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IMF cuts growth forecasts for Middle East exporters as Gulf exporters suffer from the impact of war
International Monetary Fund announced on Tuesday that the Middle East and North Africa will 'experience a sharply lower growth rate this year due to the oil exporting countries dealing with the 'fallout' of the Iran War. IMF's World Economic Outlook's forecast for the region's real growth in GDP was cut to just 1.1%, which is 2.8 percentage points below its original January projection. In 2027, growth is projected to return to 4,8%. IMF estimates assume that energy production and transportation will be normalised in the next few months. It noted that the assumption could need to be revised, if the conflict continues. Bo Li, IMF Deputy Managing director said that MENA countries face unprecedented challenges and exceptional uncertainty in their outlook. "Even if production and exports are normalized by the middle of this calendar year, the MENA countries, their economies, their prospects for growth have already been severely impacted." The attacks by Iran on Gulf neighbours in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes that began 'late February' have caused major damage to energy facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, as it would normally be handling a little over 20% of global oil, and liquefied natural gas. Bo said that "for the countries most directly affected by the war, their production will remain below its pre-war trend for the near future and also the medium term." War has also caused inflationary pressures, and has clouded global economic prospects. The U.S. and Iran talks to end the conflict broke down over the weekend. SAUDI ARABIA FARING BETTER THAN OTHERS IMF said it revised GDP projections much lower for countries in the area due to decreased production and exports. It added that the degree of revision was determined by "damage to energy and transport infrastructure, as well as a country's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz as well as availability of alternate export routes." Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026. This is 1.4 percentage points less than the January estimate. However, the kingdom is expected to be less affected by war than its Gulf neighbors. Iran's economy will shrink by 6.2% in the fiscal year beginning March 21. The following year, it is expected to grow 3.2%. Prior to the war, it had been expected that Iran's economy would grow by 1.1% this fiscal year. The IMF report stated that Bahrain, Iraq Kuwait and Qatar will also see their economies contract in this year. The IMF report said that GDP growth revisions for oil and gas importers were milder. Egypt's growth, for instance, is expected to slow from 4.7% to 4.2% by 2026, but then recover to 4.8% by 2027. Staff Reporting; Editing by Edwina Ricci and Andrea Ricci
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Oil prices drop on renewed US-Iran discussions, Wall Street gains
Wall Street indexes continued to rise, oil prices fell and the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven waned Tuesday after the United States indicated that 'new peace talks' with Iran may be imminent despite the 'blockade' on Iran's port. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks in Pakistan could resume within the next two weeks after they had broken down over the weekend. Pakistani and Iranian officials said that negotiations could resume, with the agenda covering Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions as well as transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.63% to 48.522.30. The S&P 500 grew 1.11% at 6,962.85 while the Nasdaq Composite grew 1.84% at 23,611.10. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that the shift from missiles to verbal attacks in the U.S.Iran conflict has left markets hopeful for the beginning of an end to the war. The S&P 500 has returned to its pre-war level thanks to gains in large?tech stocks. Europe's STOXX 600 recovered and rose 0.99% for the day. However, it remained below its close of?February 27th the day before U.S. & Israel began their strikes against Iran. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, warned that markets are "trading in hope, not in resolution." The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook. BlackRock, the $14 trillion asset manager, reported a first-quarter profit increase that drove its stock up by 3.5%. This helped to reverse some of its losses this year. Citigroup beat first-quarter earnings estimates, and its stock rose by more than 3%. JPMorgan beat expectations as well, but its shares fell 0.6%. Dollar DIPS The Dollar Index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and other currencies, is now within striking distance from its levels in late February, having fallen 0.26% to 98.09 on Tuesday. Since the beginning of hostilities, the dollar's status as a safe haven has pushed the currency up. The dollar dropped to 97.978 in the morning session, the lowest since the first day of trading after the start of the war. The U.S. Labor Department's inflation data weighed on the dollar. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures final demand, showed a 0.5% increase last month. This was below the 1.1% rise forecast by economists. OIL BACKS DOWN Prices fell on expectations of a further dialogue to end the conflict, which outweighed worries about supply disruptions. Brent fell to $95.02 a barrel, down by 4.37% for the day. U.S. crude oil?lost 7.27% to trade at $91.88 per barrel. The benchmarks were trading at over $100 per barrel just one day before the U.S. started a blockade of Iran’s ports. This angered Tehran and added uncertainty to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In the first week in April, a Bank of America survey of global funds managers showed that investors expected oil to 'priced' at $84 per barrel by the end the year. INFLATION CONCERNS BUY TREASURY YIELDS U.S. Treasury Yields have drifted downwards, with the yield on the two-year bond down 2.6 basis points to 3.755%. The benchmark yield for the 10-year bond is 3.7 basis 'points' lower at 4.26%. The two-year Treasury yields are still nearly 40 basis points above their levels in late February, despite the fact that they usually move along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now preparing for the possibility of major central banks reversing their course and moving towards a hike in interest rates this year. (Editing by Mark Potter, Jan Harvey and Mark Potter with additional reporting by Avinash and Niket P in Bengaluru; Rae Wee and Niket Nishant in Singapore)
