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Sources warn that India is bracing for an unusually warm March. Wheat and rapeseed are at risk.

Two weather bureau sources said that India will likely record its warmest March ever, with temperatures above average forecast for 'key wheat and rapeseed growing states, which could reduce yields.

India, the world's?second-largest producer of wheat? and?biggest consumer?of edible oil, is counting upon bumper crops in 2026 to export excess wheat and reduce costly imports such as palm, sunflower, and soy oils.

The higher temperatures at the critical stages of grain filling and maturation could reduce yields. This would lower overall production, which was expected to hit a record.

The demand for electricity is expected to increase in March due to the higher temperatures.

"The maximum and minimum temperatures in the northern and north-western state are likely to be above average for March," said an official at the India Meteorological Department. The official did not want to be named before the official announcement by the weather office.

IMD will release its March temperature forecast?later in the week. It did not respond immediately to a question about the forecast for March temperatures.

The official stated that maximum temperatures are expected to be up to 7 degrees Celsius higher than normal in Punjab and Haryana as well as Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Madhya Pradesh in March.

Over 80% of India's total wheat production and rapeseed is produced in these states.

Winter crops such as chickpeas and rapeseed are planted between October and December. They require cold weather conditions to grow optimally.

India had to ban wheat exports in 2022 due to the shrivelling of wheat crops during a warm March and February.

Heat stress could be exacerbated by persistent temperatures above normal in the first half of March, according to Ashwini Bansod. She is vice president for commodities at Phillip Capital India.

Indian farmers planted wheat and rapeseed in record numbers this year.

The second official from the IMD said that the day temperatures will?start to rise in the next few weeks and by the end March, maximum temperatures may exceed 40 degrees Celsius. (Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

(source: Reuters)