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Backwardation in US oil futures narrows to a 20-month low amid fears of a glut
The front-month U.S. Crude Oil Futures contract ended Monday's trading with the smallest premium over the seven-month contract since January 2024, as OPEC+ increases supply and seasonal refinery maintenance pressures the demand for immediate barrels. The market term for immediate delivery fetching a higher premium than later deliveries suggests that investors are losing money by selling their oil on the spot market, as the near-term supply appears to be abundant. For the first time since January, U.S. crude oil futures would be in a contango if the spread reversed from a premium into a discount. WTI crude futures settled for November delivery at $59.49 a barrel on Monday. The May 2026 contract settled for $59.02 a barrel, creating an additional 47 cents per barrel for the prompt barrels The narrowest since last January 16th. Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, said that the narrowing of the gap is indicative of an excess of supplies in the short term and then a concern about tightening of supplies when future demand increases. Lipow said, "We're seeing an increase in supply from OPEC+. This, combined with reports that more oil is in floating storage, puts pressure on the curve at the front, along with seasonal refinery maintenance. OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus its allies) has increased their oil production targets this year by over 2.7 million barrels a day, which is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. This has stoked supply glut concerns. Shohruh Zhritdinov said that this is flattening WTI's curve, as the market now prices in less tightness for early 2026, according to a Dubai oil trader. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average U.S. refinery usage for a four-week period fell to 92.5%, its lowest level since the first half of June when the U.S. driving season began. Zukhritdinov stated that "physical builds and refinery delays equate to a lower need to pay for prompt barrels." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio in Houston, Georgina McCartney from Houston)
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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism
On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a new high. As of 01:47 pm, spot gold had risen 2.2%, to $4,106.48 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,116.77 at 1747 GMT ET (1747 GMT), spot gold was up 2.2% to $4,106.48 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December closed 3.3% higher, at $4133. Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor. Gold could continue to rise. "We could see prices above $5,000 by 2026," said Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Streible said that the structural support of the market is provided by steady central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows as well as U.S. China trade tensions. The geopolitical front saw U.S. president Donald Trump reinitiate trade tensions with China, ending a tense truce between two of the world's largest economies. While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Standard Chartered's forecast for next year has been raised to $4,488 on average. Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "We believe this rally will continue, but a short-term correction is better for a long-term trend." Spot silver climbed 3.1% to $51.82, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.12. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market. Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the relative strength of the two metals, is 80 for gold and 83 in the case of silver. Palladium rose 5.2% to 1,478.94, while platinum gained 3.9%. Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha, Sherin Elizabeth Varighese, and Kavya Varghese; Additional reporting and editing by Joe Bavier and Alexander Smith; Shreya Biwas.
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Officials say that 19 people were killed by rebels affiliated with the Islamic State in eastern Congo.
Two local officials reported on Monday that suspected Islamic State-backed terrorists killed 19 civilians during an overnight attack in eastern Congo. This has exacerbated the insecurity of this mineral-rich area. Alain Kiwewa is the Lubero territory military administrator, where Mukondo lies, and he told reporters that the death toll may rise. The ADF has not immediately claimed responsibility. Also known as the Islamic State Central Africa Province, (ISCAP), it has been responsible for several attacks in recent weeks, including a September attack on a funeral in which more than 60 people were killed. ADF could not be reached for comment immediately. Assailants from Mukondo were wearing uniforms that looked like those of the Congolese Army, which enabled them to enter Mukondo without being noticed. The attackers then used guns, knives, and clubs to attack people, according to a local priest who refused his name out of security concerns. Espoir Kambale, a leader of the civil society in the region, put the death toll at 19. He also said that eight people were injured and 26 homes had been burned. Kambale said, "We ask ourselves how the terrorists came and attacked us when we thought the village was secure." The population is in a panic. "Some residents fled to the bush and never returned." The ADF began as a Ugandan rebel force, but is now based in the Congolese forests since the late 90s. It has also been recognised as an affiliate by the Islamic State. The recent attacks by the M23 rebels, who are backed by Rwanda, have increased security concerns in eastern Congo. This has prompted U.S. president Donald Trump's administration, to attempt to broker peace. Reporting by Congo Newsroom; Writing by Ayen deng Bior; editing by Rob Corey-Boulet, Lisa Shumaker and Lisa Shumaker
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EU lawmakers oppose cuts to the reach of sustainability laws
