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South Africa's leading banks pass the first climate stress test, but data gaps are identified
The six South African systematically important banks that are deemed to be the most significant passed the first climate-risk stress tests of the central bank. However, the exercise revealed some modelling shortcomings as the institutions had not fully incorporated climate-risk indicators in their frameworks. Losses on the long-term could be hidden by gaps. The central bank releases a bi-annual review of the financial system every two years. The latest edition of the review was released on Friday. Six banks, Absa Capitec FirstRand Investec Nedbank Standard Bank of South Africa Standard Bank of South Africa used the climate-scenario models from the Network for Greening the Financial System to model possible losses on climate-sensitive loan. The NGFS (Global Group of Financial Supervisors) is a global alliance of central banks. Around one-third (33%) of the bank books are in the sectors most vulnerable to climate change, namely real estate lending, household loans and transport. Vafa Avari, the division head of the Financial Stability Department's macro financial vulnerability section said that it was difficult to give general recommendations because each organization faced different challenges. We were comfortable with their plans to close the gap in the next two years. In that context, it was very insightful. "This was the first exercise in South Africa of this kind. You expect to shake the tree and see what comes out." Earlier this month torrential rains and gale-force winds inundated South Africa's Eastern Cape province, triggering property and business-interruption claims.
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The European Union is prioritizing rare earth access at the China summit
Four sources familiar with plans say that European Union leaders are planning to use their summit with China in the coming month to push for better access to Chinese minerals and rare earths. The two sides will also be tackling a range of tariff issues. China has held a near-monopoly in rare earth production for years. After the announcement of tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump on April 2, China increased its export controls for the minerals in response to demand from automakers and the defence industry, as well as producers of renewable energies. China has also complained to the EU, as the EU has tried to protect the auto industry from cheap imports from China. Meanwhile, China has taken measures against the brandy industry in France. The European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen, and the European Council's Antonio Costa will be traveling to Beijing on July 24-25 for a summit. The event will mark 50 years of EU and Chinese relations. It will also be held two weeks after the deadline set by United States to most trade partners for them to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs. According to an EU official who declined to identify himself, European leaders will press their case in separate meetings with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and other Chinese officials. According to two EU sources, the EU mission in China will focus solely on rare earths up until the summit. In May, the Chinese ministry of commerce announced that a "green-channel" had been established to expedite rare earth licenses for EU companies. One EU diplomat, however, said that only half of the several hundred applications had been processed. The situation is improving although the percentage cleared licenses does vary. Adam Dunnett said that delays in clearance of customs can occur even after the license is granted. Trade conflicts between Europe, China and the quest to solve supply shortage are among them. China has responded by imposing anti-dumping measures against EU brandy after Brussels imposed tariffs for unfair subsidies on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing has launched trade investigations into EU dairy products and pork. BRUXELS NOT BEIJING The run-up to this summit has been a bit rocky. Beijing had been the original host, but when China said that Xi wouldn't travel to Brussels, Beijing was selected. One EU official commented that China "played its cards very effectively". China, according to the official, had identified rare Earths as a vulnerability and waited until the very last minute before making any concessions. The EU wants China either to extend the period of rare earth licenses or scrap them to export to the EU. Beijing should make a clear distinction between the EU, the United States and any other country. During talks in London, earlier this month, China offered to give U.S. companies priority for rare earth export licenses. "If China wants to have the EU at the same distance as the Trump administration, China’s trade regimes can't equate the U.S. with Europe," said Hosuk Le-Makiyama of the trade think tank ECIPE. He met senior Chinese officials in the past week. A second EU official stated that the impending deadline for securing an agreement with the United States could force the EU into being tough on China in return for lowering U.S. Tariffs. This would make it difficult for EU to negotiate a deal with Beijing. Officials said that it was possible for the deadline of July 9 to be delayed or details of any U.S. agreement could come out later, which would limit the chances of EU progress in China. China has asked the EU to replace the import tariffs it imposed on Chinese electric cars with minimum price commitments, and make other concessions. This is after the EU delayed the imposition on EU brandy. China says the talks are nearing their end, while EU officials claim that progress has been minimal.
