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Trump trades shine, China information darkens

A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and international markets by Harry Robertson

From U.S. small-cap stocks to bitcoin to the dollar, some investors are seeking out assets that can succeed under a 2nd Donald Trump presidency.

The former president has taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets, although Harris held a. minimal lead in a Reuters/Ipsos survey this week.

So-called Trump trades concentrate on those parts of the worldwide. economy likely to feel the force of tariff hikes, deregulation,. and bigger deficits.

The Mexican peso, for example, is down 4% from its. September high as investors worry about tariffs. Shares in Trump. Media & & Innovation Group are up more than 140% given that. Sept. 23.

Some experts see the Trump result in the recent rise in. bond yields and the dollar. The trouble is separating. politics from economics.

Information on Thursday revealed U.S. retail sales increased 0.4% in. September, more than expected, while weekly jobless claims. fell unexpectedly.

Treasury yields increased as investors somewhat moderated their. bets on further Federal Reserve rate cuts, enhancing the dollar .

The figures reinforced hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, assisting the Dow Jones index struck a record high. and keeping the S&P 500 near a record too.

S&P 500 futures were greater on Friday, while European. stocks climbed up - tech companies in specific.

Netflix added to a broadly positive start to the. third-quarter earnings season on Thursday, topping customer. targets.

Oil costs held steady on Friday even after. Hezbollah said it would escalate its dispute with Israel. following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

CHINESE DEVELOPMENT SLOWS

While the U.S. economy hums, China's sputters, a minimum of by. its requirements.

Data on Friday showed China's economy grew at the slowest. speed since early 2023 in the 3rd quarter. It broadened 4.6% in. July-September, above a 4.5% projection in a Reuters survey but. below the 4.7% speed in the second quarter.

Commercial output and retail sales rose and beat. expectations, however the property sector stayed stuck in a. decline.

Chinese stocks jumped 3.6%, however, as financiers. were focused on the start of 2 of Beijing's stimulus procedures. that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($ 112.38. billion) into the equity market.

Europe has actually been feeling the impacts of China's slowdown,. with weakness in Germany one of the aspects pressing the European. Reserve bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%. on Thursday.

The space in between U.S. and euro zone benchmark German bond. yields leapt to its greatest considering that late June as. financiers relocated to price in more ECB cuts.

Secret developments that must supply more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:

* U.S. incomes include American Express and Procter &&. Gamble

* U.S. real estate starts and building permits information

* Fed authorities Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller are. due to speak, while Neel Kashkari moderates a panel

(source: Reuters)