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Gold surges and euro droops as wider war risks increase
Gold was headed for its largest weekly gain in almost 8 months on Friday and the euro hovered at a 13month low as Russia decreased its limit for using nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic ballistic rocket at Ukraine. The threat of escalation also sent European gas costs to a 1 year high and pressed investors towards safe havens, underpinning German financial obligation and putting the Swiss franc on course for its very first weekly rise in 2 months. In Asia on Friday, chipmakers led stocks a bit higher after Nvidia touched a record high in U.S. trade on solid profits, with shares in Taiwan and South Korea up more than 1% and the Nikkei gaining 0.8%. Gold was consistent at $2,677 an ounce and up more than 4.5% for the week so far while bitcoin, based on the edge of breaking above $100,000 for the very first time. Assets connected to Adani Group companies stayed under pressure, with dollar bonds nursing losses following chairman Gautam Adani's indictment for scams by U.S. district attorneys. Russia on Tuesday decreased its threshold for using nuclear weapons and over night responded to the U.S. and UK allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with western weapons by firing a. hypersonic intermediate-range missile at Ukraine's Dnipro. Those weapons usually bring nuclear warheads, stated. experts at ANZ Bank, noting the attack sent oil rates higher. The exchange suggests the war has actually entered a new stage,. raising concerns around interruptions to provide. Brent unrefined futures are up almost 4.5% on the week. and edged approximately touch a two-week high of $74.44 a barrel in Asia. trade. The euro has been friendless and down for seven of the past. 8 weeks as Europe deals with U.S. tariffs, slowing development, the. collapse of Germany's federal government and pressures in France's. federal government over its 2025 budget plan. There doesn't appear to be anything on the plus side of the. euro ledger just at the moment, said National Australia Bank's. head of FX research, Ray Attrill. At $1.0469 the typical currency is close to breaking support. at last year's low of $1.0448. European stocks are also. headed for a 5th weekly drop in a row, while world stocks. are up 1% today. The dollar index considered a weekly gain of 0.4% and. traded at 107.05. S&P 500 futures were flat. Benchmark. 10-year Treasury yields held at 4.432%, more or less. stable on the week. Markets suggest about a 58% possibility of a Fed cut, down from 83%. a week earlier. Information in Japan showed core inflation held above the main. bank's 2% target in October, keeping pressure for a rate increase. Markets are pricing about a 57% opportunity of a 25 basis point Bank. of Japan rate hike in December and the possibility has actually injected. some volatility and even support for the yen. The yen, down 4% this quarter, was trading firmer at 154.38. per dollar in early morning trade. Together with speculation about (finance ministry). intervention, I think selling on upticks on dollar/yen is quite. decent, said Keita Matsumoto, head of financial institution. sales and options at Citigroup Global Markets Japan in Tokyo. Our investor customers and business customers are rather. sellers of dollar/yen near 155.
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Oil increases as intensifying Ukraine war increases supply risk
Oil rates increased on Friday after Russia said it had fired a ballistic missile at Ukraine and alerted of a widening dispute, raising the possibility of tightening up unrefined materials. Brent unrefined futures gained 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $ 74.37 a barrel by 0007 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.27 per barrel. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the Ukraine war was growing into a worldwide dispute after the U.S. and Britain allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with their weapons. Putin, who said Russia responded to using U.S. and British rockets by firing a new type of hypersonic medium-range ballistic rocket at a Ukrainian military center, alerted the West that Moscow might retaliate further. After approval from the administration of President Joe Biden, Ukraine struck Russia with six U.S.-made ATACMS on Nov. 19 and with British Storm Shadow rockets and U.S.-made HIMARS on Nov. 21, Putin said. Russia is among the world's top crude oil producing nations, even with output declines following import bans tied to its invasion of Ukraine and supply curbs by manufacturer group OPEC+. Russia this month stated it produced about 9 million barrels of oil a day. Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, consisting of in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike 4 Russian refineries. Swelling U.S. crude and fuel stocks minimal cost gains, with government data released this week revealing crude increased by 545,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 15 to 430.3 million barrels and fuel inventories by 2.1 million barrels to 208.9 million barrels. Some analysts anticipate another dive in oil inventories in next week's information. We will be anticipating a rebound in production in addition to US refinery activity next week that will bring negative ramifications for both unrefined and key items, stated Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Florida. The world's leading crude importer, China, meanwhile on Thursday revealed policy procedures to improve trade, including assistance for energy product imports, in the middle of concerns over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's dangers to impose tariffs.
