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Oil prices fall on hope of US withdrawal from Iran war
Oil prices dropped more than $1 early on Thursday, as the markets awaited President Donald Trump's address to the nation that could signal the U.S. withdrawal from the war in Iran. Brent crude futures dropped $1.16 or 1.15% to $100 per barrel at 1204 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures fell $1.41 or 1.41% to $98.71 a barrel. Both benchmarks were lower in the previous session. Trump announced on Wednesday that he would be speaking at 9 pm, hours before the scheduled time. The U.S. is expected to end its war on Iran "fairly quickly" at 00:00 GMT (00:00 EDT) on Thursday. In a recent note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said that "the overnight sell-off gained pace due to mounting hopes" that the Iran conflict was?finally winding down. The?market has been widely anticipating a decidedly dovish ton." Sycamore stated that a U.S. withdrawal does not guarantee reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are likely to remain high if the U.S. does not reach a formal ceasefire agreement that would guarantee free passage, leaving its regional allies' energy assets and the U.S. vulnerable to Iranian attacks. As the conflict in the region intensifies, the threats to maritime traffic are increasing. The latest incident occurred on Wednesday when an oil tanker, leased by QatarEnergy, was struck by an Iranian cruise missile while in Qatari waters. On Wednesday, the head of International Energy Agency warned that supply disruptions would begin to impact Europe's economic growth in April. The continent was previously shielded from the effects of war by cargoes that were contracted before it began. (Reporting and editing by Colleen Waye)
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Australia's KGL resources signs $300 million streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals
KGL Resources, an Australian miner, announced on Thursday that it had entered into a $300-million precious metals streaming agreement with a unit of Canada’s Wheaton Precious Materials for a?part of the gold and silver produced at?its Jervois Copper project. KGL shares rose 61.9%, to A$0.340. This was their best day since the middle of 2014. Stocks also reached their highest levels since May 22, 2020. KGL announced that Wheaton Precious Metals will fund up to $275m in advance, with an option of $25m for cost overruns. The upfront funding includes two $16 million installments that are available before construction starts, but subject to certain conditions, including regulatory approvals. The remaining $243 millions will be paid in four equal payments tied to the construction milestones. Wheaton will pay a portion of the spot price for silver and gold that is produced by the project. The streaming arrangement begins with 75% payable silver and gold, then drops to lower percentages when certain delivery thresholds are reached. KGL stated that the agreement included protections against delays in construction, including additional metal deliveries, should timelines slip. It also includes?security of project assets and corporate assets. KGL stated that the funding marked a significant step in developing the 'Jervois Project' and positioning the company to become an Australian copper producer. Wheaton has signed its first precious metals streaming contract in Australia. This follows its February announcement of a streaming deal covering?BHP?s share in Peru's Antamina?mine. Wheaton, one of the largest precious metals streaming companies in the world, is focused on gold and Silver. (Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
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Trump claims that the US has enough jet fuel to supply Europe
Analysts point out that President Donald?Trump's advice to countries who are struggling to obtain jet fuel because of Iran's blocking of the Strait of?Hormuz is flawed: the U.S. cannot cover the global shortage. Trump said in a Truth Social posting on Tuesday, "We have plenty." U.S. data proves that this is not true. Kpler, which tracks vessels, shows that about half a milllion barrels of jet fuel are exported from the Strait of Hormuz every day, mostly to Europe, but also to Asia, Africa and other parts of the world. The Energy Information Administration (the Department of Energy’s statistical arm) shows that total U.S. exports of jet fuel averaged 219,000 barrels per day last year. Matt?Smith, Kpler analyst, said: "It's very, very unlikely the U.S. will be able to replace Strait of Hormuz supplies." REALITY CHECK EIA data shows that the United States is the largest consumer of jetfuel in the world, and the majority of jet fuel produced by the country is consumed at home. EIA reported that refiners and fuel blends produced 1,97 million bpd jet fuel last week. This was slightly more than the demand of 1,79 million bpd. Smith stated that "even if the U.S. has plenty of jet fuel, there are