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Iran and the U.S. face each other without a Plan B when nuclear redlines collide

Three Iranian sources stated on Tuesday that the clerical leaders lack a clear plan in case efforts to settle a decades-long conflict fail.

Sources said that if negotiations fail due to clashing redlines, Iran could turn to China or Russia as "Plan B". However, with Beijing engaged in a trade war with Washington, and Moscow's war in Ukraine distracting it, Tehran's back-up plan seems shaky.

"Plan B" is to continue with the strategy prior to the start of the talks. Iran will not escalate tensions and is prepared to defend itself, a senior Iranian official stated.

The strategy includes strengthening relations with allies such as Russia and China.

Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, rejected the U.S. demand to stop uranium enrichment on Tuesday as "excessive" and "outrageous", warning that talks would not produce results.

Multiple obstacles remain after four rounds of negotiations aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Tehran will not ship its entire stockpile of highly enriched Uranium abroad, or even engage in talks about its ballistic missile program. This is according to two Iranian officials and an European diplomat.

A lack of trust between the two sides, and Donald Trump's decision in 2015 to withdraw from an accord with major world powers, has made it more important for Iran to get guarantees that Washington won't renege on any future agreement.

Iran's clerical leadership is facing a number of challenges - including energy and water shortages; a falling currency; military losses in the region and fears that Israel will attack its nuclear sites. These are all made worse by Trump's policies.

The sources stated that with Trump's rapid revival of his "maximum-pressure" campaign against Tehran, which includes tightened sanctions, military threats and other measures, Iran's leaders "have no better option" but to sign a new agreement in order to avoid economic chaos at home, which could threaten their rule.

The Islamic Republic has been exposed to anger by the public after protests against social repression, economic hardship and harsh crackdowns.

Iran's economy will not recover without lifting the sanctions that prevent free oil sales, and allowing access to funds. The second official said, as did others, due to the sensitive nature of this issue.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry was not available to comment immediately.

A THORNY TRAIL

Wendy Sherman, former U.S. The former U.S. Undersecretary of Political Affairs, who led the U.S. negotiation team that achieved the 2015 agreement between Tehran and six major world powers, stated that it was impossible to persuade Tehran to "dismantle their nuclear programme and to give up on their enrichment despite that being ideal".

She said: "That means that they will reach an impasse and that we could face war. I don't believe, quite frankly that President Trump is looking forward to that because he campaigned for a peace-oriented president."

Even if the enrichment dispute narrows, lifting of sanctions is still fraught. The U.S. favors gradual removal of nuclear-related restrictions, while Tehran insists on immediate removal.

Since 2018, sanctions have been imposed on dozens of Iranian institutions that are vital to the country's economy. These include its central bank, national oil company and other important Iranian institutions.

Sherman, when asked what Iran would do if the talks failed, said that Tehran "would continue to circumvent sanctions, and sell oil primarily to China, India, and perhaps others".

China has been Iran's main oil buyer, despite sanctions. This has helped to stave off the economic collapse. However, Trump's increased pressure on Chinese trade companies and tankers could threaten these exports.

Analysts warn of the limits to China and Russia's assistance. China may insist on lower prices for Iranian oil as the global demand for oil weakens.

Beijing and Moscow cannot protect Iran from unilateral U.S. or EU sanctions if talks fail - something both Tehran and Washington are hoping to avoid.

France, Britain, and Germany have warned that they will reimpose U.N. Sanctions if a deal is not reached quickly, despite the fact that they are not involved in the U.S. Iran talks.

According to the U.N. Resolution on the 2015 Nuclear Pact, the E3 has until October 18th to activate the "snapback" mechanism before the resolution expires.

Diplomats and an E3 document that was seen by may have to do this if a deal is not reached by August.

Diplomats warn getting a deal by then will mean, at best, a political framework similar to 2013 where both sides make some immediate concessions, giving time for more detailed negotiations.

A senior European official stated that "there is no reason" to believe it would take less time in comparison with the 18-month period of 2013. This is especially true when you consider the fact that the parameters and geopolitical environment are more complex now. (Written by Parisa hafezi and John Irish, edited by Stephen Coates).

(source: Reuters)