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OPEC projects continued oil demand growth in 2027.

OPEC said on Wednesday that world oil demand will rise at a comparable pace in 2027 to this year. They also published data showing a close balance between supply and consumption in 2026. This is in contrast with other forecasts which predicted a glut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) believes that the oil demand in 2027 will increase at a robust rate and that the transition to cleaner fuels is likely to be slower than other predictions. OPEC said that it expects the oil demand to increase by 1,34 million barrels a day in '2027. This is close to the growth of 1.38 million bpd expected this year. This is OPEC’s first 2027 forecast in its monthly report. OPEC's report stated that "global economic activity is expected maintain its strong performance both in 2026?and in 2027".

OPEC+, a group of OPEC countries plus Russia and allies, increased oil production last year, after years of cuts. The group plans to halt the increase in production during the first quarter 2026 due to widespread predictions of an oversupply.

OPEC+ pumped a total of 42.83 millions bpd during December 2025. This is a decrease of 238,000 bpd compared to November. The reductions were due to?reductions' in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela despite an agreement for boosting output in December.

The report predicts that demand for OPEC+ oil will average 43 million bpd by 2026. This is the same as last month, and very close to what OPEC+ was producing in December.

According to a calculation based on OPEC's report, if OPEC+ kept pumping at the rate of December in 2026, and all other things remained equal, production would have been 170,000 bpd less than demand. The IEA's latest figures suggest that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year by 3.84 million bpd, which is almost 4%.

OPEC's forecast for 2026 oil demand is higher than IEA's 860,000 bpd. The IEA updated its figures on January 21 but has not yet published a forecast for 2027 in its monthly report. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Olesya Astakhova, Editing by Mark Potter and Elaine Hardcastle

(source: Reuters)