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Gains in refining for energy group Orlen offset impairment losses, lifting shares
Orlen, a Polish energy group, reported adjusted core earnings higher than expected on Thursday. This was helped by a stronger downstream result which overshadowed the?net profit miss caused?by asset impairments as well as lower oil and natural gas prices. The shares rose 2.2% as of 0849 GMT. This boosted Poland's blue chip index WIG20 which rose by 0.5%. Analyst Tamas Pelser at?Erste Group said that the 4Q25 period was a positive one for the Polish energy giant, highlighting "the very strong contribution" of refining in a margin-friendly environment. Orlen's model refinement?margin increased in the fourth quarter, as sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure curbed diesel exports. This boost in downstream prices cushioned the impact of a wider commodity slump. Brent crude fell nearly 15%, and gas prices have fallen from their highs of last year. EBITDA LIFO (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and?amortisation) adjusted for the value of inventories and impairments fell 15% in the third quarter to 12.15 billion Zlotys ($3.40billion), but still beat the analysts' consensus estimate of 11.4 billion Zlotys. Orlen's net quarterly profit of 3,13 billion zlotys was below the 4.8 billion expected by the analysts polled before the results were published. In the fourth quarter report, net impairment losses totaling 3.34 billion zlotys were recorded on non-current assets. The fourth-quarter report showed a net impairment loss of 3.34 billion zlotys on non-current?assets. Orlen announced that it would spend?36.3 zlotys on capital expenditures in 2026. This is up from 32.6 zlotys spent last year. The first Polish offshore wind farm will be completed this year on the Baltic Sea. A gas-fired energy plant is also planned for the northern city of Grudziadz.
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At the AI summit, tech majors pledge billions to India
This week, senior executives from artificial intelligence companies around the world joined world leaders for an AI summit in?India. Here is a list of the major deals that were struck during the India AI Impact Summit in New Delhi. JIO INVESTS $110 BILLION IN INDIA'S RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Mukesh Ambani, the billionaire chairman of Reliance Industries, said that Jio and Reliance Industries will invest $109.8 Billion over the next seven-year period to build artificial intelligence infrastructure and data infrastructure. INDIA'S ADANI GROUP WILL COMMIT $100 BILLION?FOR AI-DATA CENTRES THROUGHOUT 2030 Adani Group, a port-to-power company, announced on Tuesday that it would invest $100 billion in renewable energy AI data centres powered by 2035. Adani stated that it is expected that the investment will trigger $150 billion in additional investments across related industries including server manufacturing, cloud platforms and sovereign cloud. It added that this would create an ecosystem of $250 billion in AI infrastructure for India within the next decade. MICROSOFT?TO INVEST 50 BILLION DOLLAR IN THE 'GLOBAL SURF' BY 2030 Microsoft announced on Wednesday that it will invest $50 billion in the next decade to expand AI across 'Global South countries'. Last year, the firm announced $17.5 billion in AI investments to India. YOTTA, AN INDIAN DATA CENTER FIRM, COMMITS TO $2 BILLION FOR AI HUB Yotta Data Services announced on Wednesday that it would build one of Asia's biggest AI computing hubs, using Nvidia Blackwell Ultra chips. The project will cost more than $2 billion. INDIAN EXPORTER OF IT SERVICES TCS SIGN OPENAI AS A DATA CENTER CUSTOMER Tata Consultancy Services announced on Thursday that it had signed up OpenAI, parent company of ChatGPT, as its first customer under Stargate's global AI infrastructure initiative. INDIA’S L&T AND?NVIDIA WILL BUILD THE LARGEST AI FACTORY IN INDIA Infrastructure giant Larsen &Toubro announced a joint venture with Nvidia. The two companies will work together to develop AI-ready data centres, advanced computing platforms and ecosystem enablement to support large AI workloads. (Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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Cricket-Marsh leads Australia to a crushing victory over Oman in T20 World Cup Dead rubber
