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India's coal sector sees big leaps in output and need: Russell

India's coal sector is unified about one thing. It does not matter if you are a miner, trader, energy or steelmaker, you are bullish, extremely bullish.

The overarching theme at today annual Coaltrans India conference in the western state of Goa is that coal production, imports and need are all going to rise in coming years, and by substantial volumes.

India might have dedicated to eventually beginning to stage down usage of the contaminating fuel on its roadway to net-zero emissions by a targeted 2070, however for the coming years the coal market sees a ramp up.

Even the most mindful of forecasts at the conference saw need for all grades of coal reaching 1.5 billion metric loads by 2030, with some reaching as high as 1.9 billion

To put that in context, India's coal need was 1.23 billion. tons, made up of domestic production of 964 million loads and imports of around 266 million.

Put another way, even the more pessimistic of forecasts anticipates an increase of almost 300 million lots of coal need in India in the next 6 years, an increase of 25%.

To put the scale of the boost in context, 300 million loads is more than the total annual need of Germany, the fourth-biggest coal-consuming country after China, India and the United States.

The optimism over coal's future in India's energy mix is largely constructed on a shift in the thinking about the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to prioritise energy security and domestic resources over minimizing carbon emissions to alleviate climate modification.

The thinking is that India has massive reserves of coal, which it can mine reasonably inexpensively, and if it continues to purchase infrastructure, it can move the coal from where it is produced to where it will be burnt in power plants and factories.

The more the world's most-populous country can utilize domestic energy, the less it needs to spend for expensive imports in the form of crude oil and melted natural gas.

Although crude oil and its refined items do not contend with coal in power generation, they may increasingly in the future as the shift to electrical lorries gathers speed.

India's commercial users of coal, such as cement and ceramics, are also being motivated to take a look at utilizing gas produced from coal to power their plants, instead of imported coking coal, met coke and LNG.

INSUFFICIENT RENEWABLES

Another factor worth noting about the bullish view of India's coal sector is that they believe in the strong growth scenario despite the fact that the South Asian country is increase the deployment of renewable resources such as wind, solar, battery storage and pumped hydropower.

India is most likely to surpass its target for 500 gigawatts ( GW) of renewable energy capacity by 2030, however the demand for electricity is most likely to surpass the capability additions.

This implies India will continue to increase its fossil fuel generation, and lion's share of this will be coal, with 85 GW of new plants currently under building and construction and likely to come online by 2030, which would increase coal-fired capability by just over one-third from the current 237 GW.

Steelmakers are likewise poised to increase demand for coal, the key raw material used to turn iron ore into crude steel.

India produced about 140 million lots of steel in 2023, and the government is targeting that to increase to 300 million by 2030.

That figure is most likely optimistic, but it's possible that the nation can produce more than 200 million heaps in that time frame, according to a number of steel makers present at the Coaltrans event.

India's steel and sponge iron sectors imported about 93 million lots of coal in 2023, and consultants iEnergy Natural Resources approximate this will rise to 135 million by 2030.

If there was any disagreement on the outlook for India's. coal sector at the conference, it was the likely future mix of. domestic production and imports.

India doesn't produce significant volumes of coking coal, so. any boost in steel production is most likely to increase in greater. imports of coking coal and satisfied coke, a beneficiated product made. generally from coking coal, however can contain some lower quality. grades.

The primary dispute is whether a mix of state-controlled. leviathan Coal India and newly-operating private coal. mines will have the ability to raise output enough to displace imported. thermal coal for the power sector.

India is investing greatly in enhancing the rail system to. transportation coal, but it's still likely that seaside power plants. in the south and west of the sub-continent will rely on imported. fuel for years to come.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)