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Goldman is cautious about oil prices, as the prospect of increased Iranian supply weighs.

Goldman is cautious about oil prices, as the prospect of increased Iranian supply weighs.

Goldman Sachs stated on Sunday that it will maintain a cautious outlook for oil prices as the pressure of likely increased Iranian supply and higher OECD Commercial inventories will counteract support from stronger GDP growth globally.

The bank stated that it would maintain its Brent/WTI oil forecasts at $60/56 ($4 less than the forwards), for the rest of 2025, and $56/52 dollars ($8 less than the forwards), in 2026.

Goldman Sachs increased its Iran crude oil supply forecasts for the second half 2025-2026 from 3.6 million barrels to 3.6 millions barrels per day following media reports that progress was being made on a possible U.S. Iran nuclear deal.

Donald Trump stated on Thursday that a nuclear agreement with Iran is very near.

Goldman Sachs stated that if a U.S. Iran nuclear deal is achieved and implemented sustainably, Iran's crude oil supply may gradually increase by several hundreds of thousands barrels each day.

The bank stated that "Incorporating lower taxes and higher GDP we are raising our Q4-Q4 global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2020 by 0.3mb/d (and 0.1mb/d) and respectively to 0.6mb/d (and 0.4mb/d)," the bank added.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent will fall to $40 by the end of 2026 in a less extreme scenario, with both a global economic slowdown and a complete unwinding of OPEC's cuts.

Brent crude futures traded at $65,24 per barrel at 0326 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI crude) was trading at $62,38 per barrel. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)