caps and middle-caps both jumped by 3%. 46 of the 50 constituents of Nifty?50 advanced. Reliance Industries, the index heavyweight, jumped by 4% and became the top gainer on both indices. Early trade saw the rupee strengthening by more than 1% to 90.34 dollars, as investors hoped that the deal would attract foreign?funds into Indian assets after sustained outflows in the past year. The trade deal has a positive impact on equity markets. It increases earnings visibility and supports a re-rating of valuations, especially for sectors that are export-oriented or capex-linked. This strengthens India's position as a safe haven in emerging markets. After the trade agreement, components in export-oriented industries such as textiles, apparels and?seafoods, engineering goods, specialty chemicals, rose earlier in the morning. Analysts expect that concerns about foreign outflows will also ease following the trade agreement. Since the beginning of 2025, the main reasons for foreign selling of Indian stocks are the?delay of the India-U.S. Trade Deal, lack of exposure of emerging themes like artificial intelligence? and muted earnings. Since the beginning of 2025, foreign portfolio investors have sold shares worth $23billion. This has led to a 'rare underperformance in comparison with Asian and emerging markets peers. Peeyush mittal, portfolio manager of Matthews Asia, stated that the rupee's depreciation was due to tariffs on Indian products. Mittal stated that the trade agreement breaks the loop, promoting stability for the rupee. It also encourages foreign investors to assess Indian stocks more objectively.
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Dollar firm as oil falls amid possible US-Iran deescalation
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday for the second consecutive day as market participants assessed the likelihood of a deescalation of tensions between Iran and the United States. A stronger dollar also added to downward pressure. Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.5%, at $65.91 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down 31 cents or 0.5% at $61.83 a barrel. The oil prices dropped more than 4% after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Iran is "seriously speaking" with Washington. This signaled a de-escalation in tensions? with the OPEC country. Officials from both sides told reporters on Monday that Iran and the U.S. will resume nuclear talks in Turkey on Friday. Trump also warned that bad things could occur if there is no?deal, as large U.S. battleships are heading towards Iran. Phillip Nova Senior market analyst Priyanka sachdeva said that the sharp movements in oil prices during the past few sessions are more likely to be driven by sentiment than any significant shift?in fundamentals. After last week's rally the markets have quickly given back their gains as other risk assets also became volatile. Oil clearly failed to maintain gains. There was no new escalation in geopolitics and the macro data were still mixed. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered at a record high for more than a month, further weighing on prices. The stronger dollar hurts the demand from foreign buyers for crude oil denominated in dollars. Oil prices were also impacted by the continued recovery of the US dollar, which followed President Trump's nomination Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Trump announced a trade deal on Monday with India, which reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian products to 18% instead of 50%. In exchange, India will stop buying Russian oil and lower trade barriers. The ING analysts stated that "overnight,?the US agreed to a trade agreement with India... if this happens, it will lead to a further rise in the 'amount of Russian crude oil floating on the sea". Trump announced the deal on social media after a phone call with Indian PM Narendra Modi. He noted that India had agreed, to buy oil from both the U.S. Analysts have predicted that prices will be volatile this month. Sachdeva, from Phillip Nova, said that prices will likely remain range-bound and choppy in February. "Prices are expected to be highly reactive to headlines, macro indicators, and other cues, rather than to follow a clear trend. Risks are skewed towards the downside," he added. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee and Trixie yap in Singapore, with editing by Thomas Derpinghaus.)
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After a hard correction, copper gains traction
Investors saw that demand and supply prospects remained positive for the "red metal" as they continued to be concerned about supply. As of 0320 GMT the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had fallen 0.50% to 101,340 Yuan ($14.603.99) per metric ton, after gaining up as much as 0.80% in the previous session. The benchmark copper for three months on the London Metals Exchange rose by 0.82%, to $12,997.50 per ton. Copper prices have been in a downward spiral since Friday after reaching record highs at both exchanges. Shanghai copper fell as much as 13.65% from a record-high of 114.160 yuan to 98.580 yuan. The London benchmark?had fallen as much as 14.5% from its $14,527.50 high. The metals market recovered on Tuesday as gold and silver prices rebounded. Copper's strength is still strong after recent volatility. Mine disruptions, regional dislocations, and U.S. Tariff threats are keeping supply concerns alive. Meanwhile, the demand for copper remains strong due to its central role in AI data centers and electrification. The IGN analysts stated that "while volatility may continue in the near-term, copper's narrative remains intact and the dip will ultimately attract renewed purchasing once macro conditions settle." Copper prices are expected to fall, which will also?boost demand. This is despite the fact that China's top consumer market is going on a 9-day Lunar Break starting February 15th. This usually affects market activity. Yangshan Copper Premium After touching $20 per?ton last Thursday, the?ton, which measures Chinese demand for imported products, rose to $39 on Monday. Tin is the worst performing base metal on SHFE, with its most traded contract falling 9.65%, to 371,210 Yuan per ton. Nickel lost 2.34%, while lead and zinc both fell 1.31%. Aluminium dropped 2.48%. On the LME, lead was little changed. It fell by 0.80%. Zinc also dropped by 0.39%. Nickel and Tin moved in the opposite directions against their Shanghai counterparts, rising by 1.44% and 2 % respectively. Tuesday, February 3, DATA/EVENTS - (GMT) 0745 France Prelim CPI (EU Norm), YY, MM NSA January 0745 France Prelim CPI, YY MM NSA January 0745 France Prelim CPI, YY MM NSA NSA Jan
