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Fuel prices in Bangladesh rise as a result of the Iran war
The Bangladeshi energy ministry announced late Saturday that retail fuel prices have been raised by 10 to 15%. They cited a sharp rise in crude oil prices globally and tightening supply due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. According to an official announcement, the new prices for petrol, diesel and kerosene are 135 taka per litre ($1.10), up from 116. The increase in import costs was unavoidable, officials said, as rising crude oil prices, supply-chain disruptions, and higher freight and Insurance costs have all contributed to the rise. This is especially true after the price of oil has risen during the seven-week Iran 'war. The rising cost of fuel in Bangladesh, where the nation relies heavily on imported fuels, is putting pressure on its already strained reserves of foreign currency. The government tried to cushion consumers initially through subsides, delayed price adjustments and tighter stock control. However, authorities stated that these measures were becoming increasingly difficult to maintain as global prices continued their upward trend. Dhaka already has more than 2? billion in foreign financing for energy imports. Fuel shortages have caused long queues at gas stations. Officials blame panic buying and hoarding as the cause of this. This latest price increase is expected to add to inflationary pressures in areas such as transport and agriculture where diesel is commonly used. It could also potentially raise food prices and overall living costs. Bangladesh has joined a growing number of countries that have adjusted their domestic fuel prices to respond to the soaring oil prices on global markets.
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Motor racing: Six injured and one dead in Nuerburgring race crash, officials
Organisers said that racing driver Juha Miettinen was killed and six drivers were injured in an accident at the 'ADAC 24h Nuerburgring qualifiers on Saturday. The race officials confirmed that Miettinen died following the early-race crash. All the other drivers who were injured were treated in hospital for injuries that were not serious. In the early stages of the first race of the ADAC 24-hour Nurburgring Qualifier, seven drivers were involved in a serious accident. The emergency medics, despite the arrival of the emergency services, were unable to save Juha Miettinen, after he was removed from the vehicle. The driver died in the Medical Centre, after all attempts at resuscitation failed. The race will not be resumed on Saturday evening and there will be a minute's silence during Sunday's grid formation. (Reporting and editing by Clare Fallon; Karolos Grohmann)
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Police in Kyiv kill a shooter who opened up fire
Ihor Klymenko, the Ukrainian Interior Minister, said that police killed a man on Saturday who had opened fire in a city district and barricaded himself inside a supermarket. Klymenko stated that the number of casualties?in this incident in the city’s?Holosiivskyi District was still being clarified. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that there were also victims inside the store. He had earlier stated the suspect killed two people. Klymenko posted on Telegram, a messaging app? that Klymenko uses to communicate with his friends and family: "The shooter was liquidated when he was arrested." Special forces from the...national police stormed a store where the attacker was. He took people hostage and fired at a policeman while he was being held. Negotiators had tried to reach him before that. Klitschko stated that 10 people were being treated in hospital. Five others were injured. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, and Ron Popeski)
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South Africa's central bank chief warns that the Middle East conflict clouds prospects for rate cuts
South Africa's Central Bank Governor said that it was difficult to see an easing of interest rates in the near future due to the volatile war in the Middle East, and its impact on the inflation rate. Lesetja Kganyago, the South African Reserve Bank Governor, said that the bank will not update its growth or inflation forecasts in between meetings. Instead it relies on "scenarios," to understand the impact caused by the wildly fluctuating prices of commodities such as fuel and fertilizer. Kganyago, in an interview at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank Group spring meetings in Washington, said that the conflict would have a negative impact on growth and also increase inflation. In an environment in which you expect inflation to rise, I do not think that anyone can continue to talk about a relaxation in monetary policies in such an environment," he continued. Last month, the bank maintained its policy rate of 6.75% citing the need to be cautious due to the impact that higher energy prices will have on inflation. The bank revised its risk scenarios before the meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East crisis. The negative scenario assumed that oil would average $94 per barrel for the entire year, and that exchange rates would depreciate by 20%. "That was March. He said that we are now in a totally different environment. "We'll do new scenarios in may." The Middle East conflict and its?wild swings of commodity prices have largely halted the push for monetary easing among central banks in emerging markets. He said that South Africa did not face fuel shortages, and it would be a while before its farmers could feel the impact of a fertilizer shortage. Prices have changed in every direction...the only thing we know for sure is that there is uncertainty.
