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IMF reduces global growth forecast for 2026 to 3%; sees rebound in 2020
The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global growth in 2026 to a slow 3.0% on Wednesday, warning about the ongoing risks associated with the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections to market expectations in AI. The 'global lender' said that the world economy avoided a sharper decline, as demand for AI and technology helped to offset the sharp fall in energy supplies due to the war. The growth rate should return to 3,4% by 2027. However, this is still lower than the 3.5% average seen between 2024 and 2025. The IMF forecasted 3.1% growth in April. The inflation outlook is less optimistic. IMF forecasts that headline inflation in 2026 will rise by 0.3 percentage point to 4.7%, up from April. It also said that it would drop to 3.9% the following year. The IMF said that energy prices are 25% higher than they were before the February 28 war started and will remain so. It was confirmed on June 10 that the Strait of Hormuz would begin to reopen by mid-July and traffic will gradually return to prewar levels by March 2027. It assumes that the average oil price is $89 per barrel. Petya Brooks, deputy head of the IMF research department, said to reporters that they expect a V shape recovery. This year's growth will be weaker than our pre-war projection, but it will rebound next year. The world economy has fared better than expected, and there are few signs of a second-round effect. IMF has raised their forecast for energy exporters, and countries closely linked to the technology sector. However, commodity importers who are not in a position to benefit from AI development have seen their growth predictions downgraded. The projected growth in global trade is expected to drop sharply from 5% to 3.5% by 2026, following a year of heavy front-loading in anticipation of U.S. Tariffs. It will then rebound to 4.3% by 2027. Brooks stated that the spike in oil prices was limited during the war by the release and expansion of commercial and strategic oil inventories. He also cited the rise in energy efficiency, the increase in production outside the Gulf and the steady increase in renewable energy. Private sector also quickly adapted, finding "alternatives" to supply and routes. She said that there was still a great deal of uncertainty. "A new escalation of the conflict could reignite volatility in commodity prices, tighten financial circumstances, strain policy buffers and worsen food security in low-income nations." Another downside risk is a market correction in AI. She said that higher oil prices may also lead to a destabilization of inflation expectations. This would then trigger a correction in the financial situation. The U.S. Military launched a new round of attacks against Iran. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that a memorandum with Iran to end conflict had "ended", raising new concerns about the future a fragile ceasefire. Deniz Igan who heads the IMF’s economic updates said that a renewed conflict in the area would put the global economy into a worse situation than the first time. Igan said that many countries had exhausted their oil reserves and were left with little room for maneuver. Prices could rise if countries make a big push to replenish their reserves. The IMF officials noted that inflation and expectations of inflation had remained relatively well-anchored except in some cases. There was also little evidence to date that expectations would shift in the medium term. SCENARIOS?CHANGE In its updated World Economic Outlook, the IMF dropped the three scenarios that it released in April before the U.S. reached a ceasefire agreement with Iran, and reverted to a traditional baseline 'forecast. The reference?forecast from April assumed a shorter conflict. The IMF raised its forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percent points to 2.2%, compared with the April forecast. The eurozone's growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 0.9%, from the 1.1% forecast in April. Its 2027 forecast remained unchanged at 1.2%. The growth forecast in Japan for 2026 was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%. In 2027, the forecast was raised by the equivalent amount to 0.7%. South Korea's growth rate was revised up by 0.7 percentage points to 2.6% due to strong growth in AI Hardware exports. The growth forecast for emerging market and developing countries was also cut by 0.1 points, to 3.8%. However, the forecast for 2027 has been raised by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%. China's growth is now expected to reach 4,6% in 2026, after a strong quarter. This is up from April's?forecast, which was 4.4%. In 2027, growth will reach 4,1%, up 0.3 points from April. India, which is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, was also downgraded to 6.4% from 6.5% for 2026, while the IMF raised its forecast for 2027 to 6.7%, up from 6.5%. The IMF raised its forecast for 2027 by 1.9 percentage point to 6.5%. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, David Gregorio, and Andrea Shalal)