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Petrobras authorizes $3.4 billion in extra dividends, $111 billion strategic plan
Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras authorized on Thursday a payout of 20 billion reais ($ 3.4 billion) in remarkable dividends to shareholders, and it decreased the minimum cash level required for its $111 billion tactical plan. Petrobras stated in a securities filing that around 15.6 billion reais of the payment would come out of a capital reserve that held cash financiers had anticipated would be doled out months ago, as extraordinary dividends for the 2023 duration. The dispensation of the 2023 funds settles a matter that rocked Petrobras previously this year, when its shares sank a day after its board in March voted to withhold additional dividends expected for 2023, a choice many viewed as political interference from Brazil's federal government. In a separate securities filing, Petrobras said its board approved on Thursday a $111 billion investment prepare for 2025-2029, in line with what company management had proposed, however with a minimum money level of $6 billion, down from $8. billion in the previous 2024-2028 strategy. In October, Chief Financial Officer Fernando Melgarejo. had actually said Petrobras was thinking about a modification in its minimum cash level and would disperse excess money. to investors. The staying 4.4 billion reais announced on Thursday are. dividends from revenues accumulated this year as much as September,. the business included. The overall payment represents 1.55 real ($ 0.27). per share, according to Petrobras. TACTICAL PLAN Petrobras said in its brand-new tactical plan that its. robust complimentary cash flow supports a normal dividend projection. of $45 billion-$ 55 billion for the next 5 years, and said. there is space for approximately $10 billion in additional dividends for the. duration. Of the $111 billion in investments approved for the. five-year period, $77 billion would be disbursed by Petrobras. for expedition and production activities, topping the $73. billion allocated for the segment in the previous plan. It also outlines about $20 billion for the Refining,. Transportation, Marketing, Petrochemicals and Fertilizers. segment, while projecting production of about 3.2 million. barrels each day of oil equivalent in the duration. Low-carbon initiatives acquired an increase in the brand-new plan,. with $16.3 billion flagged, about 42% more than under the. previous plan, Petrobras said.
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Trump 2.0 will not reverse Biden's critical minerals push: Andy Home
Donald Trump has explained the Inflation Decrease Act (IRA) as a green rip-off and pledged to repeal it after he returns to the White Home in January. This is bad news for sectors such as electrical automobiles (EV). and wind power, which have been major recipients of the Biden. administration's signature $369 billion energy transition. legislation. But a few of the brand-new green offer money has likewise been channeled. to the U.S. industrial base, such as the $75 million allocated. for an upgrade of Constellium's aluminium rolling mill. in West Virginia. Will this too be clawed back? It seems not likely because when. it pertains to restoring U.S. commercial capacity and cutting the. nation's vital minerals reliance on China, there is. exceptional cross-party consensus. Indeed, it was then-President Trump who in 2020 declared the. country's unnecessary reliance on foreign foes for vital. minerals a nationwide emergency. Trump in his 2nd presidency is not likely to reverse the. drive to metallic self-sufficiency. He may even prove to be an. accelerator. PURCHASING AMERICA Both the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Department of. Defense (DOD) have actually pumped billions of dollars into restoring. U.S. metals capability. The DOE has largely channeled funds to EV battery inputs. such as lithium, manganese and graphite. The DOD has actually sprinkled the money far more widely, targeting a. spectrum of mystical components varying from antimony to. zirconium, consisting of an unknown vital product. incongruously described as vital both for the defense of. human lives and ammo product packaging. The Biden administration boasts that thanks to government. largesse business have revealed $120 billion in investment in. domestic battery and critical minerals capability. Yet the majority of that financial investment has been concentrated on the. downstream part of the supply chain. Seventeen new U.S. battery plants have been announced since. the individual retirement account entered impact in July 2022, increasing pipeline. capability by 68% through 2030, according to research house. Criteria Mineral Intelligence. When it comes to purchasing the metals required to provide. those