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Bessent criticizes IMF and World Bank forecasts; says US prices will rapidly cycle upward
U.S. Treasury secretary Scott?Bessent took issue on Tuesday with the cuts in global growth projections and the higher?inflation forecasts announced by the?International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank as a result of?the war in the Middle East. He said the institutions probably "overreacted." Bessent said that he thought the institutions had "overreacted" but that we would see. He noted that some countries, in Europe and Asia, were implementing consumer or industrial subsidies as a way to cope with supply disruptions, which could lead to persistently higher inflation. He said that he was confident the U.S. will cycle through price increases very quickly. This is unlike other countries that implement subsidies which could increase borrowings and prolong the duration of inflationary effects. IMF cut its growth forecast on Tuesday due to war-driven spikes in energy prices. The IMF offered a variety of scenarios, all including lower growth and higher rates of inflation. The IMF stated that if the conflict had not occurred, it would have increased its growth forecast by 0.1 percent to 3.4%. Bessent, despite his dismissive comments on the institutions' predictions, said that the leaders of both the IMF, and World Bank, had heard his request last year to return to their core missions, macroeconomic stability, and development and to move away from climate change. Bessent, who spoke at an event organized by the global banking trade association, the Institute of International Finance, as well as to reporters afterward, said that he believed both institutions are now more aligned with U.S. interests and priorities. He applauded World?Bank for ending a nuclear power project ban, and said that the IMF had been working closely with Treasury to bring Venezuela back into global financial system. He repeated his request that the IMF?sell its Golf Course in a Maryland Suburb of Washington. Bessent noted that Dan Katz, his former chief-of-staff, is now the IMF's No. 2 official. The IMF's No. 2 official is now Dan Katz. "I think they understand the U.S. perspective, and I believe they want to be good partners." He told reporters that there had been some inertia, and some weeding of previous programs. But he believes they are now very aligned. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Katharine and Andrea Ricci
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Administration sources claim that the US will allow waivers on Iran oil to expire
Two administration officials said on Tuesday that the Trump administration would allow a waiver of 30 days on sanctions against Iranian oil on sea to expire this week. The U.S. has imposed a blockade for shipments coming from Iranian ports. One official said that the move was a sign of "Treasury going full force on Economic Fury" against Iran. This is an apparent reference Operation Epic Fury - the U.S. led military campaign against Iran. Trump has said for years that it will apply "maximum" pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program and its support of militants in the Middle East. However, sanctioned oil continues to reach China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated last month that the waiver, which was issued by the Treasury Department 'on March 20', allowed 140 million barrels to reach global markets, and helped ease?pressure on energy during?the war against Iran. The waiver expires on April 19. The decision to not renew waivers on oil comes after lawmakers of both parties criticized the administration for temporarily easing sanctions on Tehran, and Moscow while the U.S. is at war with Iran, and Moscow is continuing its war against Ukraine. The sources also said that the U.S. did not renew its waiver for Russian oil on the sea, which expired on Saturday. One?source said that Washington can impose a variety of sanctions on institutions engaged in illicit activities such as buying Iranian oil. These include'secondary sanctions'. The person said that any interaction with Tehran would trigger additional sanctions, given the recent snapback of U.N. Sanctions on Iran and the history of Iran's attempts to conceal behind legitimate activities to "conduct illicit conduct". Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier told reporters that the U.S. Blockade of Strait of Hormuz will ensure that no Chinese or other?ships? would be allowed to pass. They won't be able to get oil. They can get their oil. Bessent added that China was buying Iranian oil at a rate of about 8% per year. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, Nia Williams and Timothy Gardner)
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Gold gains 2% as dollar weakens and hopes for US-Iran talks resume
