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Russell: Iran's response to D-Day sanctions is crucial.

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, invoked the 1944 D-Day landings of Allied forces in?France when announcing sanctions against Iran.

The measures taken are superior to the much less successful Anzio Beachhead landing in Italy, which was another amphibious landing during World War II.

Anzio was a battle that began with a successful landing of the Allies, but a lack of leadership led to the campaign stalling and turning into a long campaign of attrition.

Bessent’s new measures are designed to choke Iran economically. They target companies and countries that do business with Iran in five different sectors: digital assets, technology and gold, aviation, and shipping.

Bessent, rather than go for broke upfront, is warning countries that they must work with the United States to maintain access to the global financial system based on the dollar.

The new measures are therefore more of a danger than they are a reality.

Even if these plans do come to fruition, there is doubt as to whether or not they are severe enough to force the Iranian rulers to surrender. Or if they will even be effective in forcing a desperate Iranian population to rise up and successfully overthrow its clerical leaders.

Iran has shown its ability to get around sanctions by setting up front companies and working closely with allies like China.

Beijing is unlikely to agree to any U.S. sanction, so Bessent will have to be prepared to impose measures on Chinese refiners and shippers, traders and banks. This may be a level that Washington would be reluctant to pursue.

The new sanctions confirm that a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict remains a "distant" option. They also reinforce the belief of the Trump administration that some sort of victory is still achievable.

History teaches us that when both sides are confident they can still win a war and believe time is on their side then the conflict will continue.

IRANIAN RESPONSE

How Iran reacts will determine the future of energy markets.

Iran's social media messages have been aggressive, but it has not yet renewed missile and drone attacks against energy and other infrastructure within Gulf nations that host U.S. bases such as Kuwait and Qatar.

Tehran also hasn't been able fully to close the Strait of Hormuz. While there's some disagreement over the volume of crude that moves through the narrow waterway the important thing is it isn't zero. Every barrel that passes through lessens Iran’s leverage.

Iran also feels the pain of the U.S. port blockade, which is far more effective than sanctions.

According to Kpler, data from commodity analysts shows that Iran exported 1.75 million barrels of crude per day in the three-month period leading up to U.S. and Israeli attacks on February 28.

The crude oil demand has fallen to 255,000 bpd, from 893,000 in July. This is even lower than the 259,000 bpd of May, the lowest level since May 2020.

Bessent and Trump have a problem because the more effective their economic and blockade sanctions are, the more Iran is compelled to retaliate with all the military weapons it has at its disposal.

If Iran's leadership sees itself in an existential struggle, it is unlikely that they will accept being economically throttled and not try to take back the initiative by attacking infrastructure and vessels throughout the Gulf.

Crude oil prices will likely remain high due to the uncertainty surrounding Iran's reaction.

Brent futures, the global benchmark, fell 2.4% to $92.17 per barrel on Monday after Bessent announced his decision.

This is still 31% more than the $70.14 per barrel that they dropped to in the short ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., which lasted mid-June through early July.

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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)

(source: Reuters)