The European Parliament’s Legal Committee backed plans on Monday to weaken the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Law, which has been criticized by companies who claim that complying with these rules will hinder the competitiveness for European industries. Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), adopted by the European Union last year, requires companies to address human rights and environment issues in their supply chain or face a fine of 5% global turnover. The European Parliament's Legal Committee voted on Monday to approve proposals that would only make the rules compulsory for companies with at least 5,000 employees and a turnover of 1.5 billion euros. CSDDD is currently applicable to companies that have 1,000 employees or more and a turnover of over 450 millions euros. The committee also supported dropping the requirement that companies have "transition plans." CUTTING BUSINESS COSTS The (conservative-leaning) European People's Party's aim has always been to reduce costs and simplify rules for businesses," said Jorgen Warsborn, the legislator who drafted the approved text on Monday. "Our vote will bring more predictability to our businesses in a world that is unpredictable," said Jorgen Warborn, the lawmaker who drafted the text approved on Monday. The committee asked that the European parliament begin negotiations with EU countries on final rules without a vote by the entire assembly. The committee could force a vote by a group of legislators equivalent to 10% of the assembly. Some of the proposed changes are already likely to be implemented. EU countries have already stated that they support changing the law so that it only applies to companies with at least 5,000 employees. CSDDD is one of the most controversial parts of Europe’s green agenda. Countries such as the United States and Qatar have demanded changes. The EU, they argue, is going too far by imposing these requirements on foreign firms. TotalEnergies and other European companies have called on the EU to scrap the law completely, warning that it could harm the competitiveness of the EU. Investors and activists have reacted negatively to the move, claiming that it undermines corporate accountability while reducing Europe's capacity to attract investment towards meeting climate goals. Amandine van den Berghe, senior lawyer at nonprofit law firm ClientEarth, said: "If these changes are adopted in the end, this law would be stripped of its purpose to serve short-term political convenience." What is a cornerstone for responsible business in Europe has been turned into a bargaining chip. (Reporting from Kate Abnett in Brussels and Inti landauro; Editing by Benoit van Overstraeten, Matthew Lewis).
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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism
On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a record high. As of 12:17 pm, spot gold had risen 2.4%, to $4,114.31 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,116.77 at 1617 GMT ET (1617 GMT), gold prices have risen 2.4% to $4114.31 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 3.3% to $4133.90. Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor. Gold could continue to rise. "We could see prices above $5,000 by 2026," said Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Streible said that the structural support of the market is provided by the steady central bank purchases, the firm ETF inflows as well as the U.S. China trade tensions. Streible added that on the geopolitical side, U.S. president Donald Trump reignited the trade tensions between China and the United States last Friday, ending a tense truce. While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in environments with low interest rates. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale expect gold to hit $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered's forecast has been raised to $4,488 on average next year. Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "This rally is strong, but a short-term correction will be better for a long-term trend." Spot silver increased 3.1% to $51.82, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.07. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market. Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the strength of the relationship between two assets, is 80 for gold. Palladium rose 6.5%, to $1496.52. Platinum gained 5%, to $1666. Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha in Mumbai and Sherin-Elizabeth Varghese; Additional reporting and editing by Joe Bavier & Alexander Smith.
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Trump will meet Zelenskiy this Friday to discuss air defense and new weapons
Three sources familiar with the plans said that President Donald Trump would meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for a luncheon on Friday. The meeting comes amid increasing discussions over the possible provision of Tomahawk long-range missiles to Kyiv. Both leaders met on Saturday and Sunday. A high-ranking Ukrainian delegation, headed by Prime Minister Yulia Shvyrydenko is scheduled to arrive in Washington, DC, before Friday's meeting, to prepare the groundwork for their talks. One of the sources, who requested anonymity, as the visit had not been announced publicly, stated that the main topics would be air defense, additional U.S. arms for Kyiv, and Russia's possible return to the negotiation table. Zelenskiy is lobbying Washington for the supply of U.S. Tomahawk missiles that can hit Moscow but are only used on military targets, according to Ukrainians. Moscow said that such a move could be a significant escalation. Trump said that he was considering sending Tomahawks into Ukraine. He also stated that he may speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine and the U.S. also appear to be closing in on an historic drone deal, in which Ukraine will share drone technology with United States. European diplomats view such a deal to be an important tool in keeping the volatile U.S. President engaged and supportive of Ukraine. Reporting by Steve Holland in Washington, Tom Balmforth and Gram Slattery from London. Editing by Jeff Mason & Matthew Lewis.
