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Iran commits to nuclear treaty, oil falls
Oil futures dropped on Friday as Iran reaffirmed their commitment to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and amid expectations major producers will agree to increase their output this weekend. Brent crude futures fell 22 cents or 0.32% to $68.58 a barge by 0445 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 12 cents or 0.18% to $66.88. The U.S. Independence Day is a holiday. The U.S. news site Axios reported Thursday that the U.S. planned to meet with Iran to restart nuclear talks next week, while Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Tehran remains committed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The threat of renewed hostilities has been significantly reduced by the news on Thursday that the U.S. was preparing to resume its nuclear talks with Iran and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation between the U.N. Atomic Agency had not been stopped, said Vandana hari, founder of the oil market analysis company Vanda Insights. Araqchi made his comments a day after Tehran passed a law that suspended cooperation with the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Hari stated that "but the price correction might have to wait until Monday, when U.S. reopens after a long weekend, and takes into account Sunday's OPEC+ decisions, which are likely to be another 411, 000 barrels per daily target increase in August." Four delegates told Reuters that OPEC+ - the world's biggest group of oil producers - is planning to increase production by 411,000 bpd for August in order to regain market shares. As the 90-day hiatus on increased levy rates nears its end, there is renewed uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy. Washington will begin sending letters to other countries this Friday, detailing the tariff rates that they will be facing on goods shipped to the United States. This is a significant shift from previous pledges to negotiate dozens of trade agreements. Donald Trump, before leaving for Iowa on Thursday, told reporters that tariffs of 20-30% would be applied to 10 countries. Trump's 90 day pause in raising U.S. Tariffs ends on the 9th of July, and many large trading partners are yet to sign trade agreements. This includes the European Union and Japan. Treasury Department: The U.S. announced sanctions against Hezbollah and a network of smugglers who smuggle Iranian oil in Iraqi oil. Media reports say that Prince Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi Arabian Minister of Defense, met President Trump at the White House to discuss deescalation efforts against Iran. Trump said Thursday that he will meet with Iranian representatives "if necessary". Barclays also raised its Brent crude oil forecast for 2025 by $10 per barrel to $70, and by $6 per barrel to $72 for 2026 due to an improved outlook on demand. Mohi Nairayan reported from New Delhi, and Florence Tan from Singapore. Arathy Sommesekhar contributed additional reporting in Houston. Tom Hogue edited the story.
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Indonesian nickel miners ask government to keep mining quota for three years
The Indonesian nickel miners association APNI urged the Indonesian government on Friday to continue mining quotas for three years, to maintain a consistent climate of business. The Mining Minister said on Wednesday that the government intends to reduce the duration of mining quotas (also known as RKABs) to one year in order to better control the supply and support the prices of commodities like coal and nickel. The resource-rich nation extended the validity of quotas to three years in order to reduce the burden on authorities and applicants. Companies are still able to make revisions to their respective quotas every year. APNI said on Friday that while it appreciated efforts to sustain mining, reducing quotas would create bottlenecks for the approval process because thousands of miners would have to apply for quotas each year. "The government must strengthen its internal evaluation and supervision capacity, rather than lengthening the bureaucratic chains with shorter licensing terms," APNI stated in a press release. It said that a medium-term plan is essential for planning and investment. In a late-night statement, the ministry reiterated its plan to maintain price stability and mitigate the impact of price decreases on government revenues. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Additional reporting by Hongmei LI; Reporting by Fransiska Naangoy)
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US Environmental Agency puts 139 employees on Leave after criticizing Trump's Policies
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has placed 139 employees in administrative leave following a letter they signed criticizing President Donald Trump's policy. The letter, titled "Declaration of Dissent," was made public this week. The letter accused the federal agency of "harmful deregulation," of "ignoring scientific consensus in order to benefit polluters," and of "promoting a climate of fear." The letter was sent as another round of expected staff reductions is looming and as the agency undergoes major reorganization. This includes the dissolution and cancellation of millions of dollars of grants and its office of Research. The letter was signed by hundreds of EPA employees, both current and those who had recently been terminated. As of Thursday evening, the public version of this letter had removed the names of signatories. Before it was made public, an earlier version of this letter was sent internally to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a policy of zero tolerance for career bureaucrats who illegally undermine, sabotage, and undercut the agenda of the administration, the EPA stated in a Thursday statement. The EPA said the letter misleads public about the agency's business. It also placed 139 employees, pending investigation, on administrative leave for signing the letters using their official titles. The EPA reorganization consolidates several key offices to reflect plans to reduce regulatory red tape and encourage more fossil fuel energy developments, as laid down in Trump's Executive Orders. Employees of the National Institutes of Health sent a similar statement to their director in June to protest politicalization of research and disruption of science progress. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast in Washington. Kanishka Singh is the Washington correspondent.