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China's Chambroad buys Canadian crude for May delivery, traders say
Four trade sources reported?on Tuesday that the independent Chinese refiner Chambroad Petrochemical had purchased one Canadian crude cargo for May delivery. This follows a decrease in Venezuelan crude supply to China. According to sources, the refiner is one of the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude oil. It also imports Canadian oil from the Trans Mountain pipeline for its bitumen manufacturing. Chambroad bought Canadian Cold Lake Crude exported?from TMX for a discount of close to $5 per barril compared to the July ICE Brent contract, according to two people. The crude was to be delivered to the eastern Shandong Province in 'May. Chambroad, which operates a 70,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Shandong and an 80,000-bpd refinery in the southern Hainan province, did not immediately respond to a ?request for comment. Venezuelan shipments into China have dropped sharply since the middle of December, when U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an embargo on ships sanctioned by the U.S., as part of a campaign aimed at President Nicolas Maduro, which culminated with his capture by U.S. troops in early January. Trade sources reported on Monday that independent refiners in Shandong were also purchasing discounted Iranian heavy oil to replace Venezuelan shipments. Reporting by Siyi Liu and Florence Tan in Singapore, Georgina McCartney and Chen Aizhu from Houston and Harikrishnan Nair in Houston.
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As more steel mills undergo repairs, the decline in iron ore continues.
Prices for iron ore futures fell on Tuesday as a result of a sluggish demand for steel ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year later in this month. As of 0246 GMT, the?most traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1.21% lower. It was trading at 777 Yuan ($111.97). The benchmark March ore at the Singapore Exchange fell 0.84% to $102 per ton. Prices fell on Monday due to a general commodities slump, led by gold. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that iron ore?transaction volumes at major Chinese ports fell as well on Monday. Steel mills are announcing maintenance plans in advance of the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, which begin on February 16. According to a note from Mysteel, they will resume production by late February or early March. This will temper the demand for feedstock, as hot metal production drops. The global iron ore shipment increased between January 26 and February 1. This was due to the mining giants Australia, Brazil and other countries. Steelhome, a consultancy, released data on January 30 showing that iron ore stocks at major Chinese ports increased by 1.16% in a week. Steel production curbs, environmental regulations, and weak domestic demand are expected to put pressure on prices in the upcoming months, according to a report published by BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions. The report said that a resilient global economy would continue to support Chinese steel exports by holding prices down. The DCE also lost ground for other steelmaking ingredients, including coking coal, which fell by 1.37%, and coke, which dropped by 0.49%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. Rebar fell by 0.51%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.37%; wire rods and stainless steels both declined 0.26%.
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Japan's food imports will reach a record high in 2025 due to strong US demand
Exports of agricultural, forest and fishery products to Japan rose 12.8% in 2025 to a record high. This was boosted by stronger shipments into the United States, despite the 'new tariffs', and a rebounding export to China from the previous year. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on Tuesday that exports reached 1.701 trillion dollars ($10.9 billion), up from 1.507 trillion dollars in 2024. This is a 13th consecutive year of growth and a new record, according to the ministry. Kazuyoshi nakasugi, MAFF's deputy director for export policy planning, said that the demand was driven by a growing global interest in Japanese food, increased awareness among tourists and a growing health consciousness. He said that these factors increased volumes through existing channels of trade and?the development?of new ones and drove exports to a number of countries to record levels, including the U.S.A., Taiwan?and South Korea?. The U.S. is Japan's second largest export destination, with shipments up 13.7% at 276.2 billion yen. Demand for green tea, beef, and other products despite the tariffs implemented in April, has been robust. Exports to China increased 7.0%?to 179.9 bn yen. This is a rebound from a slump of 29% in 2024. China banned imports of Japanese seafood in August 2023 after Tokyo Electric Power began to release?treated radioactive waters from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The ban was lifted?inmid-2025 but some restrictions still remain. Nakasugi stated that "even after the easing of trade, Japan's seafood exports have not recovered much." The government is continuing to encourage diversification of export destinations in Asia and the U.S. for scallops, and other seafood. Beef, rice, yellowtail, green tea and green tea all posted record exports in 2025.