also plenty of airlines." The majority of U.S. jet-fuel production is located in the Gulf Coast region, while major demand centers on the?East Coast and West Coast of the United States have relied upon imports for their fuel needs. As a result, the West Coast will need to import more fuel from the Gulf Coast of the United States as its usual suppliers in Asia have been hit the hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asian refiners had to reduce production and stop exports. California was left searching for alternative suppliers. US CONSUMERS WILL PAY MORE IF EXPORTS GO UP. The U.S. exports more fuels to the global market, including jet fuel. This is because it is the only major fuel producer that is not directly affected by the war. Tom Kloza is the chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil. He said that jet fuel prices in the United States have risen since the Iran War began. However, they are still lower than the other markets directly affected by the Strait of Hormuz Blockade. This encourages higher exports. Kloza stated that at least four or five cargoes of diesel and jet fuel were loaded into the New York Harbor area for delivery to Europe. This is a reversal of the usual flow?that has these products coming from Europe up the U.S. East Coast. GasBuddy's data shows that wholesale jet fuel costs are between $4 and $5 per gallon for most of the United States. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said that the average cost of jet-fuel in the U.S. Gulf Coast ranges between $2.50 to $3 per gallon. De Haan stated that the higher export demand would?ultimately lead to more price increases for U.S. customers, posing a significant challenge for Trump's administration. The more demand for U.S. Jet Fuel, the higher prices. De Haan explained that the more cookies there are in the cookie jar the less cookies you get.
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Stocks and currencies are on tenterhooks before Trump's address on Iran War
The dollar weakened and oil fell on Thursday, as investors held their collective breath in anticipation of Donald Trump's speech that could signal the end of war in the Middle East?and increase risk appetite. After a brutal month in March, when oil prices spiked and sent risk assets into a tailspin, the prospect of an end to the?month-long 'U.S.-Israel?war against Iran? has lifted global shares. The dollar is now off its recent highs. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan, which measures all shares in the region, was slightly higher at opening after recording its largest one-day gain since November 2022. Japan's Nikkei is poised to have a good start. Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would be "out" of Iran "pretty quickly", and that they could return "for spot hits" if necessary. This was ahead of his planned primetime address at 1100 GMT?on?Thursday. Trump and his top officials offered several timelines to end the war. He said that the U.S. military campaign against Iran could be ended within two to three week. Analysts and investors are analyzing the speech to determine when and how the Strait of Hormuz - a major route for fuel shipping - will reopen, and ease the supply bottleneck that has affected Asian economies. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said: "A U.S. withdrawal within the next couple of weeks would remove a massive layer tension." However, this does not guarantee that energy will flow smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian response is crucial, especially if Tehran continues to use its geographic position to impose tolls and selective inspections of passing tankers or strikes on the energy infrastructures of its neighbouring nations. Iran is using the Strait o'Hormuz as leverage. It carries about a fifth of all oil and natural gas in the world. Worries about a slowing economy and higher energy prices also dampened sentiment in March. Investors have flocked to the U.S. Dollar during the turmoil, but the prospect for a ceasefire this week has caused the greenback to weaken. In early trading the euro bought $1.1591, holding on to recent gains. The 'Japanese yen' was trading at 158.68 against the U.S. Dollar, a few cents away from 160. This is a crucial level for traders who fear that Tokyo could intervene. Brent front-month contract for June dropped 2.7% to $101.16 per barrel, rebounding from a session low price of $98.35. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee)
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Are central banks selling Treasuries to the public? McGeever