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Denmark will push for Ukraine to join the EU during its presidency
Denmark will continue to prepare Ukraine for EU Membership in spite of Hungary blocking the negotiations when it takes over the Presidency of the European Council on July 1. This was announced by the European Affairs Minister of Denmark. Marie Bjerre, European Affairs Minister at a Copenhagen press conference said: "Unfortunately Hungary is blocking. We are trying to exert as much pressure as possible on Hungary and do all we can to ensure that Ukraine continues with necessary reforms." Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has Strongly opposed Providing NATO military and EU assistance to Ukraine while claiming that the country's EU Membership would destroy Hungarian farmers The wider economy Ukraine has already taken the necessary steps Reforms The negotiations will be accelerated. Bjerre stated that "when we reach the point where we are able to open the specific chapters of negotiation, we will be ready to close these very quickly." Denmark will also try to reach an agreement with EU nations regarding the planned climate goals for 2040. The European Commission intends to propose, in July, a legally-binding target of reducing EU country emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. Faced with Pushback Brussels is not a government, but a federation of governments Assessing options The target set for domestic industry can be lowered, and international carbon credits used to close the gap up to 90%.
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Putin hosts Indonesian Prabowo to Russia as part of a bid to strengthen ties
On Thursday, the Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at St Petersburg in northern Russia. They discussed ways to strengthen what some officials called a growing strategic partnership. Some powers, such as Australia, have been disturbed by the deepening of relations between Russia and Indonesia. This is part of Moscow’s attempt to establish new relationships with the Global South, amid Western attempts at isolating it due to the Ukraine War. Putin, who met with the Indonesian delegation at the Constantine Palace in Moscow, noted that Indonesia had joined BRICS and was certain it would have a major impact on the grouping. Prabowo expressed his gratitude to Putin for his support in Indonesia's membership of BRICS, and noted that relations between the two countries are improving. In a speech in Moscow this week, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and Sugiono from Indonesia, spoke of a potential strategic partnership between their two countries. Russia proposes to deepen military, security and trade ties, as well as nuclear ties, with Indonesia. Indonesia has the fourth-largest population in the world. Prabowo visited Russia before in August 2024 when he served as defence minister and President-elect. He described Moscow as "a great friend" and expressed his hope for stronger collaboration on defence, education, and energy. Indonesia announced that it plans to build a 500 MW nuclear power plant in 2032. It hopes to have it online within the next decade. The authorities said that developers interested in the project included Russia's Rosatom and China CNNC as well as NuScale, a U.S. manufacturer of small modular reactors. Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, relies primarily on coal for power, despite having a massive potential in renewable energy sources like hydro, solar, and geothermal. Indonesia, anticipating a high demand for energy in the future and aiming to reduce carbon emissions while increasing power generation, is looking at nuclear power as a solution. Prabowo, Indonesia's foreign minister, has maintained Indonesian non-aligned policy and pledged to befriend any country including Russia and the United States. He said that Indonesia would not join any military alliance. China is Indonesia's biggest trading partner. However, Prabowo recently announced a number of concessions to trade with the U.S. in an effort to counter the effects of tariffs. Russia has praised Indonesia for its 'balanced position' on the Ukraine conflict. Last November, Russia and Indonesia held their first joint maritime exercises in the Java Sea. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge from St Petersburg, Russia and Stanley Widianto, Gibran Peshimam and Mark Trevelyan in Jakarta
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China's imports of iron ore are rising even as steel is struggling: Russell
China's imports of iron ore are expected to be their highest month in this year in June, a sign of resilience not reflected in the steel industry's sluggishness. According to analysts LSEG & Kpler, China is expected to import nearly 110 million metric tonnes of this key raw material for steel. Kpler estimates that 109.56 millions tons of cargo will arrive in June, while LSEG predicts 109.1million. It would be the highest month ever since December, when 112.49 millions tons was recorded as the second-highest monthly imports. Why are Chinese steel mills, traders and steel producers buying more iron ore despite the fact that both domestic and international headwinds are causing the steel industry to slow down? Early in June, spot iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in eight months. Since the peak of $107.81 per ton in 2025 on February 12, the trend for iron ore futures at the Singapore Exchange has been downward. On June 18, they dropped to $94.17 per ton, the lowest level since September 30, before slightly recovering to finish at $94.30 a ton Wednesday. It's too late for the low of June to affect imports in this month. The lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered is too great. However, it's important to note that the Singapore price continues to drop steadily from its previous peak at the end of May. Restocking inventories may also have contributed to the higher imports of June. These stocks have been on a downward trend. SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles In the week ending June 6, exports fell to their lowest level in 16 months, at 132 million tonnes. The strong imports so far in this month helped boost inventories to a total of 133.4 million tonnes in the week ending June 13. However, this is still below the 146.6 millions from the same period in 2024. Iron ore imports may continue to grow in the coming weeks but there are questions about how long they can do so if the steel industry is weak. STEEL SAGS According to data released by the Chinese government on June 16, China's steel production dropped dramatically in May, falling 6.9% from last year to 85.55 millions tons. In the first five month of this year, steel production fell 1.7% to 431.63 million tons. The state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said last week that the output was expected to drop 4% from 2024 this year. China's steel production is being affected by the struggles of its key property sector. This sector has shown little signs of improvement since the recent stimulus measures. China's new house prices dropped 0.2% in May, after showing no growth during the preceding month. Calculations based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 16 June were able to confirm this. The latest statement from Donald Trump suggests that up to 55% of all imports will be taxed. The price of steel has also fallen. On Wednesday, Shanghai Exchange rebar contract prices ended at 2,982 Yuan ($414.74) per ton, down 14% since the year's peak, which was 3,466 Yuan on February 5. On June 3, the contract dropped to 2,912 Yuan per ton, its lowest level since February 2020. Exports grew almost 10% on an annual basis in May, to 10,58 million tons. Steel exports for the first five month of the year rose by 8.9%, to 48.47 millions tons. This is a record. China's steel exports may be a victim of its own success, as other countries increase their protectionist measures. India and the United States are two recent examples. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Dollar up, stocks down as Middle East War sparks safe-haven trade
The dollar rose and global stocks fell on Thursday as investors sought perceived safe havens amid growing concerns about possible U.S. participation in the Israel-Iran war air battle, which has fueled a rise in oil prices this week. Donald Trump, on the geopolitical side, kept the world guessing as to whether the United States will join Israel in its bombardment of Iranian nukes sites. He told reporters outside the White House, "I may do this." I may or may not do it." Central bankers have been forced to make a flurry decisions as a result of Trump's unpredictable approach on trade and tariffs. This has made it difficult for them to set monetary policy. The STOXX 600 index fell a third time in Europe on Friday, bringing its weekly decline to nearly 2.5%, the biggest since the tariff-induced turmoil that erupted in April. U.S. S&P futures dropped 0.5%, despite the fact that most U.S. market will be closed for a holiday on Thursday. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said, "Market participants are still tense and uncertain." He added that speculation was rampant "that the U.S. would intervene. This would be a material escalation, and could invite direct retaliation by Iran against the U.S." This scenario could lead to a larger regional conflict with consequences for the global energy supply, and possibly economic growth. The Middle East crude supply shocks have been the main cause of recent market anxiety. They've driven crude oil prices up 11% in one week. Brent crude prices rose as much as 1%, to $77.40 per barrel. This is close to their highest level since January. Gold, which usually struggles when the dollar increases, has pared its earlier losses and is now trading at $3372 per ounce, an increase of 0.1% for the day. The dollar rose, but the euro fell by 0.1% to $1.1466. Australian and New Zealand Dollars, both risk-linked currency, were down by 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively. CENTRAL BANK POLICY The Federal Reserve sent mixed signals to the markets overnight. Trump was not pleased that policymakers kept rates as they were and maintained projections of two quarter-point cuts this year. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, was cautious about future easing, saying in his press conference that Trump's aggressive tariffs will lead to "meaningful" increases in inflation. MUFG strategists said that the Fed is "underestimating the weaknesses in the economy which were present before the shock of the tariffs, and specifically, ignoring the cracks in the labor markets that have been evident for years". As expected, the Bank of England kept UK rates the same. Policymakers also said that trade policy uncertainty will continue to harm the economy and cause a fall in the pound. Norges Bank The surprise quarter-point cut on the crown currency weighed heavily on the markets, while The Swiss National Bank reduced interest rates to zero as expected. However, the fact that it did not drop below zero gave the Swiss Franc a boost, and the dollar fell by 0.1%, at 0.8184 Swiss francs. Commodity markets are a great place to find out about the latest trends. Price of Platinum Nearly $1,300 per ounce was the highest price in nearly 11 years. Analysts said that consumers were looking for a cheaper gold alternative.