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Brazil Plans Additional Offshore Oil Auction for 2025
Brazil plans to hold an additional oil auction this year for uncontracted areas in the pre-salt offshore region after Senate approval of legislation that clears the way for the sale, a senior energy official said on Wednesday.The government aims to boost revenue to meet this year's fiscal targets after Congress overturned a presidential decree to increase financial transaction tax on certain operations, cutting an estimated 12 billion reais ($2.2 billion) from projected revenue this year.State-run oil company PPSA will hold the oil auction this year, said Pietro Mendes, secretary for Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels at the Ministry of Mines and Energy, in a social media post. Mendes also chairs the board of state-run oil company Petrobras.PPSA is responsible for selling the portion of oil that companies producing under sharing contracts in pre-salt oilfields must hand over to the government under Brazilian law.Government sources had previously estimated the auction could raise between 15 billion and 20 billion reais.The measure gained Senate approval on Tuesday, having already been passed by the lower house, and now awaits presidential sanction.Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron had indicated that, with full congressional backing, gains from the auction could be included in the government's next bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, due by July 22.($1 = 5.4269 reais)(Reuters - Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Editing by David Goodman)
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Trump signss order raising national park fees for foreign tourists
The President Donald Trump signed a directive on Thursday that will increase the entrance fees for foreign visitors to U.S. National Parks, even though his administration is trying to reduce national park spending by over a third. The White House announced in a press release that the additional revenue from higher fees for foreign tourists would raise hundreds of millions to fund conservation and maintenance projects. The order does not specify how much the fee will increase or when it will be implemented. The agency did not specify how many of its 433 park units will be affected. Admission fees are charged at only 100 of the Park Service's sites. The order also directs that the Park Service give priority to U.S. citizens in its reservation or permit systems. The statement stated that U.S. citizens pay more to visit scenic natural wonders, historic landmarks, and other national parks than foreign tourists because they are required to pay admission fees, as well as contribute a portion of the tax revenue from the U.S. The statement continued, "International tourists are charged higher fees for entrance to national parks around the world." The Trump administration proposed to cut more than $1 billion in the Park Service's budget for fiscal 2026. This would be a reduction of over a third from the previous year. Cuts to federal employees have already worsened the staffing shortage in national park across the nation. The National Parks Conservation Association (a watchdog and advocacy group) released an analysis Wednesday that showed the permanent staffing of the Park Service has decreased by 24% since Trump's January inauguration. Only 4,500 out of the 8,000 season workers the administration had promised for this summer were hired. The NCPA stated that reduced staff levels in some national parks including Yosemite National Park in California and Big Bend National Park in Texas have led to closures, reduced programs and hindered emergency response activities. In recent years, visitors have continued to flood into national parks at record numbers. Admissions last year reached a new high, a whopping 331 million, an increase of 6 million since 2023.
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Asian stocks tumble, dollar edged down as tariff deadline focused
As President Donald Trump's trade deadline looms next week, most Asian equity markets struggled Friday, despite overnight record highs on Wall Street. As traders weighed the implications of Trump's sweeping spending bill, the dollar lost some of its gains from Thursday. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.3% at 0152 GMT, after trading in the early hours saw gains and losses. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.3% while mainland Chinese blue-chips edged lower. Taiwan's equity index lost its early gains and fell by 0.2%. South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 1%. The U.S. S&P futures index dipped by 0.2% after the cash index had risen overnight by 0.8% to reach a new closing high. Wall Street will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day. Investors cheered on a surprising robust jobs report, sending all three main U.S. equity indices soaring in a short session. The House approved Trump's 869-page signature bill after the vote ended. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, this would add $3.4 trillion dollars to the $36.2 trillion national debt. Trump said that he will also start sending letters to his trade partners, stating their tariff rates. Deals are still elusive before the deadline of July 9. After announcing an agreement with Vietnam on Tuesday, the U.S. president said that he expects "a few" more agreements to be added to the framework agreements signed with China and Britain. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that an agreement with India was close. The White House had once said that agreements with Japan and South Korea would be announced as soon as possible. However, it appears these deals have fallen through. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said that the lack of confidence in the market for the deals was responsible for the weakness of equity markets around the world, especially Japan and South Korea. Sycamore stated that the jobs data on Thursday showed "the U.S. Economy is holding up better than most people anticipated, which indicates to me that markets could easily continue to perform better from here." The data on jobs led traders to abandon any expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in this month. The U.S. Dollar rallied on Thursday, rising as high as 0.7% against a basket major counterparts before it pared back its gains to finish the session at 0.4%. The U.S. dollar gave up some of its gains early on Friday. It fell 0.2% to 144.62 Japanese yen, and 0.1% to 0.7942 Swiss Franc. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1766 while the sterling traded unchanged at $1.3650. The U.S. Treasury Bond market is closed on Friday due to the holiday. However, 10-year yields increased 4.7 basis points to 4.34% and the 2-year yield rose 9.3 bps at 3.882%. Gold rose 0.1%, to $3329.54 an ounce. Brent crude futures climbed 1 cent to $68.81 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 3 cents to $70.73. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; Kevin Buckland)