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How Iran's disputed nuclear program became more important than its 'golden weapons' in Hormuz
The wording of the interim deal fuels differing interpretations between Iran and the U.S. about who manages transit * Tehran used to view the closing of waterways as a final resort * Iran will not start nuclear negotiations until Washington accepts Washington's authority over the Strait By Parisa Hafezi & Angus McDowall DUBAI, 8 July - The Strait of Hormuz is now a "golden" weapon for Iran. It is willing to risk escalating tensions with the United States for this goal, which is more important than its nuclear program for which the country has accepted sanctions for decades. The issue of Iranian strategy is so important that this week ships that passed the 'Strait' without Tehran's permission were fired on, leading to a 'fire exchange' with the United States which threatens the interim peace agreement last month. The Iranian leadership, which had resisted for years to choke off the fifth global energy supply passing through Hormuz now sees it as their strongest hand in a number of disputes with the West and the reason Washington concluded the war. Ebrahim Azizi wrote on social media that the United States should recognize the new Iranian order at the Strait of Hormuz. This is the only path forward. Two senior Iranian sources said that while Tehran's insistence on maintaining control of the waterway could lead to a long-term dispute, there was little disagreement about the policy. One source said that there had been some discussion about whether Iran was overplaying its hands, but the general opinion in the top circles was no rational country would give up such a powerful leverage point. The source said that they wanted to remove Iran's "golden weapon" - the issue of Hormuz - and this would be impossible. The interim agreement signed by President Donald Trump last month to end the conflict opened up the strait for more traffic, but it was left vague on its ultimate fate. While President Donald Trump opened up the Strait of Hormuz to more traffic last month, the final fate of the waterway was not specified in the interim agreement. In the memorandum, Iran promises to "make arrangements for safe passage for commercial vessels without charge for 60 days". Iranian negotiators read?that as the U.S. recognizing the Islamic Republic’s right to control the waterway for two months, even if it means not charging tolls or fees. The United States and Gulf States reject this interpretation. They believe that the language means that Iran must facilitate safe passage of vessels, not impose any restrictions or enforce them with force. HORMUZ IS PRIORITIZED OVER NUCLEAR ISSUES Iran's position is based on a distrust for the United States, exacerbated by Trump's decision in 2018 to rip up a nuclear agreement, his return to the war this year, after agreeing a ceasefire during the summer, and his unannounced war launch while a diplomatic process was underway. One of the sources stated that if Iran backs down on Hormuz he would intensify his demands for other areas, including the nuclear dossier and Iran's conventional missile stock, stating such a move was "surrender and this is impossible". Iran has warned that it can close the Strait for years, and once said that it would be as easy as drinking water. However, senior officials have also privately stated that they are reluctant to do this as it is a last resort. They were hesitant because they feared increasing their isolation internationally by making a decision that would anger Gulf neighbours as well as global energy consumers and, ultimately, hurt their own economy. Iranian officials thought they had nothing to lose when Israel and the United States?attacked Iran's supreme leadership and other top officials on February 28. The Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic except their own. This caused the largest disruption in?global energy supply history. Washington, after hesitating about the effect on oil prices added its own blocking of Iranian ports in late April. The cost of the blockade on Hormuz eventually became so high that the two sides reached an agreement. Iran believes that after forcing the U.S. into a negotiating position by closing the Strait, it now needs to formalise this ability. Both sides were anxious about the immediate economic issues they faced. Both sides believe they have won. There's a view that both sides just need to push further to get their desired outcome, said Ali Ansari - a professor of modern history at St Andrews University. Iran has now shifted its focus to the Hormuz issue, and believes Washington has accepted its right to enrich uranium at home. Trump's war was primarily motivated by the nuclear issue, which had been the main source of disagreement between Iran and the United States over the past 25 years. It also prompted major international sanctions against Iran. The negotiations over Iran's nuclear program were reduced to further discussions as part of the interim agreement that ended the war. Senior Iranian sources said that Iran would not even start talks about the nuclear issue unless the United States accepted its full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Reporting by Parisa hafezi and Angus McDowall, Editing by Peter Graff
