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Stocks rise on expectations of Fed cuts, but sterling is choppy due to budget surprises

The global stock market rose for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, as expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut were unchanged. Sterling was also affected by Britain's fiscal regulator accidentally publishing new forecasts ahead of a UK Budget release.

Wall Street stocks are higher at the start of trading. Nvidia, the AI heavyweight, is leading the way, after it recovered from a drop of 2.6% in the previous session, and three consecutive declines.

The stock market has rallied since last Friday when the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December soared after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in the short term, even though other policymakers insist borrowing costs should stay the same for the time being.

These expectations were reinforced by comments made by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller supporting a December reduction.

The economic data released on Wednesday revealed that weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 6,000, to 216,000 seasonally-adjusted claims in the week ending November 22. This is the lowest level of jobless claims since April. It also falls below the estimate of 225,000 economists polled.

The economy is not in recession but it is weak enough for the Fed to make another cut. The Fed has the headroom to make more cuts because there are still many people on unemployment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 236.67 points or 0.50% to 47,349.12; the S&P 500 gained 35.19 points or 0.52% to 6,801.07; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 128.11 points or 0.56% to 23,154.97.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool the expectation of a 25 basis-point cut by the Fed is at 82.9%. This is down from 85.2% the previous session, but still well above the 30% from last week.

The U.S. market will be closed Thursday, November 22, for Thanksgiving. On Friday there will be a reduced session.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose 7.76 points or 0.78% to 998.82, and was on track for its fourth consecutive session of gains. This is its longest streak of gains in a month. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.97%, and is on pace for its largest daily percentage gain since two weeks.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket) fell by 0.2%, reaching 99.65. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.17%, hitting $1.159.

The sterling strengthened by 0.43%, to $1.3223. Currency fluctuated between 0.5% and 0.11% in response to the UK budget confusion, as the Office for Budget Responsibility released its Economic and Fiscal Outlook early.

The British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced an ambitious tax hike budget, which will raise more money from employees, pensioners and investors in order to achieve her deficit reduction targets.

The yield on ten-year gilts was last down by 7.1 basis points to 4.424%.

The Japanese yen fell 0.27% to 156.48 dollars per dollar, even though sources said the Bank of Japan was preparing the markets for an interest rate hike that could happen as early as next month. It may be necessary to adopt a more consistent path of rate hikes to change the currency's trajectory.

After four sessions of declines, the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes increased by 1.5 basis points at 4,017%. This was after data showed that new orders of key capital goods manufactured in the United States surged and that shipments of this goods also increased. Data had been delayed because of the prolonged government shutdown.

(source: Reuters)