As the U.S. Dollar weakened on Tuesday, gold prices rose 2%. Meanwhile, hopes for a resumption of?U.S.-Iran talks also helped to support prices by easing inflation fears. By 1:34 pm, spot gold had risen 2% to $4,831.78 an ounce. ET (1734 GMT). U.S. Gold futures closed 1.7% higher at 4,850.10. U.S. president Donald Trump said that talks to end the Iran War could resume in Pakistan within the next two day after the weekend's collapsed negotiations led Washington to impose an Iranian port blockade. The?direction' of the gold price will be determined by the outcome of the Pakistani talks and the progress made in the lead-up to the weekend. Bob?Haberkorn is a senior market analyst at RJO Futures. He said that if we hear positive news about Pakistan, metals are likely to continue rising. He added that "lower dollar and lower oil are helping gold right now, because when the war began, there was an rush for cash, as well as a concern over being able o accumulate energy supplies." Oil prices also fell as the dollar weakened. The weaker dollar makes the greenback price of bullion more affordable to holders of other currencies. The data showed that U.S. producers prices increased less than expected as the cost for services remained unchanged in March, but the surging energy costs due to the war with Iran were causing inflation pressures. Gold, despite its role as a hedge against inflation, becomes less attractive when rates are higher because it does not offer a yield. The traders are now pricing a 33% chance of a U.S. interest rate?cut in this year, as opposed to expectations for two cuts prior to the war. Analysts at Commerzbank stated that the price of gold is unlikely to drop much more as long as the market doesn't begin to seriously consider an increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Silver spot rose by 5.2%, to $79.48 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.3%, to $2,096.91. Palladium increased 0.7%, to $1,585.21. (Reporting and editing by Keith Weir in Bengaluru)
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Edun, a Nigerian economist, says that developing nations require more support from the IMF and World Bank
Wale Edun is the Nigerian Finance Minister, and the Chair of the G-24 coalition of developing nations. He said that multilateral institutions should do more to help vulnerable countries weather the economic shocks caused by the Middle East war. Edun stated during the briefing for the G-24 at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington that "we would like them do more. We definitely like them provide, especially at this time additional liquidity risk management instruments that lower the cost of funding." The G-24 is a group of countries that coordinates the stances taken by developing nations on issues related to monetary policy and finance for development. Edun stated that due to the cuts in development assistance, international aid and the costs of repaying debts, net financial flows are currently negative. He also said that the tightening of?financial?conditions and the increased risk aversion on capital markets as a result of the war in the Middle East, could reduce the flow private capital into emerging countries. This meant that the support from multilateral institutions is crucial for many nations. Edun announced on Monday that Nigeria will seek "stronger international financial assistance this week" as the Iran War raises fuel prices at home and complicates economic reforms. He said that it was important that government assistance for vulnerable citizens be "targeted" and "temporary". Nigeria for decades paid expensive fuel subsidies, which the current government has removed in recent years. Edun stated that it was important to avoid a return of generalized subsidies, and a relapse in policies that had not been successful. He said the developing world should focus on domestic revenue mobilization. Africa should boost its internal trade in order to counteract changes in the global trading system.
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Carney promises to reduce the cost of living for Canadians with new majority government and suspends fuel taxes
Mark Carney, the Liberal Party's newly elected parliamentary majority, said that he will focus on reducing Canada's?cost-of-living, addressing a housing shortage and building major infrastructure projects to help Canada's economic independence. Carney, whose Liberal Party won three special elections in Canada on Monday to cap off a remarkable few months, said that he accepts Canada's support with "humility, determination, and a clear comprehension of what this moment requires." Carney's first Liberal majority government in Canada since 2019, should give him more freedom to pass legislation that he believes is necessary for the country to thrive amidst "a divided and dangerous world," which includes the uncertainty created by U.S. president Donald Trump and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Carney has tried to reduce Canada's dependence on the United States. He said, "We must fundamentally change?our economy in order to become stronger, more autonomous, and more prosperous," at a press conference on Tuesday to announce a temporary suspension?of a fuel tax. He said that the measure would lower Canadians' gas prices by 10 cents a litre for regular gasoline, and by 4 cents a litre for diesel. He said that the new Canadian government was relentlessly focused to make life more affordable for Canadians. Carney's Liberals have won three special election in Ontario and Quebec. This gives him a 343 seat majority in the House of Commons. Carney said he did not plan to reshuffle his Cabinet before the summer recess of Parliament or call an early election. This was in response to criticisms from political opponents who claimed that Carney's Liberals were undermining his majority government because five legislators had recently defected to his party. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader,?took it to X to express his dissatisfaction with both the process and result. "The Carney Liberals didn't win a majority through a general or today's... by-elections." It was achieved through secret deals made with politicians who had betrayed those who voted them. Carney responded that Canada is a parliamentary democratic country and Canadians elect local representatives. Elizabeth McCallion is an assistant professor of political sciences at the University of Toronto. She said Carney made the decision to reduce the fuel tax days after the Conservatives had argued in favor of it. She said that this would make it harder for opposition parties to be antagonistic and take on the government.
