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Green steel is possible and even economical, but still unlikely: Russell

D ecarbonising steel production is crucial to attaining global netzero emission targets and fortunately is that it can be attained, and the expense isn't expensive for some uses.

The bad news is decarbonising steel isn't most likely to happen without policy, combined with cost incentives that drive a. shift in financial investment and usage.

Steel production accounts for about 8% of worldwide carbon. emissions and about 30% of emissions from industry, and the. sector is the major consumer of metallurgical coal, which is a. essential source of heat and carbon required to turn iron ore into. steel.

The figuring out consider any conversation about switching to. producing green steel is just how much more will it cost than the. present, well-established techniques, and whether it can be scaled. up quickly enough.

The cost premium demonstrates how it can work, and equally why it. likely won't.

The bright side is that the premium is not as huge as many. would fear, relying on how and where you produce the green. steel.

The premium might be nearly absolutely nothing or as much as about $150 a. metric heap, according to the consensus of discussions at last. week's Global Iron Ore and Steel Projection Conference, kept in. Perth in Western Australia, the state that produces the bulk of. the world's exported iron ore.

To put that in perspective, hot-rolled coil futures in. Shanghai ended at 3,782 yuan a ton on Tuesday,. comparable to $524.24, while London-traded U.S. steel. ended at $803.

Figures from Monash University in Australia reveal that green. steel might be made in Western Australia for about A$ 850 ($ 570). a load utilizing a mix of wind, solar, battery storage and hydrogen.

The problem is that even a relatively modest premium likely. makes green steel unviable for much of the market, where costs. are a significant aspect.

CHINA STEEL

Take China's steel demand as an example.

China produces about half of the world's steel and purchases simply. over 70% of worldwide seaborne iron volumes.

Its steel consumption in 2024 was 907.3 million loads,. according to information from S&P Global Product Insights.

The only sector that may be prepared to pay a premium for. green steel is automobile manufacturing.

Since the volume of steel per automobile is probably, this is. around 1-1.5 loads, suggesting that even presuming a premium of $150. a lot for green steel, the effect on the retail price of a. car is minimal.

It's possible the marketing worth of stating the automobile is. produced with green steel might exceed the actual expense of utilizing. the environmentally friendly product.

Nevertheless, China's automotive sector used 54 million lots of. steel in 2024, according to S&P Global, which is a mere 6% of. overall need.

The most significant steel consumers are home and facilities,. which utilized a combined 518 million lots in 2024, or 57% of the. overall.

A modern skyscraper structure might use about 700 lots of steel. per flooring, suggesting a 100-story building would utilize some 70,000. lots, which at a premium of $150 a lot would add about $10.5. million to the cost.

High-speed rail can use in between 30,000 and 60,000 tons of. steel per km, and even utilizing the lower figure suggests going green. adds $4.5 million per km.

Both of these numbers indicate that green steel is likely. unaffordable for these applications, especially in Asia, the. world's most populous continent and the biggest chauffeur of steel. demand presently and likely for the next thirty years.

INVESTMENT SWITCH

The 2nd significant aspect facing green steel is how to. switch from the current technique of utilizing a blast heater to turn. iron ore into pig iron using coal, and after that utilizing a fundamental oxygen. heating system (BOF) to turn this into steel.

There are a number of various paths readily available, however the one. probably to succeed includes using green energy to upgrade. iron ore into direct reduced iron (DRI), which can then be. become steel using an electrical arc heater or by using a. hydrogen or gas powered BOF.

However, DRI is too volatile to be shipped, meaning that if. Australia was to update its iron ore to DRI, it would have to. be further beneficiated into hot briquetted iron (HBI), a strong. kind that can be delivered.

It's possible that HBI might be shipped from Australia to. steel mills in China, Japan and other producing countries in. Asia, however these countries would need to have the green hydrogen. or tidy electricity offered to produce the final steel. items.

All of this requires extensive capital expense, and. presently the cash isn't streaming in this instructions given China. and other countries across Asia are still building blast. bofs and furnaces created to utilize coal.

This is why the only method to drive a switch to green steel is. likely through regulation and price signals such as carbon. border taxes.

But getting international arrangement on a carbon prices system for. steel is most likely to be stuffed, as developing countries in Asia. will almost certainly push back on having to pay more for their. steel.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)