Are central banks selling treasuries in light of the controversial U.S. war in the Middle East? It's likely yes, but complicated. The New York Federal Reserve has just lowered the foreign-owned Treasuries in its custody to the lowest level in 16 years, below $3 trillion. This indicates that foreign central banks are selling at an increasing?rapid rate. The decline in Fed 'custody'?holdings has been eye-catching, as I noted last week. Deutsche Bank strategists estimated that the fall of $75 billion in the four-week period ending March 19, indicated a net selling of $60 billion by central banks. This would be some of the most aggressive sales ever. The official U.S. Treasury International Capital figures - which are the gold standard data for foreign holdings in U.S. Treasuries – show that central bank sales abroad were minimal last year, but that net purchases were the highest in 13 years in January. What is it then? Selling or shifting? Fed custody data can be a good?proxy' for foreign central bank and their Treasuries. But it is not perfect. The vast majority of the custody holdings are foreign central bank totals. However, they also include quasi-official entities like sovereign wealth funds and multilateral organizations. Fed custody changes don't always reflect the amount or even whether central banks are purchasing or selling. Custody holdings, for example, plummeted by $238 billion in the past year, suggesting that central banks were selling U.S. debt at a breakneck pace. Official TIC data revealed that the net sales by foreign central banks of Treasury notes and bonds last year amounted to only $34 billion. This is less than 1% of the $3.5 trillion in their vault. How can we square that? Changes in exchange rates and bond prices can explain changes in custody data. Some of the "selling", however, can be explained by central banks moving their holdings from U.S. jurisdictions to other parts of their investment network or non-U.S. jurisdictions. Brad Setser, of the Council on Foreign Relations, has long argued that the recent decline of China's holdings in Treasuries is partially explained by the fact Beijing has been funneling large quantities of foreign assets into its state-owned banks. China's actual holdings are likely to be much higher than what the official figures suggest. Footprints shrinking at nominal highs The official TIC data will be released in May, and we'll know if central banks sold in March. The decline in custody holdings and the weak foreign demand for recent Treasury auctions as well as the falling bond prices suggest that they did. It's still worth remembering that, according to the latest official TIC data published in mid-March, foreign central banks purchased a net of $50.6 billion in Treasuries during January. It was a rare instance where the?official' demand was greater than private sector demand. This was also the second-largest monthly purchase by central banks in 13 years. The private sector is a 'big buyer of U.S. Bonds in recent years, with investors investing nearly $1 trillion over the calendar years of 2024 and 2025. This easily offsets the $61 billion net selling by central banks. Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at an all-time high. In the last 12 months, foreign investors owned $9.23 trillion in U.S. Government debt. This included $7.78 trillion in bonds and notes and $1.45 trillion in bills. All of these are record highs. As a percentage of all Treasuries, however, foreign ownership continues to decline. Morgan Stanley analysts say that in the fourth quarter last year it dropped to 32% - the lowest level since 1997. However, this'share' had been flatlining at around 33-34% ever since the pandemic. The central banks will likely sell Treasuries at a margin, not in large quantities. It's not yet. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Australia offers businesses 693 million dollars in low-cost loans to ease fuel price pressure
The Australian government will offer up to A$1 billion ($693 millions) in interest-free loan to "critical" businesses such as transport operators and fertiliser manufacturers, according to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Australia imports over 80% of the fuel it uses, and this has led to concerns about availability. The fear of shortages has sparked panic buying in certain regions, despite assurances from the government that "the market is adequately supplied." "No government can promise to eliminate all the pressures?that this crisis will impose. We can act as a buffer to the worst. In a speech at the National Press Club,?Albanese will say that we are a'shock absorber in a world of global shocks. These loans are available to help businesses that need immediate financial assistance. Albanese warned, in a rare address to the nation on Wednesday?that the effects of the war in the Middle East will last for many months and affect both families?and businesses. In his speech, he'll say that the move to provide loans highlights his centre-left Labor Government's focus on ease cost-of living pressures. This priority will 'formulate' next month's Federal Budget. "It's our?government’s most important budget yet - and will be our most ambitious. It has to be. "The scale of the challenge we face - and the breadth of opportunity before us - requires that ambition and urgency." ($1 = 1.4438 Australian dollars)
