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McGeever: Why $100 oil won't ruin the American consumer

Oil is expensive, especially for Americans, who spend a lot of money and are involved in a lot of energy-intensive economic activity. The average U.S. customer is better prepared than ever to cope with oil priced at $100 per barrel, despite the fears.

The U.S. household is the wealthiest it has ever been, in nominal terms. In relative terms, they've never been any better. The unemployment rate is historically low.?And, perhaps more importantly, energy and gas account for an historically small portion of?consumption.

It may be that U.S. equities outperformed those of their global peers after the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered war in Middle East, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and one of worst energy supply shocks for decades.

Since then, the S&P 500 has lost 5% and Nasdaq has lost 5%. This is a big hit. More than $3 trillion has been wiped off the value U.S. stock. The pain is likely to be much worse for households and businesses in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets where benchmark indexes are down by 8-10%.

2% OF GAS AND ENERGY SPENDING

According to a?aggregate level, U.S. householders appear fully capable of enduring oil prices at the current levels. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis figures, gasoline and energy goods accounted for only 2% of all consumer spending during the fourth quarter of last year. This is the lowest percentage in 80 years.

In 2008, oil reached a record high of just under $150. For comparison, in 2022, when U.S. crude topped out at $130, almost 3% was spent on energy goods. The peak was around 6% between 1980 and 1981.

It is true that the current level of 2% may rise in the future if oil prices remain high for an extended period. Even then, the majority of Americans should be able handle it. Federal Reserve data from last week revealed that household balance sheets are at their strongest level ever.

The fourth quarter of last year saw a rise in household net worth to 794%, which is the highest since early 2022. Since the 1950s, the U.S. net worth of households has been higher only three times, and all during the pandemic-distorted period 2021-22.

Inequality of Energy

The energy price increase is not a problem for Americans. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average gas price is now almost $4 per gallon. This represents a 35% increase in one month.

Energy Information Administration estimates the average price at $3.72. This is up 27% from the start of the war, the highest level in the past two and a quarter years.

Remember, however, that the price of gas was above $4 for 6 months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It then hit $5 by June.

It's still important to remember the "energy inequality" that America faces. The lower-income households spend a greater percentage of their income on gasoline and energy.

Fed study from last year revealed that 1 in 5 U.S. homes are "energy burdened." This means the average ratio between energy expenditure and disposable income is 25%. These households tend to be in the lower two quintiles.

It would be a political suicide for the Trump administration to attempt to spin rising energy prices in any way other than as bad news. This is especially true of a president who's approval rating is so low that the Democrats could win both chambers of Congress in November due to midterm elections.

There may also be more pain ahead. The cost of oil could increase across the entire economy. This includes transportation, manufacturing and chemicals, plastics, fertilizer.

Trump has been scrambling for a drop in oil prices. He said earlier on Monday that military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants would be put on hold.

This is a fluid situation and Americans' resilience may quickly wane, particularly if oil prices continue to rise. For now, however, it seems that fears of $100 oil breaking the backs of U.S. consumers are overblown.

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(source: Reuters)