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S&P says El Nino is unlikely to affect ratings for the time being
One of S&P Global’s top analysts said that El Nino will not 'by itself' lead to sovereign ratings downgrades, unless it is significantly worse than expected and governments take costly measures to support the affected countries. Joydeep Mukherji is S&P's Latin America lead ratings analyst. She said that the rating impact would be determined by the severity of the droughts and flooding caused by a potential "super" El Nino, as well as how policymakers handle the fallout. Mukherji stated in an interview that "if it's a flood or a dry spell that disrupts economic activity, then you assume?it will pick up within six months, twelve months." If that's the only thing that happens, ratings should be able?to withstand that kind of stress." The key factor is more likely to be the response of the governments in the hardest-hit countries. Mukherji stated, "If there is a small fiscal intervention to help those affected by the crisis, then that's a good thing." However, broader measures like a control on fuel or electricity prices could increase fiscal pressures. He said: "Suddenly, you've got a fiscal issue on the side. Not just the disruptions caused by natural disasters." The government faces a difficult choice: either they allow a part of the cost to be borne by businesses and households, or they take on a greater share through increased public spending, larger deficits, and more borrowing. He said that policy response was key. "Do governments share or spare the costs or do they take it all on themselves in their balance sheet by increasing deficits and debt?" He said that countries with flexible exchange rate may be better able to absorb weather-related shocks. As examples, he cited Colombia and Peru as two countries where economic impacts could be "substantial". The 'political tools' available to maintain competitiveness in a country without its own currency, such as Ecuador with the dollar, are fewer. S&P does not expect El Nino will trigger a negative rating wave. He warned that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of the phenomenon.
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EU: Wildfires moving east threaten Italy and Greece
Greece, Italy and Central Europe will face increased 'wildfire' risk in the next few weeks. This is despite the fact that wildfires are still raging in Spain and France. Maria Zuber, the head of EU's Emergency Response Coordination Centre said that the heatwave would make the next few days "very difficult" for France. She also warned other countries to prepare themselves for "imminent disasters". Zuber told reporters that the next danger was already moving towards Greece and Central Europe. "Greece was spared for the moment, but now we know that it is going to Greece. "Italy faces risk at the start of August. We will need to see what will happen with the Iberian Peninsula because if it is there too, we'll have all Europe on blaze," she said. The forecast includes weather conditions that can help fires spread quickly, including high temperatures, dry, windy air and lack of rain. Climate change intensifies the hot and?dry conditions, which allow wildfires spread more quickly. Last year, Europe experienced its worst wildfires season ever. More than a million acres of land were burned. Zuber stated that Europe's fire situation so far this year was similar. She said, "We could be on the verge of another record." The EU centre coordinates?the deployment of aircraft and firefighters in countries that need emergency assistance, utilizing?resources pooled and rented by European countries. The EU centre has sent seven planes, four 'helicopters' and three 'ground firefighting teams to Spain and France. Zuber explained that not all aircraft in the EU fleet were currently in use. Some of them are already pre-stationed to be ready for deployment in Eastern and Central Europe, where the threat is increasing. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams; Kate Abnett)
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"There's nothing Left": French wildfire victims return to their burned homes
Raphael Fohanno was shocked to see that his parents' house was reduced to a smouldering cinder. The 18-year old said: "Right here was the livingroom; the sofa was in the corner, the TV, a coffee-table, a vase and the printer. Everything was there." She was looking at the charred wood and mangled steel of the home that the family had lived in for the past seven years. It's brutal. The worst part is feeling helpless. "It's horrible for me to think that I can't help with anything, not even my pets." His parents, sister and other family members were evacuated via helicopter while he was out. His parents have returned to Biscarrosse already to check on the damage. "It is a shock, to think that only an hour ago I was in my bedroom and had everything, and now there's nothing." Fohanno said, "It's really sad." MEMORIES FUMED UP IN SMOKE A fire that started on Thursday began last week in Biscarrosse. The town has a population of 14,000 and is located 40 km south of the Cap Ferret peninsula. Residents have slowly been allowed to return to certain neighbourhoods after being evacuated. This included a children's camp and an aged care home. France is experiencing a wildfire season unlike any other. Around 220,000 people have been forced to leave their homes, in what President Emmanuel Macron called the worst wildfire crisis in France since World War Two. The temperatures will rise on Wednesday and create more volatile conditions. On Tuesday, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez stated on X that it took 550 firemen and 450 officers to put out the Biscarrosse blaze. Beatrice Dubaquier discovered that her house had been destroyed when she returned to it on Sunday evening. Her family searched through the debris and found broken pieces of crockery. A mug had been given to her as a gift for a birthday, a dish was given to her and 'her husband at their wedding. Dubaquier described her emotions as being on a rollercoaster. Lucie, her daughter, recalled her younger sister's first steps and first words in the home. Lucie said, "It was pretty difficult to see all those memories burn up." (Written by Elizabeth Howcroft, edited by Gabriel Stargardter & Alison Williams).