Australia thrashed Oman in Pallekele by nine wickets, winning the final Twenty20 World Cup group match in Pallekele. Both teams had already been eliminated from the competition. Mitchell Marsh, who was given a modest target of 105 to win, wasn't in the mood to wait around. He ruthlessly sent Oman's bowlers all over the place, reaching his half-century within the first powerplay. Shakeel Ahmad, from Oman, collided with Vinayak Shukla after he caught Travis Head and bowled him for 32. The 38-year old spinner was overjoyed that he performed Cristiano Ronaldo's trademark celebration. Marsh, who scored 64 runs with seven boundaries and 4 sixes, led 'Australia to victory with 62 balls left to spare. This was a record-breaking chase for a T20 World Cup total of over 100. Australia placed third with two wins, two losses and no points. Oman was the only team without a win. CLINICAL BOWLING DISPLAY FROM AUSTRALIAN Adam Zampa finished with 4-21. Australia had earlier produced a brilliant bowling performance to dismiss Oman in 16.2 overs, after winning the coin toss and choosing to field. Fast bowler Xavier Bartlett started the game with a wicket on the first ball. He removed Aamir Kaleim when his delivery crashed against the stumps. Bartlett's movements troubled the batters, and Jatinder Singh also bowled his next over. He finished with two powerplay?strikes which put?Oman in the backfoot. Oman tried to rebuild, but none of its batters were able to convert their early scores into significant ones. Wasim Ali was the standout with his gritty 32 from 33 balls. He provided the only significant resistance to the steady wicket-taking at the other end. Oman's spinners struggled to keep up with Australia, often misjudging the length of their pitches and playing the wrong line. Zampa took his fourth four wicket haul in T20 World Cups, while Glenn Maxwell, whose first over was marred by a dropped catch, also contributed with two wickets. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams in Bengaluru, Rohith Nair from Bengaluru)
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Gold Fields increases shareholder returns after profits more than doubled
South 'Africa's Gold Fields announced on Thursday that its full-year profits?more than doubled. This was due to record bullion prices, increased production, and a boost in dividends. Gold prices are expected to rise by 60% by 2025 due to geopolitical and financial uncertainty, the expectation of U.S. rate cuts, and increased purchases by central bankers amid a trend of global dedollarization. Gold prices have risen 15% this year. Gold Fields increased production by 18% in the last year, to 2.438 millions ounces. The miner's headline earnings per share grew to $2.88 from $1.33 the previous year. Gold Fields announced a final "dividend" of 18.50 Rand per share, an increase from 7 Rand. This brought the total payout per year to 25,50 rand, up from 10 rand in 2024. In addition, the company will distribute an additional $353 million to shareholders in the form of special dividends worth $253 million and share buybacks worth $100 million. Gold?Fields' CEO Mike Fraser stated that the company is engaging with the Ghanaian government, which has proposed doubling of the gold royalty?rate as a response to the bullion prices rally. The talks have been?constructive. Fraser said in an interview that while he understood the social needs of Ghanaians, he wanted to make it clear that all governments should take a stance against creating uncompetitive, structural?situations. Gold Fields' Tarkwa Mine in Ghana will be its most productive mine by 2025, out of its entire portfolio, which includes assets in South Africa, Australia, Chile, and Peru. Tarkwa mine produced 475,000 ounces gold last year, which is about a fifth the total Gold Fields output.
