Latest News

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Blunt Powell indicates rate cut plans on ice

A take a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

There's no doubt there's a doubt about any U.S. rate of interest cuts this year.

After weeks of market nervousness about stalling U.S. disinflation amidst still-brisk economic growth, Federal Reserve leading brass are making clear that this year's rate cut plans are on ice until more notice.

Even though Fed policymakers seemed to re-affirm their expectation of as numerous as 3 quarter-point cuts in 2024 as recently as last month, the image has actually shifted significantly considering that.

Echoing a series of comparable soundings from his colleagues in recent days, Fed Chair Jerome Powell late on Tuesday stated persistent inflation and a still-strong U.S. economy implied restrictive policy required more time to work.

The current information have actually plainly not offered us greater confidence and rather show that it's most likely to take longer than expected to accomplish that confidence, Powell told an online forum in Washington, in what is most likely to be his last public appearance before the April 30-May 1 policy meeting.

Fed futures are taking the message on board, with as little as 40 basis points of reducing now priced for the entire year - less than two quarter-point cuts. Uncertainty about any rate cut before November's election has actually re-emerged and just 23bps of cuts are now in the rate by the Sept 18 meeting.

However the relatively modest reaction of stocks and bonds so far to Powell's blunt message shows the extent to which rate cut doubts had currently been sown in markets.

Two-year Treasury yields quickly topped 5% again, but have slipped back to 4.95% early on Wednesday.

The latest global fund manager survey from Bank of America showed a massive 20-percentage-point drop in overall allowances to bonds - the greatest monthly fall because 2003-- leaving property managers registering a net underweight position of 14%.

The level of U.S. economic outperformance, highlighted by March retail and industry soundings this week that put the Atlanta Fed's 'GDPNow' price quote for first-quarter growth simply shy of 3%, was highlighted by the International Monetary Fund's. latest international projections.

The Fund now anticipates the U.S. economy to broaden 2.7% this. year - some 1.2 percentage points higher than it forecast 6. months ago.

The Fed's so-called 'Beige Book' of the latest financial. conditions is due for release later on Wednesday. And news on. Tuesday of a sharp drop in housing starts last month cut through. the heat registered in other places.

With first-quarter corporate incomes streaming in, U.S. stocks mostly took the Powell punch on the chin so far too.

The S&P 500 closed in the red for the 3rd straight. session and hit its most affordable in almost two months - however the. decline on the day was a modest 0.2% and futures are a little. firmer ahead of today's bell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually rose on the. day as UnitedHealth's upbeat quarterly outcomes lifted. its stock more than 5%.

However, even with eyes back on regional bank profits once again on. Wednesday following in 2015's disruption, indicated stock. volatility captured by the VIX slipped back a tad to 18.

Although Middle East stress loom large in the background,. U.S. petroleum costs stayed constant at $85 per barrel.

The dollar has actually been a huge beneficiary of the Fed. rethink in recent weeks - however it too fell back a touch from. five-month highs over night.

One chauffeur of the dollar was the idea that other main. banks would go on and relieve policy anyway, no matter Fed. hesitation.

European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde, for instance,. seemed to double down on Tuesday on prepare for June ECB cut.

However above-forecast British inflation for March - even though. core inflation rates there did be up to their most affordable in more than. 2 years - may provide some notes of caution from the Bank of. England.

Overseas stocks were blended on Wednesday, with China's. bourses outshining in Asia as the country's leading securities. regulator clarified the new delisting rules to calm the marketplace. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said late on Tuesday. that tighter guidelines would not trigger a wave of delistings.

The yuan also firmed up from Tuesday's 2024 low.

In Europe, ASML dropped 4.8%, steering a 1.8%. decline in the technology sector, after the Dutch company. reported weaker-than-expected new reservations in its first-quarter. profits. However LVMH rose 2% after the world's largest. luxury group's quarterly sales increased 3%. Secret journal products that may offer instructions to U.S. markets later on. on Wednesday:

* US business earnings: US Bancorp, People Financial,. Travelers, Discover Financial, CSX, Equifax, Prologis, Abbott. Laboratories, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, Las Vegas Sands. * Federal Reserve issues Beige Schedule on financial conditions, United States. Treasury releases TIC data on abroad Treasury holdings. * International Monetary Fund/World Bank Spring conferences begin,. IMF launches Global Fiscal Display. * Fed Board Guv Michelle Bowman and Cleveland Fed President. Loretta Mester speak; European Reserve bank board members Isabel. Schnabel and Piero Cipollone speak; Bank of England governor. Andrew Bailey and BoE policymakers Jonathan Haskel and Megan. Greene speak. * United States Treasury sells 20-year bonds

(source: Reuters)