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The top cases in the US Supreme Court docket
The U.S. Supreme Court has been deciding on a number of important cases in its current term. These include issues like presidential powers, tariffs and birthright citizenship. Other topics are race, transgender sportspeople, campaign finance laws, voting rights, LGBT “conversion therapy”, religious rights, capital punishment, etc. The term began in October, and will run through June. Separately, the court has also acted in emergency cases that challenge President Donald Trump's policy. BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP On April 1, the?court expressed skepticism about the legality Trump's directive restricting birthright citizenship within the United States. Justices asked the lawyer for the Trump administration questions regarding the legal validity and practical implications of Trump's order. The lower court blocked Trump’s order which instructed U.S. agencies to not recognize citizenship for children born in the U.S. when neither parent was an American citizen, or a legal permanent resident (also called "green card") holder. The court found that Trump's policy was in violation of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and federal laws codifying birthright citizenship. The Supreme Court will likely rule by the end June. TRUMP'S TARIFFS On February 20, the justices struck down Trump's sweeping trade tariffs, which he imposed under a law intended to be used in times of national emergency. This ruling has major implications for global economics. The ruling, which was 6-3 in favor of the lower court, confirmed that Trump had exceeded his authority by using this 1977 law. The court ruled that Trump's claim to have the authority to impose tariffs was not supported by the IEEPA, the 1977 law in question. Congress and not the President has the authority to impose taxes and tariffs, according to the U.S. Constitution. Tariffs are at the heart of a global trade conflict that Trump started after his second term in office. This has alienated trading partner, affected financial markets, and created global economic uncertainty. TRUMP'S FIRE OF FED OFFICIAL Justices expressed skepticism about Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, a move that could threaten the independence of the central bank. The justices said they would not grant Trump's request for a judge to overturn a decision that prevented him from firing Cook immediately while her legal case is being resolved. Congress created the Fed by passing a law, the Federal Reserve Act, that contained provisions designed to protect the central bank against political interference. The law stipulated that governors could only be removed "for cause" by the president, though it does not define this term or establish procedures for removal. Trump claimed that Cook's firing was due to unproven allegations of mortgage fraud, which she has denied. Cook, who is still in her position for now, said that the allegations were a pretext used to fire Cook over differences of monetary policy, as Trump pressures the Fed to reduce interest rates. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. LOUISIANA ELECTORAL DISTRICTS The conservative justices of the court signaled on October 15, their willingness to undermine another key section in the Voting Right Act, a landmark 1965 law enacted to prevent racial bias in voting. This was during a case involving Louisiana's electoral districts. The case centers on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits voting maps that dilute the power of minorities without proof of racism. The lower court found that the Louisiana electoral map, which divided the six U.S. House of Representatives district into two districts with a majority of Black people instead of one before, violated the Constitution promise of equal treatment. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. PROTECTED STATUS?IMMIGRANTS On April 29, the court will hear arguments over the legality the Trump administration’s decision to revoke the temporary legal protections of more than 350,000 Haitians, and approximately 6,100 Syrians who live in the United States. This is a top priority for President Trump as he pursues his policy of mass deportations. The court upheld two judicial orders which temporarily stopped the administration from ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian and Syrian citizens. The Department of Homeland Security under Trump has taken steps to remove TPS for a dozen or so countries. People whose country of origin has suffered a natural catastrophe, armed conflict, or another extraordinary event are eligible for the protections. Federal Trade Commission Firing The conservative justices of the court have signaled that they will uphold Trump's legality in firing a Federal Trade Commission Member and give an historic boost to president power, while also putting at risk a 90-year old legal precedent. On December 8, the court heard arguments in the Justice Department appeal of a decision