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Asia shares boosted by technology as Iran and rate uncertainty dominate markets
Asian stocks rose Thursday, supported?by gains in technology giants from Wall Street. Meanwhile, lingering U.S. Iran tensions supported oil prices and gold was underpinned by safe-haven flows. The dollar was a firm currency after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed that policymakers weren't in a hurry to lower rates. The trading was thin in Asia, with Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan closed to celebrate the Lunar New Year. However, MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.4%, and Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.70%. The Kospi index of South Korea has risen by more than 3%, reaching a new record high. The news that Nvidia had signed a multiyear agreement to sell millions of its artificial intelligence chips, both current and future, to Meta Platforms on Tuesday triggered a surge in the shares of Wall Street's tech giants. "We needed good news. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said, "I think there's been a general sense of malaise?in the technology sector." "Nvidia was at the forefront of the rally that we saw through to 2025. And now it could be coming to the rescue... some much needed good news can possibly?set tech shares for a better run up until Nvidia earnings next week." The European markets were set to open with a mixed performance. EUROSTOXX '50 futures fell 0.11% while FTSE?futures?added 0.15%. DAX futures fell 0.3%. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.17%, while S&P500 futures climbed 0.11%. Geopolitics was also prominent in the markets. Oil prices continued to rise after a surge in the previous session as investors priced potential supply disruptions due to fears of a war between the U.S. Brent crude futures rose by 0.16% to $70.46 per barrel, after a 4.35% jump in the previous session. U.S. crude gained 0.25% to $65.35 following a 4.6% increase on Wednesday. Michael Every, senior strategist at Rabobank said that the balance of risk now favors a U.S. attack after Friday's market close. He added that an attack would likely last for weeks, rather than being over "by Monday morning". Gold, the safe haven, continued to be bid on and remained steady at $4.998.18 per ounce. FED OUTLOOK The dollar held gains on Thursday, despite better than expected U.S. data. Minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting also revealed that several policymakers were open to rate increases if inflation remained high. The yen fell to a lower level than 155 dollars per pound, achieving 155.26. Charlie Ripley is a senior investment strategist with Allianz Investment Management. He said: "From our perspective the minutes of the Federal Reserve confirm our belief that rate reductions are off the table in the near future." While some market participants look at inflation through the rearview mirror, the Fed continues to signal the safety warning that 'objects in mirror are closer than it appears'. Policymakers noted that disinflation may be moving at a slower pace. The?euro was also pushed down to $1.18, and bought $1.17915 at its last price, due to the news that European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde is planning to quit her position early. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.07% to $0.5970 after falling 1.4% the previous session. This was due to the central bank of the country calming market expectations that it would make a pivot towards hawkish policy at its meeting.
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Five miner presumed dead following mudslide at South African diamond mining
South Africa's Mining Minister said Friday that five diamond miners who have been?missing? since Tuesday after a mudslide occurred deep underground are presumed to be?dead. Gwede Mantashe said at a press briefing that the bodies of those who were killed should be recovered, South African Broadcasting Corporation (SAB) reported. Miners were trapped more than 800 meters underground when a "mud rush" occurred at the Ekapa Mine in Northern Cape Province. Ekapa Minerals said that all operations had been stopped immediately following the incident and that rescue efforts continued. Howard Marsden, Ekapa Minerals' General Manager, said that the time since the event was a "major concern" but that there had been no changes in their approach to rescue efforts. Mantashe stated in a separate press release that an investigation will be conducted to determine what happened. South Africa's mining industry and government have made efforts to reduce the number of mine-related deaths and injuries as part of "Zero Harm", a campaign. The?country's 41 mine-related deaths was its lowest ever. Ekapa Minerals informed the families of trapped?miners who held a candlelight vigil on Thursday night near the mine. Kimberley was the location of the 19th century diamond rush that attracted fortune seekers from around the world. Diamond revenues helped to finance the colonial ruler Britain during two world wars. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Winning; Additional reporting by Sfundo parakozov, Editing by Anathi madubela)
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At least 50 people are killed and women, children and other victims taken hostage in Nigeria's Zamfara State
A state legislator said that armed men attacked a village in Nigeria’s northwest Zamfara State, killing at least 50 and abducting?several children and women. Hamisu Faru, a lawmaker from Bukkuyum South, claimed that the attackers attacked Tungan Dutse Village at around 5?p.m. On Thursday, the attackers burned down buildings and shot residents who fled. Faru, a phone caller, said that "they have been moving between villages... and leaving at least fifty people dead." He said that the number of abducted victim 'was still to be determined. Traditional leaders and local officials are still trying to find the missing. The Zamfara State Police spokesperson did not return calls for comment. Abdullahi Sani (41), a resident of Tungan Dutse said that three members of his family were killed in the attack. He said, "We are all in pain. No one slept yesterday." Residents contacted local authorities and security forces a day earlier when they saw more than 150 motorcycles with armed men. Sani claimed that the warning was ignored. Insecurity is a major concern in Nigeria, and the government faces increasing pressure to restore stability. In northern Nigeria, there has been an?increase in attacks that are blamed on "bandits". They have committed?deadly assasinations, kidnappings for ransom and forced communities to relocate. Reporting by Ahmed Kingimi, Writing by Chijioke Ahuocha, Editing by Philippa and Alex Richardson
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Andy Home: ROI-Power overrules tariffs, as another US aluminum smelter closes.
