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Oil drops as US-Iran hopes are renewed. Wall Street reaches new highs
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday and other Wall Street indices also advanced, as prospects for new talks between the United States of America and Iran also dragged down oil prices and U.S. dollars. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks in Pakistan could resume over the next two days after they had broken down over weekend. Pakistani and Iranian officials said that talks could resume, with Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions on the agenda. The S&P 500 ended the day at 6,966.78 after gaining 1.17% according to preliminary data. The S&P 500 closed at 6,966.78 points, a record level compared to its closing level of 6978.60 late in January. The blue-chip index closed Monday's session at a level higher than before the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.66% to 48,535.39 while the Nasdaq Composite grew by 1.95% to 23,635.92. Burns McKinney is the portfolio manager of NFJ Investment Group in Dallas. The STOXX 600 index in Europe has gained 0.99% for the day but is still?below the close of February 27, the morning before Israel and the U.S. launched their strikes against Iran. The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast on Tuesday. BlackRock, the $14 trillion asset manager, reported a first-quarter profit increase that drove its stock higher by more than 3%. This helped it recover some of its losses this year. Citigroup's shares rose by more than 3% after it beat the first-quarter profit estimate. JPMorgan?also beat expectations, but its stock fell 0.8%. Dollar Dips The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies such as the yen, euro and yen) has fallen to within striking range of its February?levels. It fell 0.24% to 98.10 on Tuesday. Since the beginning of hostilities, the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency has pushed the currency up. On Tuesday, it fell as low as 97.978 - its lowest level since the first day of trading after the war started. "You've got very clear direction coming from the Trump Administration that they're searching for an exit here, and that's playing in to market expectations that eventually there will be a symbol deal between the U.S. Data on inflation from the U.S. The Labor Department added to the pressure on the dollar. The Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI), which measures the price of final goods, rose by 0.5% in the last month. This was below the 1,1% rise predicted in an economist poll. OIL BACKS DOWN Prices of oil fell because the expectation that a new dialogue would end the "war" outweighed any concerns about supply disruptions. Brent crude futures settled on $94.79 per barrel, down $4.57 or 4.6%. West Texas Intermediate crude ended at $91.20 a barrel, down $7.80 or 7.87%. Both benchmarks were trading above $100 per barrel only a day before the U.S. started a blockade of Iran’s ports. This angered Tehran and added uncertainty regarding the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In the first week of April, a Bank of America survey of fund managers revealed that investors expected oil prices to reach $84 per barrel by the end of this year. TREASURIES FINE BUT INFLATION? REMAINS CONCERN U.S. Treasuries fined up on the optimism that the war would end soon, but trading remained subdued. The yields have been moving lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has dropped 4.9 basis points and is now at 4.248%. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds, which usually move in tandem with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have risen more than 35 basis point since late February, as rising oil prices are fueling inflation fears. Investors are preparing for the possibility of major central banks reversing their course and shifting towards hikes instead of cuts this year. (Additional reporting from Niket Nishant in Bengaluru, Avinash in Singapore and Rae Wee at the Singapore Embassy; editing by Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)
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Brazilian steelmaker CSN moves ahead with sale of cement units
According to two people with knowledge of the matter, Brazilian steelmaker CSN wants to sell its cement unit for over 10 billion Reais ($2 bn). Talks are underway with local and international players including Brazil's Votorantim, J&F S.A. (which also controls JBS), and Chinese companies Anhui Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement. Huaxin Cement acquired a Brazilian firm in 2024. Sinoma International is also involved. Valor Economico, a Brazilian newspaper, reported on the interest of these Chinese groups earlier that day and was independently confirmed by. CSN, Votorantim and J&F refused to comment. Anhui Conch Huaxin and Sinoma have not responded to requests for comment. According to a source, Votorantim may bid for the 'cement maker alone or with a partner should it decide to pursue acquisition. According to the same source, who requested anonymity due to the nature of the discussions, J&F is discussing a possible?offer for 10 billion reais. CSN has decided to 'divest' certain assets as part of its effort to reduce debt. CSN's Chief Financial Officer Marco Rabello said recently that the company expects to sell its cement unit CSN Cimentos and a stake in its logistics company before the third quarter, raising potentially up to 18 billion reals. Rabello said CSN also 'hired Morgan Stanley for advice?on the sale?of control?of CSN Cimentos, and that Bradesco and Citibank were mandated to provide advice on the process involved with its logistics company. Luciana Magnalhaes, Brad Haynes, and Aurora Ellis edited the report.