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Jalal Green shoots past Warriors to charge into the playoffs
Jalen's Green 36 points lifted the Phoenix Suns to the playoffs on Friday with a play-in victory of 111-96 over the Golden State Warriors. The Suns have earned the eighth seed in the Western Conference. On Sunday, they will host the top-seeded and defending Oklahoma City Thunder to begin a first round series. Jordan Ott, Phoenix coach, said: "Sometimes it's not the road you think it will be or the most traveled one. Sometimes it's just the road that is least traveled." "We found our path in, now we're on to the next thing." Phoenix scored 30 points on the Warriors' 21 mistakes. The Suns were able to hold on after Phoenix lost a late advantage against the Portland Trail Blazers during the play-in opening. The drama was not over yet. Golden State's Draymond green fouled out just over a minute after the final whistle. Warriors coach Steve Kerr embraced both Draymond Curry and Draymond green during a special moment. The three players were part of four NBA Championship runs. "I'm not sure what's going to occur." I love coaching, but I understand. Kerr's contract expires this summer. There's always a 'run' and, when it ends, there's often a need for fresh blood, new ideas, etc. If that's true, I'll be 'nothing' but grateful to have the opportunity to coach the franchise. Draymond green and Devin Booker, a Suns player, began a heated conversation as the game resumed. The discussion continued for a few moments before both players received a technical foul. Green was ejected. Phoenix opened up a huge lead after the Warriors scored their first two points. They then closed out the quarter with 8 consecutive points for a 33-15 lead. Golden State scored 15 points in the first quarter, their lowest total since March 7, when they scored 14 against the Thunder in the fourth. The Suns struggled in the second quarter after shooting 52.4% during the first. Golden State was within two points of Phoenix after Curry's free-throws, which he made with 19.6 seconds left in the first half. Jalen green elevated to shoot a 3-pointer on the wing as the clock ticked down. It was the Suns first field goal in over five minutes, giving Phoenix a lead of 50-45 at halftime. Brandin Podziemski, a Golden State player who leads the team with 23 points, scored 10 of them in the second. He led the Warriors in?10 rebounds. Jalen's two 3-pointers helped the Suns to gain control of the third quarter with an 11-1 run. Booker had 20 points, 8 assists and 6 rebounds. Jordan Goodwin, a Phoenix player, added 19 points and nine rebounds. Ott stated, "Truly this group has been a?special one all year. It was special again the last three or four days. They overcame the disappointment by?coming out to play that hard and against a team with every solution known." "... "... Curry scored 17 points, but he was only 4 of 16 on the floor. He also made just 3 of 10 3-pointers. De'Anthony Melton, who came off the bench to score 16 points with eight rebounds, also contributed. Field Level Media
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Australia relaxes fuel standards to boost supply
Chris Bowen, Australia's Energy Minister, said that the country would ease up on its standards for fuel quality until September. This is because of a deterioration in fuel supplies due to the war with Iran. Bowen made a televised statement: "I have decided to extend the period for higher sulphur in petrol in Australia." The relaxation announced in March increases the amount of allowed sulphur in fuel from the usual 10 parts to 50 parts. As the war, now in its eighth week, disrupted supply chain, Australia has seen localised shortages. Bowen?said that the production of diesel, jet-fuel and petrol at a Viva Energy oil refinery (VEA.AX), owned by Viva Energy in Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state, remained the same as Friday. He said that the Geelong refinery was still operating at 60% for petrol and 60% for diesel. Anthony Albanese, Australian Prime Minister, said that the fire would not trigger fuel restrictions. Albanese also secured a deal this week with Malaysian energy?firm Petronas for the supply of?excess fuel in?Australia following trips to Singapore, Brunei and other countries aimed at boosting energy supplies. (Reporting from Sam McKeith, Sydney; Editing done by William Mallard).