gigafactories, the majority of the projects receiving federal. funds are those aiming to enhance existing recycling capability. New primary smelting projects stay noticeable by their. lack. Century Aluminum has been awarded a potential. $ 500 million to build a new aluminium smelter however there has been. no update given that the original statement in March. Even the DOD's high-priority unusual earths processing venture. with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths has actually encountered. trouble. Earthworks at the Seadrift website in Texas have actually been put. on hold due to problems getting a wastewater license, Lynas said. in its newest quarterly report. STUCK IN THE GROUND New smelting capacity needs new mines to provide it and. that's where the U.S. minerals investment boom is still. having a hard time to construct momentum. The majority of the funds committed to the mining sector have actually been. directed at lithium, both for new mines such as Lithium. Americas' Thacker Pass and numerous tasks. experimenting with direct extraction technology. South32's Hermosa zinc-manganese project in Arizona is. a non-lithium stand-out, receiving both DOD and DOE funds. and the very first mine to receive the Fast-41 accelerated. allowing procedure. Many others, nevertheless, stay bogged down in the nation's tortuous. permitting procedure. The Biden administration has actually struggled to reconcile its. desire to produce the metals required for the green energy. transition with its ecological qualifications. Big copper projects such as the Pebble mine in Alaska and. the Twin Metals task in Minnesota have been exterminated. Trump has already guaranteed to reverse Biden's 20-year restriction on. mining in the Superior National Park in Minnesota in about 10. to 15 minutes of taking office. That in itself won't be a thumbs-up for the Twin Metals. job, which would still need to get state allowing. sign-off, however it's an indication that the Trump administration will not be. hobbled by the green-on-green cabinet conflict that. characterised the last four years. CONCENTRATE ON CHINA A new Trump administration is also likely to take a much. tougher line on crucial metal imports from entities connected to. China. Talon Metals has actually been allocated funds by both the. DOD and DOE to advance its Tamarack nickel project in Minnesota. and explore for more resource in the state. It's a difficult time to be in the nickel business, however, as a. mining boom in Indonesia has crushed prices and required many. existing operators out of service. Most of Indonesia's nickel capacity is managed either. straight or indirectly by Chinese entities, which has not. stopped U.S. carmakers such as Ford from signing up with the. Indonesian nickel rush. Price has actually surpassed politics when it pertains to protecting a key. metal for EV batteries. Depending upon the structure of the joint endeavor between. Ford, Vale and China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, the nickel from. the brand-new plant in Indonesia might even count as IRA-compliant and. receive federal EV subsidies. Such sourcing ambiguity seems unlikely to make it through the Make. America Great Again focus of a new Republican administration. Undoubtedly, every indication so far is that Trump 2.0 will double down. on the U.S. minerals self-sufficiency drive, even if it suggests. accepting that not all of the IRA funds are a green fraud. The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .
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Couche-Tard chairman states no hostile takeover quote for Seven & i, Nikkei reports
Alimentation CoucheTard is ruling out a hostile takeover quote for Japan's. 7 & & i, the Nikkei company daily quoted the. Canadian suitor's chairman and cofounder, Alain Bouchard, as. stating. In an interview with Japanese media carried out in Canada on. Thursday, Bouchard stated a hostile bid was not amongst aspects. being thought about, indicating the company's objective to secure. a friendly acquisition deal, the Nikkei reported. Couche-Tard, which competes with Seven & & i in the North. American filling station market, in August made an initial quote to. take control of the Japanese retail giant. It later on raised its deal. to $47 billion, in what would be the largest-ever foreign. takeover of a Japanese company. 7 & & i, which operates more than 80,000 7-Eleven. convenience stores worldwide, is caught in a three-way. tug-of-war in between Couche-Tard, Seven & & i's starting household,. which is proposing a management buyout, and business management. who say their development strategy can improve worth. Asked whether Couche-Tard could raise its bidding price. even more, CEO Alex Miller, who also participated in the interview, said:. The current proposed cost is appealing for all stakeholders..
