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Saudi Arabia's earnings are weak and most Gulf markets follow Asian stock prices higher
On Tuesday morning, most Gulf stock markets were up, following the Asian benchmarks. This was due to a possible easing in U.S. China trade tensions. Saudi Arabia's index, however, fell because of disappointing corporate earnings. Dubai's main stock index rose by 0.3% with the top lender Emirates NBD advancing 1.9%. RBL announced on Saturday that ENBD would buy 60% of the Indian private lender RBL Bank, the largest acquisition of its kind in India's finance sector. The index in Abu Dhabi rose 0.3%. This was due to a 0.3% increase by investment company Multiply Group after the board of its parent company International Holding Company approved a plan for it to acquire 2PointZero, an investment platform, and food firm Ghitha Holding via a share exchange. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index fell 0.6% due to a 9.6% drop in Yamama Cement Company after a 63% fall in profit for the third quarter. The stock of the company is set to experience its biggest intraday drop since May 2020. Al Rajhi Bank, the largest sharia compliant lender, fell by 0.5%, despite recording a solid third-quarter result, even though its quarter-onquarter profit growth was only in the single-digits. Oil prices, which are a major component of Gulf economies, fell for the second day, as fears about the supply and the risks to demand resulting from the trade conflict between the U.S., and China - the two largest oil consumers in the world - weighed heavily on the markets. The Qatari Index was up by 0.2% and Qatar Islamic Bank gained 0.8%. (Reporting by Ateeq Shariff in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
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Shanghai copper gains pared back on caution before Sino-US trade talks
Shanghai copper lost its early gains on Monday, as traders awaited the upcoming U.S. China trade talks. China's slowing economic growth also stoked the market. After a session that saw a rise of up to 0.63%, the most active contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading at just 85,380 yuan per metric tonne. As of 0722 GMT, the benchmark three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.45%, to $10,643 per ton. Traders were looking for updates on the U.S. and China trade talks ahead of a high-stakes meeting between the leaders of the two world's largest economies next week in South Korea. Data shows China's Economic growth The third quarter saw a slowdown to an all-time low, and deflationary pressure continued. The previous gain was due to the return of copper bulls prices in the latest effort by U.S. president Donald Trump to reduce trade tensions. Trump said on Monday that China has no intention of invading Taiwan. He also acknowledged he would raise the matter at the meeting he plans to have with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Trump said he also expects a fair deal to be reached with Xi. The remarks were made during a meeting between the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Obama, at which they signed an important minerals agreement in order to counter China’s dominance of global supply. The U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China's vice premier He Lifeng in Malaysia to try and avoid an escalation of U.S. duties on Chinese products. Aluminium gained 0.19% among other SHFE base materials, while zinc rose 0.39%. Nickel increased 0.36%. Lead was up 0.35%. Tin posted a 0.69% gain. The LME metals index showed that aluminium fell 0.32%. Tin dropped 0.15%. Zinc increased 0.27%. Lead added 0.25%. Nickel was little changed. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Eileng Soreng and Lewis Jackson)
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China's important meeting on iron ore is in focus
Iron ore futures traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors focused their attention on a meeting between China's top leaders that will determine the economic policies of the second largest economy of the world for the next five-year period. A summary of the Communist Party's policy is expected at the end of the four-day meeting, which began Monday. The full plan with its development goals will not be published until March 2026. The meeting was held after data revealed that China's property crisis-hit sector continued to be a drag on the steel consumption. This also affected prospects for consumption of iron ore, an important steelmaking ingredient. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading 0.13% higher, at 769.5 Yuan ($108.03), per metric ton. It had earlier touched 760 yuan, the lowest since August 20, during the daytime session. As of 0755 GMT the benchmark November iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.41% to $103.95 per ton after having hit its lowest level since October 1, at $102.85. BHP Group, meanwhile, expressed optimism about global iron ore consumption on Tuesday, despite warnings of a slowing growth in China. China's crude output of steel fell to a 21 month low in September due to weak demand and declining steel margins. BHP's first-quarter iron-ore production, which is the third largest supplier in the world, was slightly below expectations due to maintenance work at Port Hedland, Australia. Coke and coking coal, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, fell by 3.49% and 2.73 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks have mostly fallen as a result of the lacklustre demand. Rebar dropped 0.36%. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.31%. Wire rod dropped 0.51%. Stainless steel gained 0.44%.