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World Bank launches new small state strategy to tackle challenges
The World Bank announced a new strategy on Friday that focuses on jobs to help small island states, and other small countries address challenges like remoteness, shock exposure and a limited economic base. World Bank President Ajay Banga spoke about the initiative in a closed door meeting of 50 ministers and governors of central banks from small countries, held during the spring meetings for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. He explained that the idea was to use different tools to help smaller states attract more investment, implement policy and regulatory changes to make it easier to run and grow businesses, and create more jobs. The Bank will focus on areas like health, affordable energy and resilient infrastructure, as well as micro-and small businesses. These are the areas where officials believe there are the best opportunities to boost growth, strengthen businesses and create better jobs. Last year, the World Bank Group approved new commitments and guarantee of $3.3 billion for "small states" who face unique economic challenges, and are disproportionately impacted by shocks as was seen during the Middle East war. In a blog that was released with the new strategy, the bank stated: "For small business, a hurricane, an unexpected?surge? in fuel prices or a decline in tourism could wipe out months of income and investment in just a few days." Banga said that the Bank would take a differentiated strategy to develop regional projects in these countries. Partnerships will be an important component. "This isn't a one size fits all approach." Banga said to the finance officials that small states are diverse and our support would reflect this. "We know that the economics of small states are different," Banga told the finance officials. He said that the cost of working in smaller states can be up to four-times higher than in bigger countries. The Bank therefore planned to streamline its delivery, use more flexible funding and scale solutions in order to maximize each dollar. Several projects have already begun. The bank, in Tonga for instance, will co-finance a urban resilience project with the Asian Development Bank, under a framework agreement of mutual reliance, a first between multilateral development banks. Banga stated that he was planning to sign more agreements, including with the Inter-American Development Bank in order to extend the approach to the Caribbean. He said that the World Bank is also increasing the tools available for countries. The bank also said that better diagnostics was important. The bank said that it was preparing more detailed reports on the challenges faced by private sector hiring in Barbados, Guinea Bissau, Lesotho Mauritius Samoa and Seychelles. The blog also noted that the World Bank could leverage its power to drive investments. The 'International Finance Corp', the bank’s investment arm, for example, helped to 'fund the development of Botswana’s first utility-scale Solar Project', while the World Bank worked on a project on battery storage in parallel, enabling the integration of solar into the grid. The bank stated in its blog that the result was not just a solar power plant but also a model of how private financing can be used to open up markets and create employment. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Shalal)
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Moody's lowers Iraq's credit outlook to "negative" on Middle East conflict risks
Moody's, a credit rating agency, re-evaluated Iraq's outlook on Friday from "stable" to "negative", citing the risks to the country's "credit profile" due to 'the ongoing Middle East conflict' impacting security and energy flow. Moody's stated that "Iraq's heavy dependence on the oil industry implies that disruptions to exports through Strait of Hormuz, which account for around 90% of Iraq's oil exports, will materially reduce dollar inflows as well as fiscal revenues." Iraqi energy officials stated last month that the main southern oilfields of the OPEC'members have seen their output fall by 80% as a result of the U.S. - Iran?war, and the closing down the strait. This has pushed storage levels to a 'high and critical level. Abbas Araqchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, said that the Strait of Hormuz was now open after a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. Donald Trump, U.S. president said he believes a deal will be reached to end the Iran War "soon", but the timing is still unclear. Four energy sources reported that Iraq resumed its southern oil exports last Friday after a hiatus of over a month. Moody's said in its report that "even if the ceasefire is maintained, it may take some time before flows in 'the Strait' return to normal." The agency kept the country's rating at "Caa1". (Reporting and editing by Unnamalai L, Bengaluru)
INSTANT VIEW: Investor reactions to Trump's agreement to a two-week ceasefire.
The U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran was reached less than two hours prior to his deadline of Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or facing widespread attacks against its civilian infrastructure.
Oil fell, bonds rose and stocks surged as the ceasefire seemed to pave the way for lasting peace and the resumption Gulf oil and natural gas exports.
Here are some comments from analysts and investors:
SAUL KAVONIC HEAD OF ENERGY RESEARCH MST MARQUEE SYDNEY
This is a way out of Trump's bombastic ultimatum but it does not mean that the oil market or war will be over. The oil and LNG shut down is unlikely to resume until there's more confidence that a ceasefire will last.
A two-week ceasefire could allow some LNG and oil tankers to be released from the Strait of Hormuz, easing some of the market pressure in May. It does not lead to more production but rather a release of water storage.
Even if there is a peace agreement, the market would be between 3 million to 5 million barrels per day tighter in the coming years than pre-war expectations due to the damage done to the oil and oil products export infrastructure, which will take months, if not years, to repair.
SHINGO IDE, CHIEF EQUALITY STRATEGIST, NLI RESEARCH INSITUTE, TOKYO
"This was not a unilateral statement from Trump or the U.S. Pakistan's role as a mediator lends it credibility.
"I believe there is a growing hope that if the situation continues in this manner beyond these two weeks, then it could transition to a real truce.