by a lower court that said the Republican president overstepped his authority in dismissing Democratic FTC member Rebecca Slaughter before the term she was to serve expired. The conservative justices seemed sympathetic to the Trump Administration's argument that tenure protections granted by Congress to independent agency heads unlawfully infringed on presidential powers under the U.S. Constitution. The court allowed Trump to remove Slaughter until the case was resolved. The court is expected to make a ruling by the end June. TRANSGENDER SPORTS PARTIcipation The conservative justices seemed ready to uphold the state laws that ban transgender athletes to female sports teams, amid an escalating nationwide effort to restrict transgender rights. On January 13, the court heard arguments from Idaho and West Virginia in appeals of lower courts' decisions siding with transgender student who challenged the bans imposed in both states as violating U.S. Constitution. 25 other states also have laws similar to this one. The conservative justices expressed concerns over imposing a uniform law on the whole country, amid the sharp disagreements and uncertainty surrounding whether medications such as puberty-blocking hormones or gender affirming hormones remove male physiological advantages in sports. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. LGBT 'CONVERSION THERAPEUTY' On March 31, the court rejected a Democratic-backed Colorado Law that prohibited psychotherapists from using “conversion” talk therapy to change a LGBT minor's gender identity or sexual orientation. The 8-1 decision sided with the Christian licensed counselor and deemed that the law was an intrusion into free speech rights. The court rejected Colorado’s argument that the law only protected speech, but regulated professional conduct. The court reversed a lower-court decision which had upheld a law brought by Kaley Chiles who argued it violated the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment protections. HAWAII GUNS LAW The conservatives expressed skepticism about a Hawaii gun law which restricts the carrying of handguns without permission on public property, such as businesses. They appeared ready to expand the right to own guns again. On January 20, the court heard arguments in a challenge by opponents of the law, backed by Trump's administration, to a judicial decision that Hawaii's Democratic backed measure probably complies with U.S. Constitution Second Amendment rights to bear arms. Hawaii's law demands that a property owner "expressly authorize" the bringing of a handgun on private property. Four other states in the United States have laws similar to Hawaii's. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. Drug Users and Guns On March 2, the justices heard arguments in a case in which a dual American/Pakistani national in Texas was defending a federal gun law that prohibits users of illegal drugs to own guns. Hunter Biden, son of former president Joe Biden, was charged under this law in 2023. The Justice Department appealed a ruling by a lower court that the gun restrictions were in violation of the Second Amendment rights to "keep and carry arms" guaranteed under the U.S. Constitution. Gun Control Act 1968 included a prohibition against gun ownership by illegal drug users. The decision is expected to be made by the end June. CAMPAIGN-FINANCE On December 9, the court heard arguments in a Republican led bid to overturn federal spending limits by political parties coordinated with candidates. The case involved Vice President JDVance. The conservative justices seemed to be sympathetic towards the challenge. However, the three liberal members of the court appeared inclined to maintain the spending limits. The debate centers around whether federal limits on campaign spending coordinated with candidates' input violate First Amendment protections against government abridgment. Vance and Republican challengers have appealed the ruling of a lower court that ruled on restrictions on how much money can be spent on campaigns by parties with input from candidates who support them, a type political expenditure called coordinated party expenses. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. MAIL-IN BALLOTS Conservative justices expressed skepticism in a March 23 case against a Mississippi law that allowed mail-in votes received after Election Day be counted. This could lead to tighter voting laws across the nation. The Trump administration supported the challenge against Mississippi's law that allows mail-in votes sent by certain voters be counted as long as they are postmarked before Election Day and received within five business days of a federal election. In Mississippi, absentee voting is only available to certain categories of voters. These include the elderly, disabled and those who live away from home. A lower court ruled that the law was unconstitutional. The court is expected to rule by the end June. U.S. ASYLUM - PROCESSING On March 24, the court appeared to