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Northvolt goes from Europe battery promise to crisis
Sweden's Northvolt said on Thursday it will look for U.S. Chapter 11 insolvency security as the cashstrapped battery start-up seeks to figure out its finances. The company went in a matter of months this year from being Europe's finest contended a home-grown electric-vehicle battery champion to racing to survive, hobbled by production problems and as moneying ran out. Northvolt, whose motto is make oil history, has actually received more than $10 billion in equity, debt and public financing, and counts Volkswagen, with a 21% stake, and Goldman Sachs, with a. 19% holding, as its most significant owners. Here is a timeline of major occasions. 2016-2018. Company established in 2016 as SGF Energy by 2 former Tesla. executives and endeavor company Vargas Holding. It becomes Northvolt in 2017, getting equity financing of $12. million that year and an additional $120 million in 2018. The group in 2017 announces prepares to construct $4 billion. lithium-ion battery gigafactory Northvolt Ett and research. facility Northvolt Labs. It partners with BMW and truck maker. Scania. It says in October 2018 it is establishing a battery systems. factory in Poland. 2019. Volkswagen, BMW and Goldman Sachs are amongst financiers in a $1. billion equity capital raise. Volkswagen takes a stake of about. 20%, becoming the biggest owner, with battery production for the. automaker prepared for late 2023 or early 2024. 2020. Northvolt raises $600 million in equity and $1.6 billion in. debt. BMW indications a 2 billion euro ($ 2.16 billion) contract for. battery cells to be produced from 2024. 2021. Volkswagen puts a 10-year, $14 billion battery cell order with. the company, Northvolt states in March. In the same month it announces the acquisition of. California-based lithium-metal battery start-up Cuberg. Later on that year the group raises $2.75 billion in equity to. fund an expansion of Northvolt Ett, aiming for the plant to. have yearly capability of 60 gigawatt hours, enough for some one. million cars. It likewise establishes the Novo joint venture with Volvo Cars, with. prepare for a 50 GWh factory, and in December announces that it. has actually formed the Aurora lithium joint venture with Portugal's. Galp. The company says in December it has actually put together the very first. lithium-ion battery cell at Northvolt Ett. 2022. Sweden is developing into a battery-making superpower, the. then-industry minister informs news company TT. Northvolt reveals in February prepare for gigafactory Northvolt. Fem in Sweden. This is very first meant to be a battery cell factory,. then an active cathode product plant. It is cancelled in 2024. The group also in 2022 provides the very first battery cells to. clients. It says in July it has raised $1.7 billion in convertible financial obligation. for factory rollouts. 2023. Sources tell Reuters in February that Northvolt prepares to work with. banks for a going public that might take place. within 12 months and value the business at more than $20 billion. The IPO is later delayed. The group says in August it has raised $1.9 billion in. convertible financial obligation to fund expansion in Europe, North America. Northvolt announces plans in September for the $5 billion. Northvolt Six battery plant in the Montreal area of Quebec,. Canada. It touts a $50 billion order book and practically 6,000 staff members. 2024. January - Northvolt inks a $5 billion loan plan to pay for. the second stage of Northvolt Ett, a tripling of capacity. Sweden concerns credit assurances for $1.5 billion of the bundle,. however the money is not paid as construction is stopped. March - In the existence of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz,. Northvolt starts construction of Northvolt Drei in Germany, with. prepared annual production capacity of 60 GWh. The plant wins 900. million euro in subsidies. June - BMW cancels a 2 billion euro battery order signed in. 2020. Sources tell Reuters the factor is that Northvolt can not. provide on time. July - Northvolt introduces a tactical review of its organization,. with the CEO saying the company used up too strongly. August - The group shuts Cuberg in California, concentrating R&D. in Sweden. Sept. 9 - Northvolt says it will focus on battery cell. production. It stops cathode active material production,. effectively shelving plans to end up being end-to-end self-dependent. in the battery-making worth chain. The group says planned battery plants in Canada and Germany may. be delayed. Sept. 16 - Sweden's prime minister says the government will not. take a stake in Northvolt. Sept. 23 - The company reveals layoffs of 1,600 workers in. Sweden and cancels the Northvolt Ett growth, including it will. focus on raising production at the existing plant. Sept. 24 - Northvolt says Northvolt Ett produced a record 60,000. battery cells in one week, a small portion of the plant's. capacity, according to analysts, as production issues continue. Oct. 8 - The Northvolt subsidiary in charge of expanding the. plant in Sweden declare personal