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Gold reaches $4,100 on the back of trade tensions and rate-cut optimism
On Monday, gold broke through $4100 per ounce, a new record, on renewed U.S. China trade tensions, and on expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Silver also reached a new high. As of 10:50 am, spot gold had risen 2.1%, to $4,099.55 an ounce. After hitting a new record of $4,103.58 at 1450 GMT ET, gold prices rose 2.1% to $4099.55. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose 3% to 4,120.10. Gold prices have risen 56% in the past year, and last week they reached the $4,000 mark for the first. This is due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Central bank purchases are also a major factor. Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, said that gold and silver prices rise when investors become concerned about the current state of the economy or politics. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, reignited the trade tensions between China and the United States on Friday. This ended an uneasy truce that existed between the two world's largest economies. While traders price in a 97% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in October, and a 100% probability for December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in environments with low interest rates. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale expect gold to hit $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered's forecast has been raised to $4,488 on average next year. Standard Chartered Bank's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper said: "This rally is strong, but a short-term correction will be better for a long-term trend." Spot silver increased 3.3% to $51.95, reaching a record high earlier in the session of $52.07. This was boosted by the same factors that supported gold and tightness on the spot market. Technical indicators indicate that both gold and silver are overbought. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the relative strength of a currency, is 80 for gold. Palladium rose 5.4% to $1.482.00, while platinum gained 4.6%. (Reporting from Sherin Elizabeth Varighese and Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru, Additional reporting by Kavya Baliaraman; Editing and Joe Bavier by Alexander Smith and Joe Bavier)
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EU legislators back further reductions to the sustainability law
The European Parliament’s Legal Committee on Monday supported plans to further reduce the EU's Corporate Sustainability Law, which has been criticized by companies who say that complying with these rules would hinder European industries' competitiveness. Last year, the European Union adopted the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which requires companies to address human rights and environment issues within their supply chains or risk a fine of 5% global turnover. On Monday, the European Parliament’s Legal Committee approved proposals to limit the application of the regulations to only those companies with at least 5,000 employees and a turnover of 1.5 billion euros. CSDDD currently covers companies with at least 1,000 employees and a turnover of more than 450 millions euros. The committee also supported dropping the requirement that companies implement "transition plans" in order to align their activities with climate change goals. The EPP has always sought to simplify the rules and reduce costs for business -- even going beyond the original Commission proposal. "Our vote today will bring more predictability to our businesses in a world that is unpredictable," said Jorgen Warborn. He was the legislator who drafted and approved the text on Monday. The committee asked that the European parliament now begin negotiations with EU countries on final rules. The EU Parliament as a whole will decide whether or not to proceed with this request next week. It appears that some of the changes are already likely to be implemented. EU countries have said that they are in favor of changing the law so it only applies to companies with at least 5,000 employees. CSDDD is one of the most controversial parts of Europe's Green Agenda. Countries like the United States, Qatar and others have demanded changes, claiming that the EU has overstepped by imposing demands on foreign companies. TotalEnergies and other European companies have called on the EU to scrap the law completely, warning that it could harm the EU's economic ability to compete with foreign competitors. Investors and activists have reacted negatively to the move back on ESG regulations. They say that it undermines corporate accountability, and Europe's ability attract more investment towards climate goals. Some companies also have resisted. In an August survey conducted by the think-tank E3G with YouGov of 2,500 European company leaders, 63% said that they were in favor of large companies implementing a climate change plan. Only 11% disagreed. (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett, Inti Lanauro)
The Supreme Court's top cases
In the current term of the U.S. Supreme Court, there are cases that involve guns, gender affirming medical care for minors who identify as transgender, online pornography and religious rights, TikTok and preventive healthcare. There are also cases involving funding Planned Parenthood, job discrimination and federal regulatory powers over nuclear waste storage, vape products and voting rights.