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Israel claims it has struck Bushehr and other nuclear sites on the Gulf Coast
A spokesperson for the Israeli military said that on Thursday, they had hit nuclear sites in Bushehr and Isfahan and Natanz and continued to target additional facilities. It was not immediately apparent the extent of Israel's assault on Bushehr. Bushehr, Iran's sole nuclear power plant, is located on the Gulf Coast and uses Russian fuel, which Russia takes back after it has been used to reduce the proliferation risk. Gulf States have been concerned about the potential effects of an attack, which could include contamination of air and water. Sources familiar with the issue said that Gulf countries are preparing themselves for the worst possible scenario. Sources said that Gulf countries had, in collaboration with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog, prepared a contingency for any attack against any nuclear plant in this region. In a statement released earlier Thursday, the Russian Embassy in Iran stated that Bushehr is operating normally and it does not perceive any security threats. Qatar's Prime Minister warned in March that an attack against Iran's nuclear facility would "entirely pollute" the Gulf waters and endanger life in Qatar and the UAE. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites will leave the Gulf without "water, fish, anything... no living". Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait are facing Iran across the Gulf. They have very little natural water resources and rely on desalinated Gulf water to provide potable drinking water for their 18 million residents. Reporting by Jana Choukeir in Dubai, Pesha Magd in Riyadh, and Steven Scheer at Jerusalem. Writing by Andrew Mills. Editing by Alison Williams and Aidan Lewis.
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Mining and warming waters are threatening Chile's underwater forests
Underwater forests teem with life in the icy waters off Chile's northern coast. Red and green towers of seaweed rise from the ocean floor. They provide food for wildlife and income for the locals, as well as oxygen and carbon for the planet. Scientists believe that these forests have even greater potential for sustainable food, protein and other materials, despite the fact that they are threatened due to human pollution and warming oceans. "They form a band along the coastal edge, which is essentially an armour of protection and biodiversity," said Alejandra González, a marine scientist from the University of Chile, who specializes on marine ecosystem conservation. She explained that seaweed captures CO2 and produces oxygen, creating important carbon storage under the waves. She said that seaweed is the future of our planet. These forests are being under increasing pressure around the world. A British Natural History Museum report in May stated that kelp forest declines at a rate four times greater than rainforests and twice as fast as coral reefs. Maria Jose Espinoza is the leader of the local Changa community. She said, "Before this, these areas were rich in seaweeds, seafood and fish. Things that most people live off of in this town, from seaweed collection." Changas have been harvesting seaweeds from the forest for many generations. However, they are concerned about the shrinking forests. Espinoza attributed the harm to coastal environments caused by tailings from mining in the nearby copper- and lithium rich Atacama Desert, as well desalination facilities being developed by miner. Chile is the second largest producer of lithium and the top copper producer in the world. The majority of mining activities are located in the north. Roberto Carlos Chango and his son, a diver who went out to collect shellfish with him, both agreed on the importance seaweed forests. Seaweeds are important to all animals because they provide food. He said that without seaweeds there would be no shellfish or fish. Sergio Gutierrez is a Changa harvester of seaweed who gathers the algae and bundles it for sale. He said that the marine forests are a vital part of the local community. He said, "They provide the basis for our livelihood and so much more." Marine biologist Gonzalez believes that more policies are needed to protect underwater forests, given the many benefits they provide for the community and the environment. Gonzalez stated that "all marine organisms related to (the forests), as well as humans, depend on their survival." These forests keep temperatures stable, they create a breakwater effect and maintain the ecosystem. Reporting by Rodrigo Gutierrez, Paposo. Writing by Alexander Villegas. Editing by Adam Jourdan & Sandra Maler.