be ruled in favor of Trump's administration, which defended the government authority to reject asylum seekers if officials deem U.S. - Mexico border crossings to overloaded to handle more claims. The court heard arguments in a legal dispute over a policy known as "metering", which the Republican president may want to reinstate after Biden dropped it in 2021. It allowed U.S. immigration officers to stop asylum seekers and refuse to process their applications indefinitely. The decision is expected to be made by the end June. Human Rights Abuses Abroad The court will hear arguments in an appeal filed by Cisco Systems on April 28, in which the tech firm and Trump's Administration are asking?justices? to limit the scope of a federal statute that has been used in the past to hold corporations accountable for human rights violations?committed overseas. Cisco appealed the 2023 ruling which gave new life to a lawsuit filed in 2011 accusing the California-based firm of developing technology that enabled China's government monitor and persecute Falun Gong members. The Alien Tort Statute was the basis of the lawsuit. This 1789 law had lain dormant in U.S. courtrooms for almost two centuries, before attorneys began to use it in the 1980s in international human rights cases. CRISIS PREGNANCY COUNTER The court seems to be inclined to side with an operator of Christian faith based anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers in New Jersey, in a dispute arising from a state attorney general investigation into the question of whether or not these facilities engages in deceptive practice. During the December 2 arguments, a large majority of the Justices appeared to be inclined to revive a federal lawsuit filed by First Choice Women's Resource Centers against Democratic Attorney General Matthew Platkin's subpoena 2023 seeking information about the organization's doctors and donors. First Choice's facilities are designed to discourage women from getting abortions. The decision is expected to be made by the end June. RASTAFARIAN INMAT The conservative justices seemed inclined to reject the Rastafarian inmate's attempt to sue Louisiana state prison officials after they shaved his head in violation of religious beliefs. On November 10, the case was brought before the court under a federal statute protecting prisoners from religious discrimination. Plaintiff Damon Landor's religion requires that he let his hair grow. He appealed the decision of a lower court to dismiss his lawsuit, because they found that the statute in question did not allow for him to sue officials individually for monetary damages. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. DEATH ROW INMATE The court heard arguments in December in an attempt by Alabama officials in order to pursue the execution for an inmate who was convicted of a murder in 1997 after a lower judge found him intellectually disabled, and therefore ineligible to receive the death penalty. The Republican-led state has appealed a lower court ruling that Joseph Clifton Smith was intellectually disabled, based on his intelligence quotient (IQ), test scores, and expert testimony. In a 2002 Supreme Court decision, the court ruled that executing a person intellectually challenged violates the Eighth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. The Supreme Court is expected to rule by the end June. WEEDKILLER CANCER LAWSUITS On April 27, the court will hear Bayer’s attempt to limit lawsuits claiming Roundup weedkiller caused cancer. This could potentially save billions of dollars. Bayer appealed the ruling of a lower court in a case filed by a man claiming he had been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma following years of exposure Roundup. The lower court rejected Bayer’s argument that U.S. laws governing pesticides bar lawsuits based on claims made under state law. FCC FINES FOR WIRELESS CARRIER The Justices will hear on April 21, a dispute over fines levied by the Federal Communications Commission against major U.S. carriers who shared customer location data with no consent. This is the latest case that has reached the Supreme Court challenging the power of an American regulatory agency. The case concerns the FCC's pursuit to impose tens-of-millions-of-dollars in fines against carriers like Verizon Communications and AT&T before they had their day in the court. COX COPYRIGHT DISSENSION On March 25, the court ruled that Cox Communications could not be held responsible for piracy of songs by subscribers to its internet service. These include Sony Music, Warner Music Group, Universal Music Group, and other labels. This ended their multi-billion dollar music copyright suit. The ruling of 9-0 overturned the decision by a lower court to order a trial to determine the amount the internet service provider was liable for the record labels under a form liability known as contributory copyright violation. Cox said that a retrial would have resulted in a verdict of up to $1.5 billion against the Atlanta ISP.