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Gold prices fall after Trump declares Iran deal 'over
Gold prices dropped on Wednesday, as oil prices soared and inflation fears intensified after U.S. president Donald Trump declared that the?interim deal aimed at ending conflict with Iran is "over". Gold spot dropped by 2%, to $4.025.67 an ounce at 11:35 am EDT (1535 GMT), after reaching its lowest price since July 1. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 2.9% to $4.035.20 an ounce. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that the main reason for the move today was the "increased escalation" in tensions between Iran and the U.S. With a possible ceasefire ending, risk assets have traded lower across the board, including gold. Iran has retaliated against U.S. military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait in a 'flame-up of hostilities' after U.S. forces attacked Iranian targets in response to attacks on oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices rose by more than 5%. Inflation can be fueled by higher?energy costs, and central banks may raise interest rates in order to control price pressures. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but the metal's non-yielding nature makes it less attractive in an environment with high interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes for its June 16-17 meeting are due at 2:00 pm EDT (1800 GMT) to provide further hints on the monetary policy. Meger stated that the market is searching for information to help clarify the path of future rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 70% probability of an increase in U.S. interest rates in September. This is up from 62% Tuesday. In a note published on Tuesday, Bank of America said that its 2026 gold forecasts have been reduced by 14%, to $4360, based on a more hawkish Fed. However, it added that $5,000 is still within reach once the tightening cycles ends. Silver spot fell by 4.5%, to $57.33 an ounce. Platinum dropped 4.4%, to $1.568.93. Palladium was down 4.9%, to $1.213.93.
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Denmark is ready to defend "every inch" of NATO, including the Danish Kingdom, says PM
Mette Frederiksen, Danish Prime Minister, said that Denmark was'ready to defend all of NATO, including the Kingdom of Denmark. This came a day after Donald Trump, U.S. president, reiterated the U.S. position that Greenland belonged under U.S. control. Greenland's prime minister Jens-Frederik Nielson also rejected Trump remarks on Wednesday. Trump's statements that the U.S. should control or acquire Greenland - a semiautonomous Danish territory - have caused tensions between Washington and Copenhagen - both founding members in NATO – and more broadly, U.S. relations with Europe. Negotiations are underway. Frederiksen reiterated that Greenland is not for sale, and said "we are prepared to defend every inch of NATO, including our territory." She said: "One of many reasons we built NATO years ago was that if something happened to one of us, everyone should stand up for the other." Greenland's Nielsen responded to Trump's latest claim on Facebook, writing: "Repeated requests for the control or takeover of our country will not change that." Greenland is not for sale, he said. Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Danish Foreign Minister, told journalists in Ankara separately that Denmark is still engaged in diplomatic negotiations with Greenland as well as the U.S. The result of these talks is yet to be announced. Rasmussen stated that "we have an agreement with the U.S. Administration that we will try to find a solution within the frameworks of the Kingdom's red lines that addresses also the U.S. 'legitimate security interests." "Because these interests?exist and we share them and we are responding to them,"? he said. Rasmussen stated that he was "firmly" convinced that it is possible to achieve a deal which would satisfy Greenland and Denmark, as well as the United States, by expanding a 1951 U.S. - Danish defence?agreement, that allows Washington wide military access?to Arctic island. Nielsen stated in May that the talks included increasing the U.S. presence in the Arctic. Reporting by Louise Rasmussen, Essi Lehto and Hugh Lawson; editing by Jacqueline Wong Philippa Fletcher