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Gold's record run is paused as dollar firms and investors book profits
The dollar rose on Tuesday and investors took profits. Gold had reached a new high the previous day on the hope of more interest rate reductions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and on strong demand for safe-haven assets. As of 0634 GMT spot gold was down by 0.7%, at $4,323.69 an ounce. It had reached a record high of $4.381.21 per ounce on Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.4%, to $4340.10 an ounce. Gold is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the 0.2% rise in the dollar index. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that profit-taking and a decline in safe-haven flows have combined to take the edge of the gold price. Any pullbacks will be seen as opportunities for buying gold while the Fed continues on its current rate-cutting path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a quart-point Fed rate reduction this month and another in December. In a low-interest rate environment, gold, which is a nonyielding investment, does well. Waterer stated that the current gold rally still has room to rise, provided U.S. CPI figures released later this week don't reveal any unpleasant surprises. According to economists surveyed by the, the data is scheduled to be released on Friday, after a delay caused by the government shutdown. The index should have risen 3.1% year-over-year in September. On Monday, the U.S. shutdown reached its 20th consecutive day after senators failed to resolve the impasse for the 10th time in a row last week. Kevin Hassett, White House's economic adviser, said that the shutdown would likely end this week. The shutdown has caused key economic data to be delayed, leaving investors and policymakers with a data vacuum ahead of next week's Fed policy meeting. In Malaysia, U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in an effort to prevent a rise in U.S. tariffs against Chinese goods. Spot silver fell 1.8%, to $51.54 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.8%, to $1.608.35, and palladium declined 0.9%, to $1.483.14.
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The Spanish market regulator has approved changes to control voltage fluctuations
The Spanish market regulator said on Monday that it had approved some of technical changes requested by national grid operator, after it detected sharp voltage swings across the country following a massive blackout last April. Initial measures are for 30 days, but they can be extended up to 3 months. The CNMC has approved some technical measures requested from grid operator REE with minor tweaks, but it has postponed a decision on a major proposed measure that would change the power grid voltage requirements for both conventional and renewable power plants. The CNMC stated that the modification of this measure "requires a deeper analysis" after feedback from generators who raised doubts about the ability to meet the new obligations. It said: "Therefore its immediate adoption is inappropriate until the evidence provided during the hearing process by the parties and its implications has been properly analysed." The grid operator requested these measures in early April, warning of "rapid voltage fluctuations" that could "potentially cause demand and/or production disconnections which end up destabilizing the electrical system." In a report published this month, the European network of electricity transmission systems operators stated that the power outage on the Iberian Peninsula that occurred on April 28th was the first blackout known to be caused by excessive voltage. (Reporting from Pietro Lombardi in Madrid and Joan Faus; editing by Matthew Lewis.)
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Andy Home shares five key takeaways for London Metal Exchange Week.
Metals are a hot topic these days. Silver is catching up to gold in terms of record-breaking prices. Rare earths are at the center of the U.S.-China trade dispute, and the industrial metal supply chain is bending under the new global order of tariffs. The London Metal Exchange Week (LME Week) seminars and parties this year were full of interesting topics. The annual metals conference in London last week was a great success. Here are five key takeaways. GREEN PREMIUMS Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearings (HKEx), the owner of LME, surprised LME Week by announcing a new Dubai-based subsidiary. Commodity Pricing and Analysis Ltd. (CPAL), a subsidiary of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearings, will be the pricing administrator in the roll-out for "green" premiums. CPAL will use the LME's criteria for responsible sourcing and data from the digital platform Metalshub. Metalshub traded more than $220 millions of Class I refined Nickel in 2023. Since March 2024, it has traded 488 tonnes of greenish nickel. Green-ish nickel is defined as metal that has a carbon footprint of less than 20 metric tons for every ton of metal. Metalshub's prices will be used to create a nickel premium that is sustainable, and this template can then be applied to other metals like copper and aluminum. CPAL, assuming that premiums are always available, will "apply structured expertise judgment" if there are not enough trades. It's an interesting venture into the worlds of price