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Oil prices drop on hopes of a de-escalation in the war. World shares rise
On Wednesday, global stocks rose and oil futures declined in hopes of deescalating the Iran War. The U.S. Dollar softened against a basket other currencies. U.S. Treasury Yields rose from their lows following a pair reports that highlighted the resilience of?the 'U.S. economy. Donald Trump said that the U.S. military could stop its attacks on Iran within two to three weeks and return if necessary for "spot strikes." He also threatened NATO. The war has entered its fifth week, and the White House faces pressure to deescalate due to rising gas prices. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 1.75%. Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments, said: "We have Trump’s comments. They tend to change quite a bit." Everyone is trying to guess what Trump really means when he says something. The markets want a positive outcome, they want to see the war end. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.48% to 46.565.74, S&P 500 gain 0.72% at 6,575.32 while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.16% to 21840.95. STOXX 600 in Europe jumped by?2.5%, boosted by travel, aerospace, and defense stocks. This was a rebound from a poor March, when the pan-European stock index posted its biggest monthly drop since June 2022. The FTSEurofirst 300 index in Europe rose by 57.45, or 2.47%. Earlier, Japan's Nikkei rallied 5.24%. The markets are trading the narrative that war may be over or that at least the U.S. "Markets are trading this narrative that the war could be over, or at least that the?U.S. This is creating a positive'sentiment' in risk assets, said Evelyne Gómez-Liechti of Mizuho. However, she also added that she was inclined to be more skeptical about the rally. IRAN WAR DEVELOPMENTS Trump stated on Wednesday that Iran requested a ceasefire. He will only consider this request after Tehran has stopped blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied making such a request. Even if there is a ceasefire, analysts expect that energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz will be slow to recover to the levels they were before the conflict. Trump will give an update about?Iran at 9 pm ET on Wednesday (0100 GMT Thursday). ET on Thursday (0100 GMT Wednesday). Brent crude fell by 2.7%, to $101.16 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.24%, to $100.12. Euro zone bond rates dropped in hopes of a deescalation of the Middle East. Germany's benchmark 10-year yield for the eurozone fell by 1 basis point, to 2.986%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell?0.12%. This is a continuation of the previous?session, which saw the biggest drop in a single day for two weeks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased by 1.6 basis points, to 4.327%. The yield on the 2-year note, which moves typically in line with Federal Reserve expectations of interest rates, rose 0.8 basis points. The PMI survey shows that eurozone manufacturing growth grew at its fastest pace in four years in March, as supply chain disruptions inflated growth figures. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said on Wednesday that the disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East would increase and begin to affect Europe's economic situation as the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The euro increased by 0.28% to $1.1584. Gold rose in commodities for a 4th session, as the dollar fell, making it less expensive for holders of other currencies. Spot gold increased by 2.11%, to $4768.04 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures closed 2.9% higher at 4,813.10.
US naphtha sales surge on Japanese and Venezuelan demand
U.S.?exports rose to a new record, as Japan rushed for alternatives to Middle?East petrochemical feedstocks after the?Iran Crisis cut them off.?Venezuela?also increased purchases to dilute their heavy oil.
The record exports of naphtha are a sign of the changes in the energy markets this year, and of the new trade lines they have brought with them. Asian petrochemical firms are now looking westward to secure supplies, or they will be forced to stop production. Exports to Venezuela have risen to the top of the list.
According to Kpler, a ship tracking company, the United States exported a record amount of naphtha. Around 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) headed for Asia, which is the highest level in more than four years. Data showed that shipments to Japan increased to 71,000 bpd. This is the highest since December 2021. Exports to South Korea reached a record high of 50,000 bpd. Prices have soared due to the rush of?Asian firms to source naphtha. Middle East Gulf provides 60% of Asia's imports of naphtha, or approximately 35 million barrels per monthly. South Korea also relies on Russian naphtha, which is the first cargo since an import ban in late 2022 due to Moscow's invasion into Ukraine.
The main mechanism for replacing the barrels lost would be to import from the West, said Jorge Molinero of research firm Sparta. He added that freight rates were increasing daily from the West to the East.
Molinero said that the cargo for a medium-sized vessel from the U.S. Gulf Coast towards Japan was worth $9.6m on Friday. This is double what it was before the conflict started.
Naphtha can be used to create petrochemicals like ethylene, which is used in the production of goods such as plastics, textiles, paints, medicines, and construction materials.
JPMorgan analysts said in a report last week that a shortage of feedstock had caused Japan, South Korea, and China to close 5% of their global ethylene production capacity.
VENEZUELAN Imports RISE
Venezuela also received the highest amount of naphtha ever, about 140,000 bpd, to help dilute its heavy crude oil.
Exports of naphtha to Venezuela have risen?after an agreement was made in January between Caracas, Washington and the Venezuelan government to sell up to 50 million barrels in storage of Venezuelan crude oil. The deal also included the supply needed naphtha.
Matt Smith, a Kpler analyst, says that increased Venezuelan oil exports and production have led to a greater need for naphtha. Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston. Editing by Liz Hampton & Daniel Walls.
(source: Reuters)