Take a look at the recent and upcoming cases that the justices will be deciding.
'GHOST GUN' On March 26, the court upheld a federal rule targeting "ghost guns", which are largely untraceable, imposed by former Democratic President Joe Biden in an effort to crackdown on firearms that have been used in crimes across the country. The ruling by 7-2 overturned the lower court decision that the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives exceeded its authority when it issued the 2022 rule targeting the parts and kits of ghost guns. The court found the regulation to be in line with the 1968 federal Gun Control Act.
TRANSGENDER RIGHTS During arguments on 4 December, the court's conservative judges indicated that they were willing to uphold Tennessee's Republican-backed ban on gender affirming medical care for minors who are transgender. This case could have a significant impact on other state laws that target transgender individuals. Biden's Administration appealed the decision of a lower court upholding Tennessee’s ban on medical treatment, including hormones and surgery for minors suffering from gender dysphoria. This refers to the distress caused by the incongruity of a person’s gender identity with the sex assigned at birth. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
MEXICO GUN LAWSUIT On March 4, the justices showed sympathy for a request by two American firearms companies to dismiss the Mexican government’s lawsuit accusing the companies of assisting illegal gun trafficking to the drug cartels, and fueling violence in Mexico's southern neighbor. The justices heard arguments from Smith & Wesson, a firearms manufacturer and distributor of Interstate Arms in their appeal against a lower-court ruling allowing the lawsuit on the basis that Mexico had plausibly alleged the companies aided and facilitated illegal gun sales and harmed its government. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
U.S. TIKTOK BAN On January 17, the justices upheld a federal law that would ban TikTok from the United States if the Chinese parent company ByteDance failed to sell the short video app within a time limit set by Congress. The Justices ruled, 9-0, that the law passed by Congress and signed by Biden last year did not violate First Amendment protections against government abridgment. The justices upheld a lower court decision that had affirmed the measure. Biden's replacement, Republican President Donald Trump chose not to enforce it and instead gave both parties time to work out a compromise.
Online Pornography The Justices heard arguments about whether the First Amendment protects against government interference in speech when a Texas law requires that pornographic sites verify users' ages to limit access by minors. The justices voiced concerns over the availability and accessibility of online pornography, but also expressed concern about burdens placed on adults who wish to view constitutionally-protected material. A trade group representing the adult entertainment industry has appealed the decision of a lower court that upheld the Republican-led State's age verification mandate. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
WORKPLACE DISCRIMINATION On February 26, the court heard arguments in a case where a woman claimed that she was denied a job promotion and demoted because of her heterosexuality by an Ohio government agency. The justices seemed to favor making it easier for those from "majority backgrounds" to bring workplace discrimination cases, such as straight or white people. Marlean Amees, the plaintiff, said that she worked with a homosexual supervisor when, in 2019, she was demoted and passed over for promotion to a woman gay. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
RELIGIOUS SCHOOL The court will hear a case that tests the separation between church and state. Two Catholic dioceses are attempting to establish the first taxpayer-funded charter school in Oklahoma. St. Isidore Catholic Virtual School was shut down by a lower court, which ruled that the funding arrangement for the school violated First Amendment restrictions on government endorsements of religion. Arguments will be held on April 30.
RELIGIOUS TASKS EXEMPTIONS A Wisconsin Catholic diocese's arm has filed a request for an exemption from Wisconsin's unemployment insurance taxes. The case could have implications for the constitutional rights of religious people. The Catholic Charities Bureau of the Catholic Diocese of Superior appealed the lower court's rejection of its exemption request. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the bureau, it could force Wisconsin and other states that have similar tax programs in place to expand their exemptions to conform to the First Amendment protections of the U.S. Constitution. The arguments are scheduled for 31 March.