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Profit growth for the Morning Bid AMERICAS - US
What's important in the U.S. and international markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of?Finance and Markets As a stark example of how difficult it is for Big 'Tech to impress the markets, South Korean chip maker SK Hynix fell again on Wednesday morning after a six-fold increase in quarterly profits?missed expectations. This is a warning before the?release of U.S. megacaps earnings later today. The markets will first digest Kevin Warsh's comments and the Federal Reserve Chair's policy announcement as he speaks on the podium today. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my midweek column where I discuss hyperscalers' cash burn, the new British Prime Minister's poll surge and whether the Ukraine war and the Iran war could converge. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. US PROFIT GROWTH MUSHROOMS SK Hynix plunged nearly 10% in the early hours of Wednesday, dragging down the chip-heavy KOSPI by as much as 12,6%. Index pared losses and closed down 6%. It is now at levels seen last in early April. Samsung will also report this week. The tremors in South Korea have created a more tense environment for investors, as they await Microsoft and Meta's earnings after the bell today. Alphabet, Tesla and other companies have raised alarms with their AI capex. Investors will be watching closely for cash burn and leverage. According to LSEG, the 'overall U.S. earning picture is still a ballooning one. Estimates for the annual aggregate S&P500 profit growth through the 2nd quarter are now a whopping 39 percent - which is more than 10 points above estimates made at the beginning of the month. But before we move on to earnings, the Fed's decision is one of the most uncertain in recent years. Deutsche Bank says that the market is split by a one in three chance of an increase in interest rates, which has been priced into futures. This is the highest level of uncertainty the market has seen before a Fed meeting. The Fed's hopes for a more clear picture of the energy markets after this week’s drop in oil prices were dashed overnight when the tension in the Iran conflict broke. The global crude price rose to over $87 per barrel. Washington announced on Tuesday it had carried out strikes in Iraq with Saudi Arabia against groups aligned to Iran, and intercepted Iranian rockets launched at U.S. bases. Chart of the Day Despite a surge in corporate profits and optimism over AI spending by U.S. companies, U.S. consumer sentiment is still relatively low. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 last month, contrary to expectations of economists. This month's high energy prices played a role, but also the percentage of consumers who viewed jobs as "plentiful". It has fallen to its lowest level since Febuary 2021. Watch today's events * Fed announcement of interest rate (2 p.m. ET) and press conference at 2:30 p.m. * U.S.?corporate earnings Meta, Microsoft * U.S. 2-year floating rate note auction (11:30 ?a.m. EDT) Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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Valterra profits soar on rising prices as AI drives future platinum demand
?Valterra Platinum, a South African miner, expects that?AI --?and data centres needed to drive it -- will propel demand for Platinum Group Metals (PGM), said CEO Craig Miller on Wednesday. The company had reported a 17 fold increase in its half-year profits. Valterra, world's largest platinum producer in terms of value, has reported headline earnings per shares of 82.02 Rand ($4.9) in the six-month period ending June 30. This is up from 4,73 rand?a year ago, mainly due to an 85% increase in metal prices and an 18% rise in sales volume. Electric vehicles, which do not need to control emissions, are threatening the future of PGMs. The recent massive growth of AI has created a new growth path. AI-DRIVEN DEMAND FOR PGM Valterra believes that there will be a?potential demand for PGM of 10 million ounces per year in industrial applications, jewelry, the growth of Hydrogen as a source of clean energy as well as supporting AI technology. Miller said in an interview that there is a real demand of about 2 million ounces. "We are actively working with a high level of confidence to meet this demand," Miller stated. "AI wasn't necessarily on our radar 24 month ago." What 'we are seeing, however, is that PGM is being used in AI-related activities, and we estimate the demand to be between 200,000 to 400,000 ounces. Miller stated that the demand for PGMs based on AI could increase by as much as five times by 2030. For the fourth consecutive year, global platinum supply is expected to be less than demand, with about 7 million ounces. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, PGMs are a good choice for the AI industry because of their exceptional electrical, thermal, and catalytic qualities. Miller stated that PGMs can also replace about 10% of gold used for electroplating, and other electronic applications. This could create a demand for a further 1 million ounces PGMs per year. Valterra announced that it would pay an interim dividend per share of 57 rand, up from 2 rand, representing a payout ratio of 70%. This represents a return to shareholders of 15.1 billion rand.