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Weekly gain in gold heads as US tax cut bill fuels fiscal concerns
Gold was up slightly on Friday and is expected to gain a lot this week as the tax-cutting bill for President Donald Trump passed through Congress. This has raised concerns about fiscal matters. As of 0221 GMT, spot gold increased 0.1%, to $3,329.67 an ounce. Bullion has risen 1.7% in the last week. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.1% to $3,339.30. Trump's tax cut legislation cleared the final hurdle of the U.S. Congress Thursday. It will fund Trump's immigration crackdown and make permanent his 2017 tax cuts. He also promised new tax breaks during his campaign for 2024. Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said that this bill would be "bad for the dollar" and "bullish for gold" in the long run. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the legislation would add $3,4 trillion to the nation's debt of 36,2 trillion dollars over a ten-year period. The labor market data released on Thursday revealed that U.S. companies added more than expected 147,000 jobs in the month of June, and that the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.1%. This strengthened the argument for the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Trump announced on Friday that he would start sending out letters containing tariff rates for imports, a departure from his earlier promises to negotiate individual deals. Meir stated that "if Trump insists on July 9 as a date of no return and he imposes tariffs again, we will see the dollar weakening and gold could move higher." Trump announced reciprocal duties of 10%-50% on April 2. He later reduced the rates to 10% for most countries until July 9, to allow time for negotiations. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $36.66 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.7%, to $1376.67, and palladium dropped 0.6%, to $1130.60. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Weekly gains in copper; US tariffs could be on the horizon
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) saw copper prices rise for the second consecutive week on Friday despite minor fluctuations. Traders were also watching for possible U.S. import tariffs. The LME's three-month copper added 0.06% at $9,960 a metric ton as of 0106 GMT. This week it has risen by 0.85%. Meanwhile, the SHFE's most traded copper contract eased 0.31%, to 80,510 Yuan ($11231.24). It is up 1.02% for the week. The dollar has strengthened as the United States is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, despite better than expected payrolls and unemployment figures. Also, the "big beautiful bill" has passed and the attention of the copper markets has shifted back to possible U.S. import tariffs. Two analysts in China have dismissed the significance of recent increases in copper stocks In warehouses registered with the LME. Three consecutive days, from July 3 to 7, the volume increased by 3,700 tonnes or 4.1% after a gradual decline since mid-April. A metals analyst from a Shanghai futures company stated that "Copper will continue to be shipped into the U.S. as long as the U.S. Tariff is not finalized." On Thursday, the COMEX copper price premium was around $1300 per ton, and metal that had been earmarked for LME warehouses to be released, or canceled warrants totaled 31,900 tons. LME Nickel fell 0.33% at $15,400 per ton, and zinc dropped 0.31% at $2,742. SHFE nickel rose 0.75%, to 122400 yuan per ton. Lead increased 0.12%, to 17,280, and tin gained 0.08%, to 2692,20. Aluminium fell 0.12% to 20660 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 0600 Germany Industrial orders MM, Manufacturing O/P Cur Price SA Consumer Goods SA Mai 0830 UK S&P Global PMI: MSC Composite - Output June ($1 = 7,1684 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Sumana Niandy; Reporting by Hongmei Li)
Goldman Sachs raises 2025, 2026 average Brent forecast
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent Oil price forecast for 2019 and 2026 due to lower commercial inventories at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. This has led to a tighter oil supply. Goldman Sachs said that it has increased its Brent oil forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $78 and $73 respectively (from $76 previously). It also expects a $80 peak between April and May 2025.
Wall Street Bank said that the forecast for OECD's commercial stock in 2025-2026 was lowered. This is mainly due to lower than expected oil supply from non-OPEC nations, excluding the U.S. The current OECD estimate has been reduced by 48 million barrels a day.
Goldman Sachs has said that Brent oil could temporarily reach $93 per barrel if sanctions on Iran and Russia result in the supply of crude oil falling by 1,000,000 barrels a day.
Joe Biden, the former U.S. president, imposed the most comprehensive package of sanctions against Russia's oil revenues and gas revenues earlier this month. This was done to give Kyiv, and Donald Trump's government, leverage to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.
The bank stated that Brent could fall to low $60s by 2026 under a scenario of a universal 10% tariff.
Trump has promised universal tariffs at 10% on all U.S. imported goods. The new president announced on Thursday that he will decide soon whether or not to exclude Canadian oil and Mexican oil imports when he imposes the 25% tariffs on Saturday.
Brent crude was trading at around $77 per barrel on Friday. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
(source: Reuters)