reporting agencies like Fastmarkets Media, Argus and S&P Global Platts. The pivot towards Dubai is also significant. HKEx presents it as a means of enhancing the connectivity between China's metal markets and those in the Middle East that are growing rapidly. SMELTERS VERSUS MINERS "You can't be secure if all you have is stuff in the earth." Richard Holtum said that smelting was more important than mining at the LME Seminar. Holtum stated that if the West is to break China's monopoly on exotic metals like gallium and Germanium, they will need to build base metal smelters in order to produce these metals. This argument has been echoed by the Australian government which has committed A$135m ($87.4m) to keep Trafigura's two plants operational. A collapse in the smelting fee for zinc and copper is a major factor. China's aggressive expansion in processing capacity has squeezed profit margins elsewhere. Spot copper treatment conditions are negative and eroding the revenue streams of smelters. Japan, Spain, and South Korea released a rare statement on Wednesday to express deep concern over the current state of affairs in copper raw materials markets. As smelters consider bilateral agreements or tolling contracts, they may no longer be able to maintain the current benchmark pricing system. Everyone loves Doctor Copper Copper was voted the metal with most potential price growth at the LME Seminar. It always does. The bulls in London were in full force this year. The reasons for a higher price of copper include the reallocation of funds to hard assets, the dysfunctional raw material market and the low stock levels resulting from the redistribution to the U.S. Even the self-proclaimed contrarians, such as Ken Hoffman from Traubenbach Associates, admit that in the long-term there is a robust growth of demand and a challenged supply. Wood Mackenzie predicts a 24% increase in global copper demand by 2035. Wood Mackenzie warns that data centers and other disruptive industries could "amplify the demand for copper and increase price volatility beyond expectation." The bull story is reinforced by the sharp increase in producer premiums for deliveries next year to European customers. Codelco, a Chilean producer, will now charge $325 per tonne over LME cash price for shipments in 2026. This is an increase from $234 last year. Aurubis, a German producer, had announced an increase of $315 per tonne. This is a sign that we are in the tariff era. It's a sign of the times. ALUMINIUM: A CHANGE FOR THE BETTER Jorge Vazquez of HARBOR Aluminium, the head of the consultancy, graced the LME Seminar with a maroon sweater number. He surprised the audience by turning bullish about the light metal. Vazquez, who has consistently been bearish on aluminium in past years, now believes that the price will be above $3,000 per tonne, and possibly even $4,000 next year. This is compared to a current rate of $2,765 a tonne. The market has reassessed the dynamics of aluminum supply. Analysts are beginning to question whether the supply will be enough to meet demand for the first decade. GERMANIUM Theo Ruas is the head of global sales for specialty materials at Indium Corp. in the United States. He said that there was no germanium. China's chip-making materials exports have dropped this year, after Beijing tightened the export restrictions by the end of 2020. Project Blue says the price of this material has reached a 25-year high, but Ruas said that some buyers struggle to find it at any price. Gallium may be where germanium is now. Or any other mineral that is dominated by Chinese processing. Rare earths are a major source of friction between the U.S., China and other countries. Beijing recently added five more elements to the list of restricted exports. Most metal traders are unaware of the existence of holmium (also known as erbium), thulium (also called europium), and ytterbium. But they now hold the keys to global markets. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Delhi air quality at hazardous levels after Diwali fireworks
According to Swiss company IQAir the air quality in India’s capital New Delhi deteriorated on Tuesday to dangerous levels, with the highest readings in the world. This is partly due to firecrackers used during Diwali, a Hindu festival of light. The Supreme Court of India relaxed its ban on firecrackers last week, allowing the use of "green crackers" in the city for three hours maximum each on Sunday and Monday, though witnesses reported that crackers were set off outside of the allowed times. The crackers emit emissions that are 30 to 50 percent lower than those of conventional fireworks. IQAir read New Delhi at 442, which makes it the most polluted city in the world. The PM2.5 concentration in New Delhi was 59 times higher than the World Health Organisation annual guideline. PM2.5 is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 microns and less. This can cause deadly diseases or cardiac problems. The Central Pollution Control Board of India (CPCB), too, rated the air quality in the city as "very poor", with an AQI measurement of 350. CPCB considers AQI between 0-50 to be good. Delhi's air quality is not expected to improve in the next few days. The earth sciences ministry predicts that the AQI will be between 201-400. Every winter, the dense smog that blankets India's capital, and its surrounding districts, is caused by