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Stocks fall on bets that Kevin Warsh will be Trump's Fed nominee

The dollar and bond yields soared on Friday, after U.S. president Donald?Trump announced that he had made a decision on his pick for the new Federal Reserve chief. Reports point to?Kevin?Warsh? as the most likely candidate.

Warsh is a former Fed governor who is seen to advocate lower interest rates. He is also viewed as one of the more moderate choices of all the names that were raised, and may be more conservative on the heavy monetary stimuli than other candidates.

The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell as much as 1.3%. This was the largest one-day drop in the last month.

S&P 500 futures fell?0.4%. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5%. Precious metals also plunged after a report that Warsh had visited the White House on Thursday for a meeting.

Bloomberg News reported also that the Trump Administration is preparing Warsh to be the next Fed Chair.

Warsh is on record saying that he prefers lower rates, said Damien Boey of Wilson Asset Management, Sydney. "But, the trade-off he makes for lower rates is he wants to see the Fed have a smaller balanced sheet," he added.

The markets react as if they were thinking: "What would the world be like with a smaller Fed Balance Sheet?" "

The implied probability that Trump will nominate Warsh as the new central bank chief has risen from 35% to 92% on prediction market Polymarket.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, rose 0.3% to 96.481 in recent trading, reversing recent weakness.

Tim Kelleher said, "We have definitely seen dollar buying immediately on the back of this," Tim Kelleher is head of institutional FX Sales for Commonwealth Bank Auckland. He's well-known to the market and will likely calm things down a little.

Asian stocks fell by 2.1%, led by a decline in China. A gauge of Chinese firms with Hong Kong listings was down. MSCI's broadest index of stocks outside Japan is on track to achieve its best performance monthly in over three years. The Nikkei fell 0.1% in Tokyo.

Jakarta's stocks rose 1% following the resignation of the head of Indonesian stock exchange, who took responsibility for a selloff that was triggered by an MSCI warning about a possible downgrade. This was the biggest stock crash since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998.

Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 86.6% probability?that the U.S. central bank will hold steady on rates at its next two-day meeting on March 18, compared to a 87.5% chance a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Fed funds futures indicate an implied 86.6% chance that the U.S. Central Bank will keep rates the same at its next 2-day meeting on 18 March, compared to 87.5% a day before.

After a turbulent session on Thursday, precious metals' rebound faltered. Silver fell 6% and gold was down 3.7% at $5,195.91.

Brent crude fell 1.4% to $69.70, as oil markets assessed geopolitical risk after Trump signed an executive ordering declaring a state of emergency and setting up a process for imposing tariffs on goods coming from countries who sell or supply oil to Cuba.

Trump also said on Thursday that he planned to speak to Iran in the face of rising tensions.

Bitcoin fell 2.7% to $82,089.96 while ether dropped 2.8% to $2738.30. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Sam Holmes and Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)