"That being said, the United States is still far behind Iran in their thinking... and what Israel is aiming at is on a completely different level. "I think that there is still much to do before these three parties reach an agreement they can all accept."
KYLE RODDA, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE:
This is the Grande TACO that the markets were looking for. This is a significant development that could be a turning point in the markets. In this world, things can swing violently based on another headline. The re-opening is huge. Oil prices are likely to have reached their peak. This crisis will have ripple effects. We've likely seen the?peak of escalation, and volatility."
PRASHANT NEWNAHA SENIOR RATE STRATEGIST TD SECURITIES SINGAPORE
"A new escalation is not ruled out. But the markets treat this ceasefire like it's the real thing, and all parties will market the ceasefire to the public as a huge win. As the worst case scenario has been avoided, risk assets and bonds are expected to rally.
Looking further ahead, oil prices will not return to their pre-war level. This will make the persistence of inflation a major theme for markets. It is likely that this will put a halt at some point to the current rally in rates.
RAY ATTRILL HEAD OF FOREX STRATEGY NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK SYDNEY
"A lot needs to happen in the next 14-days. The markets still need to proceed with the degree of scepticism Iran fully accepts, leaving them vulnerable to a retracement.
I don't believe anyone will be betting on a final resolution to the Middle East issue, and there will be concern about the amount the oil price will drop. We know that it will take months to repair the damage. "$90 is very different from an oil price between $75 and 85."
CHARU CHANANA CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST SAXO SINGAPORE
This is a de-escalation sign for the markets, particularly with Hormuz's reopening. It reduces the immediate shock of oil and supports risk sentiment.
The key question is whether the talks continue to progress during this two week window. Also, will energy flows and shipping activity return to normal? And, finally, will insurers and tanker owners regain sufficient confidence that Hormuz can function again smoothly? This will determine if this is just a relief rally, or if it looks more like a de-escalation lasting."
JAMIE COX MANAGING PARTNER HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUPS, RICHMOND VIRGINIA
Markets predicted that Trump would be looking for a way out of Iran. He got one today and he took it.
The markets have risen over the past week as a result of a rise in the number of tough talks, which is usually followed by the inevitable twist in order to reach a settlement.
BESA DEDA CHIEF ECONOMIST WILLIAM BUCK SYDNEY
Markets are likely to show cautious optimism, since this is the first meaningful truce since hostilities started. Investors will be aware that the ceasefire may not last. It is hoped that this will happen, thus limiting the risks of a more profound economic impact.
Even if the ceasefire leads to a final resolution, it will take some time to repair and restore infrastructure and refineries. It's better than the prolonged impact.
ANDREW LILLEY IS THE CHIEF RATES STRATEGIST, BARRENJOEY SYDNEY.
"We have a long way to go to get back where we were before this began. Now, the market is unsure about the extent to the which oil prices will return to $75.
"This little precipice, where oil is flowing and no one is in shortage, but it remains at a price equilibrium of $90 is where you eliminate the tail risk, which central banks are cutting.
It's a scenario that will result in permanent high yields, because we'll have damaged infrastructure for months and a high oil price that is going to stick around. This means we're going get higher inflation."
GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH, K2 ?ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE:
Restocking the energy supply is key in the coming week, as the conflict could re-ignite quickly. It is less likely that a recession will occur, especially if oil, gas and fertiliser are available in the coming week. The markets are never complacent and always pragmatic as they look through the conflict. Valuations remain compelling from a 1-year perspective."
MARTIN WHETTON HEAD OF FINANCIAL MARKETS STRATEGY WESTPAC SYDNEY
"This happens every day." Does it mean that people will take on new risks? It doesn't.
"There would need to be a real lasting peace (to change the situation). The people aren't taking any risks. "This is just algos doing things."
BRIAN JACOBSEN CHIEF ECONOMIST ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT MENOMONEE FALLS WISCONSIN
"President Trump stated that he had agreed to a ceasefire of two weeks. This is enough to maintain hope that an entire civilization will not be destroyed and oil could start flowing through Strait of Hormuz.
Is it simply a matter of moving the goalposts, TACO Tuesday or any other metaphor that we choose, only for tempers to flare up and bombs to drop again? Who knows? "But it's good for now, to elicit positive responses from the markets." Reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee in Tokyo, Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore, and Tony Munroe and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; editing by Sumeet Chaterjee
(source: Reuters)