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Aluminium and copper rise on Gulf war, but copper falls ahead of Fed rate announcement
Copper fell on Wednesday, as traders remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement later that day. They also looked for signs of an easing of supply constraints in China, the world's largest consumer. Aluminium rose due to renewed fighting in Middle East. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to $13,631 per metric ton at 1002 GMT. However, it held above the moving average of 50 days, which provided support at $13,576. Investors remained on the sidelines as the Fed made its decision. The markets are pricing in roughly 30% of a 25 basis-point increase. The strong dollar makes metals priced in dollars more expensive to buyers who use other currencies. Meanwhile, the expectation of rising rates dampens demand for growth-dependent metals. The 'Asian stock market' extended the sell-off caused by 'concerns about AI valuations. This added further pressure to copper and zinc. Yangshan Copper Premium The, which measures interest in importing steel to China, has stabilised at $112 per ton. This is a decrease from a week earlier, when the metric reached $115. It was its highest level since November 2022. Copper stocks available on the LME The number of tonnes has risen to 101,975 as 975 tonne were returned on warrant at the LME registered warehouses in Taiwan. After a heavy cancellation of?contracts earlier in the month, the available stocks are still at their lowest level since January. The premium for the LME cash copper contract over the three-month forward contract is also unchanged. At the beginning of July, we offered a discount of $49. Aluminium prices rose sharply to $3,176 per ton on the LME as tensions in Middle East escalated, causing concern about metal supply from the Gulf and a rise in oil prices. Available LME aluminium ?stocks The metal market is at a 16 month low of 245,350 tonnes, and is dominated by Russian-made material, which many traders try to avoid. LME zinc fell 0.1% to $3.572, while lead increased 0.8% to $1.909, and tin and Nickel rose 1.2%, respectively, to $54,180, and $17.175. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Additional reporting by Solomon Cefai)
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Palm oil prices rise on bargain-buying, and crude oil is rebounding
Malaysian palm futures ended higher on Wednesday. This was due to bargain-buying following a two session decline and a recovery in crude oil prices. The benchmark contract for?October?delivery at the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 21 ringgit or 0.45% to 4,663 Ringgit ($1,140.93). It had lost 1.67% over the two previous sessions. Anilkumar bagani, commodity research director at Sunvin Group, explained that crude palm oil futures rose on the back of bargain-buying due to a rebound in prices for energy and some good palm?oil coverage from India. He said that the optimistic increase in palm oil exports from Malaysia this month has cushioned the prices. Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil Products for the period July 1-25 increased between 8.1% to 15.9%, according to cargo surveyors. Bagani said that the lack of Indonesian B50 biodiesel allocations and higher production estimates for July 1-20 capped gains. Oil prices rose more than 3% after tensions escalated in the Middle East following U.S., Saudi and Iranian strikes on U.S. forces and intercepted Iranian missile attacks. Palm oil is more appealing as a biodiesel feedstock because crude oil futures are stronger. Dalian's palm oil contract increased by 0.64%, while the most active soyoil contract dropped by 0.23%. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose by 0.04%. As it competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, palm oil closely tracks the price fluctuations of rival edible oils. The ringgit (palm's currency) has risen 0.05% in value against the dollar. This makes the commodity slightly more expensive for foreign buyers. The European Union soybean imports, which began in July, were 0.56 million metric tons by July 26. This was down 39% compared to a year ago. Palm oil imports also fell 39%, from 0.13 million tonnes, according to data provided by the European Commission.