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India expects 300 GW of power demand in the next year and supports local clean-energy manufacturing
Manohar Lal, India's Power Minister, said late on Wednesday that India must 'prepare to meet peak demand for electricity of approximately?300 gigawatts in the coming year. He also urged faster development of 'clean energy - supply chains at home. Lal, who spoke at the India Energy Storage Week, said that India had already reached a peak demand record of 271 gigawatts. The demand could reach 276-280 GW in this year and then climb to 300 GW by next year. He said that demand would continue to rise every year as data centres expand, AI adoption grows and EV use increases. Preparations will be required for a demand of around 300 GW in 2019. Minister said that the increase in electricity demand will require more?investment into energy storage and grid infrastructure, as India continues to?expand renewable energy capacity. He also called for a faster use of equipment produced locally in clean energy projects. India, he said, should reduce its import dependency even if the initial costs were higher. India imports many components for solar energy storage and other projects. This includes batteries and cells. Lal stated that "nothing is bigger than the nation" citing the necessity to conserve foreign currency and improve energy security in the face of?geopolitical uncertainties. Lal's remarks come at a time when India is seeking to increase?domestic production across?renewable-energy and energy storage supply chains while reducing its reliance on foreign suppliers. Minister also linked the "push for independence" to increasing geopolitical insecurity, citing recent tensions in West Asia as well as volatility on global energy markets. Lal stated that "whether it's power, gas, or petroleum, we have to develop our own capabilities in the country." India has taken a number of measures to expand renewable energy and encourage manufacturing at home. (Reporting and editing by Sethuraman N; Aurora Ellis)
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Wall Street is jittery as Trump declares interim Iran deal "over"
Wednesday, oil prices rose more than 5% and global bond and stock prices fell as investors fled risky assets after U.S. president Donald 'Trump' said that the memorandum signed with Iran for ending the Gulf Conflict was "over". Wall Street opened lower, as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed down sentiment. This was further reinforced by a warning from the International Monetary Fund about the impact of the conflict on global growth for this year. Investors are also closely watching the minutes of the Fed meeting, which will be released later on Wednesday. This is the first Fed meeting under the new chairman Kevin Warsh. They're looking for hints about how he might steer the central banks policy and messaging. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1% during early trading. European shares fell 1%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.71%. Trump said that he didn't want to have talks with Tehran. He was in Ankara, Turkey, for a NATO summit. He said, "As for me, dealing with them is a waste." OIL PRICES CLIMB After the U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged attacks in Gulf, market sentiment was already fragile. Brent crude futures jumped 5.65% to $78.42 per barrel, the highest in a single day since late may. U.S. crude climbed 5.28% to $74.21 per barrel. Although this was far below the peak of $120 at the heights of the conflict, the inflation risk was still enough to cause a new wave of volatility in the bond markets, especially since the months of conflict had reduced global oil inventories. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has seen its crude oil stocks fall to their lowest levels since 1983. This leaves the markets more susceptible to future supply shocks. Chris?Beauchamp is the chief market strategist for IG. He said: "It really weighs on sentiment." The benchmark yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose for the seventh consecutive day, reaching a new one-month record of?4.58%. The VIX volatility indicator was up by 8.8% but it was still lower than the March highs. Investors have been questioning the value of top performing semiconductor and AI stocks in recent weeks. Shares of Samsung Electronics fell for the second session in a row on Wednesday, even though the company reported a 19-fold increase in profits. Analysts and investors worry that the demand for memory chips'may slow down in the second half of this year. The dollar index on currency markets, which measures the greenback against currencies such as the yen, the euro and others, dropped 0.07%, to 101.1. The yen was hovering around 162.5, which is not far off from its 40-year lows. Reporting from Amanda Cooper in London, and Pete Schroeder Washington. Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook Singapore. Editing by Kevin Buckland and Jan Harvey. Hugh Lawson.
