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Investors eye Fed rate reduction this week; US yields and dollar increase after Japan earthquake

Investors weighed the possible impact of an earthquake in Japan on the U.S. Treasury yields and the Japanese yen, while the major stock indexes dipped slightly. The northeastern region of Japan was shook by a powerful earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale, prompting tsunami alerts and evacuation orders. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF fell 0.7%. Dollar was up 0.4% last against yen. This week, the Federal Reserve will make an announcement on Wednesday. A rate cut is expected by many, but some analysts believe the Fed's Policy Committee could be divided.

Investors speculated that this meeting might be the most contentious of recent times. Since 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee had not seen three or more dissenters at a single meeting. It has only happened nine times since 1990.

Investors awaited signs of a milder cycle of easing than expected. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the expectation that the Fed would cut its policy rate 25 basis points is at 87.4%. The markets were only pricing in a 30 percent chance of a rate cut, until recent comments by Fed officials sparked a change in expectations. The market may be expecting the Fed to indicate that there will be a pause after this rate reduction in the first quarter 2026. However, I do not subscribe to that," Peter Cardillo said, chief market analyst at Spartan Capital Securities, New York.

JAPAN DELAY IN RATE DECISION? After the news of the Japanese earthquake, the dollar increased against the yen. Analysts said that depending on the extent of damage caused by the earthquake, the Bank of Japan may delay its expected rate increase next week.

The next BOJ monetary meeting is scheduled to take place on December 18-19, 2020, with the statement and policy decision expected the second day. The yield on benchmark U.S. Treasury notes. The rate rose by 4.9 basis points, to 4.188%. It had previously reached 4.19%. This was its highest level since 26 September.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 159.43, or 0.33 percent, to 47.796.26. The S&P 500 declined 21.37, or 0.30 percent, to 6,849.53, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 40.44, or 0.17% to 23,537.69. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 2.64 points or 0.26% to 1,008.09. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.11%.

Nikkei soared 90.07 points or 0.18% to 50.581.94. Beijing's diplomatic spat between Tokyo and Beijing worsened after a Chinese carrier-strike group conducted intense air operations in the vicinity of Japan at the weekend. All three central banks will meet this week, and are expected to maintain their current stance. Swiss National Bank would like to ease further to counter the strength of their franc but is already at zero percent and does not want to go below that. The markets have given up on the Reserve Bank of Australia easing again after a string of strong economic data. They even priced in a rate increase for late 2026.

Energy prices fell by 1.47% to $62.81 per barrel for U.S. crude and 1.53% for Brent. Caroline Valetkevitch reported from New York. Additional reporting was provided by Iain Withers and Wayne Cole, both in Sydney and London, and Alun Johnson in London. Joe Bavier and Aiden Lewis edited the story.

(source: Reuters)