The U.S. import duties haven't stopped the United States from losing another aluminum smelter. This leaves only five primary metal production facilities in the country. Century Aluminum suspended production at its Hawesville Smelter in 2022 due to a spike in energy prices following Russia's invasion in Ukraine. They expected to resume operation within a year, once the power prices dropped. Century didn't deliver, and now the company has sold its Kentucky site to digital technology company TeraWulf. Aluminium smelters are massive energy users. A modern plant uses more electricity than a city of the size of Boston. Big Tech is also willing to pay more for data centers, and the fight for long-term energy supply. HALTING THE SLIDER Last year, U.S. president Donald Trump raised the import tariff on aluminium to 50% with the stated aim of stopping the decades-long decline in the domestic primary metals capacity. Century's Mount Holly smelter, located in South Carolina, has had a limited impact on the immediate future. It will restart 50,000 metric tonnes of capacity annually. Tariffs were important, but extending the power supply agreement with Santee Cooper (a local energy provider) was more crucial. By the middle of 2026, the plant will be operating at near-capacity of 220,000 tonnes per year. A state-of the-art greenfields smelter is on its way in Oklahoma. This joint venture, which is 60:40 between Century and Emirates Global Aluminium, promises to be a future success. Bechtel, a U.S. engineering company, has been selected by the partners to conduct preliminary studies on the proposed plant. It would have an annual capacity of approximately 750,000 tons. Oklahoma's advantage is that it produces three times as much energy as it consumes. A power supply agreement for the new plant is still in the works. Even if construction starts on time by the end this year, the first metal production will likely not begin until 2030. LOSS OF CAPACITY FLEX Hawesville's permanent closure reduces the idle capacity that can be used to fill in the gaps between now and the opening of the new Oklahoma smelter. Hawesville, with its annual capacity of 252,000 tonnes, was the second largest remaining smelter in America. It also supplied high-purity aluminum for aerospace and defense applications. Alcoa has a 54,000 ton-per-year production at Warrick in Indiana that is idle, but it does not seem to be in a hurry to restart it. The cost of reactivation is estimated at $100 million, and it would take two years. "At this point, we are unlikely to restart," William Oplinger, Alcoa's President and CEO, told analysts during the company's Q4 results call for 2025 last month. The only remaining smelter is the New Madrid one in Missouri. It was reactivated by 2018 and closed in 2024. Tariffs have reignited hope that the 263,000 ton-per-year facility could be brought back to life, but it would cost a lot and take a long time. Magnitude 7 Metals, the current owner of Magnitude 7, has not indicated its intentions. No Tariff TRUCE According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 60% of aluminum consumption in the United States last year was imported. It won't change until the Oklahoma smelter moves from "project" status to actual production. The Trump administration does not seem to be willing to back down on its import tariffs. The White House dismissed media reports that it would lower tariff rates or provide more exemptions, as "baseless speculative speculation". According to a senior administration official, Trump "will not compromise on reviving the domestic manufacturing which is crucial to our economic and national security. This includes steel and aluminum production." Some tweaks may be made, but a wholesale rollback is unlikely. This means that aluminum consumers in the United States will be paying high prices for their metal for the next couple of years. S&P Global Platts assesses the Midwest Aluminium Premium, which is traded on CME. This premium captures the tariff impact of the market. The London Metal Exchange's cash price is $2,290 a ton, which translates to a "all-in" rate of $5,300 a ton. The fact that Hawesville has not been able save itself from a?such a high premium? says a lot about the fierce competition between Big Tech and other power providers for a competitively priced product. AI still wins out against aluminium. Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available at Open Interest. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Editing by Marguerita choy)
US climate change pullback threatens planned Debt-for-Nature deals
The debt agreements worth billions of dollars that were designed to protect ecosystems in Africa and Latin America could unravel or need to be reworked amid fears of the U.S. backing drying up under Donald Trump.