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Cenovus increases its annual production forecast on the strength of oil sands performance
Cenovus Energy increased?its production outlook for 2026 on Wednesday.?This was after reporting an increase in quarterly profit, as higher?oil price sands output and record oil prices helped boost earnings. The Canadian oil producer increased its full-year upstream production forecast by 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to between ?970,000 and 1.01 million boepd, citing stronger-than-expected performance across ?its oil sands assets and optimized turnaround activity. Cenovus and other integrated oil companies are benefiting from the global fuel market that has been impacted by the Iran War. The war has slowed down supply, pushed up prices, and increased earnings for both production and refinement. The company reported that its total upstream output was 970.400 barrels equivalent per day (boepd), up from 765.900 boepd a?year earlier. This is due to the MEG?Energy?acquisitions and growth projects in Christina Lake, Foster Creek, and Sunrise. Calgary-based MEG Energy's net profit grew to C$2.87 Billion ($2.04 Billion) or C$1.53 a share in the second quarter. This was up from C$851 Million ($603.67?million), 45 Canadian cents a share, one year ago.
Investors wary of Fed independence; Asia stocks outpace Nvidia
The Asian stock market was steady on Wednesday, ahead of a report on earnings from AI leader Nvidia. This will influence the risk sentiment in the near term. Meanwhile, investors were still nervous over attacks on Federal Reserve independence.
The U.S. Treasury curve has steepened since President Donald Trump ordered the firing on Monday of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This unprecedented move could lead to a tussle in court after Cook's lawyer said that she would file a suit to stop it.
The Fed has stated that it will abide any court decision made on Lisa Cook, but in reality the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place," said Prashant Nnewnaha senior Asia-Pacific rates analyst at TD Securities.
If Cook continues to serve after Trump's dismissal and before the court's ruling, "if the court rules in favor of Trump" then Chair (Jerome) Powell could be fired because he allowed a non Fed employee to make Fed Board decisions.
The yield curve steepened as shorter-dated yields dropped more than those longer-dated. Early Asian hours saw the yield of the two-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations for interest rates, reach its lowest level since May, at 3.654%. The 30-year bond yield was only 1.5 basis points higher, at 4.923%.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell and policymakers who have not cut interest rates. Market watchers took Powell's comments from last week to mean that interest rates could be cut.
Investors are betting on a reduction next month. Traders have priced in an 84% probability of a Fed move in September, and expect more than 100 basis points of easing in June.
Newnaha said that the markets are anticipating a scenario in which Trump has a majority on the Board of Governors, setting the stage for the cuts to be made sooner and possibly faster.
The dollar dropped sharply after Trump's comments, but it stayed near its lows. The euro was last trading at $1.1636 while the yen remained steady at 147.6 per dollar.
Investors are more focused on the September rate movement and what it means. Ben Bennett, APAC Investment Strategist at Legal and General Investment Management, said that the hope was that a rate reduction would still be on the cards if the labour market did not deteriorate sharply.
This could maintain a very positive investor sentiment. The Nvidia results tonight will be also important for the direction of markets in the near term."
Options traders have priced in a swing of $260 billion in Nvidia’s market value following the company's earnings report, when its business in China is the focus after an unusual profit sharing deal with the Trump Administration.
The fate of Nvidia’s China business depends on the outcome of tariff negotiations and trade restrictions between the two world's largest economies.
This has made traders cautious about placing large bets. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan was up only 0.2%. Japan's Nikkei remained unchanged and shares in Taiwan rose 0.6%.
Blue-chip stocks in China gained 0.3% and hovered near the three-year-high reached earlier this week. The tech sector has been a major factor in the recent rise of China's stocks.
Spot gold fell 0.23% in commodities after reaching a two-week peak the previous session.
The oil price was little changed from the previous session as traders awaited the imposition of massive new U.S. import tariffs against India, the third largest crude consumer in the world, in response to India purchasing Russian oil.
(source: Reuters)