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US climate change pullback threatens planned Debt-for-Nature deals

US climate change pullback threatens planned Debt-for-Nature deals

The debt agreements worth billions of dollars that were designed to protect ecosystems in Africa and Latin America could unravel or need to be reworked amid fears of the U.S. backing drying up under Donald Trump.

Debt-for nature swaps have become more popular in recent years. Deals involving the Galapagos Islands and coral reefs as well as the Amazon rainforest are among the most notable.

U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has played a major role in the swapping of debt, with nearly 90% of the $6 billion being covered by the DFC.

Sources with direct knowledge said that the DFC has about five swaps on the way. These are now being questioned by the CEO-in-waiting Ben Black, and the U.S. Government efficiency chief Elon Musk.

Source did not specify the amount of debt covered by swaps, but noted that the last DFC-backed transactions involved more than $1 billion per deal.

Requests for comments on the future involvement of the DFC in such deals were not responded to by the White House or the DFC spokespersons.

Unnamed DFC officials confirmed that they stepped down as co-chairs of the global task force established in 2023 for expanding the use of debt exchanges.

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, has also criticized multilateral lenders who are working on climate change issues. This comes amid a wider retreat by the U.S. that has seen them withdraw from Paris Agreement in order to reduce global warming.

Four sources who have worked directly on the projects say that Angola, Zambia and one Latin American nation are among those countries whose debt-for-nature swap plans may need to be reworked and even abandoned because of uncertainty surrounding DFC.

Vera Daves de Sousa, Angola's Finance Minister, said that her country has been in talks with the DFC regarding two possible swaps. Her country is among the most indebted countries in Africa, and its rivers are vital to the Okavango Basin, which supports endangered elephants and Lions.

One is a debt-for-nature deal, the other a broader 'debt-for-development' swap tied to education and young people.

De Sousa said recently that he felt "openness" from DFC, especially in relation to the debt-for development swap.

She added, "We respect their view." "For us, there's no difference. We have opportunities both on the development and nature sides."

Things have also changed in Zambia. Late last year, the country was considering a trade involving its large national parks, which are home to more than 40% of Africa's Elephants.

Situmbeko Musokotwane, the Finance Minister of South Africa, said that although the swap was not entirely shut down at the moment, the country did not intend to actively pursue it.

NEW REALITY

Smaller nations that are struggling with debt and climate change can generate money by exchanging expensive government bonds for less expensive ones.

According to the UK-based non-profit International Institute for Environment and Development, the 49 world's poorest countries most at risk of a debt crisis could exchange a quarter the $430 billion in debt they currently owe.

Sebastian Espinosa of White Advisory, managing director, has advised Barbados and Belize on swaps.

These could include credit guarantee from multilateral development bank, along with private sector insurers, and guarantors. The Bahamas pioneered this last year.

In the past, DFC support has been critical in scaling up deals. It offers up to $1 billion of political risk insurance. This protects the people who purchase the lower-cost bonds in the event that the governments fail to pay.

"Who will step up?" Eva Mayerhofer, at the European Investment Bank who backed a Barbados swap in 2023 said: "I don't know (to replace DFC)." "We won't have the ability to convert debts so regularly."

The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), which has been involved in five out of nine of the debt-for-nature swaps over the past decade, often alongside the DFC, declined to comment on the impact of these swaps on its plans.

Stephen Liberatore of Nuveen, a leading investor in debt swaps, says that while it is possible to find substitutes for DFC, its knock-on effect has yet to be determined.

What is the cost of a private entity providing risk insurance compared to a public entity such as the DFC? Liberatore stated. "Does this change the amount saved?" The money is then used to conserve. "That is the ultimate question."

(source: Reuters)