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Administration sources claim that the US will allow the waiver on Iranian oil to expire
Two administration officials said on Tuesday that the Trump administration would allow a 30-day waiver on sanctions against Iranian oil at sea to expire later this week. The U.S. has imposed a blockade of shipments from Iranian port. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that the waiver issued by the Treasury Department on March 20 allowed 140 million barrels to reach the global market and relieved pressure on energy supply during the Iran war. The waiver will expire on April 19. After lawmakers of both parties criticised the administration's decision to temporarily relax sanctions on Moscow and Tehran, while Israel and the U.S. are at war with Iran, and Moscow is continuing its war against Ukraine, the move was made. One of the?U.S. officials stated that Washington has a range of?authorities?it can use against institutions who buy Iranian oil. This includes secondary?sanctions. "In addition to the snapback of U.N. "In addition, with the snapback of?U.N. sanctions on Iran and its history trying to 'hide behind seemingly legal activity?to carry out its?illicit behavior, any activity that Tehran engages in could trigger additional sanctions," said the source. Reporting by Timothy Gardner, Editing by Chris Reese
McGeever: Why $100 oil won't ruin the American consumer
Oil is expensive, especially in the U.S. where spending and driving are so prevalent. The average American consumer is better prepared than ever to cope with oil priced at $100 per barrel, despite the 'fears'.
The U.S. household is the wealthiest it has ever been in nominal terms. In'relative terms, they have never been richer. The unemployment rate is at a historic low. And, most importantly, the share of energy and gas consumption has been historically low.
It may be that U.S. equities outperformed those of their global peers after the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February sparked war in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was also one of the most severe energy supply shocks for decades.
Since then, the S&P 500 has lost 5% and Nasdaq has lost 5%. This is a big hit. More than $3 trillion has been wiped off the value U.S. stock. The pain is likely to be much worse for households and businesses in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets where benchmark indexes are down by 8-10%.
2% OF SPENDINGS ON GAS AND ENERGY
The U.S. household appears to be able to withstand oil prices at the current level. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis, gasoline and energy products represented just 2% of all consumer spending during the fourth quarter of last year. This is the lowest percentage in 80 years.
In 2008, oil reached a record high of just under $150. For comparison, in?2022, the U.S. crude price peaked at $130. The peak was around 6% between 1980 and 1981.
It is true that the current level of 2% may rise in the future if oil prices remain high for an extended period. Even then, the majority of Americans should be able handle it. Federal Reserve data from last week revealed that household balance sheets had never been stronger.
The fourth quarter of last year saw the net worth of households rise to 794%, which is the highest since early 2022. Since the 1950s, the U.S. net worth of households has been higher only three times, and all during the pandemic-distorted period 2021-22.
Inequality of Energy
The energy price increase is not a factor that only affects the Americans. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average gas price is now almost $4 per gallon. This represents a 35% increase in one month.
Energy Information Administration estimates the average price at $3.72. This is up 27% from the start of the war - and the highest since two and a quarter years.
Remember, however, that the price of gas was above $4 for six consecutive months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and reached $5 that June.
It's still important to remember the "energy inequality" that America faces. The lower-income households spend a greater percentage of their income on gasoline and energy.
Fed study from last year revealed that 1 in 5 U.S. homes are "energy burdened" - meaning their average ratio of energy expenditure to disposable income is 25 percent, compared to only 7 percent for households not experiencing this burden. These households tend to be in the lower two quintiles.
It would be political suicide for the Trump administration to attempt to portray rising energy prices in any other way than as bad news. This is especially true of a president who's approval rating is so low that the Democrats could win both houses of Congress in the November midterm elections.
There may also be more pain ahead. The cost of oil could increase across the entire economy. This includes transportation, manufacturing and other industries.
Trump has been scrambling for a drop in oil prices. He said earlier on Monday that military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants would be put on hold.
It is true that the situation is fluid, and Americans could quickly lose their resilience, particularly if oil prices continue to rise. For now, however, it seems that fears of $100 oil breaking the backs of U.S. consumers are overblown.
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(source: Reuters)