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Chilean copper miner Codelco and contractors fined following deadly mine collapse
According to inspection records obtained through public record requests, Codelco, a state-owned copper miner in Chile, was fined by the labor authorities for last year's fatal collapse of its El Teniente Mine. Three contractors, whose employees were killed or injured, were also sanctioned. Six contract workers were killed and others injured in the aftermath of the underground?seismic occurrence that occurred on July 31, triggering a rock explosion at El Teniente - the largest underground copper mine in the world. The files were obtained by requesting open records from the Chilean labor ministry. These fines in Chile are communicated directly to the employers, and they can be contested or reduced administratively. However, they are not usually disclosed publicly. During the accident, the then-Labor minister Giorgio Boccardo stated that his office, along with the mining regulator Sernageomin would investigate whether there had been any violations of labor safety rules. A quake measuring about 4.3 on the Richter scale halted all underground operations in the vast mine complex, despite rescue efforts and safety checks. Codelco incurred a large production cost as a result of the collapse. The company said that the slow restart of El Teniente underground operations and the shutting down of those operations resulted in a reduction of copper production by tens or thousands of tons. This caused a disruption of shipments during a period of limited global supplies. The accident also highlighted the geotechnical hazards facing Chile's old underground mines. Contractors fined more than CODELCO The records reveal that the three contractors received fines totaling about $87,000, while Codelco only paid out $20,000, reflecting Chile's "split liability framework" for subcontracted works. Chile's labor law states that while the principal company, Codelco, can be punished for safety violations, contractors are directly liable as employers, for reporting accidents, risk assessments, worker assignments, and other compliance obligations. Labor inspectors found that Codelco did not have a written procedure showing how seismic warnings are used to determine whether or not work should be stopped. According to a separate record of sanctions, after the accident, regulators found that Codelco had violated labor laws when workers were seen entering or preparing for entry into underground areas, while the mine suspension was still in effect. According to Chilean labor laws, serious or fatal accidents can result in fines of up to 150 UTM (a Chilean tax unit linked to inflation) or approximately $11,000 today. A company was fined 340 UTM, or roughly $26,000 today, after a fatal accident on a construction site in 2007. Workers' safety specialists and labor advocates have questioned if such small penalties are enough to deter major employers. In 2011, after a mining accident, a Chilean House of Representatives investigation commission reported that it was essential to increase the fines to deter mining companies from violating safety regulations. Since then, proposals to increase fines for workplace accidents that are serious or deadly have failed. CODELCO DETAILS CHANGES Codelco said that since the collapse it has tightened safety procedures to restart work at El Teniente. This includes adding safety briefings before shifts begin, improving communication underground, increasing checks on worker's locations, and reviewing protective gear. Later, it was revealed that an independent panel headed by a former Anglo American chief executive officer was investigating what caused the accident. They were also looking at whether management problems or workplace issues played a part. Codelco stated in a statement to that the seismic alert system had been activated on the day of accident and that they have appealed against the fine imposed by the Labor Ministry. The company said that a "legal proceeding is ongoing related to the supervision of worker entry during work stoppage", and it was waiting for a ruling from the authorities. Codelco announced in August that El teniente?mine director Andres Musik would be leaving his position. In February, three senior executives were sacked after an internal audit revealed inconsistencies or concealment in the aftermath of a rock explosion at the mine several years ago. SUBCONTRACTORS WILL GET LARGER FINES Zublin, a Strabag subsidiary, was among the three firms that were fined. This is because Zublin failed to report an injury to a worker within 24 hours. The report stated that it is important to immediately notify the authorities to ensure safety for remaining workers. The Austrian company refused to comment on a request. SalfaCorp, a Chilean construction company, also sanctioned a unit after one of their workers died at the Andesita mine sector. Inspectors found that the company did not immediately notify authorities of the fatal accident, among other violations. SalfaCorp stated in a press release that "internal protocol have been reviewed and strengthened to further strengthen safety standards and compliance in all of its operations." The company said that the sanctions related to the reporting process and labor requirements, and had nothing to do with the cause of the accident. The Chilean labor regulator fined Constructora Gardilcic as well, the unlisted contractor who's workers were killed and injured at the