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Oil prices rise 1% following US tariff-driven selling

The oil prices increased by more than 1% Tuesday. This is a rebound after recent heavy losses, mainly due to fears that U.S. Tariffs could depress demand or lead to a recession.

Brent crude futures increased 81 cents or 1.26% to $65.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures increased 92 cents or 1.52% to $61.61 at 0051 GMT.

Oil prices fell 2% on Monday, approaching a four-year record low. This was due to concerns that the latest tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump could push global economies into recession, and reduce energy demand. The markets, however, expect a possible limit to the downward trajectory for oil prices.

Trump claims that tariffs of at least 10% on all U.S. imported goods, and targeted rates up to 50% would help revive the U.S. industry base. He says it has declined due to decades' worth of trade liberalisation.

Many countries, such as China, the second largest economy in the world after the U.S. have announced plans to reciprocate tariffs. Trump has said that he will impose more tariffs against China if Beijing doesn't withdraw its countermeasures.

Tony Sycamore of IG said that if China were to remain firm, its total tariff rate for imports into the U.S. could reach 104%. This would likely trigger a further deterioration of risk sentiment and steep falls in global stock markets, as well as accelerate the pace at which the global economy is heading towards recession.

The market expects a weak demand for crude oil. A preliminary poll conducted on Monday showed that U.S. crude and distillate inventory levels were expected to rise by an average of 1.6 million barrels last week.

Analysts estimate that the break-even cost for oil production in America, the world’s largest oil producer, is around $60 per barrel. This could set a ceiling on how low oil prices can go if some decide to reduce investment and drilling.

If prices continue to be low, which is likely, this would lead to a slowdown in the growth of output and a fall in U.S. production from its current level at 13.4 million barrels / day. Eurasia Group stated in a report that the reduced activity is likely to support WTI prices in the $50s. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman, Jacqueline Wong, and Katya Glubkova from Tokyo)

(source: Reuters)