cold, heavy air which traps dust from construction, vehicle exhaust and smoke from fires in agriculture. This causes respiratory problems for many of India's 20 million residents. To combat the problem, in the past authorities have closed some schools, stopped certain building works and restricted private vehicles. India is not the only nation in South Asia that suffers from toxic air. The government of Pakistan's Punjab Province, which shares its border with India, has launched an "emergency" plan to combat pollution. This includes actions against farm fires, smoke-emitting cars, and the use of antismog guns in areas polluted. IQAir data revealed that the air quality in Lahore (the capital of Punjab) was 234 - the second highest reading in the world. Sajid Bashir is the spokesperson for Punjab Environment Protection Agency. He said that the main issue at the moment is the air pollution coming from Indian Punjab. (Reporting and editing by YPrajesh, Kate Mayberry and Mubasher Bukhari; Additional reporting from Mubasher in Lahore)
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MPOC: Crude palm oil price to remain above $1 042 per tonne in 2026
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council announced on Tuesday that the price of crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 Ringgit ($1,042) a metric ton through 2026. This is due to biodiesel and an uncertain outlook for stocks. Concerns about the effect on Indonesian stocks due to a tightening of supply of soybean oil in Argentina B50 biodiesel mandate In a press release, the Council stated that it would support palm prices. It said that sentiment was still cautious because of the low crude oil prices, large vegetable oil inventories in major markets like China and India and due to the U.S. China trade war. The Council stated that there was an increase in U.S. stocks of soybeans since the harvest started there last month. China had suspended its imports of U.S. beans in May, and now buys primarily from South America. The report stated that "although stronger domestic crushing activities and higher soybean oil usage in the U.S. will be expected under the 45Z policy in 2026 which prioritizes domestically produced feedstocks, these factors are not sufficient to offset the sharp drop in exports to China." The report also stated that the global vegetable oil market in the upcoming season will be heavily dependent on sunflower oil. This is because the exportable supply of soybean oil in the U.S.A. and Brazil, which was 2.7 million tonnes in 2024/25, should drop to 1.6 millions tons in 2025/26 as a result of domestic biofuel demands. The Council stated that soybean oil had traded at a lower price between April and September, but now palm oil is trading at a higher price. The Council reported that by mid-October, palm oil was $42 per ton and $26 higher than soybean oil on the global market.
IMF: Global uncertainty is a major factor in the risks of Middle East outlook.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which last week raised its growth forecast for 2025 for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Levant, said that the risks in the region remain to the downside despite recent improvements in geopolitical conflicts.
The IMF raised its forecast of GDP growth in 2025 for the MENA Region to 3.3% from 2.6%, which it projected in may.
The outlook for this year was a resilient one, despite the fact we are living in a time of global uncertainty, where trade tariffs affect most of the world, and geopolitical tensions still exist, according to Jihad Azour. Jihad Azour is the director of IMF's Middle East & Central Asia Department.
Oil exporters in the region benefit from increased oil production, as well as public investment and structural reforms implemented as part of efforts to diversify their economies.
The lower commodity prices, the rebound in tourism, and increased remittances all contributed to the improvement of growth among oil-importing countries. Improved access to financial markets, and a moderated inflation, also helped.
Azour, speaking in Dubai ahead of the IMF Regional Economic Outlook report launch, said: "Of Course, these developments are taking place in an environment where the uncertainty is high and risks are skewed to the downside."
There were also increased tensions in the global economy, even though the region was less affected by this than other regions.
The geopolitical tensions have improved in the past couple of weeks, but we must remain vigilant.
TOURISM AND REMITTANCES BOOSTER EGYPT'S GDP FORECAST
The growth rate in Egypt has been revised upwards to 4.3% in 2025 from the 3.8% forecast in May. This is due to an increase in tourism revenues and strong remittances by Egyptians living abroad. The IMF bailout program in March 2024 helped to reduce inflation from nearly 40% in 2023 down to 11.7% in Septembre.
Azour stated that "we encourage the authorities" to speed up the implementation of these two milestones: divestment, and increasing the level of transparency in some state-owned companies.
He stated that IMF talks with Egypt are ongoing and will be completed in the fourth quarter.
Since 2020, the IMF approved $55.7 billion for financing in the region. Of this amount, $21.4 billion has been approved for Egypt, Jordan and Morocco since early 2024. Reporting by Rachna uppal, editing by Kim Coghill
(source: Reuters)