bankruptcy with billions of crowns in. unpaid debt. Oct. 9 - The head of Northvolt Ett steps down after 15 months in. the job. Oct. 10 - The company seeks to offer its stockpile of surplus. battery-making materials, sources inform Reuters. Oct. 11 - The group remains in talks with financiers and lending institutions to. safe about 200 million euros in financing, sources tell Reuters,. far less than the $1.4 billion that Swedish media reported. earlier in the year that Northvolt hoped to raise. Oct. 21 - Northvolt says it is making substantial development on. financing. A source tells Reuters the company aims to raise more. than $300 million, which might offer it funds until next year. Oct. 31 - Volvo Cars states it is looking for to take complete control over Swedish battery-making joint endeavor NOVO, as. Northvolt is no longer contributing funds. Nov. 11 - Northvolt says the head of investments at. Volkswagen is leaving the group's board . Nov. 15 - Northvolt has actually thought about seeking U.S. Chapter 11 personal bankruptcy security as one of. a number of possible survival choices, 2 sources acquainted with. the matter informed Reuters. Nov. 18 - Northvolt has missed out on some in-house production targets and has actually cut. production at its plant in northern Sweden, according to. internal company files examined and business. sources.
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Mexico's proposed greater mining royalties might block $7 bln in financial investments, chamber states
A proposed increase in mining royalties in Mexico could block more than $6.9 billion in investments over the next two years, the market's local chamber said on Thursday. As part of its budget proposal published last week, the Mexican government proposed raising mining royalties under the argument that metal rates have actually risen in the last few years. The government prepares to bump up two separate royalties from 7.5% to 8.5% and 0.5% to 1.0%, respectively. The measure ... would have an effect on a sector that has currently seen its contributions and financial investments reduced due to paralyzation (of the sector), the chamber stated in a. declaration reacting to concerns sent . The proposed walking follows Congress last year. shortened concessions from 50 years to 30 years and tightened up. water-extraction authorizations. Another reform focused on banning. open-pit mining remains in the legislature. The royalty boost, paired with the lack of licenses. and expedition constraints over the last few years, might inhibit more. than $6.9 billion that the mining sector might purchase new. tasks in the next two years, the chamber told Reuters. Mexico is the world's leading silver producer and a top. producer of copper and gold. The market contributes around. 2.5% to the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). But an extra tax burden might make Mexico less. appealing compared to other significant manufacturers such as Chile, Peru. and Canada, the chamber said. The group represents a few of the nation's biggest. miners, such as Grupo Mexico, Minera Autlan. , Industrias Penoles and Newmont's. Penasquito mine.
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Los Alamos National Laboratory chief engineer signs up with nuclear blend start-up Fuse
The chief engineer for nuclear weapons at the Los Alamos National Laboratory is joining nuclear fusion startup Fuse, the business said Thursday. James Owen spent over 28 years at Los Alamos National Laboratory, concentrated on weapons engineering. The New Mexico-based laboratory, set up in 1943 as the top-secret facility for the Manhattan Project to establish the atomic bomb, keeps the nation's largest nuclear weapons arsenal, and supervises the security and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. At San Francisco Bay Area-based Fuse, Owen will be leading the business's efforts to sell to U.S. governmental agencies, in locations including radiation services, a critical component of nuclear combination energy. Fuse is one of a variety of start-ups, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman-backed Helion, that is racing to advertise nuclear blend innovation as a source of clean energy, however some professionals have stated its industrial viability is still decades away. If I believed it was well beyond my career horizon, I 'd. be less interested in attempting to resolve this issue, Owen told. Reuters. Some argue it's within a decade, others argue it's. beyond that, however recent improvements offer me hope. Combination, which fuels the sun and stars, remains in the. experimental stage in the world, however might one day generate enormous. amounts of energy that gives off practically no greenhouse gas and. without creating large quantities of lasting radioactive. waste. Fusion is of particular significance to the synthetic. intelligence market, which has actually been hamstrung by not having. enough power to fuel the ever-growing computing clusters it. requirements to train smarter AI systems. Altman has said that an. energy breakthrough such as nuclear blend is essential to the. future of expert system.