Debt-for nature swaps have become more popular in recent years. Deals involving the Galapagos Islands and coral reefs as well as the Amazon rainforest are among the most notable.
U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has played a major role in the swapping of debt, with nearly 90% of the $6 billion being covered by the DFC.
Sources with direct knowledge said that the DFC has about five swaps on the way. These are now being questioned by the CEO-in-waiting Ben Black, and the U.S. Government efficiency chief Elon Musk.
Source did not specify the amount of debt covered by swaps, but noted that the last DFC-backed transactions involved more than $1 billion per deal.
Requests for comments on the future involvement of the DFC in such deals were not responded to by the White House or the DFC spokespersons.
Unnamed DFC officials confirmed that they stepped down as co-chairs of the global task force established in 2023 for expanding the use of debt exchanges.
Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, has also criticized multilateral lenders who are working on climate change issues. This comes amid a wider retreat by the U.S. that has seen them withdraw from Paris Agreement in order to reduce global warming.
Four sources who have worked directly on the projects say that Angola, Zambia and one Latin American nation are among those countries whose debt-for-nature swap plans may need to be reworked and even abandoned because of uncertainty surrounding DFC.
Vera Daves de Sousa, Angola's Finance Minister, said that her country has been in talks with the DFC regarding two possible swaps. Her country is among the most indebted countries in Africa, and its rivers are vital to the Okavango Basin, which supports endangered elephants and Lions.
One is a debt-for-nature deal, the other a broader 'debt-for-development' swap tied to education and young people.
De Sousa said recently that he felt "openness" from DFC, especially in relation to the debt-for development swap.
She added, "We respect their view." "For us, there's no difference. We have opportunities both on the development and nature sides."
Things have also changed in Zambia. Late last year, the country was considering a trade involving its large national parks, which are home to more than 40% of Africa's Elephants.
Situmbeko Musokotwane, the Finance Minister of South Africa, said that although the swap was not entirely shut down at the moment, the country did not intend to actively pursue it.
NEW REALITY
Smaller nations that are struggling with debt and climate change can generate money by exchanging expensive government bonds for less expensive ones.
According to the UK-based non-profit International Institute for Environment and Development, the 49 world's poorest countries most at risk of a debt crisis could exchange a quarter the $430 billion in debt they currently owe.
Sebastian Espinosa of White Advisory, managing director, has advised Barbados and Belize on swaps.
These could include credit guarantee from multilateral development bank, along with private sector insurers, and guarantors. The Bahamas pioneered this last year.
In the past, DFC support has been critical in scaling up deals. It offers up to $1 billion of political risk insurance. This protects the people who purchase the lower-cost bonds in the event that the governments fail to pay.
"Who will step up?" Eva Mayerhofer, at the European Investment Bank who backed a Barbados swap in 2023 said: "I don't know (to replace DFC)." "We won't have the ability to convert debts so regularly."
The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), which has been involved in five out of nine of the debt-for-nature swaps over the past decade, often alongside the DFC, declined to comment on the impact of these swaps on its plans.
Stephen Liberatore of Nuveen, a leading investor in debt swaps, says that while it is possible to find substitutes for DFC, its knock-on effect has yet to be determined.
What is the cost of a private entity providing risk insurance compared to a public entity such as the DFC? Liberatore stated. "Does this change the amount saved?" The money is then used to conserve. "That is the ultimate question."
(source: Reuters)