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Brazil second corn crop expected to fall 10.5%, consultancy says

Dry spell in two key Brazilian corngrowing states is lowering the prospective size of the nation's 2nd corn crop, according to Agroconsult, an agribusiness consultancy that this week is beginning a. countrywide field trip.

Agroconsult said on Wednesday that Brazil's 2023/24 second-. corn crop, known as safrinha corn, is expected at 96.7 million. metric loads, down 10.5% from in 2015's safrinha crop.

Safrinha corn represents 70% -80% of nationwide production and. is mainly exported in the 2nd half to nations such as. China, competing directly with U.S. farmers. Brazil is among. the greatest corn exporters.

International corn stockpiles, however, are set to reach five-year. highs in 2024.

Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are expected to lose part of. the crop due to dry weather condition during March and April, despite. having actually planted second-corn in a more favorable time window than. last year.

The scenario in Mato Grosso do Sul, without a doubt, is the. most distressing, stated Agroconsult's crop tour organizer, Andre. Debastiani. The entire southern region of the state was. affected by drought, which has currently caused irreversible. damage.

However, great yield potential in 2 center-western states. ought to partially balance out losses somewhere else, Agroconsult said,. highlighting well-distributed rainfall during corn's. advancement phase in Brazil's leading farm state Mato Grosso.

At the start of the season, Agroconsult thought farmers. would lower the planted location of second corn by around 1 million. hectares (2.471 million acres) driven by greater production expenses. and falling costs. This month, nevertheless, Agroconsult raised its. estimate for safrinha location to 16.3 million hectares (40.2. million acres), although plantings would be 662,000 hectares. smaller than in 2022/23.

Parana farmers, for example, increased their safrinha area. by 10.9% this season as farmers there felt they 'd be able to plant. it during the ideal climate window, Agroconsult stated.

Mato Grosso, where second-corn location fell 5.5%, had. signs earlier of a much greater reduction in planted area,. which did not occur, Agroconsult stated.

Much of Rio Grande do Sul is struck by serious floods, nevertheless. the southern state does not produce safrinha corn.

(source: Reuters)