LGBT SCHOOL BIBLES The court accepted a request from religious parents who wanted to prevent their children from attending classes in a Maryland district public school when LGBT stories are read. This is yet another case that involves the intersection of religion and LGBT rights. Parents of children attending Montgomery County Public Schools filed an appeal after lower courts refused a plaintiff's request for a preliminary order ordering the district not to read these books. Arguments will be held on April 22.
OBAMACARE - PREVENTIVE CARE MANDATES The court will determine the legality of an important component of the Affordable Health Care Act, which gives a taskforce established under the Obamacare healthcare law the power to demand that insurers provide preventive medical services without cost to the patient. The court heard an appeal from the Biden administration against a lower-court ruling which sided with a Christian group of businesses that objected to the fact that their employee health plans covered HIV-preventing medications and had argued the task force structure violated U.S. Constitution. Arguments will be held on April 21.
PLANNED PARENTHOOD FINANCE The court will examine South Carolina's attempt to cut off funding to Planned Parenthood. This case could support conservative states in the U.S. who want to deny Planned Parenthood government money for reproductive healthcare. A lower court barred the Republican state from cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood South Atlantic under the Medicaid insurance program. Arguments will be held on April 2.
NUCLEAR WASTE STORAGE On March 5, the justices heard arguments over whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had the authority to issue licenses for certain nuclear waste facilities, amid objections raised by the state Texas and oil industry interests. The U.S. Government and a company awarded a license to operate an operation in western Texas by the NRC appealed the ruling of a lower court declaring that the storage arrangement was illegal. The NRC regulates nuclear energy in the United States. The NRC is expected to make a decision by the end June.
FLAVORED vapor products The Court on April 2, largely backed up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in its refusal to allow two ecigarette companies to sell flavored vapes that regulators deem a risk to health for youths. The court threw out the lower court decision that found the FDA violated a federal law known as the Administrative Procedure Act by rejecting the applications of the companies Triton Distribution & Vapetasia to sell these nicotine-containing items.
EPA AUTHORITY On March 4, the court handed a major blow to the Environmental Protection Agency with a ruling of 5-4. The case involved a wastewater treatment plant owned by San Francisco. This could make it more difficult for regulators and water quality inspectors to monitor pollution. The court ruled that EPA had exceeded its authority in a law against pollution by including vague restrictions on a permit for the facility which discharges into the Pacific Ocean. In recent years, the court has limited the EPA’s power as part of a number of rulings that have curbed the federal regulatory agencies’ powers.
TAILPIPE Emissions A major case that tests the power of the Democratic-ruled state to combat greenhouse gases is a challenge by fuel producers against California's standards on vehicle emissions and electric vehicles under a federal law on air pollution. Valero Energy, along with fuel industry groups, appealed the lower court's decision to reject their challenge against a Biden administration decision to let California set its own regulation. Arguments will be held on April 23.
The Supreme Court is hearing a dispute regarding the legality and operation of the TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERIES FUND, a fund that Congress authorized to be operated by the Federal Communications Commission in order to increase access to telecommunications. The conservative Consumers' Research group and others accused Congress of illegally delegating authority to an independent federal organization. The FCC, along with a coalition including interest groups and telecoms companies, appealed an earlier court decision which found that Congress had violated the Constitution when it gave the FCC the authority to manage the fund. Arguments will be held on March 26.
LOUISIANA ELECTORAL MAP On March 24, the justices heard arguments in a bid to preserve an election map that increased the number of Black-majority districts in the state. This was in response to a legal challenge brought by a group voters who identified themselves as "non African American." Three federal judges determined that the map of Louisiana's six U.S. House of Representatives district - which now has two Black-majority areas, instead of one - violated the Constitutional promise of equal treatment. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
Death Penalty Case On February 25, the court threw away Richard Glossip’s conviction in Oklahoma for a murder-for hire plot that took place in 1997 and gave him a fresh trial. In a 5-3 decision, the justices concluded that prosecutors had violated their constitutional obligation to correct false testimony from their star witness. The justices reversed the lower court decision which had upheld Glossip’s conviction. They also allowed his planned death to proceed despite Glossip’s claim that prosecutors had wrongly withheld information that could have helped his defense. (Compiled by Andrew Chung and John Kruzel; edited by Will Dunham.)
(source: Reuters)