Brazil mills enhance sugar capacity, 'leave' ethanol to corn processors
Brazil walking cane mills will improve their sugar production capability as much as 10% in the brand-new season from April to make the most of reasonably high sugar costs and as increasing supplies of corn make the grain a cheap feedstock for ethanol output.
Brazil is the world's biggest sugar producer. It accounted for almost 50% of global sugar trade last year as undesirable weather due to the El Nino environment pattern decreased output and exports from rivals India and Thailand.
Sugar rates have actually dipped from a 12-year peak hit in November, however are still traditionally high. Brazilian mills are hurrying to finish growths or new plants to enhance their sugar production capability, analysts stated.
Every mill that can do it (boost sugar capacity), is doing it, said Julio Maria Borges, a director and partner at task Economia e Planejamento, an advisory firm.
The distinction on monetary returns between sugar and ethanol is just too huge.
Sugar prices are presently 60% higher than Brazilian ethanol costs, broker and supply chain providers Czarnikow stated in a report today. It is the best rate space in 15 years.
Amongst a few of the biggest sugar investments are Jalles Machado's 170 million reais ($ 34.19 million) plant in Minas Gerais state, Cerradinho Bionergia's 289 million reais factory in Mato Grosso do Sul and Coruripe's 200 million reais brand-new sugar assembly line also in Minas Gerais.
France's Tereos, which has 7 plants in Brazil, plans to assign 70% of its sugarcane for sugar production, and 30% to ethanol. That is an increase from the currently high level of 67% last season.
Numerous other mills are making smaller sized adjustments, enhancing sugar installations. Cane allowance towards sugar production - and away from ethanol production - across Brazil in 2015 was the biggest in 12 years at 49%. The majority of analysts anticipate it to be a. record in the new season.
CLIMATE HIT
In spite of the increase in sugar production capability, Brazil is. unlikely to produce more of the sweetener in the brand-new season than. it carried out in 2023/24.
We had (in 23/24) a climate that resembled lab, just. perfect, Borges said.
It rained well at the right time, and then was dry for. harvest. We are not seeing this now.
Cumulative rains in the main sugar location of Ribeirao Preto. in Brazil this year, for instance, is 50% below regular, according. to GFS climate modeling.
Tereos expects Brazil's Centre-South (CS) sugarcane. production to fall below 600 million heaps in 2024/25 from 660. million tons in 2023/24.
Broker StoneX still projects a record sugar production in. the new season at 43 million heaps, saying the increase in walking cane. allowance to sugar production, at the expense of ethanol, will. offset a smaller sugarcane volume.
CORN ETHANOL
StoneX approximates that production of ethanol from sugarcane. will fall by almost 3 billion liters in 2024/25, or 10.4%, to. 24.5 billion liters. It stated output of corn-based ethanol, on. the other side, will grow 16% to 7.2 billion liters.
There is a change in the market, said StoneX sugar and. ethanol analyst Filipi Cardoso. Corn-ethanol is more. cost-efficient, so walking stick mills are going for sugar.
Corn production has broadened quickly throughout Brazil, which. ended up being the world's leading corn exporter last year. That has likewise. motivated the growth of corn-based ethanol production. Generally, ethanol in Brazil has actually been made from sugar walking stick. instead of ethanol.
Brazilian corn ethanol production was less than 1 billion. liters five years earlier and this crop it could reach 5 billion. liters, and 10 billion in the next 5-6 years, stated Citi. analysts.
Brazil is among the world's largest customers of ethanol as. a transport fuel. The biofuel represented 46% of light lorry. fuel use in Brazil in 2023, or 28.5 billion liters.
The quick growth of corn ethanol production, however, has. capped prices for the biofuel in Brazil, another factor that has. urged sugar mills to concentrate on sugar.
(source: Reuters)