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Investors prepare for Fed, and stocks rise while the dollar falls

On Wednesday, the major stock indexes mainly edged up while the dollar fell as a divided Federal Reserve board faced crunch time.

Oracle's earnings were eagerly awaited after the Wall Street closing bell. This and other results may test artificial intelligence valuations that are sky high.

When the Fed announces its decision at 2 pm, it is expected that interest rates will be cut. Investors are worried about the outlook for rates next year.

How many Fed members predict that there will be one, two, or no cuts in the next year? Analysts suspect that at least two out of 12 voters may be against a easing. This would put Chair Jerome Powell into a tough position.

The policymakers are weighing the signs of a cooling labour market against inflation risks. Investors have recently reduced their expectations for rate cuts in the year 2026.

The government shutdown will further complicate matters by delaying the important November payrolls report until December 16 while the inflation figures are due two weeks later.

Eugene Epstein is the head of Trading and Structured Products at Moneycorp, New Jersey. He said that the Fed was "semi-blind" at the meeting as they didn't yet have a complete picture on the economy.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool?, the markets are pricing in an approximately 90% chance of a cut of 25 basis points. Many market participants anticipate a "hawkish" cut in which they expect the Fed to indicate that it intends?to slow or stop?the rate reduction path.

Oracle shares fell 0.8% on Wall Street while the S&P500 edged up.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 215 points or 0.45% to 47,776.05, while the S&P 500 gained 2.69 points or 0.04% to 6,843.20, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 66.29 or 0.28% to 23,510.20.

Santa Rally is the term used to describe the last two weeks of December, when the S&P 500 tends to perform better than the rest of the year. Investors are settling their accounts for the year.

MSCI's global stock index rose 0.12% or 1.18 points to 1,007.62.

The STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.07%.

Spot silver prices rose 0.6%, to $61/oz. They had hit a high of $61.61 in the previous session.

Silver prices have more than doubled in the past year due to a?dwindling of inventories and a bullish market that has attracted momentum funds.

In a recent report, the Silver Institute, an industry association, said that there is a growing demand in sectors such as solar energy, electric cars and their infrastructure and data centers?and AI.

Treasury yields in the U.S. fell ahead of Fed's announcement. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 2.5 basis points from?4.186% at late Tuesday to 4.161%.

In recent weeks, yields have risen around the world as central banks signalled that they are nearing the end of easing cycles. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is expected to raise rates next week at its policy meeting.

Investors reduced their positions in anticipation for a Fed rate reduction, erasing two days of dollar gains. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and a few other currencies, dropped 0.25% at 98.97. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.23% to $1.1652. The dollar fell 0.37% against the Japanese yen to 156.28. Caroline Valetkevitch reported from New York, and Amanda Cooper from London. Gertrude Chavez Dreyfuss and Wayne Cole contributed additional reporting in New York, Sydney, and Sydney. Alex Richardson edited the story. Alexander Smith, Mark Potter and Mark Potter).

(source: Reuters)