Recursos North area of the mine. Inspectors found that the company failed to report the accident on time, filed injury reports late and had a poor safety plan. The authorities also found that Gardilcic failed to adequately account for the risks of violent rock explosions outside designated danger areas and placed some workers into jobs they weren't cleared to perform. Gardilcic didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. LONG ROAD Ahead Codelco said that the areas most affected by the accident would remain under strict restrictions as criminal, regulatory and technological investigations continue. The company has promised a gradual restart that will be approved by the regulator, but it is unclear when normal operations can resume at the mine. (Reporting and editing by Christian Plumb, Aurora Ellis, and Kylie Madry)
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NAACP files suit against xAI for alleged illegal operation of gas-turbines
The largest U.S. Civil Rights group sued xAI and a subsidiary on Tuesday, claiming that they operated illegally more than?two dozen gas turbines to power Colossus '2 data center in Mississippi, posing a?health risk to local -residents. Earthjustice, the Southern Environmental Law Center and the?NAACP represented by Earthjustice sued xAI, a subsidiary of MZX Tech and alleged that they had violated the federal Clean Air Act, by operating 27 gas-fired generators without obtaining the necessary air permits to power xAI?s?Grok?chatbot. Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI invested more than 20 billion dollars to build a data center in Southaven, with the full support of Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves. However, the facility, along with Colossus 1 located just across the border in Memphis Tennessee, have met with heavy opposition from local communities because of their impact on air and environmental quality. "By trying to evade clean air laws in order to operate dirty turbines which emit pollution and carcinogens known to be harmful, these companies follow a shameful and familiar pattern, asking Black and frontline community to bear the toxic burden of 'innovation'," said Abre Conner, Director of the Center for Environmental and Climate Justice of the?NAACP. The NAACP announced in February that it would sue xAI, MZX and other companies under the Clean Air Act. This Act requires 60-days notice before filing a suit. After only a few days' notice, Mississippi regulators held a public hearing in that month to discuss?permits? for these turbines. They then approved the permits. xAI did not respond to a request for comment immediately. Earthjustice?said xAI's Southaven plant could emit over 1,700 tons of smog causing?nitrogen dioxides (NOx) every year. This is a major smog source in the broader Memphis area. The power plant is also expected to emit up to 180 tons of fine particles, 500 tons carbon monoxide and 19 tons cancer-causing formaldehyde. (Reporting and editing by David Gaffen; Valerie Volcovici)
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IMF cuts growth forecasts for Middle East exporters as Gulf exporters suffer from the impact of war
International Monetary Fund announced on Tuesday that the Middle East and North Africa will 'experience a sharply lower growth rate this year due to the oil exporting countries dealing with the 'fallout' of the Iran War. IMF's World Economic Outlook's forecast for the region's real growth in GDP was cut to just 1.1%, which is 2.8 percentage points below its original January projection. In 2027, growth is projected to return to 4,8%. IMF estimates assume that energy production and transportation will be normalised in the next few months. It noted that the assumption could need to be revised, if the conflict continues. Bo Li, IMF Deputy Managing director said that MENA countries face unprecedented challenges and exceptional uncertainty in their outlook. "Even if production and exports are normalized by the middle of this calendar year, the MENA countries, their economies, their prospects for growth have already been severely impacted." The attacks by Iran on Gulf neighbours in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes that began 'late February' have caused major damage to energy facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, as it would normally be handling a little over 20% of global oil, and liquefied natural gas. Bo said that "for the countries most directly affected by the war, their production will remain below its pre-war trend for the near future and also the medium term." War has also caused inflationary pressures, and has clouded global economic prospects. The U.S. and Iran talks to end the conflict broke down over the weekend. SAUDI ARABIA FARING BETTER THAN OTHERS IMF said it revised GDP projections much lower for countries in the area due to decreased production and exports. It added that the degree of revision was determined by "damage to energy and transport infrastructure, as well as a country's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz as well as availability of alternate export routes." Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026. This is 1.4 percentage points less than the January estimate. However, the kingdom is expected to be less affected by war than its Gulf neighbors. Iran's economy will shrink by 6.2% in the fiscal year beginning March 21. The following year, it is expected to grow 3.2%. Prior to the war, it had been expected that Iran's economy would grow by 1.1% this fiscal year. The IMF report stated that Bahrain, Iraq Kuwait and Qatar will also see their economies contract in this year. The IMF report said that GDP growth revisions for oil and gas importers were milder. Egypt's growth, for instance, is expected to slow from 4.7% to 4.2% by 2026, but then recover to 4.8% by 2027. Staff Reporting; Editing by Edwina Ricci and Andrea Ricci
