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Russia at war faces double trouble - Trump's ultimatum, and the impact on oil sales to India

Russia, which is the second-largest oil exporter in the world, is considering how it will respond to U.S. sanction against top oil companies Rosneft, and Lukoil, and to the possibility of reduced sales to India, its largest buyer.

Since months, President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have been discussing a way to end the conflict. However, there has not yet been a breakthrough.

What did the U.S. do?

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, imposed sanctions against Rosneft, Lukoil and several of their subsidiaries on October 22, while calling on Moscow to agree to an immediate ceasefire.

Around half of Russia's crude oil production is produced by these two companies, and they account for more than 5% global crude production.

The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions in January against the Russian energy industry, including the oil majors Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz. However, these measures did not have a significant impact on Russian oil exports.

Some lawmakers are calling for even tougher sanctions. The U.S. already has introduced sanctions against this so-called "shadow fleet" that handles Russia's oil imports.

These sanctions are aimed at more than 180 ships and dozens oil traders, oilfield services providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.

What did India do?

According to two sources with knowledge of the situation, Indian refiners and their top buyer Reliance Industries intend to reduce or stop their Russian oil imports.

India is under increasing pressure from the United States to reduce its purchases in trade talks with Washington.

According to the International Energy Agency, it bought 1.9 millions barrels per day (bpd), or 40% of Russia’s total exports in the first nine month of 2025.

What does it mean for Russia?

In order to maintain its exports, Russia will likely be forced to offer greater discounts to buyers as a result of increased sanctions.

The oil and gas revenues account for up to one quarter of the Russian budget. They are also the main source of funds for Moscow's ongoing military campaign against Ukraine.

These taxes on mineral extraction are only paid in the oilfield. Sanctions will only be imposed if Russia has to reduce production.

How could Russia respond?

The Kremlin reacted to Trump's warning earlier this month that the Russian economy would collapse by saying that Russia has considerable reserves and is strong enough to enable Putin to achieve his objectives.

Stopping its crude exports would be one option, but it would harm allies like China and achieve what the West wants - a reduction in Moscow's revenues and war coffers.

Other options for Russia include cutting off important exports like enriched uranium or palladium, but that would also harm its own economy.

A second option is to intensify rare-earth collaboration with China. According to U.S. Geological Survey data, Russia has the fifth largest reserves of rare-earth metals in the world. A tie-up with China, which is the top player, would thwart U.S. attempts to counter Beijing’s dominance.

Russia has leverage over Western oil giants, as it controls Black Sea exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium that mainly transports crude from Kazakhstan.

This oil is being pumped by the U.S. giants Chevron & Exxon Mobil.

Kazakhstan is a country with whom Russia has strong economic and security links.

What about OPEC+?

Russia is a major member of OPEC+, which unites the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. It accounts for approximately half of the oil production in the world.

OPEC+ has unwinded production curbs in recent months to regain market shares, but a squeeze of Russia's exports may hamper the group's attempts to agree to further increases.

What about China?

China, along with India is the largest buyer of Russian crude. In February 2022, when Putin visited Beijing days before sending tens-of-thousands of troops to Ukraine, the two countries announced a partnership with "no limitations".

About 20% of China's crude oil imports come from Russia

China's Foreign Ministry reiterated on Oct 23 its position against unilateral sanctions when commenting about U.S. restrictions on Rosneft, Lukoil and other oil companies.

(source: Reuters)