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Gold prices fall after Trump declares Iran deal 'over
Gold prices dropped on Wednesday, as oil prices surged and inflation fears intensified after U.S. president Donald Trump declared that the conflict with Iran is "over." Gold spot dropped 0.8%, to $4.072.69 an ounce at 09:11 am EDT (1310 GMT), after reaching its lowest level in the previous session since July 2. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1.8% to $4.083.20 an ounce. David Meger is the director of metals and futures at High Ridge Futures. Iran has escalated hostilities after U.S. forces attacked Iranian targets as a response to attacks against tankers in Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices increased by more than 5%. Inflation can be fueled by higher energy prices, and this could lead to higher interest rates in order to control the price pressures. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but the metal's non-yielding nature makes it less appealing in an environment with high interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes for its June 16-17 meeting are due at 2:00 pm EDT (1800 GMT) to provide further clues about monetary policy. Meger stated that the market is searching for information to help clarify the path of future rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 67% probability of an increase in U.S. interest rates in September. This is up from 62% Tuesday. In a note published on Tuesday, Bank of America said that its 2026 gold forecasts will be reduced by 14% to $4,360 due to a more hawkish Fed. However, it added that $5,000 is still within reach once the tightening cycles ends. Silver spot fell by 2.42%, to $58.5681 an ounce. Platinum dropped 3.6%, to $1.582.13, while palladium declined 4.3%, to $1.221.97.
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Trump on Iran: US likely to strike them again Wednesday night
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran the United States would likely launch additional strikes on Wednesday night, following the attacks of the previous day. "I'll give a little warning. We're going hit them hard tonight," Trump said to reporters before his meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the NATO Summit in Turkey. Trump had said to reporters in Ankara that a memorandum-of-understanding between the United States & Iran, which served as an initial ceasefire agreement, was "over". He did not say that Washington would go back to full-fledged warfare, and it was not clear if the negotiations to turn the ceasefire into an agreement permanent would continue. "I don’t know if there will be a deal." Trump stated that he may not make a deal. Iran claimed that it had?targeted U.S. sites in Bahrain?and Kuwait?after U.S. forces struck Iranian targets as a response to attacks against tankers in the Strait of?Hormuz. In addition to the renewed hostilities, the increased tensions have raised'safety and... security concerns in the Strait of...Hormuz. Shipping data shows that at least four oil and.gas.tankers turned back, rather than try to cross the vital supply route. Reporting by Gram Slattery, Doina Chiacu, and Humeyra Pauk; editing by Michelle Nichols
IMF hopes to engage in discussions on the central banks' change to forward guidance
A top official at the International Monetary Fund said that they hope to engage central banks in coming months about changes in how they use forward guidance for monetary policy. She stressed the importance of communication in these uncertain times. Petya Brooks, deputy research director at the International Monetary Fund, told reporters on Wednesday that while forward guidance was a valuable tool in the past it is understandable that policymakers will revisit the scope and modalities over time. Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chairman who assumed office in May, announced plans to review communication policies and reduce forward guidance for monetary policy. He organized a consensus in his first meeting as the?chair to adopt a simplified policy statement, which removed any references to rate actions that the central bank may take 'in the near future. Warsh reaffirmed his position at the annual forum of the European Central Bank in Sintra (Portugal) last week. He said that it is important for central banks make decisions based on the "real economy." At the same event, Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank, Andrew Bailey of Bank of England and Tiff Macklem of Bank of Canada expressed their reservations regarding forward guidance. Brooks stated that the IMF is taking note but stressed the importance of continued communication, particularly given the volatility and uncertainty in the current economic environment. She said that in a high-uncertainty environment, central bank communication is crucial to give a sense of (how) central banking thinks about shocks, their impact and monetary policy. She said that while forward?guidance was a helpful tool in the past (especially at the zero lower boundary), it is only natural to revisit its scope and modalities as time goes by. We are taking note and hope to discuss this issue in the months ahead. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas was the former IMF chief economist and told reporters before he left last month that central banks should move away from "strong forms" forward guidance, as it has in the past bound them to future actions regardless of economic conditions. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Chizu nomiyama
(source: Reuters)