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Oil prices drop on renewed US-Iran discussions, Wall Street gains
Wall Street indexes continued to rise, oil prices fell and the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven waned Tuesday after the United States indicated that 'new peace talks' with Iran may be imminent despite the 'blockade' on Iran's port. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks in Pakistan could resume within the next two weeks after they had broken down over the weekend. Pakistani and Iranian officials said that negotiations could resume, with the agenda covering Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions as well as transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.63% to 48.522.30. The S&P 500 grew 1.11% at 6,962.85 while the Nasdaq Composite grew 1.84% at 23,611.10. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that the shift from missiles to verbal attacks in the U.S.Iran conflict has left markets hopeful for the beginning of an end to the war. The S&P 500 has returned to its pre-war level thanks to gains in large?tech stocks. Europe's STOXX 600 recovered and rose 0.99% for the day. However, it remained below its close of?February 27th the day before U.S. & Israel began their strikes against Iran. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, warned that markets are "trading in hope, not in resolution." The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook. BlackRock, the $14 trillion asset manager, reported a first-quarter profit increase that drove its stock up by 3.5%. This helped to reverse some of its losses this year. Citigroup beat first-quarter earnings estimates, and its stock rose by more than 3%. JPMorgan beat expectations as well, but its shares fell 0.6%. Dollar DIPS The Dollar Index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and other currencies, is now within striking distance from its levels in late February, having fallen 0.26% to 98.09 on Tuesday. Since the beginning of hostilities, the dollar's status as a safe haven has pushed the currency up. The dollar dropped to 97.978 in the morning session, the lowest since the first day of trading after the start of the war. The U.S. Labor Department's inflation data weighed on the dollar. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures final demand, showed a 0.5% increase last month. This was below the 1.1% rise forecast by economists. OIL BACKS DOWN Prices fell on expectations of a further dialogue to end the conflict, which outweighed worries about supply disruptions. Brent fell to $95.02 a barrel, down by 4.37% for the day. U.S. crude oil?lost 7.27% to trade at $91.88 per barrel. The benchmarks were trading at over $100 per barrel just one day before the U.S. started a blockade of Iran’s ports. This angered Tehran and added uncertainty to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In the first week in April, a Bank of America survey of global funds managers showed that investors expected oil to 'priced' at $84 per barrel by the end the year. INFLATION CONCERNS BUY TREASURY YIELDS U.S. Treasury Yields have drifted downwards, with the yield on the two-year bond down 2.6 basis points to 3.755%. The benchmark yield for the 10-year bond is 3.7 basis 'points' lower at 4.26%. The two-year Treasury yields are still nearly 40 basis points above their levels in late February, despite the fact that they usually move along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now preparing for the possibility of major central banks reversing their course and moving towards a hike in interest rates this year. (Editing by Mark Potter, Jan Harvey and Mark Potter with additional reporting by Avinash and Niket P in Bengaluru; Rae Wee and Niket Nishant in Singapore)
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Administration sources claim that the US will allow waivers on Iran oil to expire
Two administration officials said on Tuesday that the Trump administration would allow a waiver of 30 days on sanctions against Iranian oil on sea to expire this week. The U.S. has imposed a blockade for shipments coming from Iranian ports. One official said that the move was a sign of "Treasury going full force on Economic Fury" against Iran. This is an apparent reference Operation Epic Fury - the U.S. led military campaign against Iran. Trump has said for years that it will apply "maximum" pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program and its support of militants in the Middle East. However, sanctioned oil continues to reach China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated last month that the waiver, which was issued by the Treasury Department 'on March 20', allowed 140 million barrels to reach global markets, and helped ease?pressure on energy during?the war against Iran. The waiver expires on April 19. The decision to not renew waivers on oil comes after lawmakers of both parties criticized the administration for temporarily easing sanctions on Tehran, and Moscow while the U.S. is at war with Iran, and Moscow is continuing its war against Ukraine. The sources also said that the U.S. did not renew its waiver for Russian oil on the sea, which expired on Saturday. One?source said that Washington can impose a variety of sanctions on institutions engaged in illicit activities such as buying Iranian oil. These include'secondary sanctions'. The person said that any interaction with Tehran would trigger additional sanctions, given the recent snapback of U.N. Sanctions on Iran and the history of Iran's attempts to conceal behind legitimate activities to "conduct illicit conduct". Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier told reporters that the U.S. Blockade of Strait of Hormuz will ensure that no Chinese or other?ships? would be allowed to pass. They won't be able to get oil. They can get their oil. Bessent added that China was buying Iranian oil at a rate of about 8% per year. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, Nia Williams and Timothy Gardner)
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Gold gains 2% as dollar weakens and hopes for US-Iran talks resume
As the U.S. Dollar weakened on Tuesday, gold prices rose 2%. Meanwhile, hopes for a resumption of?U.S.-Iran talks also helped to support prices by easing inflation fears. By 1:34 pm, spot gold had risen 2% to $4,831.78 an ounce. ET (1734 GMT). U.S. Gold futures closed 1.7% higher at 4,850.10. U.S. president Donald Trump said that talks to end the Iran War could resume in Pakistan within the next two day after the weekend's collapsed negotiations led Washington to impose an Iranian port blockade. The?direction' of the gold price will be determined by the outcome of the Pakistani talks and the progress made in the lead-up to the weekend. Bob?Haberkorn is a senior market analyst at RJO Futures. He said that if we hear positive news about Pakistan, metals are likely to continue rising. He added that "lower dollar and lower oil are helping gold right now, because when the war began, there was an rush for cash, as well as a concern over being able o accumulate energy supplies." Oil prices also fell as the dollar weakened. The weaker dollar makes the greenback price of bullion more affordable to holders of other currencies. The data showed that U.S. producers prices increased less than expected as the cost for services remained unchanged in March, but the surging energy costs due to the war with Iran were causing inflation pressures. Gold, despite its role as a hedge against inflation, becomes less attractive when rates are higher because it does not offer a yield. The traders are now pricing a 33% chance of a U.S. interest rate?cut in this year, as opposed to expectations for two cuts prior to the war. Analysts at Commerzbank stated that the price of gold is unlikely to drop much more as long as the market doesn't begin to seriously consider an increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Silver spot rose by 5.2%, to $79.48 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.3%, to $2,096.91. Palladium increased 0.7%, to $1,585.21. (Reporting and editing by Keith Weir in Bengaluru)
Bessent criticizes IMF and World Bank forecasts; says US prices will rapidly cycle upward
U.S. Treasury secretary Scott?Bessent took issue on Tuesday with the cuts in global growth projections and the higher?inflation forecasts announced by the?International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank as a result of?the war in the Middle East. He said the institutions probably "overreacted." Bessent said that he thought the institutions had "overreacted" but that we would see. He noted that some countries, in Europe and Asia, were implementing consumer or industrial subsidies as a way to cope with supply disruptions, which could lead to persistently higher inflation.
He said that he was confident the U.S. will cycle through price increases very quickly. This is unlike other countries that implement subsidies which could increase borrowings and prolong the duration of inflationary effects.
IMF cut its growth forecast on Tuesday due to war-driven spikes in energy prices. The IMF offered a variety of scenarios, all including lower growth and higher rates of inflation. The IMF stated that if the conflict had not occurred, it would have increased its growth forecast by 0.1 percent to 3.4%.
Bessent, despite his dismissive comments on the institutions' predictions, said that the leaders of both the IMF, and World Bank, had heard his request last year to return to their core missions, macroeconomic stability, and development and to move away from climate change.
Bessent, who spoke at an event organized by the global banking trade association, the Institute of International Finance, as well as to reporters afterward, said that he believed both institutions are now more aligned with U.S. interests and priorities.
He applauded World?Bank for ending a nuclear power project ban, and said that the IMF had been working closely with Treasury to bring Venezuela back into global financial system.
He repeated his request that the IMF?sell its Golf Course in a Maryland Suburb of Washington.
Bessent noted that Dan Katz, his former chief-of-staff, is now the IMF's No. 2 official. The IMF's No. 2 official is now Dan Katz.
"I think they understand the U.S. perspective, and I believe they want to be good partners." He told reporters that there had been some inertia, and some weeding of previous programs. But he believes they are now very aligned. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Katharine and Andrea Ricci
(source: Reuters)