Mike Dolan: A weak dollar can soften the impact of any oil shock on Europe.
Oil-importing nations will not be able to avoid a blow in the event of a second energy price shock due to Middle East tensions. However, a rare period of dollar weakness can help soften the blow for other countries.
The majority of crude oil prices are in U.S. Dollars, so the impact on regions such as Europe is magnified when the price increases during times of dollar strength. The dollar's decline has actually had the opposite impact, reducing the price of oil as a result of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
We're not in a'shock zone' yet, but we are still a long way from it. The dollar-based price of global crude oil has risen by about 14% in the last week. However, they are still well below their January peak and about 7% less than a year ago.
The impact on Europe has been more benign, thanks to the euro's 12% increase against the dollar this year.
The euro price for Brent crude has fallen by 20% in the last year and is down 12% this year. The greenback's fall is a welcome respite for oil-importing countries, as it helps to soften the blow of soaring oil costs and limit the economic impact.
If the dollar continues to fall, this could reduce the relative impact of any new energy price hikes on Europe. This could, in turn support Europe's performance against the United States in this year, and further undermine the American exceptionalism narrative that has fuelled extraordinary portfolio flows into the U.S. over the past few years.
The continued dollar weakness, coupled with a new drop in energy prices, would only increase pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates. This is to avoid a significant undershoot to its 2% inflation goal.
INCREASINGLY INSTABLE According to UniCredit's Keller the dollar/oil relationship is another example of an economic relationship that has become, "increasingly instabile" this year.
The dollar's correlation to stocks, bonds, and commodities has changed as foreign investors who have trillions invested in U.S. bonds and stocks began re-evaluating their dollar exposure due to America's trade conflicts, reworked alliances, and upended institutions.
The dollar's loss of its'safe-haven' status in times of stress and uncertainty is most obvious. It fell along with stocks and bonds, during an April that was turbulent.
The link between the dollar and oil has become especially unstable.
A stronger dollar, all else being equal should lower oil prices because it will reduce demand from non-Americans around the globe due to the additional local currency costs of a barrel. The opposite, theoretically, should also be true.
In recent years the opposite was true. A spike in oil price after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered inflation, and steep Federal Reserve rate increases. This was followed by a subsequent drop in oil and inflation, and the start of a Fed easing program.
The dollar's movement was closely correlated with the energy price during that period. The dollar index soared by 20% when the oil prices doubled between the mid-2021 and immediate aftermath of the Ukraine Invasion. This amplify the rising costs of energy for Europe.
This relationship was broken again after the U.S. elections last year, when the dollar rose initially even though oil prices were falling.
The dollar hasn't strengthened as much this month, despite the fact that the correlation was positive after January. This is because the rise in crude oil prices after the Israel/Iran conflict broke out did not coincide with the strengthening of the dollar. The greenback is still hovering near new lows.
Relationships are influenced by the background, of course. The primary concern at the moment is that after a decade-long dollar strength, a multiyear unwind will be required as trade, investment and economic imbalances must be corrected.
If this is the case, any new oil spike will be less severe for the global economy than it was last time.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)