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Dollar firm as oil prices remain steady, markets considering possible deescalation between the U.S. and Iran
The oil prices remained stable on Tuesday, as participants in the market weighed the likelihood of a deescalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. A stronger dollar limited the potential for price increases. Brent crude futures?were?up six cents or 0.1% at $66.36 a barrel?at 0102 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 0.2% at $62.24 a barrel. Oil prices dropped more than 4% Monday, after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that Iran is "seriously speaking" with Washington. This signaled a deescalation in tensions between the OPEC country and Washington. Officials from both sides said on Monday that Iran and the U.S. will resume nuclear negotiations on Friday in Turkey. Trump also warned of bad outcomes if there is no agreement, as large U.S. battleships are heading to Iran. The U.S. dollar index was near its highest level in more than a month, limiting the upside. A stronger dollar hurts foreign demand for crude oil denominated in dollars. Trump announced a trade deal on Monday with India, which reduces U.S. duties on Indian products to 18% instead of 50%. In exchange, India will stop buying Russian oil and lower trade barriers. Trump announced the deal via social media after a phone call with Indian PM Narendra Modi. He noted that India had agreed, to purchase oil from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. India has recently started to reduce its purchases of Russian oil. According to a report, in 'January they were at around 1.2m barrels per day. They are expected to drop to 1m bpd by February and 800k bpd by March. OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would not change its oil production for March. Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates along with Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq and Algeria, all eight members of the group, have raised their production quotas from April to December 2025 by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, or about 3% of world demand. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus in Bengaluru, Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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Asian stocks are up and gold is rebounding in a calmer market
The gold and Asian stock markets were both on the rise on Tuesday, as the trade tone remained calmer after the wild swings on metals markets. Factory activity. Japan's Nikkei gained 2.5% on Tuesday to recover Monday's losses, while South Korea's KOSPI climbed 4%. Futures pointed to a recovery for Hong Kong, while S&P futures rose 0.3% as traders awaited a busy week of earnings. Investors are looking forward to the central bank meeting that will take place in Australia on Tuesday. A strong jobs market, and a surprising hot reading of fourth-quarter inflation have led investors to bet on a rate hike of 25 basis points. Australian shares rose 1.3% early in the day and the Aussie Dollar, which had been bumpy, but recorded its biggest monthly increase in three years last January, was steady at $0.6958. Since U.S. president Donald Trump nominated Kevin?Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chairman, metal prices have been tumbling. Gold rose 3% to $4,800 per ounce in Asia this morning, nearly 9% higher than Monday's low. Silver traded 5% higher at $83.34 per ounce. Warsh's shrinking of the Fed balance sheet is pushing up bond rates, which is bad for precious metals because they pay no income. The price drop on 'Friday and Monday' went beyond the fundamentals. It was a blow to leveraged positions, and traders were forced to sell other assets in order bail out their 'losing bets. Christopher Forbes, CMC Markets' head of Asia and Middle East, said: "It was a flushing-out of leverage that had built up in the system." The bigger question is the pain from the unwinding of the gold and the silver...I am not sure that everyone will make it. WALL STREET STEADIES The PMI data revealed that overnight, U.S. manufacturing activity increased for the first time since a year, in January. This pushed up Treasury yields, but did not change the outlook for rates cuts. The benchmark 10-year yields in Tokyo were unchanged at?4.275%, while the two-year yields in New York, which had risen four basis points, remained at 3.57%. Alphabet shares reached a record high ahead of the earnings due later this week. Disney shares fell 7.4% after it warned about a drop in international visitors at its U.S. Theme Parks and a slump in earnings for its TV and Film division. On Tuesday, AMD and Super Micro Computer, a server equipment manufacturer, are expected to present their after-market reports. After last week's dramatic drop in the dollar, currency markets found a new level. The euro was trading at $1.18 during the Asia session. This is down from highs of $1.20 reached late in January. The yen is trading at 155.54 dollars and has lost about half of the gains made against the dollar after talk of a possible joint U.S./Japan intervention in order to boost the yen. Polls indicate that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party is likely to win a landslide at the weekend’s elections -- which would put pressure on bonds, and the yen. It would also give a mandate for her fiscal-loosening agenda. The rupee is expected to rise as a result of a U.S. India trade agreement announced overnight by Trump. It reduces tariffs and stops Indian purchases Russian oil in exchange for a suspension. Benchmark Brent crude ended 6% lower at $66.30 a barrel on the back of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Reporting by Tom Westbrook)
US extends protection to Venezuelan-owned Citgo against creditors
According to an announcement posted on the website of the Treasury Department on Monday, "the United States has extended through March 20 a license protecting Venezuelan-owned refiner Citgo Petroleum against creditors."
Houston-based refiner will be taken over an affiliate of Elliott Investment Management following a court-ordered sale of its parent company PDV Holding last year to pay billions to Venezuelan-linked creditors.
The auction winner will still need the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control to sign off, and for the protection license to be lifted before the sale order can be fully implemented.
OFAC hasn't issued an opinion in this case, as the Trump administration is moving to control Venezuela's oil industry. This comes after President Donald Trump captured President Nicolas Maduro last month and supported a government headed by Delcy Rodriguez.
Citgo's 830,000-barrel-per-day refining network ?remains overseen by supervising boards appointed by Venezuela's political opposition after ?U.S. sanctions were imposed on Venezuela in 2019, triggering Citgo's separation from its ultimate ?parent, Caracas-headquartered PDVSA.
Last month, the refiner was granted 'access to Venezuelan crude oil for the first time since seven years as part of oil exported by trading houses Vitol & Trafigura under U.S. licences. (Reporting and editing by David Ljunggren, Bill Berkrot and Katharine Jackson; Daphne Psaledakis and Marianna Pararaga)
(source: Reuters)